When fantasy managers are picking as high as No. 4 in fantasy football drafts, the good news is that there really isn’t a bad way to go with your pick. Whether it be running back or wide receiver, there should be elite players to choose from at each position.
Now, can you make the right decision and be on your way to putting together a winning fantasy team? That remains to be seen.
But to help those fantasy managers, here are some thoughts on what you should do when you are picking No. 4.
Which Players Should You Consider Picking No. 4 Overall?
WHO SHOULD BE WHICH PICK?: 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
The fourth overall pick in 1QB fantasy football drafts is where things really start to get interesting. Assuming your draft starts with Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb in some order, you have the choice of a couple of RBs or three WRs. The two RBs to choose between are Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson.
Hall put together an excellent year in his return from his injury-hampered rookie season. He finished second in PPR scoring with 994 rushing yards and 591 receiving yards. The receiving really boosted his fantasy value, with a combined 159.1 fantasy points coming from that area of his game.
The positive is that despite finishing as the RB2 last year, Hall really does have growth potential in his game. Per TruMedia, he averaged just 1.04 yards before contact per rush last year, which ranked 30th in the league. That meant he was relying on his ability after contact, a split in which he averaged 3.41 yards per rush (fourth in the league).
If the OL can just buy him even 0.1 more yards before contact over the course of 200 carries, we are talking about another 20 yards and potentially better angles from which to hit the proverbial home run. Additionally, he has Aaron Rodgers next to him, which will cause the defense to respect the passing game more than in 2023 considering the future Hall of Famer’s ability to read defenses and put Hall in position to succeed.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
In Robinson, you are buying into him, taking the next step before it actually happens. We saw flashes of the talent that Robinson possesses in his rookie year. However, his production seemed to be stunted by both the offensive play-calling and personnel choices.
This season, the Falcons offense will likely look a lot different, and there seems to be more impetus to get Robinson the ball. In 2023, he had 214 carries and 58 receptions, both of which feel like a floor for 2024. Based on that production, he finished as the RB9 in PPR, so there is definitely a case for him to be a top-three RB this year.
Of the players who finished above Robinson in PPR, only Raheem Mostert had fewer carries, with both Mostert and Kyren Williams having fewer touches. However, both of those players scored 15+ touchdowns compared to eight for Robinson.
Atlanta was one of the least efficient red-zone offenses (46.8%; 29th) and the least efficient in goal-to-go situations (48.1%). There is really only one way to go from there with a new offensive staff in town.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
While CeeDee Lamb has been a training camp holdout, Ja’Marr Chase chose to be a hold-in. With a training camp roster bonus of nearly $4 million on the line, Chase decided to show up but not participate in the practices.
However, if you’re not concerned with Lamb’s holdout in terms of his fantasy football production, there’s probably no reason to be concerned with Chase’s situation.
And on the field, Chase continues to get better. With an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow throwing the ball, Chase has been able to elevate his game each season. And in 2023, Chase set a career high in targets (145), receptions (100) and catch percentage (69.0%).
However, not all of his numbers are improving. Although he finished with over 1,200 receiving yards (1,206) in 2023, his receiving-yards-per-game average (76.0) was the lowest of his three-season career.
In addition, his touchdowns have been in decline each season since he caught 13 touchdown passes in his rookie 2021 campaign.
Chase also plays in an AFC North Division with some quality defensive units. Both the Cleveland Browns (No. 1) and Baltimore Ravens (No. 6) ranked in the top 10 in pass defense (the Pittsburgh Steelers ranked 17th).
And in five total games vs. these three divisional opponents last season, Chase averaged 4.0 receptions and 36.4 receiving yards per game. Chase managed one touchdown reception total in those five games.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
It is really hard to doubt Justin Jefferson after the incredible start to his career, but the Minnesota Vikings offense is a concern. With Kirk Cousins gone, Sam Darnold will be under center for potentially the entire season now that J.J. McCarthy has been ruled out until 2025 due to meniscus surgery.
On a per-game basis last year, Jefferson was the WR5, averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game. The intriguing news for fantasy managers is that last year, Jefferson was basically the same player with Nick Mullens as he was when Cousins was on the field. With Mullens, Jefferson averaged 21.83 fantasy points per game, compared to 21.82 with Cousins. A relatively small sample size, but promising nonetheless.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown was a PPR machine last year, finishing as the WR3 both overall and on a per-game basis. However, it wasn’t just about volume; he was also a producer with the ball in his hands. Jared Goff consistently put St. Brown in a position to make plays, and the WR delivered.
Per Next Gen Stats, St. Brown’s expected yards after catch per reception was 4.7, comfortably ranking in the top half of the league. However, he averaged 5.8 yards after the catch per reception, demonstrating that the combination of Goff and St. Brown was extremely effective.
The question becomes whether St. Brown has the ceiling to be worth the No. 4 pick as the fourth WR off the board. Of the options here, he feels the safest, just because we know his QB situation is secure, and he has that solid PPR floor.
Who Should Go No. 4?
If one of McCaffrey, Lamb, or Hill falls to you here, you are taking them beyond a shadow of a doubt. However, if the draft goes to chalk and those three are gone, you have a tough choice to make.
Whatever you do, you are essentially drafting a player at his ceiling, which is never ideal. Therefore, you have a choice to make. Swing for the upside of someone who could be the top player at their position, or play it safe, or at least safer. The safest option here is probably St. Brown, just because we know what he provides on a consistent basis.
At WR, Jefferson and Chase are the upside plays. We know both have WR1 capability, but can they achieve it and perform on a consistent basis? If Burrow stays healthy, Chase is probably the best option, but Burrow’s health is far from guaranteed. Can Jefferson do what he did with Mullens while working with Darnold over a full season? Tough to guarantee.
If you want to go WR in a PPR format, St. Brown is the play for me. In non-PPR, it leans more towards Jefferson or Chase, just because that PPR floor is not there for St. Brown each week.
At RB, Hall is the play here over Robinson. We already saw Hall achieve RB2 status in less-than-ideal conditions. He’s now in a significantly improved situation and should continue to build on what we saw in 2023. Meanwhile, Robinson has all the upside in the world, but can he take that leap to a top-three RB in a new offensive system?
