The 2024 NFL regular season will come to an end in Week 18. Although some games will be virtually meaningless, a lot will be at stake when certain teams take the field this weekend.
While a few franchises have decided to rest their starters this week, most teams will approach this like any other week (and some are treating it like a playoff game since it’s win or go home). Let’s examine which teams are still battling for a playoff spot, fighting for a division title, or jockeying for postseason seeding in Week 18.
Which NFL Games Matter in Week 18?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints have no hope of making it to the playoffs, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a lot at stake in their final regular-season game. They need to win to clinch the NFC South title, and this is their only route to a playoff spot.
The Buccaneers can also earn the NFC’s No. 3 seed if they win and the Los Angeles Rams lose to the Seattle Seahawks. Also, if Mike Evans catches five passes and records 85 receiving yards, he will earn a $3 million bonus for reaching 70 receptions and 1,000 yards.
If the Bucs lose and the Atlanta Falcons defeat the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay will be watching the postseason from home.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
With the AFC’s No. 1 seed already locked up, the Kansas City Chiefs will rest their starters against the Denver Broncos in Week 18.
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This is great news for the Broncos, who need a victory against the reigning Super Bowl champions to secure a playoff birth as the No. 7 seed.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks are already out of the playoffs race and have nothing much to play for (beyond pride and some contract incentives, which we’ll get to in a bit).
However, if the Rams win this game, they can secure the No. 3 seed in the NFC. If they lose and the Bucs defeat the Saints, Los Angeles will fall to the No. 4 seed.
Interestingly, the Rams are resting their starters in this game, including Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams. Head coach Sean McVay recently said he doesn’t care about the playoff seeding.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
As previously mentioned, the Falcons no longer control their own fate after losing in Week 17 against the Commanders.
Now, Atlanta will need help from the Buccaneers in order to win the NFC South and make the playoffs. But first, the Falcons need to defeat the Panthers or the Bucs’ outcome doesn’t matter.
Atlanta needs to defeat the already-eliminated Panthers and hope the Saints beat the Bucs.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Los Angeles Chargers have already clinched their spot in the playoffs, but they enter Week 18 with something that many believe is worth fighting for in terms of seeding. Since the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday, the Chargers can secure the No. 5 seed with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
The No. 5 seed offers a more desirable path through the AFC playoff picture, as the Chargers would face the Houston Texans in the Wild Card Round as opposed to the red-hot Baltimore Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
With an opportunity to lock up the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs, the Washington Commanders are playing to win against the Dallas Cowboys. Accordingly, all of their healthy starters are expected to start on Sunday.
MORE: Which NFL Teams Are Resting Their Starters in Week 18?
“We’re going to go after [it] as hard as we can. I think the seeding portion of this is really important, and that’s what we discussed as a team,” head coach Dan Quinn said. “We recognize having a six seed and going into the playoffs with that is a good thing. And so, we’re going to fight like hell to keep that.”
The Cowboys have already been eliminated from the postseason.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
The Miami Dolphins still have a shot at the playoff spot. They must win their game against the New York Jets and hope for a Broncos loss against the Chiefs. If the latter doesn’t happen, the Dolphins-Jets game will become meaningless.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are still battling for the No. 6 seed in the playoffs and will play their starters as a result.
However, they need some help in order to land the sixth spot. Not only do the Packers need to defeat the Chicago Bears, they also need the Cowboys to pull off an upset over the Commanders.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
The final game of the 2024 regular season is the most highly anticipated matchup of the week. Both the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have something to play for in this Sunday Night Football showdown.
The Lions and Vikings are the first teams in NFL history to both have 14+ wins and face off in the regular season.
This game is huge as the NFC North title and No. 1 seed in the conference are up for grabs. That means the winner gets a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the loser drops to the No. 5 seed.
Notable Contract Incentives in Week 18
Entering the final week of the season, the majority of eyes around the NFL will be on the playoff picture, but for some players, there are also financial incentives at stake.
With just one more game to hit contractual bonuses, we may see teams feed their players the ball to hit a certain number. Let’s examine some of the more notable NFL player incentives entering Week 18.
This is not an exhaustive list of incentives for Week 18. Additionally, some teams who rest players in the final weeks will later agree to a contract restructure to ensure the players get their money even if they do not hit their incentive.
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
Week 18 is huge for Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans.
If Evans catches five passes and records 85 receiving yards, he will earn a $3 million bonus for reaching 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards.
Evans is also trying to extend his NFL-record streak of 1,000-yard seasons to start a career. With 85 receiving yards, he would hit 1,000 yards for the 11th season in a row, tying Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in NFL history. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has said that he’ll try to get Evans past 1,000 yards.
Zach Ertz, TE, Commanders
Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz has three different incentives he could hit in Week 18 totaling $750,000:
- With nine receptions, he will earn $250,000.
- With 90+ receiving yards, he will earn $250,000.
- With two receiving TDs, he will earn $250,000.
Ertz already earned $750,000 in incentives during Washington’s Week 17 playoff-clinching win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith can earn $6 million in incentives during Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams:
- If he throws for 185 passing yards, he will earn a $2 million bonus.
- If he posts a 69.7% completion percentage, he will earn a $2 million bonus.
- If the Seahawks defeat the Rams, he will earn another $2 million bonus.
Seattle has been eliminated from the playoffs, so it will be interesting to see if they let Smith play the entire game and potentially earn these incentives.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has a pair of incentives he can hit in Week 18:
- If he catches nine passes, he will earn $250,000 yards.
- If he records 140 receiving yards, he will earn $250,000.
With that said, Kansas City has already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and head coach Andy Reid plans to rest many of his starters. It remains to be seen if Hopkins will play.
Tony Pollard, RB, Titans
Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard has two incentives he can hit in Week 18:
- If he rushes for 83 yards, he will earn $250,000.
- If he scores two rushing touchdowns, he will earn a $200,000 bonus.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers
If Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins rushes for 58 yards in Week 18, he will earn a $150,000 bonus.
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
If Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon rushes for 107 rushing yards in Week 18, he will earn $250,000.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
If Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton records 82 receiving yards in Week 18, he will earn a $500,000 bonus.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals
If Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray rushes for 50 yards and scores a rushing touchdown in Week 18, he will earn a $750,000 bonus.
Cooper Rush, QB, Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush will earn a $500,000 bonus if he plays 55% of the team’s snaps this season. He is currently at 52.5% of the snaps, so playing in Week 18 against the Washington Commanders could get him there.
There have been some rumblings that Trey Lance will see time under center in Week 18, potentially ruining Rush’s shot at this bonus. But even if Rush doesn’t get to 55%, he will still earn a $250,000 bonus for playing 45% of the Cowboys’ snaps.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Saints
If New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling scores a touchdown in Week 18, he will earn a $250,000 bonus.