The New York Jets were one of the most hyped teams throughout the 2024 season. The Jets went all in on ending the NFL‘s longest active playoff drought, with Aaron Rodgers returning from a torn Achilles and former teammate Davante Adams acquired via midseason trade.
But after a 5-12 flameout that saw middling offensive production, the Rodgers era appears to be at an end in New York. What’s the outlook for Rodgers, Adams, and the Jets in 2025?
Rodgers’ 2024 Season and Outlook
Rodgers finished 21st in PFN’s QB+ rankings with a 72.2 (C-) grade. On the season, Rodgers had a -0.02 EPA/DB (27th), ranked 36th from a clean pocket (0.07 EPA/DB), and converted just 33.5% of the time on third down (29th). His 6.2 nYPA ranked 30th and was very low, considering he’s getting 5.8 YAC/Cp, which ranks ninth this season.
This was actually an improvement over his last full season in 2022 with the Packers. That year, he graded out at a 68.0 (D+).
Beyond the QB+ numbers, Rodgers had a 2.5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, his third-worst in 16 seasons as a starter behind 2022 and 2008. That included a 4.8% touchdown rate, his third-lowest as a starter behind the 2019 and 2008 seasons.
Rodgers averaged a meager 0.07 EPA per dropback from clean pockets. That ranked 35th out of 36 qualifying QBs, ahead of only Will Levis. Part of the issue was Rodgers not really willing to hold the ball anymore. He had the sixth-fastest average time to throw in 2024 (2.59 seconds).
If he returns, Rodgers will play most of next season at age 41 (he turns 42 on Dec. 2). Only four quarterbacks have started double-digit games at age 41 or older:
- Tom Brady (five times)
- Drew Brees (2020)
- Brett Favre (2010)
- Warren Moon (1998)
Brees, Favre, and Moon’s age-41 campaigns were either their final season or the last time they were the primary starter for a team. Brady is the only quarterback to reach the Pro Bowl at age 41 or older.
Here are the contract implications of a Rodgers release or trade:
- $23.5 million cap hit for 2025 as currently scheduled
- If cut or traded before the option bonus is paid before the 2025 regular season, he’ll count for $49 million in dead money on the Jets’ cap.
- Acquiring team via trade would get a $9.5 million cap number this year but pay $37.5 million in cash and would have $28 million in dead money next year when the deal voids.
Jets Offense and Davante Adams
The Jets did improve with Rodgers on offense, but that was a low bar to clear. Below are the Jets’ rankings in Offense+ since the metric began in 2019:
- 2024: 72.7 (C-) – 19th
- 2023: 49.6 (F) – 32nd
- 2022: 61.1 (D-) – 31st
- 2021: 66.3 (D) – 26th
- 2020: 56.4 (F) – 32nd
- 2019: 56.6 (F) – 32nd
The Jets are one of five franchises that have never ranked in the league’s top half since Offense+ began. The New York Giants, Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, and Pittsburgh Steelers are the others.
Davante Adams is reportedly also a potential trade candidate. Here are the contract implications of a potential Adams move:
- $38.3M cap hit in 2025. Jets would save $29.9M against the cap by cutting or trading Adams before June 1 ($8.4M dead money hit).
- Unlike Rodgers, Adams would come with a significant cap hit for a team that trades for him. The 32-year-old has a $35.6M base salary for 2025.
The Insiders on @NFLGameDay with @MikeGarafolo, @TomPelissero and @judybattista: The #Jets are moving on from Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams is likely next; #Saints to decide on Derek Carr’s future soon; #Seahawks still believe in Geno Smith; A look at the changes to replay. pic.twitter.com/BSPHWcDasB
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 9, 2025
Adams got off to a slow start with the Las Vegas Raiders but saw his performance improve after reuniting with Rodgers. Adams averaged 2.17 yards per route with the Jets, an improvement over his 1.98 yards per route run in 2023 (his last full season with the Raiders).
For context, that 2.17 yards per route figure would have ranked 20th over the course of a full season, right behind Malik Nabers.
Rodgers and Adams have connected on 83 touchdowns (including playoffs), fifth-most by a duo all-time. They trail only Peyton Manning-Marvin Harrison (114), Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski (105), Steve Young-Jerry Rice (92), and Philip Rivers-Antonio Gates (90).
Potential Rodgers Fits
Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders did not hire Pete Carroll for a long rebuild. At 73 years old, Carroll is unlikely to be there for the long haul, which means the Raiders need to take a step to challenge sooner rather than later.
Picking sixth in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Raiders are unlikely to see either Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders fall to them. A trade-up to get either would be expensive, and there’s no guarantee it would be any more successful than a gamble on Rodgers.
Aidan O’Connell is under contract for 2025, and while he ended the season with a better QB+ than Rodgers, it was by 1.6 points and one spot in the rankings. Despite the recent struggles, Rodgers’ ceiling is higher.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are likely to move on from Will Levis, who was a negative-play machine in his second season. Most have assumed that the Titans will use the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft on their preferred quarterback.
However, Rodgers is affordable and could allow the Titans not to reach in a below-average quarterback class. Tennessee needs help all over the roster after ranking 27th in Offense+ and 22nd in Defense+. A true game-changer like Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter could enable the Titans to contend faster than expected after spending a significant amount on a veteran defense in 2024.
New York Giants
Could Rodgers continue to play his home games at MetLife Stadium? The Giants have a well-known quarterback hole but pick third overall in the draft. If Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders go off the board to the Titans and Browns, the Giants could be left without a good quarterback option.
However, Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen could be incentivized to take a swing on a veteran quarterback instead of waiting for a rookie to develop. Owner John Mara’s comments after the season made it clear that both Daboll and Schoen are on thin ice, which means they could opt for a win-now option in hopes of earning another season.
Rodgers would have more upside than just about any veteran quarterback option in free agency, except Sam Darnold (who also had a rough Jets stint). The Giants ranked 31st in Offense+, ahead of only the Browns, and will likely seek to add win-now talent to improve that side of the ball.
Wherever Nathaniel Hackett Lands
At this point, it’s clear that Rodgers has a very narrow group of preferred playcallers. The close relationship between Rodgers and Hackett is well-known, with the latter following the quarterback to New York after three years together in Green Bay.
Hackett won’t be a part of Aaron Glenn’s coaching staff in New York but could land somewhere else. It’s possible that Hackett could wait for Rodgers to find a destination before joining that team’s coaching staff, or the two could map out a franchise willing to employ both individuals.
The issue is that Hackett’s connections don’t seem to spell a likely match for Rodgers. He coached with Doug Marrone for three seasons on the Jaguars staff from 2016-18, but Marrone is now the offensive line coach for the New England Patriots. Rodgers seems unlikely to accept a backup role, and Drake Maye is the unquestioned starter in Foxboro.
A reunion in Green Bay is obviously not happening, and the Broncos are set with Bo Nix (and likely wouldn’t hire Hackett anyway after his disastrous head-coaching stint in 2022).
