Ever since LeSean McCoy left in 2019, the Buffalo Bills have been searching for their answer at running back. In NFL Insider Adam Caplan’s latest mock draft for Pro Football Network, he has the Bills selecting Texas running back Bijan Robinson at the end of the first round. What might a Bills’ offense featuring Robinson look like?
It Makes Sense for the Buffalo Bills To Draft Bijan Robinson
When most people hear that a team might draft a running back in Round 1, their natural instinct is to cringe. Surely, there’s a better use for a first-round pick. Typically, yes. But there are exceptions to every rule.
Of their list of draft picks, Buffalo’s first-round pick is No. 29 overall. It’s entirely possible that their preferred prospects are all gone by then.
General manager Brandon Beane then has to ask himself an important question. Would he rather draft an uncertain prospect at a more important position or take the unquestioned best prospect at a less important one?
I’m not one to ever endorse a first-round running back. But as one of the last pieces of a championship puzzle, it makes far more sense. Ever since Josh Allen’s ascent in 2020, the Bills have been one of the best offenses in football. They have the elite quarterback, a very good offensive line, and an elite WR1 in Stefon Diggs.
While Buffalo does have a need at wide receiver, with every little talent behind Diggs, this isn’t the strongest WR class. Who is likely to contribute more to this offense? A questionable wide receiver talent? Or a generational running back?
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Since McCoy’s departure, the Bills have drafted a running back on Day 2 in three of the past four drafts. 2019 third-round pick Devin Singletary was solid but ultimately expendable. And after letting him walk last month, he ultimately signed with the Texans.
Zack Moss, a 2020 third-round selection, was a poor prospect and a very suspect pick. Initially, Buffalo tried to push Moss over Singletary but quickly realized he simply wasn’t good enough. They benched him and subsequently traded him to the Colts last season.
Last year, the Bills took James Cook in the second round. Easily the best of the three, Cook showed promise as a rookie, but he’s not a three-down back. Most importantly, his presence should not give the Bills any pause over the significant upgrade Robinson would provide.
It would not be a shock, nor would it be an error, if the Bills decided they valued what Robinson offers over any of the receivers. Accordingly, he’s a very viable pick for them in the Round 1.
Robinson Would Add a Dynamic Element to the Bills’ Offense
Cook being a second-round pick gives him a little more clout than if he had gone in the third round. However, it’s hard to imagine the Bills spending a first-round pick on an RB to take him off the field for a specialist player like Cook.
We’ve seen this story, albeit with players drafted lower than Cook.
Chester Taylor was great for the 2006 Minnesota Vikings. That ceased to matter when they drafted Adrian Peterson in 2007. Tre Mason had a really nice rookie season in 2014. Yet, that went out the window when the Rams drafted Todd Gurley in 2015. Most recently, Michael Carter looked poised to be the Jets’ three-down back after a strong rookie year in 2021. It didn’t take long for him to become a full backup after the Jets drafted Breece Hall.
Cook deserves to be a 40-50% snap-share guy on an NFL roster. That just won’t be the case if the Bills draft Robinson.
The term “generational talent” often gets thrown around haphazardly. We’ve seen plenty of truly elite running backs over the past two decades. But I count exactly three generational talents: Peterson, Saquon Barkley, and Robinson.
The hype is real. Robinson is a can’t-miss prospect who would offer the Bills’ offense a dynamic weapon beyond Allen and Diggs. As an adept receiver with a 9.6% target share as a sophomore, Robinson would fit in just fine in Buffalo’s pass-first offense.
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Now, the Bills are not about to become a running team. Nor are they likely to run the ball more simply because they have a guy like Robinson. After all, this is a team with a 61% neutral-game-script pass rate last season. But what Robinson can and will do is greatly improve the efficiency of the Bills’ ground game.
At 215 pounds, Robinson is capable of powering in short runs near the goal line. Allen remains an elite goal-line option, but if he wants to avoid the fate of every running QB in NFL history — being done by age 33/34 — he’ll need to protect himself.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott undoubtedly knows how effective Allen is as a runner. He also knows the way Allen plays is unsustainable.
“I don’t think that’s a healthy way to play QB in this league, and it’s undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style, brand of football. We have to get that adjusted, and it’s never going to go completely away, but it has to get where it’s workable.”
NFL Network’s Judy Battista revealed Allen has taken a hit on 66% of his runs. That’s way too high for a quarterback. Robinson would provide the Bills with an alternative in short-yardage and goal-line situations, the most punishing situations for Allen to run in.
While the Bills certainly don’t need a three-down back, given the way they run their offense, Robinson’s presence would undoubtedly help them be more efficient and effective. And for the fantasy football gamers out there, Robinson in Buffalo would be a whole lot of fun.