This is going to be the fifth time in a six-game stretch in which Stefon Diggs (five catches for 29 yards) likely finishes a week outside of the top 45 fantasy football producers at the position.
Let me phrase that differently: The WR4 in ADP this summer has been producing at a level below our preseason expectation for Elijah Moore (WR45). What do we do with the Buffalo Bills‘ WR from a fantasy standpoint moving forward?
Stefon Diggs Absent for Fantasy Managers in Week 16
The struggles have come in a variety of ways for Diggs, which is the concerning part. In his four games prior to the Week 16 dud, Diggs earned a 27.6% target share, a rate that is about what we would have projected this preseason and had assumed that the elite numbers would follow.
The target rates haven’t been an issue of late, but the lack of efficiency and explosive plays have left fantasy managers with nothing but coal to show for their Diggs shares of late.
He has been unable to repeat the 70.1% catch rate from a season ago, and he doesn’t have a 25-yard catch since the first week of November. Additionally, his yards per catch is down north of 13% from last season.
While the touchdown count as a whole is in line with preseason expectations, the majority of them came in the first month of the season.
Can You Trust Diggs as a WR1 in Week 17?
Forget as a WR1; I’m not 100 percent sure you can trust Diggs in your starting lineup. Due to the lack of health at the QB position and Diggs’ consistent target rate, I won’t rank him outside of the WR2 range. But the risk you’re absorbing simply cannot be ignored.
He gets a New England Patriots secondary this next week that held him to 4.8 yards per target in the Week 7 meeting (all other Bills: 7.7 yards per target).
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New England struggles to generate pressure, and that could well put Gabe Davis in a spot to produce again, something that puts Diggs’ value in danger if we aren’t expecting a high pass total for Allen (like the past two weeks).
I’m starting Diggs in a fantasy championship (if I get there) next week, but I’m lying to you if I say I’m doing it with confidence. I didn’t think we’d be at this point, but there will be two Philadelphia Eagles receivers and two Kansas City Chiefs receivers all ranked over him for fantasy Super Bowl time!
If you’re the forward-looking type, I’m not overly concerned when it comes to his value in 2024. Actually, there’s a possibility that we could be looking at a reasonable discount.
He is going to remain the alpha target earner on an offense that has a QB they trust in a system that is going to count on moving the ball through the air.
As good as Dalton Kincaid has been in his rookie season and Davis was against the Los Angeles Chargers, neither profile as the type to lead a 2024 offense in targets. At 30 years old, there is some age concerns surrounding Diggs, but I’d be more willing to bet on him than against him this summer.
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