The Atlanta Falcons had a rather unusual plan going into the 2024 season. While a first-round pick gave them Michael Penix Jr., they also gave a 36-year-old Kirk Cousins, coming off an Achilles injury, an $180 million contract. Unfortunately, the situation has gone exactly as fans feared.
In Year 1, Cousins got the starting nod, but through 15 weeks was far from ideal. As a result, last week, Penix had his first start in an NFL game after the Falcons benched Cousins. The Falcons are committed to following that model as their playoff hopes dangle in the balance.
Where Did Things Go Wrong With Kirk Cousins and the Falcons?
It has been a long road for the Falcons this season. After coming out of the gates 2-2, with Cousins failing to impress, many were still waiting. Given the Achilles injury that ended his 2023 campaign in Week 8, a bit of a hiccup wasn’t out of the ordinary.
Then, Week 5 began a spectacular spell, with Cousins slicing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for over 500 yards and four touchdowns. He would carry that momentum forward, as the team was looking solid at 6-3, having just beaten the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9.
That is when things took a turn for the worse. The team lost four straight, as Cousins did not tally a single TD while giving up eight interceptions. Their record deteriorated, and the playoffs hung in the balance.
One final chance with the Las Vegas Raiders netted them a victory. However, Cousins once again did not have a clean game. Ultimately, Atlanta saw no chance but to bench him in favor of their rookie. With the lowest TD rate of his career at 5.8% and the team needing victories in short order, it didn’t come as a total surprise.
MORE: Updated Week 17 Playoff Bracket
After all, due to their W-L record against Tampa Bay and the general condition of the NFC South, the Falcons still have a shot at the playoffs. As a result, they were willing to trust in the rookie instead of their $180 million quarterback.
What makes the situation worse is that the team could waive Cousins off the roster entirely, though salary cap implications would remain.
How Much Has Cousins Made in His Career?
Through 2024, Cousins is the sixth-highest earner in the NFL with $294,169,486. Above him are some of the all-time greats, with Super Bowl champions like Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady leading the list.
Behind that trio stand the still-active Russell Wilson and fellow Falcon legend Matt Ryan, respectively.
In Cousins’ case, back-to-back franchise tags with Washington led to $19,953,000 and $23,943,699 price tags before the Vikings gave him his first extended contract outside of the rookie deal worth $84,000,000.
In 2020, he would re-sign with them on a two-year, $66,000,000 extension before adding a third year worth $35,000,000. Currently, he is under contract with the Falcons for a deal made in the 2024 offseason worth $180,000,000.
Cousins vs. Michael Penix Jr.
Here at Pro Football Network, we have created our own Quarterback+ (QB+) metric, which weighs statistics we value highly and then uses them to evaluate a quarterback across the current season.
Our metric uses numbers that are fully available through 2019, so that’s where the historical context comes from. All data referenced is relative to either the current season or in comparison to stats dating back to 2000 for most or 2019 for pressure-related data.
We’re molding stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN Insight is quantifying “clutch.”
Defining “clutch” performance is an imperfect science. In this case, we’ve used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
Kirk Cousins’ QB+ Grade Through Week 15
The Falcons made the decision to bench Cousins entering Week 16 after he ranked 28th in the league over the proceeding four weeks. Cousins has struggled when operating under pressure and in clutch spots all season, with a -0.44 EPA/DB when pressured. His nYPA of 7.3 ranks ninth, but he’s also 11th in YAC/Cp at 5.6.
Cousins’ clean pocket numbers are solid (0.28 EPA/DB), but he’s converting just 34.1% of his third-down opportunities this season (ranks 29th) and has a -0.44 EPA/DB when pressured (27th).
Michael Penix’s QB+ Grade in Week 16
Penix’s first start in the NFL was a mixed one in terms of the metrics. In many ways, kicking off your career by being average is a positive, as we have seen many quarterbacks start off badly.
Among the rookies to take the field this year, Penix’s QB+ of 74.4 ranks third in terms of first starts, just narrowly behind Maye (74.6) and Daniels (75.3). However, he was well ahead of the first starts from Nix (63.8), Rattler (63.3), and Williams (59.5).
Of course, when we compare Penix to those other rookies, he has had the advantage of sitting for the first 15 weeks and learning the offense. Nix, Williams, and Daniels were pushed into action in Week 1, while Maye started quicker than the Patriots first planned.
Penix also had some extended opportunities in training camp and preseason, with the Falcons taking things slowly in terms of bringing Kirk Cousins back. Therefore, Penix was likely set in a relatively nice position for his first start.
The metrics this week were largely pretty average for Penix:
- 7.5 nYPA
- 45.5% third-down rate
- 0.36 EPA/DB clean pocket
- -0.39 EPA/DB pressure
- 0.16 EPA/DB overall
However, we should note that, within those numbers, Penix has been credited with an interception on a pass to Kyle Pitts, where the tight end essentially fumbled the ball into the hands of a defensive back. The turnover technically counts against Penix, but no blame should lie at his feet.
That play alone contributed a -4.20 EPA. Penix finished the game with a 5.59 EPA across all his plays, so without that play, he could have finished with an EPA above 10, which would have ranked in the top 10 in the league this week.
Penix’s 45.5% third-down conversion rate was the fourth-best by any Falcons QB in a game this season (and best since Week 8). Penix averaged 0.24 EPA per play on third downs and -0.08 EPA per play on first/second downs (the first- and second-down numbers include that -4.2 EPA on the interception).
Penix to Face Tougher Test vs. Commanders in Week 17
PFN’s defense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, sack percentage, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass.
The Commanders’ overall defensive numbers aren’t very impressive, but they’ve shown the ability to perform against lesser units. With Jalen Hurts leaving the Week 16 contest against the Eagles in the first quarter with a concussion, the Commanders capitalized on a matchup against Kenny Pickett.
Washington generated a 76.8 (C) grade against Philadelphia, ranking in the top 10 for just the fifth time all season. The Commanders’ other weekly top-10 finishes came against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, and Titans, all of whom rank in the bottom 10 in Defense+ for the season.
Despite Saquon Barkley rushing for over 100 yards in the first quarter, Washington actually posted its second-best rushing success rate (70%) of the season. Over the final three quarters, Barkley accumulated just 41 yards on 22 carries, posting a woeful 18.2% rushing success rate.
Dan Quinn’s unit hasn’t performed to the level that his Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that’s not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.