Over the course of an 18-game regular season, every team in the NFL goes through ups and downs. From the Titans to the Eagles, no team was without a strength and no team was perfect.
Some metrics are more predictive than others and that needs to be noted, but here is a glimpse at what every team can enter this offseason feeling good about.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have an elite athlete under center and a high-pedigree receiver on the perimeter, but it was Trey McBride who stole the show in 2024 (five more catches than he had targets in a breakout 2023). He’s been targeted on over 26% of his routes in each of the past two seasons, and his efficiency on those routes has been nothing short of elite.
Since 2020, Top Yards/Route Seasons By TE Under 26 Years Old
- 2021 Mark Andrews: 2.18
- 2024 Trey McBride: 2.15
- 2023 Trey McBride: 2.04
- 2024 Brock Bowers: 2.02
- 2021 Kyle Pitts: 2.02
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. showed promise down the stretch of his rookie season, but it’s hard to consider his limited sample size as predictive in any way. Instead, the punting game behind Brandon Pinion deserves some shine as a league-high 12.8% of his punts were downed inside the 5-yard line, the highest team rate since the 2012 Bengals.
In Pinion’s three years with the Falcons, they rank third in this stat, a drastic improvement from their 13th ranking in the three seasons prior.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson lost his bid for a second straight MVP, but he graded as our QB1 per our custom QB+ grading system. And no, I’m not talking about QB1 for the 2024 season, I’m talking about the best season we have on record (QB+ dates back to 2019). Jackson now is the proud owner of two of the four top seasons on file, and the addition of Derrick Henry helped continue growth that was already taking place.
Lamar Jackson Play-Action Passer Rating
- 2021: 92.3
- 2022: 104.8
- 2023: 121.4
- 2024: 136.5
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen won a close MVP vote, and as many things as he is capable of doing, it was what he didn’t do in 2024 that was most impressive. In this past season, Allen cut his interception rate to 1.2%, a mark that was less than half of his rate in each of the two seasons prior.
Our metrics preferred Lamar Jackson’s season, but Allen has as much a claim to the title of PFN’s top QB of this era — he has three of the top-13 regular season QB+ grades in our database (dates back to 2019, Allen’s 2020, 2022, and 2024 seasons grade as elite).
Carolina Panthers
Is Bryce Young the man for the rebuild? Through the first 1.5 years of his career, there was more doubt than hope, but he was able to change the narrative with a strong close to the 2024 season.
QB+ Development
- First 13 qualified games: 75.7 average QB+
- Last 7 qualified games: 67.9 average QB+
For reference, a similar QB+ gap separated Justin Herbert from Aaron Rodgers in 2024. This is a game of narrow margins and the Panthers have to be encouraged by how their 23-year-old QB finished his second professional season.
- 2024 Young, Weeks 1-11: 7.8 air yards per throw and a 2.3% INT rate
- 2024 Young, Weeks 12-18: 9.4 air yards per throw and a 1.3% INT rate
Chicago Bears
The Bears haven’t had a winning season since going 12-4 in 2018, but, by season’s end, Caleb Williams showed enough growth to give this fan base optimism that such a season is on the horizon.
Caleb Williams’ QB+ Development
- Games 1-4: 65.3 average QB+
- Games 5-9: 71.8 average QB+
- Games 10-17: 73.9 average QB+
The Bears’ defense ended up ranking 13th in our Defense+ grading process this season, a mark that is far from prohibitive (the Steelers, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Commanders, and Bills were the other defenses that ranked 12-18 and they all made the playoffs). The NFC North was the best division in football last season and could get stronger in 2025 should the Bears level up, something that is certainly possible.
Cincinnati Bengals
The offense kept the Bengals in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season and Comeback Player of the Year Joe Burrow’s maturity was certainly a driving force.
Burrow INT% by Season
- 2021: 2.7% of attempts
- 2022: 2.0%
- 2023: 1.6%
- 2024: 1.4%
He was intercepted on just 0.9% of his passes when trailing last season, a rate that ranked behind only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen (his 8.3% TD rate in such spots was the best since Tua Tagovailoa in 2022).
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have plenty of offensive question marks, and while their Defense+ grade fell from 95.3 in 2023 (second best in our database) to 80.2 (ninth for the season), this unit still flashed upside by creating pressure on a league-best 40.1% of non-blitzed dropbacks (CLE rates: 28.3% in 2022 and 38.6% in 2023).
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys had 12 wins or 10 losses in all five seasons under Mike McCarthy, an era that is now over. The hope is for them to bounce back with a healthy Dak Prescott in 2025, and while plenty needs to change under Brian Schottenheimer, this nucleus has proven plenty capable of closing games.
Dallas closed out all six of their games last season when entering the fourth quarter with a lead and have now won 17 straight such games (their last such loss came in Week 15 of 2022 in Jacksonville).
Denver Broncos
The Bo Nix/Sean Payton relationship certainly looks like one that is set to flourish long-term and that was the major storyline for 2024. But if this defense continues to play at an elite level, there is a nice ceiling to chase.
The Broncos were our top-graded defense, earning a 90.6 grade per our Defense+ metric, well ahead of the second-place Eagles (87.9). That was the eighth-best grade we have on file (charting began in 2019), something that was hard to see coming after they posted a 73.7 grade in 2023 (26th in the NFL).
Detroit Lions
Plenty went right in Detroit this season, most of it coming on the offensive side of the ball. The Lions scored on 51.6% of their drives during the regular season, making them the only team to score on more drives than not (NFL average: 38.8%) and highlighting their extreme growth from 2023 (40.6%).
Green Bay Packers
The quarterback position drives success at a high level, but Saquon Barkley proved that an elite running back can play a big role. What the Packers got from Josh Jacobs in his first season with the team was encouraging on many levels.
Josh Jacobs’ Rushing Profile
- 2023 (LV): 3.9% of carries gained 10+ yards, 2.4 yards per carry after contact
- 2024 (GB): 11% of carries gained 10+ yards, 3.5 yards per carry after contact
Despite facing a loaded box at roughly the same rate in both of those seasons, Jacobs moved the chains on 24.3% of his carries in 2024 compared to just 14.6% in 2023. Jordan Love’s development has a greater chance at being accelerated if the run game can continue to function at this level — that is why Green Bay brought in Jacobs.
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud took a step back in Year 2 (67.8 QB+, a 14-point decline from 2023), and while that was hard for the Texans to stomach, the growth of their pass defense was good to see and gives this team plenty of potential take a step forward in 2025 if their young QB can regain form.
Pass Defense
- 2023: 7.0 yards per pass and a 2.5% interception rate
- 2024: 6.2 yards per pass and a 3.4% interception rate
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a flat 17-17 in two years under Shane Steichen and have an unknown in Anthony Richardson, a QB who they spent the fourth pick on in 2023 but has missed more games than he has started.
There is no shortage of moving pieces in this offense, but they committed the third-fewest penalties per game in 2024 (5.47, league average: 6.44). They committed 17.4% fewer defensive infractions than they did in 2023 — it’s not a flashy strength, but it’s the type of positive note that can matter should they get the production under center that they are hoping for.
In 2022, the Bengals and Eagles were a part of the NFL’s final four — both of whom were in Year 3 with a QB they labeled as their franchise guy and on a team that committed under 5.50 penalties per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are a long ways away from competing at a high level, but when you look at the elite eight of the NFL this season, every team had either a game-changing QB or a star receiver:
- Texans: Nico Collins
- Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
- Commanders: Jayden Daniels (Terry McLaurin)
- Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Rams: Puka Nacua
- Eagles: A.J. Brown (Jalen Hurts)
- Ravens: Lamar Jackson
- Bills: Josh Allen
We don’t know that Trevor Lawrence qualifies as such, but after one season, it’s hard not to believe that Brian Thomas Jr. is on that trajectory at the receiver position. As a rookie, he cleared 75 receiving yards in seven straight to round out the season and finished second to Ja’Marr Chase in 40-yard receptions (Thomas had seven of Jacksonville’s eight such grabs).
BTJ (28.6%) topped both Chase (27.3%) and Justin Jefferson (26.6%) in terms of percentage of red-zone routes that yielded a target — he’s not an ascending star, he already is one.
Kansas City Chiefs
The final 60 minutes of the 2024 season didn’t go the way the Chiefs wanted, but they have still won 17 straight one-score games. Their ability to finish those games is something that keeps the talk of a dynasty alive (since 2000, the majority of NFL games have been decided by a single possession).
Las Vegas Raiders
Expectations weren’t high for the Raiders entering 2024, but they needed 13th overall pick Brock Bowers to show signs of belonging from the jump after investing the 35th overall pick at the TE position the draft prior (Michael Mayer).
He did. And then some. The only two-time Mackey Award winner had no trouble adjusting to the professional game and now has his name in the record books in a few ways:
- Rookie TE record with 1,194 receiving yards
- Rookie record for receptions with 112
- Raider record for receptions with 112
Los Angeles Chargers
The Justin Herbert/Ladd McConkey tandem is certainly a strength, but as we saw with the Bengals this season, a potent tandem can only take you so far if not supported.
The positive that should have Bolt Nation most excited moving forward is their ability to bend but not break on the defensive end. They were the proud owners of the best red-zone defense in the NFL, allowing a touchdown on just 45% of drives that reached their 20-yard line (NFL average: 57.6%).
defense was cookin’ pic.twitter.com/I2FOFyHlfL
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) February 13, 2025
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua confirmed his status as a superstar, though there wasn’t much of a question in that regard entering the season. What was in question was the upside of this defense sans Aaron Donald, but this team showed some nice growth after a bumpy start to the 2024 campaign.
Development of Third-Down Defense
- Weeks 1-6: 44.2% conversion rate (24th)
- Weeks 7-18: 39.5% (15th)
Miami Dolphins
The splits with and without Tua Tagovailoa were noteworthy, but that wasn’t much of a surprise. What was good to see from the ‘Fins was the 0.84 yards per carry they allowed to opposing running backs before contact, the best rate in the league (37.8% better than league average and 32.3% better than what this team produced in 2023).
Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold put together a nice season, and Jordan Addison looks like the real deal, but the upside that this defense provided allowed this offense to function without pressure. The Vikings led the league with a 3.8% interception rate (NFL average: 2.2%), a significant step up from their 1.8% in 2023.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye had his moments as a rookie, but the peaks and overall growth were more than enough to sell this franchise on him as their QB of the future.
- Weeks 11-18: 79% completion on short passes, 6.7 YPA
- Weeks 1-10: 73.1% completion on short passes, 5.0 YPA
He had six games with 25+ rushing yards and 25+ pass attempts, the same number as Jalen Hurts and more than Justin Herbert. Maye had nine games with a 12+ yard rush, tied for fifth-most at the quarterback position and more than Josh Allen during the regular season.
New Orleans Saints
Things went sideways after a red-hot start to the season for the Saints, but their ability to finish off successful drives was nothing short of elite. In 2024, they scored a touchdown on a league-high 89.5% of their goal-to-go drives, up from 72.4% in 2023.
The only two offenses who challenged the Saints for the crown in this category? The 15-win Lions and 12-win Ravens.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers looks like the real deal, and the Giants are likely to try to build around him on the offensive end. Developing a feared unit on that side of the ball will take time, but their ability to succeed when being aggressive on defense in 2024 is something that gives this franchise hope:
When Blitzing
- 2023: 6.2% sack rate and a 35.6% pressure percentage
- 2024: 12% sack rate and a 41.9% pressure percentage
New York Jets
The idea of adding Aaron Rodgers to this team made sense, it just didn’t work out. Limiting the opposition on first down has been tied to success in various spots (the Commanders, Broncos, and Vikings all surprised this season while the Eagles won the Super Bowl — all were top 10 in yards per play defense on first down), and no team has been better at that over the past seven seasons than Gang Green.
Best Yards Per Play First-Down Defenses Since 2018
- 2023 New York Jets: 4.3
- 2024 New York Jets: 4.3
- 2019 New York Jets: 4.3
Philadelphia Eagles
The Super Bowl champs had the best defense in the league by season’s end and saw their QB play his best game at the perfect time. But their primary strength over the course of the entire season was Saquon Barkley and this running game.
Regular-Season Rush Profiles
- 2023: 74.9% gain percentage, 0.98 yards/carry before contact, 26.3% elusive rate
- 2024: 82.9% gain percentage, 2.64 yards/carry before contact, 41.2% elusive rate
Our Elusive Rate is a custom stat that accounts how often a player rips off an elite run in terms of either yards gained before or after contact (2024 RB average: 31.8%). The gaudy numbers are one thing (2,504 rushing yards including the playoffs, an NFL record), but the fact that 39.7% of his carries came against a loaded box (2023: 30%) makes his 2024 campaign close to unbelievable.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were the second-best third-down defense in 2024, allowing opponents to convert just 35.3% of their opportunities. This was the franchise’s best showing since posting a 33.5% rate in 2010, and their success was tied to their ability to get off the field (1-5 record in their six worst third-down games, 9-2 otherwise).
San Francisco 49ers
The future of the receiver position in San Francisco is unsettled to say the least, but Jauan Jennings will be on this roster for 2025 playing out the final year of his rookie contract, a bargain of a price given what we saw from him in 2024.
There were four players with multiple games in which they posted a 7-90-2 stat line during the regular season: Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, and Jennings. He finished the season averaging 2.29 yards per route, a mark that ranked him 16th among 163 qualified receivers (slotted between Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb).
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks graded as our 20th-ranked offense for the season as Tyler Lockett showed continued signs of decline, DK Metcalf failed to reach the level of expectations, and Geno Smith’s touchdown-to-interception rate submarined again.
Despite all of that, Jaxon Smith-Njigba proved himself as not only an NFL asset, but potentially a difference-maker at a high level. When comparing his usage to his rookie season, JSN …
- Yards per route run – up 37.1%
- Slot usage – up to 77.4% from 67.6%
- Average depth of target – up to 9.2 yards from 6.4
- Red zone target rate – up to 35.5% from 15.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield led this unit to a 90.7 Offense+ grade, third-best in the NFL and significant growth from their 66.8 grade in 2023. The skill positions have plenty of upside and we saw that flashed during an encouraging 2024:
Third-Down Notes
- 50.9% conversion rate, tops in the league
- Up 41.5% from 2023
- NFL average: 39.7%
- Up 41.5% from 2023
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have seen their win total decline in three straight seasons and have finished last in the AFC South in consecutive years. That said, their pass defense has laid breadcrumbs indicating growth — you have to start somewhere.
Yards Per Pass Against
- 2022: 7.4
- 2023: 7.3
- 2024: 6.8
Washington Commanders
The Commanders won 12 games this past season, their first year with more wins than losses since an 8-7-1 showing in 2016. This roster isn’t perfect, but it’s clear that Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels has this franchise headed in the right direction. In his first season …
- Deep pass TD rate: 10.8%
- Andrew Luck’s best season 10.7%
- Blitzed Passer Rating: 117.1
- Joe Burrow’s best season 117.0
- Rushes Gaining Over 15 Yards: 15
- Josh Allen’s most in a season: 13
- YPA in Final 5 Minutes of Regulation: 9.4
- Peyton Manning’s best season: 9.3
- Red Zone Completion%: 62.1%
- Jalen Hurts’ best season: 60.4%
