Two of college football‘s more underrated programs play their last game of the year when West Virginia and Minnesota face off in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. The work Neal Brown and P.J. Fleck have done with their respective programs is to be commended, and they’ll find that they play a similar style. Let’s take a look at this West Virginia vs. Minnesota matchup and make a pick and prediction for the 2021 Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
West Virginia vs. Minnesota betting odds and trends
- Opening Line: Minnesota -7 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Current Line: Minnesota -4
- Total: 44.5
- Moneyline: West Virginia +160, Minnesota -185
Close games define both teams
One score games littered West Virginia’s schedule this year. In fact, seven of their 12 games were decided by one score (they finished 4-3). Those three losses came by a combined 12 points. The Mountaineers also finished 2-2 against ranked teams this season.
Likewise, Minnesota also found themselves in close contests. The Gophers played six one-score games this season, finishing 3-3. Fleck’s team has been volatile this year. They played strong against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State, but struggled against inferior competition (losses to Illinois and Bowling Green). Which Minnesota team shows up remains a question.
West Virginia vs. Minnesota prediction
If you feel like you’re watching the same team when West Virginia and Minnesota play, you’re not wrong. Both teams are good at running the football and will set up the play-action pass. They also have talented pass catchers despite their somewhat limited production.
West Virginia’s balance (417 rushing attempts, 414 pass attempts) is better than Minnesota’s (536, 240), so that’s the big difference.
Leddie Brown eclipsed the 1,000- yard mark for the second consecutive season, and the Mountaineers typically find success when he does. In games he rushed for over 100 yards this year, West Virginia went 5-0. In games he did not, they finished 1-6.
Jarret Doege isn’t elite by any means, but he can be a factor. Throwing to receivers like Winston Wright and Bryce Ford-Wheaton doesn’t hurt. Brown can’t do everything, so an efficient passing attack makes the Mountaineers’ offense tough to stop.
How will the Golden Gophers’ offense look?
Minnesota’s offense finds itself between identities. When Mike Sanford Jr. ran the offense, it was agonizing to watch. Checks to the sideline on nearly every play killed momentum, and the Gophers relied heavily on the run. At times, the offense struggled mightily. Now, with Sanford out as offensive coordinator, Minnesota can hopefully open things up.
Mohamed Ibrahim, Trey Potts, and Bryce Williams were all injured this season, forcing Minnesota to turn to freshmen Ky Thomas and Mar’Keise Irving. Turns out it doesn’t matter who’s running the ball behind PFN’s Big Ten Offensive Line of the Year — they just need some space.
Fleck addressed the future of the offense by reuniting with his former Minnesota OC Kirk Ciarrocca. For now, he’ll have to find ways to protect Tanner Morgan and let guys like Mike Brown-Stephens and Dylan Wright get open. Brevyn Spann-Ford has played well as of late, too. If Minnesota relies too much on the run, West Virginia has the front seven to slow it down. Give Morgan some time, and we might get some 2019 flashbacks.
West Virginia vs. Minnesota Prediction: Minnesota 31, West Virginia 30