Week 9 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Should You Start Amari Cooper, Jordan Addison, Kenneth Walker III, and Others?

In many fantasy football leagues, we are past the midpoint of the regular season. That means that playoff seeding is on the line with every single matchup, making your decisions all that much more important. Need a hand? I’ve got you covered with my outlook for all 14 games on the Week 9 slate!

Bye Weeks: Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, and Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Steelers -2.5
• Total: 36.5
• Titans implied points: 17
• Steelers implied points: 19.5

Quarterbacks

Will Levis: Have yourself a debut! Levis threw for 238 yards and four scores in a win over the Falcons, routinely taking shots down the field and looking comfortable beyond his years.

There was talk of a two-QB system in Tennessee following the injury to Ryan Tannehill, but those whispers were quickly quieted by Levis’ play and resulted in Malik Willis appearing for just two snaps on Sunday. It would appear safe to call this his team for the remainder of the season, and that makes him a viable option in two-QB formats — this team has nothing to lose by letting him loose and seeing what he can do.

Just be careful. Let’s look at Levis last week compared to Weeks 1-2 for Jordan Love this season, a stretch that also included a tight game against the Falcons.

Per completion:

• Levis Week 8: 12.53 yards and 1.34 fantasy points
• Love Weeks 1-2: 13.76 yards/completion and 1.37 fantasy points

This is a different matchup than last week. On a short work week, Levis gets an aggressive Steelers defense that blitzes at a top-five rate (Falcons: bottom 10). I prefer him to the aforementioned Love this week, but not by a ton and not by nearly enough to get him into my top 15 at the position.

Mitchell Trubisky: After taking over for Kenny Pickett (shoulder), Trubisky turned 27 pass attempts into just 138 yards, one TD, and two INTs in the loss to the Jaguars. Can you add him in 2QB formats for the next two weeks (pass-funnel Titans this week and then an extended week before hosting the Packers)? Sure.

Trubisky’s aDOT in a tiny sample last week was 21.7% higher than the rate Pickett has produced this season, and he does add some potential with his legs.

That said, let’s not get crazy. He’s a two-week option at best if Pickett’s injury lingers. That holds value, but don’t sell yourself on Trubisky being more than that. He’s my QB20 this week. Nothing changes if Pickett plays he said he would. I’m not interested in either QB for fantasy and the change wouldn’t impact my ranking of any of the corresponding pieces.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: The King received confirmation last week that he would not be dealt, and he responded with his second 100-yard performance of the season (not to mention a season-high four catches) against the Falcons. The numbers look good, but for the third time in five games, he didn’t have a 15-yard touch.

Over the past five games, Henry’s efficiency has been tied to game results:

• Two wins: 22 carries per game, 5.1 yards per carry
• Three losses: 12 carries per game, 4.4 yards per carry*

*That number craters to 2.8 if you remove an outlier 63-yard wildcat carry against the stingy Ravens

Usually, I’d have concerns about that profile, but given the Titans’ ROS schedule and the life that Levis breathed into this team last week, Henry is still an RB1 for me moving forward.

Tyjae Spears: The rookie continues to get on the field (30 snaps, held an 18-14 edge over Henry in routes run), but there simply isn’t touch usage to put him anywhere near starting lineups. In an inconsistent offense, he’s yet to clear 11 touches in a game this season and has scored just one time.

Have I been encouraged by what little I’ve seen from the third-round pick? You bet! He’ll be a name to remember when you’re drafting next summer, but Spears is a fringe rosterable player at this point in most leagues.

Najee Harris: The Broncos have two running backs with more fantasy points than Harris this season. Austin Ekeler missed a month, and he has more fantasy points than Harris this season.

You get the idea — it’s been beyond brutal for Harris, who has finished as an RB2 (or better) just twice this season.

He caught a season-high five passes, and that’s something, but he hardly out-snapped Jaylen Warren (35-33) and has gone three straight games without a 15+ yard touch. We thought efficiency could be an issue entering this season, but we didn’t think that we’d be into November and Harris would have as many games with 15+ carries as Tommy DeVito has touchdown passes.

As a favorite this week, the game script should work in Harris’ favor, but the one thing the Titans’ defense can do is plug the running game. Neither Steeler RB is starting for me if I can help it; both barely rank as middling Flex options this week.

Jaylen Warren: He ran six more routes than Harris last week, and that’s his path to out-producing Pittsburgh’s “starter.” But does it even matter?

The Steelers clearly aren’t willing to give Warren 10 carries in a game, and with the value of targets in this offense being low, there’s just not a path for him to explode.

He has caught at least three passes in six of seven games this season, a floor that would be appealing if he had any access to a ceiling. He doesn’t.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: Prior to the Week 8 explosion (128 yards and three scores), Nuk had one weekly finish better than WR30 this season. Uno. Levis came in and wasn’t shy about chucking the ball down the field, putting Hopkins in a position to do Hopkins things.

And he did. With touchdown catches of 16, 47, and 61 yards, we got a vintage performance from the future Hall of Famer — on your bench. From a process standpoint, you made the right call in benching Hopkins, but I understand that “process” points aren’t counted on your league standings page, and losing those points hurts.

• Week 14, 2021 – Week 7, 2023: Three touchdowns on 156 targets
• Sunday: Three touchdowns on six targets

Be careful not to chase. Those points are a lost cause at this point; there’s no getting them back.

The first touchdown came on an iffy pass where Hopkins may have gotten away with a push off, and that built up some confidence that Levis leveraged for the remainder of the game.

Facing Blitzburgh on a short week is a little different story than an inept Atlanta defense. The Steelers were gashed by WR1s early this season, but since their bye, they held Cooper Kupp to 29 yards on seven targets (two drops, but still an impressive showing) and current WR1 — Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk — to 46 yards on five targets.

Hopkins has moved into the Flex conversation for me after being off of it for over a month, but I don’t have him ranked as a must-start. I still prefer the trio of potent receivers that you could have gotten off of the waiver wire earlier this season (Rashee Rice and Josh Downs) to Hopkins this week.

Treylon Burks: After more than a month off, Burks returned to action (knee) and was part of a five-man WR rotation (catchless on two targets). He ran a route on 54.8% of Levis’ dropbacks. While that number should spike as he proves his health, I’d rather be a week late than a week early.

Burks won’t be ranked remotely close to my top 40 until he shows full health. Even then, he’ll be a volatile option in an absolute best-case scenario. He’s a stash right now as we try to get a grasp as to what the Titans have under center.

George Pickens: I mentioned Trubisky looking downfield last week, and if that continues, Pickens’ value could prove to be QB-proof. He caught only one of five targets against the Jaguars, but Pickens made it count (22-yard TD), and that’s the type of profile I think he holds moving forward.

This was his third game this season with under 40 receiving yards. Of course, he also has a trio of games north of 105 yards, making him the definition of a coin flip. I have him ranked as a WR2 this week due to the matchup, sharing a tier with Gabe Davis.

Diontae Johnson: All this man does is earn targets, and his ability to get open doesn’t depend on who is under center. Since returning from IR, Johnson has seen 31.7% of the targets (Week 8: 14 targets), and while the upside of those looks is a legitimate concern, the floor that he offers is valuable in most settings.

For the small sample crowd out there, Johnson was targeted three times by Trubisky after he took over last week (four of his teammates saw four targets from the backup). I prefer the ceiling of Pickens in a favorable matchup, but I do have Johnson ranked as a low-end WR2/high-end Flex option in half-PPR formats.

Tight Ends

Given the lack of production at the tight end position, it’s tough to truly not matter. That said, both of these teams have pulled it off — there’s not a TE in this game that needs to be even remotely close to your lineup.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

• Spread: Chiefs -2.5
• Total: 51
• Dolphins implied points: 24.5
• Chiefs implied points: 27

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tua’s consistency hasn’t been there for fantasy managers, but he has finished three of the past four weeks as a QB1. And with the total this high, he’s got a good chance to make it four of five.

In a different week, I’d be lower than the consensus on Tagovailoa, but this isn’t most weeks, given the injuries at the position along with four teams on bye. His QB1 performances have come in games in which he hits the big pass (no surprise there), making a matchup with a high-pressure defense that isn’t missing tackles less than ideal.

This matchup was enough to drop Tagovailoa below Justin Herbert in my Week 9 rankings, but he’s still easily a top-seven QB and one that should be started in all formats.

Patrick Mahomes: As it turns out, being sick and playing at a high altitude against a divisional opponent that you saw two weeks ago isn’t ideal. The Chiefs have been susceptible to playing down to the level of some questionable offenses. Three games against the Broncos and Jets in October, they averaged 17.0 ppg. That’s an odd thing to keep track of down the road, but it doesn’t matter against the high-flying ‘Fins.

Mahomes has thrown at least 38 passes in four straight games and has hit 20 rushing yards in seven of eight this season. I have zero reservations about Mahomes this week and have him ranked as my clear-cut QB1 this week.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert: Another week, another score. Mostert is up to 12 scores this season, and he continues to be as fantasy efficient as any back in the NFL.

I have him ranked as an RB1 again this week, but for those with the luxury of looking long term, your trade window is closing quickly.

Not only is there some risk in this matchup — KC allows the third-fewest yards per play — this is the last game De’Von Achane will miss.

The Dolphins go on bye in Week 10 and have five tough RB matchups over the final seven weeks of the fantasy season. If you can target a desperate team in your league that needs to win this week, I’d be happy to toss out a Mostert offer. Some options in a structure like that:

• Mostert + a piece for Travis Etienne Jr. (bye week)
• Mostert + a piece for David Montgomery (bye week)
• Mostert for Jonathan Taylor

Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed: This duo is proof positive as to why I think this backfield becomes a committee when Achane returns from IR. Wilson and Ahmed aren’t built to be featured options, but both were involved last week (four targets for Ahmed and seven touches for Wilson), and that seems to be how this offense is going to function.

Of these two, Wilson would be the one I would hang on to. However, both are very much on the chopping block if you want to fill out your roster with upside — something I’d recommend doing.

Isiah Pacheco: Am I thrilled about Pacheco averaging under 4.0 yards per carry in four straight games? Of course not … but I’m not worried.

His role is unquestioned, and betting against a Mahomes offense just isn’t a profitable way to go about living your life.

Miami owns the sixth-worst red-zone defense this season, and if the Chiefs are going to aim to keep the Dolphins’ offense off the field, Pacheco profiles as a strong quantity and quality option this week when it comes to touches. Fire him up as your RB1 and feel good about it!

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: With four straight top-six performances and six such weeks on his 2023 ledger, Hill is turning in a truly special season. He posted his fifth game north of 110 yards last week against the Patriots, and he looks to carry the momentum into a revenge spot.

Hill is already over 1,000 receiving yards, the first player to do that through eight weeks since 1961 (fourth to ever do it). Cheetah called his shot this summer and continues to pace toward a historic season.

Can his former employer scheme up a way to slow him down? I’m not sure it’s possible. This game is appointment viewing to kick off your Sunday!

Jaylen Waddle: That’s now a touchdown in three of four games, and with a season-best 12 targets earned last week against New England, confidence has officially been restored in Waddle after his slow start to the season.

He has nice upside in this high-scoring game should the Chiefs go overboard in trying to contain Hill. Even if that’s not the case, Waddle’s 9.3 targets per game over the past month is more than enough to feel good about plugging him in as a low-end WR1/strong WR2 in all formats.

Rashee Rice: The WR51 finish was Rice’s worst over the past month. Relax. For the first time this season, he led the Kansas City receivers in snaps, and he dropped what had the potential to be a huge play against Denver.

With a 76.9% catch rate this season and a sure-handed profile, I’m not worried about Rice’s ability to hang onto the football. It’s possible that a trade window has opened here, and I’d take full advantage if that is the case!

Rice remains a solid WR3 for me this week and is very much a Flex option if your league only requires two starting receivers. His role as the WR1 in Kansas City is no longer a question, and that’s a role I want to invest in.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: The cardio king again led KC wide receivers in routes run, yet he again failed to clear 40 receiving yards. That’s now six times in his past seven games.

MVS is a dart throw in times of desperation and nothing more.

Of note, Justin Watson ran a route on 90.9% of his snaps. No action needs to be taken yet, but that usage is something that has my interest.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Complaining about six catches for 58 yards? In this TE economy? You’re better than that.

Kelce is on pace to break the single-season record for TE receptions in Week 16 and has earned at least eight targets in every game this year.

Dating back to last postseason, he has scored in seven of 10 games. For the season, he has:

• More catches than Jaylen Waddle has targets
• More receiving yards in one fewer game than Michael Pittman Jr.
• More catches, yards, and touchdowns in one fewer game than T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: Falcons -4.5
• Total: 37.5
• Vikings implied points: 16.5
• Falcons implied points: 21

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: An Achilles tendon tear was made official on Monday and will sideline Cousins for the remainder of the season. This is a blow for one of fantasy’s better values this summer (four top-10 performances prior to getting hurt) and will have a ripple effect on all involved, but we will get to that in a minute.

Cousins can safely be dropped in all redraft leagues, and Jaren Hall (fifth-rounder out of BYU) carries no value as a replacement option.

Taylor Heinicke: The Falcons went to Heinicke as a precaution last week while Desmond Ridder was being evaluated for a concussion. Even with the health boxes checked, the Falcons have elected to start the back-up this week.

Ridder had a rushing score or multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past three healthy games, numbers that Heinicke has a chance at walking into against a Vikings team that ranks below league average in time of possession, red-zone defense, and pressure rate when blitzing.

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison: He was a top-20 producing fantasy RB in four of his first five games this season but hasn’t done it once since and has finished outside of the top 35 in consecutive weeks.

While the production has been underwhelming of late, Mattison did put to bed any immediate role concerns last week, as he worked well ahead of Cam Akers (44-17 edge in snaps and 22-4 in routes).

Normally, I’d argue that the loss of Cousins hurts Mattison in terms of scoring equity, but for a player with zero rushing scores on 106 carries this season, there isn’t much value to lose in that regard. He’s been held under 45 rushing yards in four straight, and despite a strong role in terms of playing time, has been held under five receiving yards in three of his past five.

Mattison has fallen into the unappealing Dameon Pierce tier of back that you feel gross about starting but may not have an option. In an ugly week, Mattison’s volume gets him to RB23 in my ranks.

Cam Akers: He broke the seal in terms of rushing scores for the Vikings last week — yep, his six-yarder in the first quarter was their first of the season — but 10 touches for 25 yards isn’t exactly the type of encouraging performance we were hoping for.

Akers is very much in the crowded tier of backup RBs who get enough work to be rostered. I have him at the bottom of that crew (Devin Singletary, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, and Tyler Allgeier being the other members), taking into the risk of an offensive performance in the first week sans Cousins.

You’re not playing Akers, and with the potential for this offense to completely crater, he’s not far from the cut list.

Bijan Robinson: The rookie was able to find paydirt on the ground for the first time last week against a stingy Titans run defense. However, Robinson being held catchless on five targets left fantasy managers feeling as if there was meat left on the bone.

He only had three more carries than Tyler Allgeier last week, but Robinson doubling him up in rushing production is a reminder of his potential.

The Vikings have allowed just 40 total points during their three-game win streak, holding Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon all without a 10-yard carry over the past two weeks. This isn’t a defense I’m fading, but they’re playing better these days, which has me off of Robinson when it comes to DFS.

Tyler Allgeier: He has two games this season in which he performed at a top-30 level: Robinson’s NFL debut and headache-gate against the Bucs two weeks ago.

Outside of those two instances, it’s largely been empty calories when it comes to Allgeier’s involvement in this low-octane offense.

In a pinch, you can go this direction. You just have to do so with the understanding that the ceiling isn’t high. Allgeier has been held without a catch in three of his past four games and hasn’t scored since Week 1.

I’d rather roll the dice on Jaylen Warren against a defense that struggles against the pass or a Singletary/Dillon type where the starter isn’t reliable.

Wide Receivers

Jordan Addison: Hall averaged 8.6 yards per pass during his collegiate career, but we’re talking about a rookie QB whose college career completion percentage was lower than Cousins’ career rate in the NFL.

Say what you will about Zach Wilson, but with NFL experience under his belt, he was more prepared to start when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1 than Hall is now.

MORE: Fantasy Impact From Joshua Dobbs Trade

In his first five games, Wilson’s WR1, Garrett Wilson (who also had a season of work on his résumé, not to mention more draft capital than Addison holds), averaged 55.8 receiving yards per game, and his average weekly finish was WR33.

Guess where Addison currently sits in my ranks? WR33.

For this week, he joins the rank of WR1s with serious QB questions — Wilson, Drake London, and DeAndre Hopkins. Even in a good matchup, the odds are high that you have a Flex option that I prefer to Addison (Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Zack Moss, and Darrell Henderson, to name a few).

K.J. Osborn: This season, Osborn has one performance where he finished better than WR34. I’d keep him stashed if for no reason other than we just don’t know what this offense will look like under Hall, but he’s easily outside of my top 40 wide receivers this week.

Barring a surprise, Osborn will be a drop candidate after this game with a tough matchup on tap (vs. Saints) and Justin Jefferson eligible to return.

Drake London: A groin injury cost London the final quarter-plus of last week’s plus-matchup against the Titans, resulting in him finishing with a very Drake London performance where he scores roughly a fantasy point per target (five catches on seven targets for 55 yards).

No reporting out of Atlanta has suggested that this injury is anything to worry about. Thus, I’m operating under the assumption that he’ll be at full strength. He’s not a top-30 receiver this season and isn’t for me in this seemingly fine matchup, but I do think the hate has gone a touch too far.

London has yet to put up the numbers we had hoped for, but in half of his games this season, he has finished the week ranked between 21-36 at the position. The ceiling isn’t overwhelming, but in terms of the WRs I have ranked around him (Tyler Lockett, Hopkins, Rashid Shaheed, and Tank Dell to give you an idea), that level of consistency holds value in the right spot.

Should this injury linger, Van Jefferson’s usage becomes interesting for deeper leagues or punt DFS situations. The former Ram was on the field for over 73% of Atlanta’s first-half snaps last week while London was fully healthy. My opinion of the Atlanta pass catchers didn’t change at all with the move Heinicke.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: For the sixth time in eight games, Hockenson hauled in six passes last week. He even scored for the first time since Week 2.

Do I worry about this quarterback situation? Of course. But it would take a significant dip in volume for Hock to fall out of the second-tier tight ends that he shares with Mark Andrews.

It’s all speculation until we have some Hall numbers to work with, but a young QB against the second-highest pressure defense in the NFL pushes me toward projecting Hockenson’s volume (8.5 targets per game) to remain steady.

You’re playing him in all formats. And if ownership is pushing off all things Minnesota this week in the DFS streets, I have no problem in paying up to be different.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts caught a pass on consecutive plays early in the second quarter last week against the Titans and … one catch in the other 59 minutes and 30 seconds of the game.

The flashes look good, but they’re nothing more than that. Flashes. Nothing you can count on over the course of an entire game.

The nature of the tight end position keeps Pitts on the starting radar, but with under 50 yards in seven of eight games, he’s part of the TE blob.

“TE blob”: The tier of tight ends that extends from TE10 through TE20 that serves as something of a random number generator when it comes to fantasy production.

Jonnu Smith: The two-tight end thing in Atlanta seems to have run its course. Smith had as many pass attempts as targets and has now seen his yardage total dip in four straight games.

The volume is trending in the wrong direction in a hurry, and this isn’t an offense that is going to offer up many scoring chances. I’d rather Donald Parham Jr.’s role as a touchdown vulture.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns

• Spread: Browns -8
• Total: 37.5
• Cardinals implied points: 14.8
• Browns implied points: 22.8

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: We were hopeful that he’d return this week to save those of us in QB hell, but it seems like Week 10 is the more likely spot for Murray’s 2023 debut. Maybe his recovery surprises, and we get news heading into the weekend that he will start over Clayton Tune (Dobbs was benched following the Week 8 loss to Baltimore). If that happens, he is immediately viable — more so due to the state of the QB position right now.

Murray should be added as a speculative option in all formats in which he is available. I’m not overly optimistic, but QBs dropped like flies last week, leaving the position low on reliable depth. If you roster a rock-solid option, don’t worry about it. But all other managers should be looking to get ahead of Murray’s return.

Deshaun Watson: This injury situation is as cloudy as it gets, but you need to make sure someone in your league didn’t overreact and cut ties with Watson. In two of his three healthy games this season, he’s been a top-10 fantasy QB. That could again be the case this weekend, given the lack of options and matchup with the fifth-worst yards-per-pass defense.

I’m not counting on Watson to drive my fantasy ship much past this week if he can suit up. Bye weeks fade with time, not to mention he has a pair of divisional games in Weeks 10-11 that won’t be a walk in the park. Nevertheless, he’s a top-12 play this week if deemed healthy.

Keep an eye on this situation, and if we lack clarity heading into the weekend, join us on the PFN Fantasy YouTube channel on Sunday! We fire it up at 11 a.m. to help you make all of your last-second lineup decisions. I’ll be on at noon to help you sort everything out, so if this comes down to the wire (or even if it doesn’t), carve out time in your lineup setting process to join us!

Running Backs

Emari Demercado: With 38 touches over the past two weeks, we can safely label Demercado “the guy” in Arizona for at least one more week. (James Conner is eligible to come off of IR ahead of next week’s game against the Falcons.)

The Horned Frog hasn’t exactly overwhelmed with his opportunity (yet to have a 20-yard touch this season and just one multi-catch effort over the past month), but Demercado has returned Flex value in three of his past four games.

The Browns’ defense is nothing short of elite, and I really struggle to see a below-average Cards offense moving the ball with any sort of consistency against the best third-down unit in the league.

That skepticism leaves Demercado out of my RB2 tier and places him in the “fine if I have to” range with the Najee Harris’ and Brian Robinsons of the world.

Jerome Ford: The ankle injury that caused his status last week to be a question mark until pregame warmups pretty clearly impacted his usage/performance in Seattle. In a game where Cleveland ran the ball 40 times, Ford finished the week as the RB47 and was third in this backfield in touches.

Heck, he didn’t even play his fifth snap of the game until the second half. Ford’s season-long box score looks fine (4.4 yards per carry with a pair of touchdowns), but remove two outlier runs, and his YPC number tanks to 2.9.

He’s proven serviceable at best for the Browns, and last week, it was proved that they have two healthier backs in Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. capable of doing the exact same thing.

This backfield was in danger of being a committee situation prior to the injury with Hunt coming on strong and is now a threat to be completely useless to us. I currently have Hunt as the RB to start in this game if you’re stuck in that situation (two spots ahead of Demercado), but no one in this game grades out as anything more than a Flex for me.

Kareem Hunt: The playing time chart for the Browns’ backfield in Week 8 was nightmare fuel.

• Snaps: Hunt (37), Ford (26), Strong (24)
• Routes: Hunt (11), Ford (10), Strong (10)

OK, so “nightmare fuel” might only apply for those of us that work in this industry, but you get the idea — not ideal. If I’m going to be worried about how the Dolphins split touches in a crowded backfield that is ALWAYS in scoring position, I can’t even find a word strong enough to describe my feelings for such a situation on an offense that has been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their past four.

Hunt did handle both (yes, “both” as in there were only two) goal-line snaps last week against the Seahawks, and that gives him enough of a bump to be my favorite of this bunch. And by “favorite,” I mean the option I dislike the least.

Pierre Strong Jr.: Strong actually led this trio in early-down work last week, and one of my bosses believes he’s the most talented (healthy) back in Cleveland these days. I still need to be convinced of that, but the point remains — does it matter? If you have three similar backs in a system, you almost assuredly have zero that I’m excited about playing, regardless of matchup.

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: If you have Brown, you’re hoping for Murray to take over under center sooner than later. Until then, you’re picking your spots judicially — this is not one of those spots.

Since their bye, here are the catch rates of top targets against the Browns:

• Week 6: Brandon Aiyuk – 40%
• Week 7: Michael Pittman – 40%
• Week 8: DK Metcalf – 35.7%

After posting three straight top-20 finishes, Hollywood’s average positional finish over his past three is WR41. I was in an optimistic mood when making my WR rankings this week and slotted him at WR39. You have better options on your roster, be it a YOLO-type like Tank Dell or the exact opposite in Michael Thomas.

Amari Cooper: You could certainly make the case that with four games north of 85 receiving yards, Cooper has made chicken salad out of chicken scratch. Not chicken soup or chicken parm, the superior of the chicken dishes, but chicken salad — a passable entree, all things considered.

He’s yet to post consecutive top-30 finishes this season, and if Watson is named the starter this week, I’ll be projecting Cooper to achieve just that after finishing last week as the WR27. He’s currently my WR30 on the nose against a Cardinals defense that was gashed by clear-cut WR1s Ja’Marr Chase (15-192-3), Cooper Kupp (7-148-1), and Brandon Aiyuk (6-148-0) in October.

Elijah Moore: His next finish as a top-35 receiver will be his first this season. Moore’s next game with 60 receiving yards will also be his first this season.

If you want to hold Moore as a cheap way to hope that Watson returns to form for the second half of the season, you have my blessing. But by no means is he a must-hold player at this point.

Moore is a bench player in almost all formats, and in that scenario, I want players with per-target upside. Moore is not that. Moving forward, I’d rather take my chances on the Marquez Valdes-Scantling experience or take a ride on the Jayden Reed roller coaster (13.7 aDOT).

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: Hopefully, you stashed the second-year TE when news broke last week about Zach Ertz landing on IR (quadriceps). All McBride did in his role debut was produce a TE2 finish and ascend into the top tier at the position.

OK, so that last part isn’t true, but can you blame me for getting excited about some help at the tight end position that came free of charge to many?

McBride ran a route on 87.8% of Arizona dropbacks last week (10-95-1 stat line), which is plenty to land him inside my top 15 this week. That sort of usage tells me that the Cards are ready to see what he can do right now, a gift for fantasy managers.

Less ideal is the fact that the majority of his yards (54 yards on four grabs) came in Arizona’s final two possessions last week with the Ravens essentially in prevent mode.

McBride is a worthwhile start for now, and let’s see where it goes. While writing this, it occurred to me that you may need some fun McBride facts after making such a savvy add. That way, you can convince your friends that you knew he was going to be an asset. Here you go:

• Bizarre final year at Colorado State: 90 catches for 1,121 yards and just one TD
• Holds his high school’s record for points (basketball) and home runs (baseball)
• Shares a birthday with actress Jamie Lee Curtis

David Njoku: While McBride is the type of priority add I’d make in the hopes of removing myself from the Hunger Games-like atmosphere that is the TE waiver wire every single week, Njoku is not.

I’m aware that he scored for the first time last week and that he has posted consecutive top-12 finishes. I’m also aware that Njoku has been running hot with per-catch production in those games despite a tanking catch rate (Weeks 1-6: 86.4%, Weeks 7-8: 52.9%).

MORE: Yates’ Fantasy Football Updated TE Rest-of-Season Rankings Week 9

Watson returning would likely lower Njoku’s floor (he has four finishes outside of the top 20 at the position, the floor is a concern), and I’m not going out of my way to bet on this passing game.

Give me Taysom Hill. Give me Michael Mayer. Give me either Charger tight end (if healthy). I think you can do better than roll out Njoku and bank on his recent production being sticky.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Packers -3
• Total: 40
• Rams implied points: 18.5
• Packers implied points: 21.5

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Just because you have a viable fantasy receiver(s) doesn’t mean you’re a fantasy-worthy QB. Stafford has had an elite target earner, if not two, by his side all season long, and yet, he still hasn’t posted a finish better than QB14.

Stafford sprained his thumb last week, and his status is TBD. Frankly, that shouldn’t matter to you. We have two months of a sample that suggests that a healthy Stafford doesn’t have access to much of a ceiling.

Jordan Love: If you’re simply sifting through fantasy finishes, the four top 12s on Love’s résumé look reasonable. However, there’s been a lot of smoke and mirrors involved with those numbers. From rushing scores to massive YAC plays to passes so off-target they are caught by a different player altogether, Love’s production has been fluky at best.

There’s a path to success here, given that the Rams own the fifth-highest opponent aDOT and the Packers have burners out wide, but the floor is simply too low for Love to crack my top 15.

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson: A 32-yard catch last week in Dallas saved Henderson from a disaster of a performance (14 touches for 53 yards without that touch), but a 23-point loss resulted in limited commitment to the ground game for Los Angeles.

Neither Rams running back had a carry gain more than 10 yards last week, and I don’t think we see an uptick in splash plays anytime soon. Henderson continues to own the slight touch edge over Royce Freeman, and while he wasn’t the one to punch in the short touchdown, I’m inclined to trust the process of Henderson getting them into that spot.

I have Henderson ranked at the top of my Flex options (the Zack Moss range) while Freeman checks in a handful of spots lower, sandwiched by Steelers running backs.

Royce Freeman: With 110 yards on 21 carries since joining the Rams, he’s shown some juice on the ground. He was able to cash in his goal-line carry in Dallas last week (33-29 snap edge over Henderson) to get you to double-digit fantasy points.

I’m encouraged by the efficiency on the ground, though zero targets is a concern. The upside is capped by his usage, but I think he can bail you out in a pinch, given that Los Angeles likely leans more on the run game this week than most.

Aaron Jones: Not only is 300 a good movie and a perfect bowling score, it’s also the number of days (come game day) that have passed since the last time Jones got his hands on the ball more than 11 times.

He has exactly 11 touches in both of his games since returning from a hamstring injury. The team continues to show little confidence in his health – fantasy managers need to follow their lead. I think Jones is a superior player to Rachaad White and Chuba Hubbard, but in the scope of fantasy football Week 9, my confidence in the volume of those two trumps any per-touch upside Jones holds.

He’s a low-end RB2 at best this week. Part of that is due to injuries and bye weeks, leaving the position something of a wasteland.

AJ Dillon: Even with a minor injury suffered during the game, Dillon held the edge in snaps (36-34) and routes (21-18) over Jones last week against the Vikings. He managed to double his season catch total last week. Since Jones returned, Dillon has 75 receiving yards (first six weeks: 25 receiving yards), giving him a path to fantasy value despite his continued inefficiencies on the ground (3.1 YPC).

The Rams are an average run defense, and this is a split committee on a below-average offense. Dillon’s floor is more concerning than his ceiling is encouraging, leading me to bench him and look elsewhere.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: Two up and two down for Kupp since returning to action. If I told you that was going to be the case, you probably would have been fine with it.

“Knocking some rust off. That’s OK by me. Give me Kupp at full speed for the final month of the fantasy season.”

I’m assuming that would have been your response if I told you that Kupp would have 21 catches on 38 targets for 316 yards and a score in his first month back in action. Does that sound right?

But we are human. We are programmed to react to what we’ve seen most recently, and in this case, Kupp has been a mess. Over the past two weeks, he has caught just six of 17 targets for 50 yards – with multiple drops. It hasn’t been pretty, but we are just getting past what would have been Kupp’s ramping-up period.

Remember when A.J. Brown had some slow games to open the season?

Relax, people. Kupp is going to be just fine and should be considered a WR1 moving forward. If the Stafford injury ends up being more serious than let on, Kupp’s stock would dip, but not nearly enough to get him out of lineups.

Puka Nacua: The rookie has seen at least seven targets in every game this season, but he has seen his consistency dip since Kupp returned:

• Week 5: 16.6 fantasy points
• Week 6: 4.6 fantasy points
• Week 7: 19.4 fantasy points
• Week 8: 5.8 fantasy points

The usage has me remaining confident in Nacua’s long-term outlook, but we do need to start building in more of a floor than we had earlier this season.

In Week 7 against the Packers, the Broncos’ top receiving tandem (Sutton and Jeudy) caught all 11 of their targets. Last week, the Vikings’ top duo caught 13 of 17 targets. Moral of the story — I trust the volume of both Kupp and Nacua to pay off top-20 value at the position this weekend.

Christian Watson: You drafted Watson as a starter this summer, and that’s looking like a mistake. That’s OK, everyone makes mistakes. The mistake that not everyone makes is the compounding of errors.

Watson has one finish better than WR34 this season and has yet to catch more than three passes in a game. For his career, the burner has only two games with more than four receptions. He simply hasn’t shown us the ability to produce volume on a consistent basis, and with Love struggling, why would we expect that to change any time soon?

The raw athletic ability of Watson can be intoxicating, and Love’s willingness to take shots down the field makes this a tough call. With that said, until this Packers offense proves capable of consistently moving the ball, I’m not counting on it.

Watson is outside of my comfort zone for Flex plays in Week 9.

Romeo Doubs: Nothing in his advanced box score this season hints at anything special, but Doubs has a score or 12+ targets in four of his past five games – that puts him in the running for WR1 in this offense.

Earning targets is a good place to start, but until the play under center improves, Doubs can’t be trusted near fantasy starting lineups. Case in point: he has three more targets over his past three games than Rashee Rice, yet his yardage total is four yards fewer than Rice’s worst game over that stretch.

Mahomes vs. Love is obviously not a fair fight, but you get the idea. Doubs might be a good player, but how much different is he than guys like Jahan Dotson? Play him at your own risk – he’s not a Flex option for me.

Jayden Reed: The team is looking to get Reed some reps (led their receiver corps in route participation last week at 87.8%), and you love to see that. He rewarded them in Week 8 against the Vikings with season-bests in catches (four) and yards (83). Even so, he’s still far too risky in this underwhelming offense to put much faith in, at least for redraft.

He carries second-round draft capital and has either a 30-yard catch or a score in six of seven games this season. There’s a lot to like in dynasty leagues if Green Bay can figure out the QB position.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: It was good to see him catch five balls last week in Dallas (matching his total from his three games prior), but his 2023 box score is still sans a touchdown or a 50-yard game.

Once you enter the TE blob, there is no such thing as a “bad play” due to how little it takes to be relevant. But there are better darts to throw than wasting a roster spot on Higbee.

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave averaged 41.3 yards per game in Weeks 1-3, and that was with some chunk plays left on the field. We allowed ourselves to get excited about the TE circle of trust potentially expanding by one – and then Love regressed.

Since the hot start, Musgrave has been held under 35 yards in four straight and still has yet to find the end zone. His lone big play came way back in Week 1 on a broken coverage, and even that play ended up producing less than it should have.

He might be an asset down the road, but he is not someone to worry about right now as you look to bandage your way through another week at the position.

Washington Commanders at New England Patriots

• Spread: Patriots -3.5
• Total: 41
• Commanders implied points: 18.8
• Patriots implied points: 22.3

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: The argument could be made that no player has been more consistently productive while staying under the radar than Howell this season. All he has done is rack up six top-15 finishes, a run that includes three top-10 performances over his past four games.

Nobody is going to label Howell as a star, but I don’t see anything in his profile that suggests this high-floor production can’t be sustained. He has just enough rushing upside for it to matter, and he excels at taking what the defense gives him (four different players saw at least seven targets last week, and five caught at least five passes).

You don’t go broke making a profit, and Howell has been giving you that all season long.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: If you told me in August that Robinson would have six scores through eight weeks with an extended role in the passing game that includes an 81.3% catch rate, I’d assume that rosters with him would be thriving and he’d be in the conversation for the best value pick of the summer.

I would have been wrong. He hasn’t had a finish better than RB15 since Week 2, a run that includes four finishes as RB24 or worse. The problem? Volume. Despite an unquestioned lead role, B-Rob has no more than 10 carries in four straight. With Howell playing at the level he is, I’m not sure we see that change any time soon.

Robinson has yet to reach double figures in fantasy points in a week without a score, a reliance on touchdowns that is terrifying. In what could be one of the more boring games of the week, I have Robinson ranked as an average Flex play, alongside the Steelers and Rams backs.

Rhamondre Stevenson: I know Halloween was on Tuesday, but if Stevenson dressed up as Robinson – would anyone know the difference? Last four games:

• Stevenson: 37 carries, 13 catches, 4.6 yards per touch
• Robinson: 34 carries, eight catches, 4.8 yards per touch

Both of these offenses rank outside of the top 20 in yards per play and provide their lead back with limited scoring chances. If this was a week with more RB health and/or fewer byes, neither Stevenson nor Robinson would be ranked as a starter for me.

Sadly, that’s not the world we live in. Stevenson owns a little more upside as a pass catcher than Robinson, and that gives him the slight edge, but both are low-end RB2s that inspire very little confidence.

Ezekiel Elliott: With under 40 rushing yards in five straight games and just one catch total over his past three, “Zeke” doesn’t need to be rostered. What’s the point?

MORE: Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Rankings

There are certain backup RBs that offer role upside by way of a single injury. Zach Charbonnet in Seattle would be an easy RB2 if Kenneth Walker got hurt. You could say the same thing for Tyler Allgeier in Atlanta or even Tyjae Spears in Tennessee.

Elliott is not that. Move on. At this point in the season, there are better ways to use a roster spot.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: Could it be? Could McLaurin be getting the WR1 usage that we spent all of September clamoring for?

• Weeks 1-5: 31 targets
• Weeks 6-8: 32 targets

The catch rate isn’t there at the moment (53.1% during the past three weeks), but I’ll take my chances in that regressing to his career average of 63.1%. His fantasy finish position has improved in each of the past three weeks (45-26-20-15), and that’s about where I expect him to be most weeks: a viable WR2 that you feel good about.

The lack of scoring equity will prevent him from moving too high up in my ranks, but his floor is trending in a strong direction. That should be plenty comforting, given the uneasy start to this season for McLaurin managers.

Jahan Dotson: Was his 108-yard performance last week the start of something or simply a flash in the pan?

Let’s talk this out.

Over the past two weeks, he has seen 18 targets, just one fewer than he saw in total over the previous four weeks. The increase in volume is one thing, but the fact that it has come with a 14.2% spike in aDOT is what has me interested. Dotson was a big-play threat at Penn State and as a rookie last season (14.9 yards per catch), but they seemed to try to change his role this year.

If the target and depth of target are both moving in the right direction, we could be looking at a late-season peak that makes a major difference in the fantasy playoffs.

I will say that how Howell plays is worrisome. He’s proven more than willing to spread the ball around, so if we think the recent McLaurin usage spike is here to stay, Dotson’s weekly consistency could be a major issue.

He ran a route on 89.1% of dropbacks last week, putting him squarely in the 2022 Gabe Davis tier of fantasy options. I was willing to bet on Davis last season, trusting that a talented player with no shortage of paying time would pay off — I’m getting there with Dotson. He’s an average WR3 for me this week who I’m cautiously starting if I’m in a pinch.

Curtis Samuel: The three-game TD streak in Weeks 4-6 was cute, but that’s in the rearview mirror at this point. I think it’s safe to move on. Outside of that run, Samuel has just one top-50 finish this season and continues to battle a lingering toe/foot injury.

The Commanders have stopped handing him the rock (0 rush yards over the past month), sapping him of the versatility that made him appealing in the first place. I’d rather try to pin the tail on the WR2 in Dallas or take any of the Packer receivers over Samuel, both this week and moving forward.

Kendrick Bourne: Just a reminder that Bourne tore his ACL last week and will miss the remainder of the season. In most situations, when a star receiver goes down, there is an upside add that becomes a priority.

This isn’t most situations. This isn’t Jordan Addison stepping in for Justin Jefferson or Joshua Palmer (when healthy) moving into the Mike Williams role. This is a receiver room that lacks impactful talent, and losing Bourne doesn’t change that.

You don’t need to worry about rostering a Patriots receiver in most formats.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: The primary knock on Thomas over the past few seasons has been his lack of health – that is a very viable concern. But, in this role as a TE streamer, fantasy managers are only concerned about the short-term.

Thomas has a touchdown or 6+ targets in five of seven games this season (he did both in Week 8), and as long as he is getting that usage, he deserves to be thought of as a top-12 tight end. If it dries up or an injury occurs, you’re free to move on. It’s a great risk/reward proposition

The Patriots allowed breakout TE weeks to Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer over the past three weeks, and I’d expect another steady performance from Thomas in this spot.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -7.5
• Total: 41.5
• Bears implied points: 17
• Saints implied points: 24.5

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: If he can return from a three-week hiatus, he deserves to be started. That’s less about my confidence in his health and more about the state of this position this week, but still. The Bears were finally drawing up running plays for their unique athlete, and with him averaging over 9.5 yards per pass in each of his past two healthy games, the ceiling came into focus.

Of course, he is still very much a work in progress as a passer, and this Saints defense is the sixth-best unit in the league on a per-play basis, but, again, it’s a bad QB week. I have a hard time thinking that the Bears would put him in harm’s way if he couldn’t protect himself. Under that assumption, he’s a top-10 option for me.

Derek Carr: He might be the least exciting quarterback on fantasy radars, but with three straight top-13 finishes (300+ passing yards in all three games), he’s been better than you think.

Did you know that he has multiple passing touchdowns or 50 attempts in four straight games? What more could you ask for? He has a pair of floor elevators (Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas) and a pair of ceiling raisers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed).

The Taysom Hill snaps under center are annoying, but in Week 9, you can’t be picking nits. Carr is deserving of your attention against a bottom-10 per-play defense and a bottom-five scoring unit.

Running Backs

Roschon Johnson, D’Onta Foreman, and Darrynton Evans: Remember when we went through the Browns backfield situation? The same logic applies here.

• Week 8 snaps: Johnson (24), Foreman (21), Evans (18)
• Week 8 routes: Johnson (13), Foreman (8), Evans (8)

Foreman was started but not involved on third downs. Johnson was eased back into action following the concussion, and Evans was a change-of-pace back. There are several ways this backfield could go this weekend, and it’s not going to get any easier with Khalil Herbert nearing his return.

Due to a lack of clarity, I’m not comfortable ranking any of these backs as a fantasy RB2. It’s likely that one of them produces at that level, but we have to factor in the risk of not knowing who it’ll be. After doing that, I end up ranking situations I have a better feel for higher, even if that situation isn’t exciting (looking at you, Rhamondre Stevenson).

Alvin Kamara: Managers just saw consecutive top-five performances for Kamara, and there are no signs of it slowing down. He has at least 17 carries in four straight games and is averaging a whopping 8.8 targets per game this season.

Do those numbers regress closer to his career norms? Probably, but they are riding their most consistent play-maker hard right now, and that has him as a top-three RB for me – both this week and the rest of the way.

Jamaal Williams: The idea of Williams fits well in this offense, but the usage doesn’t support that thought. He has just 12 total touches in his two games back from the IR (out-snapped 38-15 by Kamara last week in Indy), and Taysom Hill is handling the role of goal-line vulture.

I believe better days are ahead for the 2022 TD king, but I fully understand you needing to move on if your lineup is in need of immediate help.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore: How long ago does that 361-yard, four-touchdown two-week stretch feel? He hasn’t scored or cleared 55 yards in a game since then, despite catching 17 passes in those three games.

During these recent struggles, his aDOT has dipped 46.7% from his rate through five weeks – the Tyson Bagent experience simply isn’t fantasy-friendly. Moore is the top option in this passing game, and it doesn’t matter one bit.

The Saints allow the third-fewest yards per pass, and that has Moore ranking as part of a game sandwich at the WR position:

36. Michael Thomas
37. DJ Moore
38. Rashid Shaheed

If Justin Fields suits up, Moore would jump up 10-12 spots in my WR ranks and move into the strong Flex play tier.

Chris Olave: He dropped a scoring opportunity, and alas, it was another disappointing week for a promising talent. This season, Olave has more double-digit target games (five) than he has top-30 finishes (four). It’s tough to paint an optimistic picture.

Tough, but not impossible. Carr posted a league-high (and season-high for him) 12.3 aDOT last week, proof of shoulder health that has me talking myself into an Olave (career aDOT: 14.0) resurgence. He’s a top-20 play for me, rubbing elbows with other volatile options like Nico Collins and DeVonta Smith.

Michael Thomas: In five of eight games this season, Thomas has finished the week ranked as WR40-52. That level of consistency is the rare mix of impressive and underwhelming. He’s a situational play this week like he is every week – Flex him if you’re in the driver’s seat, look elsewhere in all other situations.

He’s 2022 Diontae Johnson with slightly less volume.

Rashid Shaheed: One of the great philosophical voices of this generation provided the Shaheed weekly analysis 15 years ago.

“I do what I do, and you do what you can do about it”

I’ve always said that Lil’ Wayne missed his calling as a fantasy analyst, and this lyric from “A Milli” makes it clear that he knows his stuff. The past two weeks have been a prime example of exactly that for New Orleans’ elite deep threat:

• Week 7: Eight targets and 5.2 fantasy points
• Week 8: Three targets and 22.8 fantasy points

Shaheed’s role changes for no one, some defenses have the ability to do something about it while others don’t – just like Weezy told us in 2008. Savant.

Can the Bears stop him? They own a low-pressure rate, giving Carr the time needed to find Shaheed down the field. However, Chicago has largely employed a bend-don’t-break philosophy (seventh-lowest opponent aDOT).

In a week where “safe” players are hard to come by, I’ve elevated those players in my rankings with the thought being that avoiding landmines in Week 9 will be profitable.

Under that premise, Shaheed isn’t going to be in most of my lineups. The fact that he ran a route on 88.9% of his snaps last week provides confidence to those going in this direction, but you need to go in with eyes wide open about the range of outcomes.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: What has come off of Moore’s plate lately has gone onto Kmet’s (5+ catches in three of his past four, including 10 grabs last week against the Chargers). He has four top-10 performances on his 2023 resume, and that’s a level of upside that many on your wire do not have access to.

Kmet is a volume-based flier, which is the direction I prefer to go when it comes to tight ends rather than the options that are reliant on scoring. That’s not to say I’m overly confident (TE13 for me), but his path to viable production is reasonably clear and worth buying into for those streaming.

Taysom Hill: Juwan Johnson returned to action (40 snaps and 18 routes), and not only did he not slow down Hill’s momentum, but his presence improved it! New Orleans’ utility knife was fantasy’s top-scoring tight end last week, his third consecutive top-10 finish on the heels of finishing three straight games as TE30 or worse.

He earned only one target, but he is essentially filling the role we thought Jamaal Williams would hold in this offense. Hill scored from 20 yards out on a direct snap and punched in a one-yard TD against the Colts as part of a nine-carry, 63-yard performance.

At this point, we are assuming this unique role until it disappears. Like Williams circa 2022, the value of his carries is superior to most, and he has the skill of cashing in on them. Unlike Williams, Hill is TE eligible and thus, as long as this role holds, possesses a floor that ranks him in the third tier at the position.

Could the role dry up with time? It’s possible, but through eight weeks, the Saints have told us that they are interested in featuring Hill. Until that changes, he’s a top-12 option for me.

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -6
• Total: 43
• Seahawks implied points: 18.5
• Ravens implied points: 24.5

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: I often use this space to talk about not wanting to chase production. Those numbers in the past are meant to help tell us a future story, not to tell the entire story. If fantasy was a game of consistency, what fun would it be?

We’d know the winner after the first month, and you wouldn’t have 20,000 words from me every Thursday morning. Who wants to live in that world?

As far as chasing production goes, don’t do it. Smith was a breakout star of 2022. That was great. WAS. Just like splurging on Yeezy’s WAS a thing. Having either (Smith stock or a pair of Yeezy’s) is no longer in vogue and can actually hurt your credibility.

Smith has just two games with more than 10 rushing yards this season. In fact, he has more games this season in which he didn’t record a single rushing yard. He wasn’t an elite runner last season, but that production helped stabilize his value, and it’s now gone.

Smith isn’t a QB1 for me in any matchup any week, and in a tough spot like this, he falls outside of my top 15.

Lamar Jackson: You know that dud weeks are possible when you sign up for the Jackson experience because the volume isn’t a given. He has thrown no more than 30 passes in three straight games and has checked in under 35 attempts in seven of eight.

The season-low 17 rushing yards last week was a bummer, but again, you take the good with the bad.

Through eight weeks, Jackson has three finishes as QB20 or worse and five inside the top 10. The upside remains special, and we could catch a glimpse of it this weekend against the 30th-ranked red-zone defense.

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker III: I don’t care how good you are. If your team doesn’t have the ball, posting fantasy numbers is an uphill battle. Seattle had the ball for just over 23 minutes against Cleveland last week, and it resulted in just nine touches for Walker (16+ in every game prior).

MORE: Week 9 RB Waiver Wire Targets

Even with the low usage, Walker had a 20+ yard run for the fifth straight game (in fact, the 45-yarder was his longest of the season). The Ravens’ defense is stingy, but they rank 12th in time of possession, not second like the Browns, so I’m comfortable in forecasting a bounce-back effort from K9. I’d even consider him a fine leverage play in GPPs.

Zach Charbonnet: The rookie offered his best performance of the season (64 yards) in a tough matchup with the Browns and certainly looks like he has a future in this league. That doesn’t mean we need to worry about him in 2023.

He has yet to have more than 10 touches in a game this season, and that has all but eliminated any standalone hope for the coming weeks. That said, he’s easily a top-five insurance running back and one that needs to remain rostered (not played) in all formats.

Gus Edwards: He entered Week 8 trending in the right direction and exited the week as a bonafide lineup lock (94 yards and three scores in Arizona). His ceiling is capped due to a lack of versatility, but his floor is as high as anyone in this tier, thanks to the potency of this offense.

Stop picking the nits about what he can’t do and start embracing the role that he has. He’s a rock-solid option against the worst red zone defense in the league and ranks inside of my top 20 at the position with relative ease.

Justice Hill: In a full-PPR league, there’s a situation in which Hill makes sense, given his role in the passing game and the upside that comes with being tethered to this offense. That said, despite a near snap split with Edwards (34-31), his touch count (no more than 11 in five straight games) creates a floor that is simply too low to be trusted in most leagues.

I don’t mind rostering him, but I’d rather have secondary backs like Cam Akers, Jaylen Warren, or Tyler Allgeier if I’m going that far down the ranks for a Flex play.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf: Metcalf returned last week (ribs) and easily set a new season high with 14 targets. While the involvement was there, the production continued to drag in a significant way:

Zero top-20 finishes
Outside of the top 35 in three of his past six games

Smith’s regression has hindered all parts of this passing game, and Metcalf is no exception. That said, as the ribs heal, the production should improve. I’m starting Metcalf in all the spots I have him, and I’m not yet considering benching him.

Tyler Lockett: The veteran has four weeks outside of the top 40, but he’s coming off of a strong 8-81-1 showing against the Browns that resulted in his second top-15 performance of the season.

At this point, you know what you’re getting from Lockett. And by “knowing,” I mean that you know that you don’t know what you’re getting.

The fact that he, like Metcalf, has seen volume on a consistent basis (7+ targets in the majority of his games) is enough to convince me to consider Lockett as a Flex option, but he can be benched by managers with nice receiver depth.

I have him ranked alongside other volatile options like Jahan Dotson and Rashid Shaheed.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie ran a route on two-thirds of Smith’s dropbacks last week, further proof that this team is happy in their three-receiver sets. That’s comforting if you’re pressed into looking JSN’s way when both Metcalf and Lockett are healthy, but he’s still a thin play in that situation due to Smith’s struggles.

Jake Bobo’s name has been circulating of late, and he’s been impressive when given the opportunity, but he’s not yet a threat (10 routes run last week, T-eighth on the team) to Smith-Njigba’s role as the best WR handcuff in the NFL.

Zay Flowers: Flowers posted his worst finish of the season last weekend, snapping a streak of three straight top-30 performances in the process. He has at least five catches in three of his past four games and five times this season, but the lack of upside is a concern (yet to reach 80 receiving yards in a game) given the downside (three games under 50 receiving yards).

Flowers is still a high-end Flex play due to my trust in his role and this offense as a whole. The talent is there, and this offense is one that can play to his strengths. Last week was a bump in the road, not a damning result to react to.

Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr.: I wouldn’t go this direction. Neither receiver is seeing enough volume on a consistent basis to justify rostering, let alone starting.

If I had to pick one to roster, it would be Bateman. But there are boring receivers (Curtis Samuel and Wan’Dale Robinson types) and YOLO receivers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Michael Wilson types) that I’d rather stash.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: The passing game wasn’t really needed in Baltimore’s win over Arizona, and thus, Andrews’ numbers suffered a bit. That said, he did find paydirt (something he’s done in the majority of games this season) and combined with Flowers for over 46% of Jackson’s targets.

Andrews and T.J. Hockenson make up the second tier at the TE position and continue to return profits on their draft-day price tag.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -2.5
• Total: 40
• Buccaneers implied points: 18.8
• Texans implied points: 21.3

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: Last week looked like a smash spot against the Panthers, and, well, if you played Stroud in any capacity, I don’t need to reopen that wound and tell you how it went. Stroud does have a rushing score and multiple passing touchdowns in five of his past six games, and he matched a season-best last week by completing two-thirds of his passes. So, all is not.

You’ve come this far in this article, it’s time to reward you with your weird stat of the week.

72.2% of Texan yards have been gained through the air. Meanwhile, 72.2% of yards against the Buccaneers have come through the air.

Those are both top-seven rates in the league, so buckle up! It’s a brutal week for the QB position, so you might be starting Stroud whether you like it or not. Still, you have some numbers moving in your direction, and you get the Soppe Stamp of Approval.

Running Backs

Rachaad White: It’s almost never pretty with White, but it’s basically always productive. He doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 15 yards this season (92 rush attempts), but with at least three grabs in six straight (he has caught all 13 targets over the past two weeks), the floor is too high to bench White in this era of useless committees.

The Texans have a low opponent aDOT due to their front four creating pressure, a defensive strength that ties in with what White does well. The lack of scoring equity significantly caps his ceiling, but until further notice, his floor in this offense makes him a worthy fantasy starter in all (half or full) PPR leagues.

Dameon Pierce: This man can’t catch a break. Not only is he running behind a struggling line, but he’s also not getting opportunities in the passing game (consecutive games without a target). When he does do something right, it gets wiped off the scoreboard (ruled down inside the inch-yard line last week).

This is trending toward a full-blown committee (Pierce held a 25-23 snap edge over Devin Singletary). The argument could be made that, for fantasy purposes, it already is 50/50 based on the usage in the passing game.

Pierce is averaging 3.0 yards per carry this season and went through October without scoring. He’s in the “break glass in case of emergency” tier at the position — not a good look after an encouraging rookie season.

Devin Singletary: Despite being out-snapped last week by Pierce, Singletary held the slight edge in routes run, which might be the cleanest path to upside given the play of this offensive line.

Singletary should be rostered due to his regular usage, but he’s not going to rank any higher than options like Tyler Allgeier or Justice Hill types. That’s outside of my top 30 at the position.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Being held under 50 receiving yards in three of four games in a low-octane offense would be cause for concern in most situations, but Evans’ ability to find pay dirt (TD in five of seven games this season) continues to buoy his value.

This is a little smoke-and-mirrors to his campaign. He has a 66.7% catch rate this season without a 25-yard catch in four of five games. The floor is lower for Evans than those he ranks around due to his reliance on scoring, but his skill set matches up well with what Mayfield does, which keeps him inside my top 20 at the position.

Chris Godwin: For the fourth straight game, Godwin was able to produce a chunk play, and he even found the end zone for the first time this season. It was clear that the Bucs wanted to get him going early, but with just one catch in the second half, their commitment to him didn’t last.

Could he have caught the Hail Mary at the end of last week and given you an extra 12 points? Yes, but he didn’t. At the end of the day, Godwin has registered 51-66 receiving yards in the majority of his games this season and is a narrow range of outcomes option.

Will you win your week because of a Godwin explosion? Unlikely, but he’s just as rarely going to tank your matchup – that holds value in this age of sporadic production. In this contest, Godwin remains what he has been all season for me: a low-end WR2 that is a good bet for 8-10 fantasy points.

Nico Collins: I laid out the case above for why this could be a reasonable bounce-back spot for the Texans’ pass game, and that starts with Collins. He’s the unquestioned WR1 in this offense, but that doesn’t mean consistent production.

• Three games under 40 yards
• Four games of 80+ yards (two over 145 yards)

I trust the volume to rebound as Stroud gets back on track, and that should land him comfortably inside of fantasy lineups this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed opposing WR1s to catch 27 of 34 targets (79.4%) over the past three weeks.

Tank Dell: Robert Woods (foot) is expected to miss the next week or two, which opens up 7.2 targets. Could Dell be the one who benefits most from that? It’s certainly possible, especially with the concussion seemingly a thing of the past. He led Texans WRs in snaps and routes in Week 8.

MORE: Fantasy FAAB Picks Week 9

Dell is unlikely to be a consistent producer, but he has enough upside to be on your Flex radar. He has multiple carries in each of his past three games, something that points to their desire to get his hands on the ball.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: After scoring in three straight games, Schultz averaged one yard per target in an underwhelming Houston performance.

On the bright side, he did post an 81.5% route participation in an offense that still does skew toward the pass than the run. For me, that role is enough to put him in the low-end TE1 conversation with Kyle Pitts and Trey McBride.

The line between starting option and waiver wire fodder is borderline translucent. I’m willing to give him one more week in my lineup.

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers

• Spread: Colts -2.5
• Total: 44
• Colts implied points: 23.3
• Panthers implied points: 20.8

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: The “Mighty Mustache” is on the streaming radar because of what his presence has meant to the Colts’ game flow. There’s obviously more at play than just Minshew, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that in the past three games, there have been 199 points scored.

That’s a number that is tough to comprehend, but it’s true. Minshew has thrown over 40 passes in three of his four starts, with the lone exception being a multi-rush TD effort. The Panthers’ defense is still very gettable, and the Colts have been putting Minshew in a spot to take full advantage.

Bryce Young: I airballed on Young last week and won’t be making that mistake again this week. The rookie only has one multi-pass TD game this season and hasn’t had a 10-yard rush since Week 2. He doesn’t check any of the efficiency metrics (5.6 YPA and 8.8 yards per completion) and simply doesn’t have enough projectable upside to truly matter.

Keep an eye on Carolina games — Young could be a factor in the near future, just not the present.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: We are getting there, and I’m not going to miss the bus when we arrive at stardom.

After out-snapping fellow RB Zack Moss 43-28 last week (26-14 edge in routes run), Taylor continues to trend toward the bell-cow role we want him to assume.

In Week 6, he started with a 40-yard catch. The following week, and tallied both a 20+ yard reception and rush. Last week, he had a 40+ yard carry. Those splash plays are great to see and fueling his efficiency gains: In his first two games this season, he averaged 2.6 yards per carry and seven carries per game. In the last two, he’s upped it to 5.7 yards per carry and 15 carries a game.

Remember how he ended last season before getting hurt? Four straight 20-carry games.
What about 2021? A cool 27.3 touches per game from Weeks 10-17. The point being that if he’s deemed a full-go, he could touch the ball as much as anybody by the time the fantasy playoffs begin.

Zack Moss: Taylor’s gain is obviously Moss’ loss, but the backup ball carrier is doing everything in his power to hold onto enough work to matter, and I think he has at least one more week of Flex value.

Moss has scored four times in his four games alongside Taylor and has a 20+ yard rush in five of his past six. His lack of involvement in the passing game (no more than two targets in four of his past five games) is less than ideal, but this Colts team clearly has no problem in being physical up front and clearing space for Moss to rack up fantasy points.

He’s a low-end RB2 for me this week in a good spot, and the play might be to leverage that fact in the trade market. If you’re a winning team, you can sacrifice giving up some short-term production with an eye on the playoffs. If the manager of Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane is struggling, could you give up Moss and a Flex-worthy player for him? It’s worth exploring.

Chuba Hubbard: Thomas Brown took over the play-calling duties for Carolina, and the former running back made a pretty clear statement in getting Hubbard 17 touches. His faith in Hubbard – combined with his lack of trust in fellow RB Miles Sanders (Raheem Blackshear out-touched him 5-2) – and we have an RB2 on our hands.

Hubbard hasn’t proven to be a viable option in his career up to this point, but let’s not forget that he’s just 24 years old. It would appear safe to label him a bell cow until otherwise noted, and that role alone is going to make him a fantasy starter most weeks.

Miles Sanders: Reports surfaced pregame last week that Sanders was in the process of being demoted, and they proved to be very accurate. I’m not dropping him yet — I need more than a single game of sample size before making a drastic move like that, but things are certainly trending in that direction.

I’m very skeptical about this offense being able to sustain two fantasy RBs. Sanders looks like the odd man out, and that could be confirmed if this week looks like last. Bench and hold, for now.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman’s touchdown last week came on a designed play to get him in space on fourth-and-inches, giving him a score in consecutive games after being held out of the end zone for five straight games.

Minshew can be sporadic, but the fact that Pittman has been targeted at least 11 times in five of eight games this season speaks to this offense’s confidence in drawing up plays for their top receiver.

Of course, we need his 13 targets to result in more than the 40 yards they did last week, but I’m comfortable in counting on the volume and hoping that some semblance of efficiency emerges. He’s my WR23 this week and should be started in all formats.

Josh Downs: He’ll be behind Pittman in the target department consistently, but his targets carry enough value to put him on fantasy radars. He has been a WR2 over the past month – a sample size that is large enough to buy into.

MORE: Week 9 WR Waiver Wire Targets

The third-round pick has a 30-yard catch or 8+ targets in five straight games – a usage that is fantasy-friendly. I have him ranked as a top 30 receiver, ahead of bigger names like Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper and Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins.

Adam Thielen: Say what you will about Young, but Thielen is aiding his development in a major way. The rookie rewarded the veteran with a 35.5% target share last week and has fed him 59 targets over his past five games.

The usage isn’t going anywhere, nor are Thielen’s route-winning ways. The floor/ceiling combination is higher this year than it’s ever been for the former Viking, and he deserves to be ranked as a top 15 option because of it.

When all is said and done, he could prove to be the pick of the year in fantasy drafts.

Tight Ends

Tommy Tremble: Yes, he scored for the second time in three games. No, he doesn’t matter in the slightest. Hayden Hurst played 14 fewer snaps but ran two more routes, making Tremble a product of being in the right place at the right time more than anything of note for our purposes.

Fun fact – the Panthers played three tight ends in Week 8, and they all have first/last name alliteration. So if you run, are a decent athlete, and have a first name that starts with the same letter as your last name, you might have a new career path!

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: Raiders -2.5
• Total: 37.5
• Giants implied points: 17.5
• Raiders implied points: 20

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: The neck injury that has cost Jones three weeks is reported to be a thing of the past, and that means there is going to be fantasy interest here in a good spot against the Raiders on short rest.

Not for me.

Jones has one finish better than QB24 in his five starts this season, and this offense is void of playmakers. Add in the potential for this injury to cap his rushing upside, and there’s just not a clear path for Jones to return value in his return to action.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: The rate stats from last week’s loss to the Giants are downright silly.

• 41.7% target share
• 87.8% of RB rush attempts
• 90.8% of RB rushing yards

How unsatisfying is this offense right now? One of the most explosive players in our game touched the ball 39 times and totaled 14.3 fantasy points. Let’s put some context on that – Austin Ekeler had 16.1 fantasy points on his first nine touches on Sunday Night Football.

Barkley’s role is truly unique, and that level of involvement for a rare talent keeps him viable, but in this offense, the quality of those touches is never going to be there. He gets the benefit of facing a bad defense that is on short rest, so you’re playing Barkley this week – I just wouldn’t recommend watching the game if you can help it.

Josh Jacobs: This has been a maddening year for Jacobs’ managers after his breakout in 2022, but I thought he ran hard against the Lions on Monday night. He gets the fourth-worst per-carry rush defense in the league this weekend.

If the running game can get on track (15+ carries in six of eight games), Jacobs has a clear path to return to his RB1 value. He’s on pace for 91.4 targets this season and is the focal point of an offense that is currently searching for answers.

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson: We saw some nice volume initially from Robinson, but with just three targets over the past two weeks, there’s no need to hold onto this low-ceiling option. Yes, we are in a pass-happy league, but no, not every team has to have a meaningful fantasy receiver.

Darius Slayton: If you’re throwing darts in times of desperation, Slayton has big-play upside and is always on the field (74 of 75 snaps last week). You’re aware of the risk that comes with looking Slayton’s way, but there is (slightly) more upside than his season stat line suggests.

Davante Adams: It’s been a month since the last time Adams produced a top-30 finish at the WR position, and fantasy managers are getting antsy. OK, that might be the understatement of the century. It’s been nothing short of maddening, but could a change under center return him to his glory days?

Probably not. Aiden O’Connell showed some promise in the preseason, but he’s not peak Aaron Rodgers. That said, a change can’t hurt Adams’ value, and I’m hopeful that he trends in the right direction against an aggressive Giants defense that occasionally leaves receivers in single coverage spots down the field.

Adams is a viable WR2 for me, albeit one that does carry a wide range of outcomes. (Hey, a wide range is better than a narrow range of bad outcomes, right?)

Jakobi Meyers: The move from Garoppolo to O’Connell is not something we love to see. Not that Meyers can’t win on routes, but the Garoppolo pairing with a loyal coach in Josh McDaniels was a perfect storm.

Meyers is in the opposite spot as Adams — we wanted anything BUT change. After news of the tweak under center, I moved Meyers down from the WR2 tier into the average Flex play range. I’m still playing him, but the confidence is lower than in weeks past.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: The hope here is that the hamstring that resulted in Waller’s early exit last week is behind him. But it’s been nagging at him all season and needs to be factored into his Week 9 rankings.

Keep tabs on this situation, but should we get word that he’ll be limited, there are a handful of similar tight ends that you can add at the last minute if need be (either Charger TE, Michael Mayer, and Cole Kmet are all live options if Taysom Hill and Logan Thomas are already rostered).

Michael Mayer: The rookie has shown glimpses of the potential that we know is there, but as the fourth option in this broken offense and pass game, Mayer’s days as a fantasy asset are in the future, not the present.

If he can string a few high-volume games together down the stretch, maybe he will emerge from the TE blob as a streaming candidate, but given the state of this offense, there’s no reason to tempt fate and go in his direction.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

• Spread: Eagles -3
• Total: 46
• Cowboys implied points: 21.5
• Eagles implied points: 24.5

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: With consecutive top-five finishes, some are jumping on board the Prescott train moving forward. That’s a dangerous leap that I’m not willing to make (don’t forget that he wasn’t a top 15 QB once before this recent run), but given the way this week is shaping up at the position, Prescott is a fine play this week.

Prescott lit up these Eagles in Week 16 last season (27-for-35 passing with 347 yards and three TDs), and Philadelphia did allow Sam Howell to complete 39 of 52 passes last week for 397 yards and four scores. Look for the efficiency and rushing to regress from the past two weeks with time, but you can feel good about rolling him out in your starting lineup for one more week — and then sell, sell, sell!

Jalen Hurts: Consecutive games with under 25 rushing yards after not having a single such game through six weeks is noteworthy, but I’m not sure I’d run either if I was completing 76.3% of my passes with one of every 9.5 attempts resulting in a TD.

You’re starting Hurts every single week with confidence, and he’ll be a chalky DFS play this week. I want to see statistical proof that his knee is near full strength (I don’t think it was a mistake that they used the fake Tush Push last week), but as long as he is active, he’s a strong fantasy asset.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: I will die on this hill — or maybe I’ll thrive on it? Eventually — please?

Pollard has just one top-10 finish this season, despite the back being on pace for 325 touches. That’s tough to digest for a player who entered this season with “extremely efficient” as his calling card.

We are past Halloween, and the Cowboys have had two games decided by fewer than 20 points – two! That has resulted in a bunch of weird game scripts and is something I’m willing to bet against sustaining.

With the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and Detroit Lions lined up in succession to end the fantasy season, is there any question at all how Dallas will plan on running their offense when your season is on the line?

Unless something changes in a dramatic way between now and then, I don’t think the Cowboys have any chance at matching those offenses punch for punch, so we should be looking at #PeakPollardSZN when it matters most.

That’s the long way of me saying that Pollard’s value is at rock bottom and that I’d try to take advantage. This matchup with the Eagles doesn’t look great on paper, but it is one of those spots where the Cowboys should be run-heavy. The Washington Commanders did just average 5.3 yards per carry against the “Birds.”

If this game gets away from Dallas a bit, Pollard’s 86.7% catch rate this season, along with the fact that he caught a season-high six passes in this matchup last season, gives him the potential to bail you out. He remains a top-10 play for me and my top trade target in the few spots in which I don’t already have him.

D’Andre Swift: A fake “Tush Push” last week got Swift into the end zone from seven yards out and saved an otherwise underwhelming fantasy day against Washington. He has at least 17 touches in every game since his puzzling opener, giving him as much projectable volume as anybody this side of San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.

Speaking of McCaffrey, his 49ers are responsible for one of Dallas’ two losses this season. If you think Philadelphia adds to that loss total, it is worth noting that in their defeats, the Cowboys have allowed a total of 392 rushing yards and four scores.

I understand that Hurts’ role on this offense is annoying inside the 5-yard line, but that’s kind of like criticizing an extended TV series for their final episode. Could some of these drives finish in a better way for you? Yes, but the production leading up to that point – much like the years you spent with your favorite show – gave you plenty to be thankful about.

Yes, I’m still trying to cope with the poor ending to Game of Thrones, but I still am happy I watched the show. Start Swift and enjoy the show, even if some drives end differently than how you’d like.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: If you forgot how good Lamb was during the three-week stretch in which he totaled 128 yards, he’s now caught 19 of 23 targets over his past two games with 275 yards. The game plan was clearly to get him involved last week (he had four catches before a single one of his teammates had multiple targets), and that is Dallas’ best path to success through the air.

Season-long managers are playing Lamb with the utmost confidence. In DFS, I’m passing on Lamb due to his paths to failure in this specific matchup. Can the Eagles pressure Prescott into a poor outing? Do the Cowboys go run heavy to shorten this game? There’s more risk in this profile than I like when it comes to paying up for a top-three receiver in terms of price.

Brandin Cooks: I don’t believe that the WR2 role in Dallas matters for standard-sized leagues, but it would appear that Cooks has earned that title. Not only did he pull down a 25-yard end-zone target in a revenge spot last week, but he also ran a route on 68.3% of Prescott dropbacks (Michael Gallup: 51.2%).

MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 9

Cooks has more than four targets in just one game this season, a lack of volume that keeps him outside of my top 40 at the position this week. He could score for a third consecutive game, but if he doesn’t, you’re going to be falling way behind in your matchup if you elect to Flex him. This is a risk/reward player with more risk.

Michael Gallup: Move on. Gallup hasn’t finished a week as a top 65 receiver in a month and has been held under 25 yards in five of seven games this season. Jalen Tolbert’s role took a step forward last week, hinting that Gallup is closer to WR4 in Dallas than WR2.

A.J. Brown: With his sixth straight game of 125+ receiving yards, Brown made NFL history last week and looks as unguardable as any receiver in the league right now. Remember back in Week 2 when Brown was visibly irritated on the sidelines, and we all speculated it was about his role? If you extend his production since that moment for 17 games:

• 139 catches
• 2,355 yards
• 14 touchdowns

Is the upcoming schedule brutal? It is (DAL twice, KC, BUF, SF, and their bye), but we are looking at one of the few matchup-proof players in the game. His highlight reel 16-yard touchdown last week proved that quality of defense doesn’t necessarily impact Brown’s potential. Enjoy the ride!

DeVonta Smith: It was good to see Smith score from 38 yards out last week in Washington (his first TD and his longest reception since Week 2), but it should be noted that the touchdown was more the result of a blown coverage than anything else. Also worth mentioning are his numbers this month.

October numbers:

• Against Washington (two games): 14 catches on 16 targets for 177 yards and a TD
• Against everyone else (three games): 10 catches on 21 targets for 99 yards and zero TDs

Over the past two games, Smith has hauled in 11 of 12 targets, a drastic improvement from his 62.2% catch rate prior. Use the Week 8 stat line as a step in the right direction, but understand that you’re not out of the woods yet after three straight finishes outside of the top 40.

With Gardner Minshew under center in Week 16 last season, Smith did light up the Cowboys for 113 yards and a pair of scores. He is a mid-range WR2 for me this week – one that you’re playing and hoping to avoid the floor performance.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: The second-year TE was able to find the end zone on the first drive last week in the win over the Rams (18-yard catch, all air yards), his first score since Week 2.

My lack of confidence in the WR depth behind Lamb keeps Ferguson as a role play, but with eight total targets over his past three games, the floor is lower than any of the other five “I’m comfortable penciling this guy in weekly” options at the position.

You’re playing him in a matchup where the Eagles may force Prescott to check down with regularity, but that’s not to say he’s a fool-proof option.

Dallas Goedert: Trust the process. For the fifth time in seven games since the Week 1 goose egg, Goedert saw at least seven targets. Yes, he turned those looks into just 5.6 fantasy points, but at this position, volume in a strong offense is all you can ask for if you don’t have a member of the “Big Three” tight ends.

I do worry about his per-target upside and the fact that he has just seven catches in total across three games with the Cowboys since Micah Parsons was drafted. Could Philadelphia use Goedert to chip him in an effort to not let him take over the game? That worry has me down a little on Goedert this week, but “down” on him only slides him to TE5 in my ranks.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Bengals -2.5
• Total: 48.5
• Bills implied points: 23
• Bengals implied points: 25.5

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: With a rushing touchdown in five of his past six games, Allen is picking his spots as effectively as ever. By completing a career-best 71.7% of his passes (up from 63.3% last season), the Buffalo signal-caller’s fantasy floor is nothing short of elite.

He guided 61.5% of his passes in the direction of WRs Gabe Davis or Stefon Diggs in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, demonstrating his ability to get his top play-makers involved. This offense has yet to really hit its stride, and yet, Allen is still a high-level fantasy option.

Joe Burrow: Is Burrow back? Are the Bengals back? Does the AFC need to be put on notice?

After a 28 of 32 effort in San Francisco for 283 yards and three scores against the 49ers last week, I’m not saying Joe Cool and the boys aren’t back. In the convincing win, over 56% of his passes went to WRs Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, reminding us of just how lethal this trio can be when everyone is right.

Now, it should be noted that they were able to succeed last week after their bye. That allowed them to scheme up plays and get their star players as close to full strength as they’ve been this season. How their bodies will react to four quarters of physical football is something we won’t know until game day, but there’s no case to be made for benching Burrow this week.

He’s firmly atop my third tier of QBs this week, and that checks him at QB6 for me this week in what should be a great matchup.

Running Backs

James Cook: Without much touchdown equity, Cook’s ceiling isn’t all that appealing, and with only one game of more than 15 carries this season, his floor is a bit of a concern.

MORE: Should I Trade James Cook in Fantasy Football Right Now?

The running back’s role in the passing game determines his weekly rank, and this is a tough spot. Teams have been targeting the Bengals’ secondary more down the field than anything, and that means a third underwhelming week as a pass catcher in four games is certainly a possibility this weekend.

I’m not benching Cook due to his role as the lead back in an elite offense, but he’s slipping down my ranks and is a middling RB2 for me against Cincinnati.

Latavius Murray: The veteran only played one-third of the snaps on Thursday night and can be dropped if you’re in a roster crunch with bye weeks back. Murray has recorded more than six touches just twice this season and hasn’t scored since Week 3.

I’m not burning a roster spot on a clear secondary back in a pass-happy offense with a goal-line vulture starting under center.

Joe Mixon: He ran for a season-high 87 yards against the 49ers last week and scored his only touchdown of October to ice the game. I’ve been encouraged by the floor he creates weekly by way of the pass game (3+ catches in five of seven games), a skill he has continued to develop with time.

Mixon was able to retain value during the down days for this offense early on and could use the team’s overall health as a way to work his way back inside my top 10. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry on Sunday (first seven weeks: 3.8 yards per carry), and if that is here to stay, along with increased scoring equity as a result of this offense trending up, you should have zero concerns about locking him in weekly.

I have him ranked as a fringe RB1 – right about where I had him back in August. Mixon’s best days should be ahead of him, and that makes him an asset you can bank on in a big way as you chase fantasy glory.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: It’s now four straight games with at least 11 targets for Diggs, and he is pacing for 136 grabs this season. The receiver hasn’t averaged more than 10 yards per catch in three straight games, so if you’re going to nitpick, there’s that.

Diggs is on my shortlist for fantasy MVP. There are players averaging more points per game, but his weekly floor holds a lot of weight when trying to determine the most impactful fantasy asset.

Gabe Davis: Was last week’s win over the Bucs a career turning point for Davis? That might be a little dramatic, but he pulled in nine of 12 targets, giving us a taste of the volume we have only dreamt of in the past.

The raw numbers are encouraging, but it was the path to earning them that has me very interested in. During Weeks 1-7, Davis established an aDOT of 14.97 yards, while last week, he saw an aDOT of just 6.67 yards.

We know Davis has elite upside on a per-target basis, and that’s not going to change. However, if this is a usage change, he could become a weekly lineup lock. The athletic tools aren’t going anywhere, and a lower aDOT role has the ability to elevate the floor of a player who is always on the field. Davis was sixth in routes run last season and ran a route on 45 of 46 Week 8 dropbacks.

Buffalo runs through the gauntlet in terms of opponents from Weeks 11-17 — matchups that are going to require Davis’ route tree to be flexible if he is going to hold value to us. Managers with Davis need to keep an eye on the type of routes he is running, but Week 8 was a massive step in the right direction.

I’m cautiously optimistic in the growth we saw last week, and that has me ranking Davis as a strong Flex play.

Ja’Marr Chase: With Tee Higgins banged up and/or struggling through seven weeks, Chase owned a 32.9% target and had cleared 70 receiving yards in four straight games. How would his production be impacted off of the bye with Higgins (theoretically) healthy?

It wasn’t. He posted his third 100-yard game of the season and saw 37.5% of Burrow’s targets. Chase should be considered nothing short of a top-five receiver moving forward, with his name being on the short list of receivers who can lead the position in fantasy points in any given week.

Tee Higgins: Five catches for 69 yards was easily Higgins’ second-best performance of the season, and there was a lot to like, even if the overall fantasy production was still under what you drafted him for.

First, he caught 83.3% of his targets, a serious step up from the 38.9% rate he posted through seven weeks. Obviously, a catch percentage somewhere in the middle of those is what we can project, but his being on the same page as Burrow for the entirety of a professional football game is certainly a step in the right direction.

I have him ranked back-to-back with Gabe Davis this week toward the bottom half of my WR2 tier for Week 9. I’m comfortable in starting him against a banged-up Bills defense in a potential shootout, but with the understanding that there is some risk to take into consideration.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: Dawson Knox was placed on IR ahead of Week 8’s win, and Kincaid wasted zero time in flashing the upside that made him a first-round pick in April. For the season, the rookie has caught 30 of 34 targets, a level of efficiency that makes him a must-start if he is going to see the 7-8 targets that he has seen over the past two weeks.

The volume is one thing; the volume in scoring situations is another. Buffalo schemed up a shovel pass to him inside the 5-yard line and made him the first read a few plays later in tight.

Oh, and then there was the Allen rollout to the right, where Kincaid ran with him, and the duo connected on a 22-yard score. Kincaid isn’t yet in the third tier of the position, but he is comfortably in tier four. That is a fantasy starter most weeks.

Congratulations — you’ve survived the Hunger Games-like situation that is the TE streaming wars. As a reward, you will, you’ll have one fewer headache this week and will sleep fine on Tuesday night without having to pour in mental energy to the free agent pool.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets

• Spread: Chargers -3
• Total: 41.5
• Chargers implied points: 22.3
• Jets implied points: 19.3

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: If Herbert could play the NFC North every game of the year, we’d be in business. He lit up the Bears on Sunday night and now has completed 71-of-87 passes for 703 yards and six touchdowns in two games against the North this season.

The Week 8 matchup was a perfect one against a low-pressure Chicago defense. Subsequently, Herbert was comfortable for the entire evening. That’s unlikely to be the case this weekend, with the Jets being a bottom-three blitzing team that creates pressure at a top-three rate.

The matchup has Herbert ranking at the bottom of my third tier of signal-callers this week (Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow being the other members), but still an easy start in all formats.

We have had a weird trend through eight weeks. Herbert has multiple passing scores in his past four games against non-divisional games but has failed to accomplish that in his two divisional games this season. I’m not reading into this development, but I did want to share it with you the people – four of Los Angeles’ final five games come within the division.

Zach Wilson: Things are getting worse before they get better for Wilson. With the Jets now winning three straight games, is Aaron Rodgers approaching stash range? Over the past two games, Wilson has one touchdown pass (let’s face it, all he did on that score was get the ball to Breece Hall and watched him cook) and has completed just 52.2% of his passes.

New York is remaining competitive despite its quarterback, and even with the limitations under center, they’ve thrown the ball over 35 times in three of their past five contests. It’s fair to wonder what Rodgers would provide for fantasy purposes if his miracle recovery is trending in the direction we are led to believe.

For this week, Wilson is slightly above skill position players for the OP spot in Superflex formats. The Jets just don’t need him to produce and are trending toward asking him to do very little, even in a favorable matchup.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: The former All-Pro has yet to run for 50 yards since returning from injury (43 carries without a rush gaining more than seven yards), but he does have a 28+ yard catch in three of his four games this season, reminding us that his versatility is tough to completely slow down.

MORE: Austin Ekeler Fantasy Value

We have a six-year sample size of Ekeler being efficient on the ground, so I’m not worried about that portion of his profile. Christian McCaffrey is the only running back I’d confidently rank above Ekeler for the remainder of the season.

Breece Hall: Big-time players make big-time plays, and while Hall continues to struggle to find room to run, he continues to come through for fantasy managers.

Against the Giants last week, he averaged under five feet per carry (12 carries for 17 yards), yet he finished with 18.3 fantasy points. He has caught 11 passes (for 130 yards and a touchdown) over his past two games, as the Jets are clearly scheming up ways to get him in space.

Do I worry that none of his 24 carries in his past two games have gained more than nine yards? Or that if you remove unpredictable runs of 70+ yards, his yards per carry dips from 5.7 to 3.8? Yeah, I do.

That creates an uncomfortable floor that most inside my top 15 at the position aren’t in danger of hitting.

That said, he gets a leaky Chargers defense that is traveling west-to-east following a night game. His 26.5% target share from last week is unlikely to remain, but the fact that they are that committed to getting him looks is all I need in this spot to rank him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 across the board.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: With at least eight catches or a score in five of his past six games, Allen is as reliable as it gets right now. His target share is flirting with 30%, and he has more receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined this season.

Could he be the highest-scoring player over the final four weeks of the fantasy season?

• Week 14 vs. Broncos
• Week 15 at Raiders
• Week 16 vs. Bills
• Week 17 at Broncos

Allen is proving to be one of the most valuable picks in the first half of drafts this summer, a reminder that the age curve is a guide, not a crystal ball.

Joshua Palmer: The 24-year-old was underwhelming against the Bears, with a mid-game knee injury not helping things. He returned to the game, but at less than full strength in a one-sided game, there was no need for the Bolts to overextend their WR2.

MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart Week 9

With the knee injury continuing to linger, Palmer has been ruled OUT for Week 9. Make sure to adjust your lineups accordingly. Ekeler sees a slight uptick in projected target share, as does Quentin Johnston, though counting on the rookie in this tough matchup is difficult.

Quentin Johnston: Simi Fehoko (fifth-rounder from 2021) scored on his only reception, a frustrating development for those trying to remain patient on Johnston. The rookie, however, did set season highs in catches (five), targets (six), and yards (50) against Chicago.

The injury to Palmer opens up a door, one that requires Johnston to be rostered in all formats. He’s not ranking inside of my top 30 this week, but he could bail you out in the final game of the week if you’re truly stuck without reliable options. The range of outcomes is wide, though one of those tail results is a matchup altering performance in the positive direction!

Garrett Wilson: The budding star has at least a dozen targets or a touchdown in five of seven games this season (100 yards on 13 targets against the Giants last week). Of course, the per-target value is capped due to lack of firepower in this offense — that’s not going to change.

Despite an explosive skill set, Wilson only has one 35+ yard catch this season (68 targets). Given the depth at the position, Wilson hasn’t cracked my top 24 fantasy receivers since the Rodgers injury, and this week won’t be the first. He’s trending in that direction, however, and remains a strong Flex option in all leagues.

Allen Lazard: Thoughts and prayers to you if you’re looking for a secondary Jets pass catcher. In leagues with deep benches, Lazard can be stashed after a season-high six targets, but we aren’t talking about a player you’d ever consider with Wilson under center. Throwing him at the end of your roster is a cheap bet on Rodgers returning when it matters most for fantasy managers.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: After scoring in consecutive games, Everett (hip) sat out last week’s game against the Bears. He is a good player in a pass-happy offense, so he needs to be kept on your radar, but he’s also splitting targets with a touchdown vulture in Donald Parham, and that makes establishing any semblance of consistency near impossible.

If he proves to be fully healthy entering the weekend, he’ll be on my list of viable tight end streamers, but he is not a must-roster option.