Going into Week 5, we have only two undefeated teams remaining and another team that has yet to get into the win column. In our Week 5 NFL picks, are we betting on the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs to continue their steaks and for the Jacksonville Jaguars to get their first win of the season? Let’s dive right into the NFL predictions for Week 5.
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Breaking Down Latest NFL Week 5 Odds and Game Previews
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Oct. 4.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) — London
- Moneyline: Jets +120, Vikings -142
- Total: 40
Are the Vikings for real?
At 4-0 with wins against three teams inside the top 10 of shortest odds to win the Super Bowl going into this season, they very well could be.
The New York Jets, meanwhile, remain an enigma.
Last week, Aaron Rodgers and Co. failed to score a single offensive touchdown in their shocking 10-9 loss to the Broncos.
While their offense struggled, the Jets’ defense held the Broncos to under 200 total yards.
The Vikings’ defense, meanwhile, has been even more impressive. For the season, they’re first in the NFL in defensive EPA and have shut down three of the best offenses three weeks in a row. Sure, the Packers scored 29 points against them last week, but 22 of them came in the fourth quarter.
This is a game where I’m targeting the under, though the total has already dropped from a key number of 41.5.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Jets 17
Pick: Under 40.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
- Moneyline: Ravens -135, Bengals +114
- Total: 49
Only the Jaguars, Rams, and Commanders have a worse defensive EPA than the Cincinnati Bengals so far this season, and they’re also 30th in success rate in defending the run.
Considering the matchup against a Baltimore Ravens offense that has rushed for an average of 272.5 yards over the last two weeks, that could be a recipe for disaster for Cincinnati.
The Bengals’ offense, meanwhile, trails only the Commanders in offensive EPA since its Week 1 loss to the Patriots. The third-best offense during that span: the Ravens.
Usually, AFC North divisional matchups scream unders, but with these two potent offenses and one struggling defensive unit, I like the over here despite it being the second-highest total of the week.
Prediction: Ravens 31, Bengals 27
Pick: Over 48.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Browns +140, Commanders -166
- Total: 43.5
The Washington Commanders have been the hottest team in football over the last three weeks, and they’re facing a Cleveland Browns team at home that nobody wants to bet on.
Yet, after this point spread opened at Commanders -3.5 on Sunday, there has been no movement. In fact, there is even juice on the Browns getting 3.5 points, indicating that the spread might even come down. Very fishy to say the least.
The Browns’ calling card last season was their top-ranked defense. While they haven’t sustained last year’s production, they have still been a top-11 unit in yards per game allowed, EPA, and success rate.
This Commanders offense, however, has been an absolute wagon to start this season.
Commanders offense through four games: pic.twitter.com/7wFTElMzbZ
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) September 30, 2024
This pace is obviously not sustainable, but it would take a massive drop off for the Commanders to not have one of the best offenses in the NFL — they have been that explosive.
Their defense, on the other hand, has been the complete opposite. Even after holding the Cardinals to 14 points and 296 yards, the Commanders still have the NFL’s worst defense by EPA and success rate.
But luckily for the Commanders, they’ll go against Deshaun Watson, who continues to be one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. In this matchup, between this Commanders defense and Watson-led Browns offense, something’s gotta give, and I’m going to side with Cleveland here.
Prediction: Commanders 23, Browns 21
Pick: Browns +3.5 (-118)
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Houston Texans
- Moneyline: Bills -115, Texans -105
- Total: 47.5
The Buffalo Bills looked like the best team in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season, but their 3-0 start came against the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars.
They’re still a very good team obviously, but I think they’re at a disadvantage in this matchup on the road against the Houston Texans.
Although Houston’s run game hasn’t been as efficient with Joe Mixon out, C.J. Stroud continues to be a much better quarterback at home.
For his career, here are Stroud’s home (10 games) and road splits (nine games):
- Record: 8-2 at home, 4-5 on the road
- Touchdown-to-interception ratio: 5:1 at home, 3:1 on the road
- Passing yards per game: 309.1 at home, 230.1 on the road
- Yards per attempt: 8.73 at home, 7.20 on the road
This Houston offense is usually one I back at home, and I’m going to continue riding this trend this week.
Prediction: Texans 27, Bills 24
Pick: Texans over 23.5 (-115)
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4)
- Moneyline: Panthers +164, Bears -198
- Total: 41
The Chicago Bears are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4. In their two wins, they have been outgained by an average of 77 yards, have had a turnover differential of +4, and their opponents went a combined 2-6 in the red zone.
The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, are a much better team with Andy Dalton under center. Since benching Bryce Young, the Panthers have a top-10 offense by yards per game, EPA per play, and success rate.
Caleb Williams might become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL one day, but right now, he is just another rookie, and this Bears offense has been very underwhelming. This is too many points for the Bears to be given, even at home, in my opinion.
Prediction: Bears 21, Panthers 20
Pick: Panthers +4 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Colts +124, Jaguars -148
- Total: 45.5
It looks like Anthony Richardson will be sidelined this week, meaning Joe Flacco will be getting the start for the Indianapolis Colts.
While Richardson has exciting potential, he is extremely raw at the moment, and Flacco in my opinion is a huge upgrade for the Colts offensively.
Without both Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, I’m expecting a pass-heavy game plan from a Colts offense that has been just 26th in pass rate over expectation so far this season.
With this projection, I’m anticipating this matchup to be a higher-scoring game than the total implies.
Although I’m inclined to pick the Jaguars here, I feel more safe in taking the over.
Prediction: Jaguars 27, Colts 24
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1)
- Moneyline: Dolphins -110, Patriots -110
- Total: 36.5
Considering these two offenses, it’s surprising that this total isn’t even the lowest of the week.
After Tua Tagovailoa suffered his concussion in the first quarter of Week 2, the Miami Dolphins went 10 consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown until Tyler Huntley scored with 3:36 remaining last week.
The New England Patriots’ offense, meanwhile, isn’t any better. For the season, they’re last in yards per game and success rate.
This is a game I have both zero interest in watching or betting on. If you’re into teasers, however, it could be wise to tease either side here, as neither team is capable of winning by a considerable margin.
Prediction: Patriots 13, Dolphins 10
Pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +280, 49ers -355
- Total: 50
Without Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers’ offense has remained a juggernaut this season.
Even after leading the league in almost every passing metric last season, Brock Purdy has elevated his play through four weeks.
This week, they get a matchup against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is a bottom-five unit in almost every metric.
But coming off a disappointing 42-14 loss to the Commanders, this seems like a strong buy-low spot for Arizona.
According to The Action Network, teams to lose by 17+ points versus a team who won by 17+ points the previous week are 113-77 ATS over the last 20 years.
Furthermore, Kyler Murray has thrived as an underdog in his career, with a record of 26-16-2 ATS.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Cardinals 21
Pick: Cardinals +7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +124, Broncos -148
- Total: 35.5
The only game with a lower total than Tyler Huntley vs. Jacoby Brissett, this is another matchup that I have almost zero interest in.
Between these two teams, however, the Denver Broncos at least have a very good defense that is second-best in EPA and first in the NFL in success rate.
Considering the matchup of two of the worst offenses, however, I’m not sure how low this total would have to be for me to pass on taking the under.
The Broncos held Aaron Rodgers to less than 10 points and without a touchdown last week. Now, they’ll be going against a Gardner Minshew II-led Las Vegas Raiders offense without Davante Adams.
Prediction: Broncos 13, Raiders 7
Pick: Under 35.5 (-105)
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
- Moneyline: Giants +235, Seahawks -290
- Total: 43.5
The New York Giants won’t have Malik Nabers this week, who has essentially been their entire offense.
After Nabers, the Giants’ top receiver so far has been Wan’Dale Robinson, who has averaged 7.5 yards per reception with an aDOT of 4.8.
Simply put, the Giants don’t have enough offensively to keep up with a Seattle Seahawks offense that is coming off a historical performance on Monday night.
The Seahawks had 38 first downs tonight!
That's the most by any team in a game in the last 10 seasons.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) October 1, 2024
This pick almost feels too obvious, which has me nervous, but I like the Seahawks to win this one comfortably.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Giants 10
Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Packers -162, Rams +136
- Total: 49
Outside of an uncharacteristic 41-10 Week 2 loss to the Cardinals, Matthew Stafford and this depleted Los Angeles Rams team have been in every game this season.
Last week, while they lost 24-18 to the Bears, they thoroughly outplayed Chicago and probably should have won that game.
Now, they’re three-point home underdogs to a Green Bay Packers team that was on the verge of getting blown out last week at home before putting up 22 points in the fourth quarter.
Even despite all of their injuries on offense, the Rams have been a very competitive and gritty team. On paper, the Packers are the much better team in this matchup, but I’m going to take the points with the underdog here.
Prediction: Packers 24, Rams 23
Pick: Rams +3 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +114, Steelers -135
- Total: 44
This would have been a very surprising line to see in the preseason, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-1 and the Dallas Cowboys have been a very mediocre 2-2 team and will be without both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence on defense.
While Justin Fields has been playing the best football of his career, the Steelers have still been a mediocre team offensively. For the season, they’re 18th in yards per game, 21st in EPA per play, and 22nd in success rate.
For the season, the Steelers are 28th in pass rate over expectation, and against this poor Cowboys run defense, I’m expecting them to lean even more heavily on their rushing attack.
That correlates with taking the under here, as well as the Cowboys’ disadvantage against this Steelers front seven.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Cowboys 17
Pick: Under 44 (-110)
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Saints +210, Chiefs -258
- Total: 43
Surprisingly, this Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid-led Chiefs offense has been relatively average to start this season.
Injuries have been a factor, and now, they’ll be without Rashee Rice after already losing Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco to injuries.
Even before last week when Rice went down, Mahomes was 14th in passing yards per game and 30th in air yards per attempt among starting quarterbacks.
Through four weeks, the Chiefs have scored an average of 23 points per game, 14th-best in the NFL. With Mahomes, Reid, and Travis Kelce, you can count on this offense figuring it out eventually, but I’m not optimistic that it happens just yet against the New Orleans Saints.
Prediction: Chiefs 21, Saints 20
Pick: Chiefs under 24.5 (-130)
