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    Week 5 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

    Have fantasy questions? Every single player on your radar is covered in our Week 5 preview of the 2023 fantasy football season!

    We will be more than 35% through the fantasy football regular season after this week. I raise that point to make you aware that now is the time to make your move. If you’re coasting, great! If not, you need to start pushing the envelope. Within this preview, there is a little something for everyone: dart throws with rest-of-season analysis, Week 5 desperation plays, and high-floor options to fill out your roster.

    Pull up a chair and grab a cup of coffee. Maybe a pot. Maybe something bigger than pot. Let’s get you a big win in Week 5 and get you ready to peak at the right time!

    Bye Weeks: Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers, and Seattle Seahawks

    Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Start/Sit Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

    Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons

    • Spread: Falcons -2
    • Total: 41
    • Texans implied points: 18.5
    • Falcons implied points: 20.5

    Quarterbacks

    C.J. Stroud: With at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games, the rookie has as many 20-point efforts this season as Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Fields combined! Hand up if you saw that coming; I know I didn’t.

    Stroud’s 1,212 passing yards are the second most through four career games (Cam Newton owns the record if you need a little bar trivia for the week), and by ranking 13th in aDOT, it’s not as if he is benefiting from unsustainable aggression.

    C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates with wide receiver Nico Collins (12) after a touchdown during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at NRG Stadium.
    Oct 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates with wide receiver Nico Collins (12) after a touchdown during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at NRG Stadium.

    With a double-digit yard gain on the ground in three of four games, I’m tempted to say that there is staying power as a fantasy asset this season. I do worry about the sporadic accuracy (under 64% completion percentage in three of four games), but given that this team has no real option besides throwing the ball (76.3% of their yards come through the air, the third-highest rate in the NFL), volume can cover up that flaw.

    Stroud is a top-15 play for me this week against a Falcons team that is traveling back from London, a ranking he will likely carry until further notice.

    Desmond Ridder: He has as many career multi-INT games as multi-TD pass games and has never thrown for 240 yards in an NFL game. The goal of this offense is to limit the number of passing attempts, and until that changes, Ridder will be among the five least-friendly QBs in fantasy. He’s an iffy play, even in Superflex formats, too.

    Running Backs

    Dameon Pierce: Could help be on the way in the form of healthy linemen for Pierce this week? It’s possible – and that would help his outlook a touch, given that the next time he averages over 3.5 yards per carry in a game this season will be the first. How much upside are we realistically willing to give him at this point?

    Pierce has yet to post a top-15 finish at the position, and while he did hold a 42-25 snap edge over Devin Singletary in Week 4, he ran one fewer route. That role in the passing game is where the upside is going to be generated in this aggressive offense, so until that changes, Pierce is going to have a hard time cracking my top-25.

    Bijan Robinson: You know it when you see it. The college tape and excitement entering his NFL debut were impressive and promising, but none of that is 100% predictive. What is 100% predictive is showcasing elite talent on a per-touch basis through your first month in the league, something Robinson has certainly done.

    From knee-buckling jukes to one-handed palmings of the football, I’m very convinced that there is just about nothing this kid can’t do. He’s in an offense that is designed to get him 18-20 touches per game, and it genuinely feels like every one of those touches has the chance to be special.

    He is in the McCaffrey tier of running back for the remainder of this season and certainly beyond 2023 for those in dynasty leagues.

    Tyler Allgeier: As comforting as it is to get playing time from those stashed on your bench, Allgeier has back-to-back-to-back games with under five fantasy points after dropping 22.9 on the Panthers in Week 1.

    The fact that he got an opportunity to produce on 60% of his snaps last weekend speaks to how this offense functions and why he needs to remain rostered, but you can’t justify playing him in anything less than a desperate situation.

    Wide Receivers

    Nico Collins: We are looking at an alpha receiver in a pass-heavy offense. What more could you ask for? Collins is a strong WR2 for me until otherwise noted, thanks to him posting at least nine targets and 80 receiving yards in three of four games to open the season.

    The Tank Dell experience is a rollercoaster ride and may prevent Collins from coming through in a big way for some weeks. Considering that Dell earned a target on just 18.5% of routes last week, a rate that was less than half of Collins’, there is no question who sits atop the WR hierarchy (and, realistically, the fantasy hierarchy) in Houston.

    Tank Dell: What we’ve seen through one month from Dell is exactly what I think we see for the next three: spike games and a maddening floor. On his résumé, this season is a pair of top-20 finishes and two weeks (including last week vs. PIT: one catch for 16 yards) ranking outside of the top 60 fantasy receivers.

    I have nothing against the player, and this matchup has him on my Flex radar; I just want you to go in with eyes wide open about the range of outcomes that you’re signing up for.

    Drake London: Here lies Drake London’s fantasy hopes. He led the team in targets but didn’t give you what you were looking for.

    Tombstones need to be accurate and succinct. That can be difficult in many cases – this is not one of them. In Week 4, for the 13th time in his 21-game career, the former first-rounder was held under 50 receiving yards.

    Over the past two weeks, he is averaging 4.5 yards per target. That’s supposed to be a yards-per-carry rate for a running back, not the yards-per-target number for a potential franchise-changing receiver.

    He doesn’t have a health problem. He doesn’t have a talent problem. He has a Desmond Ridder problem, and until that changes, London is nothing more than roster depth.

    Tight Ends

    Dalton Schultz: Last week was cute. Schultz finished as TE5 against the Steelers because he found the end zone, but with just three targets earned, why would I adjust my overall view of him?

    Schultz wasn’t a top-25 performer at the position in any of the first three weeks this season, a floor that scares me off of him. He is outside of my top-15 tight ends this week and a distant second in terms of TEs I want to roster with the first name Dalton.

    Kyle Pitts: If you’re reading this and are a productive NFL pass catcher, I’m honored. Also, what I’m about to say probably doesn’t apply to you.

    You have the same number of games with 45 receiving yards since Halloween as Pitts does.

    The production pretty clearly hasn’t been there, and with no more than five targets in three of four games this season, I’m not sure how you spin things forward in an optimistic way. Not that you needed salt poured into this wound, but Jonnu Smith led the team in catches (six) and receiving yards (95) last week in London.

    As brutal as the tight end position is to fill these days, there is still no reason to be banking on Pitts. Like London, I don’t mind playing the long game in dynasty, but when it comes to redraft, you can find more production on the wire.

    Jonnu Smith: With at least six targets in three straight games, the veteran can’t be ignored when it comes to streaming options at tight end. I don’t think the six-catch, 95-yard performance from last week is going to happen consistently, but the usage doesn’t lie. He was targeted on 26.1% of his routes against the Jaguars, a far superior rate to that of Pitts (14.3%).

    I don’t blame you if you want no part of this passing game, but if you are streaming the position, at the moment at least, Smith seems to be the guy in Atlanta to back.

    Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

    • Spread: Lions -9.5
    • Total: 44.5
    • Panthers implied points: 17.5
    • Lions implied points: 27

    Quarterbacks

    Bryce Young: On the bright side, Young completed a career-high 25 passes last week against the Vikings. On the downside, it required an unsustainable time of possession number against a bad defense, and it didn’t include a touchdown.

    Young is very much a work in progress on a team devoid of young talent.. He funneled over 58% of his targets last week to Adam Thielen or Terrace Marshall Jr. – not exactly a formula I’m comfortable banking on in any format.

    Jared Goff: “The poor man’s Matt Ryan” has a pair of games with at least 19 points and two games under 15 – care to guess the location of the two good games?

    I’ll ask plenty of difficult questions throughout this piece. This, however, isn’t one of them. Of course, they came at home because that’s what Goff does. I don’t get it, but I can’t deny it. Does playing indoors really make that much of a difference, even though the conditions last week at Lambeau were pristine?

    Whatever the cause is, I really don’t care. Goff is at home with extra prep time this week for a Panthers defense that scares no one (37 points and 425 yards allowed in their last road game).

    He is working on a 15-game streak with over 300 passing yards or accounting for multiple touchdowns, a run that could be in trouble with both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs sidelined. Be careful here – Goff is a fine streaming option, but not the lineup lock I viewed him as earlier this week with his full compliment of weapons.

    Running Backs

    Miles Sanders: In a close game against the Vikings, Chuba Hubbard out-snapped Sanders 38-32 (out-carried 14-13) last week. This could very well be a problem for a running back in Sanders, who has just one top-20 finish to his name this season, but I’m giving him this week to re-establish his spot atop the depth chart.

    Why? Well, the Panthers saw their two primary backs run for 290 yards and a score in this matchup last season, and I want access to that ceiling should Sanders assume the lead role.

    I cautiously still have him ranked as a low-end RB2 in the James Conner range of boring running backs. Admittedly, he is hanging onto that status by a thread.

    David Montgomery: Remember seven whole days ago when we wondered aloud if Montgomery was a worthwhile play coming off of a missed game against a reasonably good Packers defense?

    Yeah, turns out he was just fine. And by “just fine,” I mean spectacular. He dominated to the tune of 141 yards and two touchdowns in the convincing win, confirming that he is the volume king in this backfield. He is averaging 23 carries per game and has punched in a score in each contest, a role that has him labeled as a must-start.

    Do I have my long-term concerns about his ability to hold up and his touchdown reliance to maintain his current value (under four yards per carry for the fourth time in five seasons)? I do, but that’s a topic for a different article.

    If you have him, you’re playing him, as his 53-28 snap edge over Jahmyr Gibbs in his return to action further proved his alpha status in this backfield.

    Jahmyr Gibbs: Is he rookie Alvin Kamara without the perfect quarterback/head coach combination? Kamara, in 2017, didn’t have more than 12 carries in a single game, but thanks to an absolutely ideal situation, he was a strong fantasy asset. In that vein, Gibbs ran a route on 50% of his Week 4 snaps compared to Montgomery’s rate of 30.2%.

    Goff isn’t Drew Brees, and Dan Campbell isn’t Sean Payton. Gibbs has 16 targets against 22 rush attempts in the three games he has played alongside Montgomery, and without the elite scheming that Kamara had, that’s a tough way to make a fantasy living.

    MORE: NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer 

    His next catch gaining more than 10 yards will be his first. We will need to wait on his role getting expanded – Gibbs has been ruled OUT for Week 5.

    Now, he did get 18 touches in the game Montgomery missed, so there is some potential for spot value if this workload wears down Detroit’s feature back, but barring that, Gibbs simply cannot be trusted in lineups at the moment.

    He needs to remain rostered, however, because he is the clear-cut second option, and there is always the potential that a rookie finds his niche (or the offense adjusts to his strengths) with time. If you can get him on the cheap, I would, with the understanding that you’re adding depth more than anything.

    Wide Receivers

    Adam Thielen: That’s now three consecutive games with at least seven catches for the veteran, something he hadn’t done since October of 2018. The passing game is capped by what the team is willing to put on the plate of Young, though the growth from the rookie has been encouraging:

    • Game 1: 52.6% compilation rate
    • Game 2: 66.7%
    • Game 3: 78.1%

    If the accuracy is here to stay, Thielen will be a viable Flex option in PPR leagues.

    DJ Moore earned a 33.3% target share when the Panthers played the Lions last season, giving us hope that they can scheme Thielen open. Right now, I have him at WR35, understanding that the volume is nice but that the per-target upside is limited, to say the least.

    DJ Chark: Last week was the big revenge week, but there are a few on the board this weekend, and Chark checks that box. In this matchup last season, Chark, as a Lion, racked up 108 yards, a level of success that seems highly unlikely in an offense that has allowed him to produce just 129 yards in three games.

    In Week 4, with Jonathan Mingo sidelined, Chark earned just 9.7% of the targets. He doesn’t need to be rostered in any format (his one volume game came when Young sat).

    Terrace Marshall Jr.: With Mingo out (concussion), Marshall led the Panthers in catches (nine) and targets (10) but was able to produce only 56 yards. His ability to earn a target on nearly 39% of routes was impressive, but with Mingo expected to return, there’s no reason to chase the PPR points from Week 4.

    Amon-Ra St. Brown: He was tying the Packers in knots for the 15 minutes in which last Thursday’s game was competitive but saw little usage as the game wore on and the Lions melted clock. The Sun God is among the highest-floor receivers in the game today, something that four straight games north of 14 fantasy points proves.

    I’m not sure there is a team in the league that has a way to take him away, and with Detroit getting Jameson Williams back, those middle-of-the-field routes are only going to become more reliable. St. Brown is an elite option any week he is active, that just isn’t the case in Week 5 as he has officially been ruled OUT.

    Jameson Williams: News broke on Friday that the league’s gambling policy had been tweaked, lessening Williams’ punishment from six to four games, thus making him eligible to make his season debut this week.

    Through four games this season, Goff’s aDOT is on the low end of average, but the argument could easily be made that such an attack is by design without the speedy Williams on the field. He clearly offers massive per-target upside in an offense that needs not only a field stretcher but also consistent production from a secondary receiver, so make sure to add him.

    Jameson Williams makes a catch at warm up before a preseason game against the Giants.
    Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams makes a catch at warm up before a preseason game against the Giants at Ford Field on Friday, Aug. 11, 2023.

    As far as playing him, I can’t get there. We simply haven’t seen enough proof of concept up to this point, and let’s not forget that he was battling a hamstring injury this summer (just ask Christian Watson managers how they feel about a speed-oriented receiver and soft tissue injuries).

    I don’t have Williams ranked as a top-35 receiver this week and doubt that I will at any point in October. That said, in rostering him, you are playing the long game. The Lions certainly seem like the class of this division, and that could mean they are playing largely important games over the final month of the NFL season — when all the chips are in the middle of the table in fantasy leagues.

    Building on that, it’s important to note that the Lions end the regular season with back-to-back-to-back-to-back indoor games. I mentioned the indoor numbers for Goff earlier, and playing in a weather-controlled environment certainly won’t hurt the prospects of a receiver like Williams. Stash him now and hope that he rounds into form at the perfect time!

    Tight Ends

    Hayden Hurst: Seven targets and a touchdown in Week 1 in Atlanta gave us hope that our Rolodex of TE streamers was about to grow by one, but those hopes have since been dashed with just 6.3 fantasy points in the following three games.

    I’m passing on the temptation to plug-and-play him in a game that could see some points scored — his role just isn’t friendly enough to overcome the deficiencies that come with playing for a limited offense.

    Sam LaPorta: The rookie tight end has cleared 55 receiving yards in three straight games, and his 81.5% catch rate suggests a very nice connection with Goff. I’ll be interested to see if his target earning declines with Williams in the mix, but I believe the efficiency is here to stay, and that locks him in as a top-10 tight end until otherwise noted.

    LaPorta is currently on pace to gain 2.5 more receiving yards as a rookie than Kyle Pitts did during his introduction to the NFL back in 2021.

    Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

    • Spread: Colts -1
    • Total: 42.5
    • Titans implied points: 20.8
    • Colts implied points: 21.8

    Quarterbacks

    Anthony Richardson: The first quarterback in NFL history with a rush TD in each of his first three games is ready to be considered a set-it-and-forget-it fantasy option. The physical profile is a cheat code and that will allow him to pay off for us while he develops as a passer.

    Is there risk involved on a weekly basis? There is. His athleticism puts him in harm’s way, and the 56.9% completion rate is certainly ugly. For Week 5, however, he gets to take on a leaky Tennessee Titans secondary that could allow him to experience a true ceiling week. If you rolled the dice on Richardson this summer, you’ve positioned yourself to make a deep run this winter!

    Running Backs

    Derrick Henry: We got a Tim Tebow jump pass to go along with 133 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in a performance that Henry managers needed to see after a slow start to the season.

    I’m not sure our concerns from the first three games are completely gone — this offense as a whole is still questionable at best — but you can feel safe about considering him an RB1 against an Indianapolis Colts team that he piled up over 110 rushing yards and three catches in both meetings a season ago.

    Remember why you liked him so much this summer…

    • Week 15 vs. HOU
    • Week 16 vs. SEA
    • Week 17 at HOU
    • Week 18 vs. JAX

    Assuming health, it is very possible that his best production this season comes when fantasy football managers need it most.

    Tyjae Spears: Even during a breakout Henry game, Spears was on the field for 35 snaps and ran 17 routes. He’s getting the opportunity to learn on the fly and has exactly four targets in three of four games, but there really is no path to viable fantasy value sans an injury to The Big Dog. Roster him as depth; just make sure that you don’t have the illusion of the rookie returning much else.

    Jonathan Taylor: The idea of whether you should trade Jonathan Taylor in fantasy football is an interesting dynamic that I tackled earlier this week, and it’s more a question of situation than anything else.

    With the bag secured, Taylor should be fired up with confidence this week and moving forward. Yes, it’s a tough matchup – yes, it’s an elite talent. Some rust is to be expected, as is a more careful eye on his workload than normal. That means he essentially replaces Zack Moss as a low-end RB1 for me this week.

    Zack Moss: Was last week against the Rams a thing of beauty? No, but until the volume dries up (if it does), Moss deserves to be considered a lineup lock who can flirt with RB1 status whenever Taylor is out. This isn’t one of those spots (Tennessee is allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry), but the 20-touch role he assumes if Taylor sits makes him among the best insurance policies in the game.

    Wide Receivers

    DeAndre Hopkins: As the veteran continues to battle through an ankle injury (fourth on this team in targets last week), I’m not sure how you can possibly feel comfortable in continuing to roll him out in your starting lineup. He caught four balls for 63 yards last week — I felt like he overachieved. Nuk hasn’t been better than WR40 in any of the past three weeks, and he’s again outside of my Flex ranks.

    To put some context around him, I have him ranked behind another “good player in a bad spot” receiver in Drake London, and he’s not far from being passed by Arizona Cardinals rookie Michael Wilson.

    Treylon Burks: He has been held under four fantasy points in two of three games and saw more targets than yards gained the last time we saw him (Week 3 at CLE). The ceiling for the WR2 in this offense is so limited that cutting Burks is a reasonable move, even if you’re just throwing a dart on a guy like Marvin Mims.

    Nick Westbrook-Ikhine filled in admirably for Burks last weekend with five grabs for 51 yards and a score. Good for him. There’s nothing to see here. This offense can’t consistently support a single pass catcher, so I’m not allocating roster space for anyone behind Hopkins, even with Burks out again this weekend.

    Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman is turning into something of the Brock Purdy of the receiver position. That is, you kind of know what you’re getting weekly (sans last week), and while there is some value in it, it’s not enough to put you significantly ahead of your competition.

    MORE: Fantasy Football WR Week 5 Trade Targets

    Despite ranking 10th in the NFL in receptions through the first month, Pittman’s next weekly finish better than WR29 will be just his second of the season. He was locked down last week (five targets, 15 yards), and that was a problem for him in 2022 against the Titans (15 targets for 89 yards across two games).

    I’m worried long-term about Pittman’s lack of a ceiling, but those worries are not impacting my Week 5 ranking of him as a top-20 option against a registered pass funnel. I suspect Indy puts the ball in Richardson’s hands to win this game, and with Pittman commanding 28.7% of the targets, he should be locked and loaded into all lineups.

    Josh Downs: The rookie was able to shake loose for 12 targets in Week 3 with Gardner Minshew II under center and did haul in the longest catch of his career last weekend against the Rams (30 yards), but with his sub-6.0 yards per target average this season, there simply isn’t enough meat on this bone.

    If you want to hold Downs in a deep bench situation, I’m OK with it, given that Richardson’s development could make him a name to watch with time, but in standard leagues, he doesn’t need to be held on to.

    Tight Ends

    Chigoziem Okonkwo: Does this team need a secondary pass catcher to step up? They sure do, but until we see signs of life from Okonkwo (yet to finish a week better than TE25) to suggest that his strong finish to last season was anything more than a flash in the pan, there is no reason for you to look this direction.

    New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

    • Spread: Dolphins -11
    • Total: 49.5
    • Giants implied points: 19.3
    • Dolphins implied points: 30.3

    Quarterbacks

    Daniel Jones: Without a 25-yard gain (either by way of completion or run) or a touchdown in three of four games this season, the breakout 2022 season feels like it was 10 years ago rather than 10 months. His athleticism gives him a unique throughway to productive numbers, but until further notice, he is a part of the quarterback tier that extends down to the Sam Howells of the world.

    Jones shouldn’t be rostered in standard formats and will float around my QB15 on a weekly basis.

    Tua Tagovailoa: For the second time in three weeks, Tagovailoa failed to clear 15 fantasy points despite favorable efficiency metrics. He has completed at least 70% of his passes in three straight games and has yet to average under 8.0 yards per attempt in a game this season.

    The lack of mobility leaves you without the added safety net that so many signal callers in this era have, but in a plus-matchup with a healthy Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – you’re locking in Tagovailoa in all formats.

    Running Backs

    Saquon Barkley (Update): Barkley has been ruled OUT for the Giants game against the Dolphins.

    Barkley’s health remains in question, but the decision for fantasy managers is certain: play him if the Giants play him and sit him if he sits. Even if you want to assume the ankle injury limits him to some degree, anything close to the 16 PPG he averaged in the first two weeks is lineup-worthy.

    Matt Breida: Real friends don’t let friends start non-Barkley Giants running backs. Breida has 21 carries this season, yet he and I are in a race to see who will record the first 10-yard carry. Move on.

    Raheem Mostert: So you mean a Dolphin running back with consecutive top-five finishes at the position isn’t bulletproof? I’ll lay out the De’Von Achane numbers in a second, but first, we had to address the seven-carry, nine-yard egg that Mostert laid last week in Buffalo.

    The running game got scripted out of the 28-point loss, which made producing viable fantasy numbers an uphill battle. As bad as the box score was, Mostert saw 5+ targets for the second consecutive game and delivered a chunk play for the third straight contest.

    While it’s unlikely that Mostert gets written out of this offense, the development of Achane limits Mostert’s market share of this offense. Moving forward, I view both he and Achane in a similar light: big play threats that can produce points but carry a low floor due to workload limitations.

    Both Miami RBs are fine RB2s for me against a Giants defense on a short week.

    De’Von Achane: Wrong wrong wrong. I’ll fully admit that I was on my regression soapbox last week, and if you followed my lead, you left 25.5 fantasy points on your bench and may have lost as a result. I apologize. If it makes you feel any better, I have Mostert in more than a few spots, and he was benched in all of them. Pain.

    Is it possible to admit that Achane is the real deal AND that his performance is simply ludicrous? Of course, it is, and I’d argue that is the only logical way to approach this situation. I mean…

    • 1991 Barry Sanders: 0.80 points per touch
    • 2005 Shaun Alexander: 0.96
    • 2019 Christian McCaffrey: 1.02
    • 2003 Priest Holmes: 1.06
    • 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson: 1.10
    • 2023 De’Von Achane: 1.83

    With the rookie out-snapping Mostert 39-28 against the Bills (28-16 in routes run), things are clearly trending in a positive direction. That puts him as an RB2 in my Week 5 rankings. It’s perfectly fine to be excited by what you’ve seen from Achane. It’s also perfectly fine to fade my concerns. I just worry that the touch volume lacks enough upside to balance the inevitable decline of per-touch production.

    Jeff Wilson Jr.: Wilson is eligible to come off IR this week, and while this current Miami run game needs no help, there’s a chance he gets some carries if healthy. Wilson has yet to prove himself capable of sustaining significant volume, but he did average a career-high 4.9 yards per carry last season (split between SF and MIA).

    Wilson shouldn’t be rostered in anything but the deepest of leagues where you’re betting on Mostert to miss time.

    Wide Receivers

    Wan’Dale Robinson: He has caught nine of 11 targets this season, surprising efficiency in an inefficient offense. That said, we are still in wait-and-see mode here. Could he be a PPR filler over time if healthy? It’s possible, but no need to act fast. Track his usage as bye weeks approach and injuries pile up. He’s not a top-50 receiver for me in Week 5.

    Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Jalin Hyatt: None of these receivers saw more than three targets during the blowout loss to Seattle on Monday night. While there is per catch upside if any of them get loose downfield, that is a big if. And by “big if,” I mean it’s impossible to project or expect. This receiver room doesn’t have an option you can count on, and the upside isn’t worth chasing until we see this offensive line give Jones some time to throw.

    Tyreek Hill: Just like we expected, in the potential shootout game of the season, Braxton Berrios, who ran just 20 routes, led the Dolphins in targets. Hill now has a pair of games with over 150 yards and a pair under 60.

    That sort of risk/reward profile isn’t fun to deal with on the down weeks, but the week-deciding ceiling potential makes his spot on your roster similar to marriage: you’ll remember the great times, but you’ll have to deal with the lows.

    Jaylen Waddle: OK, so Week 4 was wonky. And by “wonky,” I mean the Dolphins allowed more sacks (four) than touchdowns they scored (three), something that seemed impossible through the first three weeks (17 touchdowns and one sack). So, of course, I think better days are ahead of Waddle (four catches for 46 yards), and I have him as a top-15 option this week.

    That said, did you know that since last Halloween, Waddle doesn’t have a game with more than five catches? Not one. We are also amidst a six-game scoreless stretch for the versatile receiver. Those are just facts. I’m not worried yet, but these trends deserve our attention.

    Jaylen Waddle (17) reacts after his first down catch against New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (6) in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium.
    Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) reacts after his first down catch against New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (6) in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium.

    If those numbers scare you, at least wait another two weeks before making a move. After hosting the Giants and Panthers, the Dolphins get the Eagles, Patriots, and Chiefs before going on bye.

    Tight Ends

    Darren Waller: I understand the frustration with rostering Waller, but there is no escaping him. You can’t trade him for pennies on the dollar, and holding multiple tight ends is rarely a wise use of roster space, which makes benching him unwise. He has only one top-20 finish on his 2023 résumé, but the TE position is littered with downside that lack the role clarity of Waller. He’s my TE8 this week — hang in there.

    Dolphins D/ST: This unit is available in some leagues, and they are my clear top streaming option this week. The Giants gave up 10 sacks last week and turned the ball over three times, things that could easily happen again if they are forced to keep up with the high-flying ‘Fins. The Miami defense was torched last week in Buffalo, but they had scored 17 fantasy points over the two weeks prior and have multiple turnovers or multiple sacks in every game this season.

    New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots

    • Spread: Patriots -1.5
    • Total: 40
    • Saints implied points: 19.3
    • Patriots implied points: 20.8

    Quarterbacks

    Derek Carr: It wasn’t clear that Carr would play until late in the process last week, and it was clear that the shoulder injury limited what he was capable of doing. His aDOT dropped by 15.8% from the first three weeks (37 passes for 127 yards), and based on how he looked when trying to stretch the field, you could argue that it should have dipped further.

    Carr is a fringe option in a perfect matchup at full health — he checks none of those boxes this weekend, and you don’t need to look his way in any situation.

    Mac Jones: He threw three touchdown passes in the season opener and has tossed two on 92 attempts since. This offense is stuck in the mud with their point total declining every single week, and until Jones shows signs of growth, I don’t want any Patriots on my roster.

    Running Backs

    Alvin Kamara: The 24 touches in his season debut were encouraging, but how sustainable is it? With Carr not right, Kamara vacuumed in 14 targets (13 catches) — for all of 33 yards. We had efficiency concerns after a down 2022 for Kamara, and they proved accurate last week against the Buccaneers.

    Hot take: a healthier version of Carr would actually help Kamara. Sure, it would result in fewer dump-offs, but if he is healthy enough to stretch the field, that puts Kamara in space when he does get on the field. He’s a top-15 play for me this week (49 snaps while Tony Jones Jr. and Kendre Miller combined for 16) and carries more scoring equity this week than he will when Jamaal Williams returns.

    Jamaal Williams: Williams remains on IR through Week 6 (hamstring). His touch count will be limited with Kamara now in the mix, though his role inside the 10-yard line figures to be safe. After this week, I’d look at the waiver wire and see if Williams is available.

    Kendre Miller: It’s OK to let go of priors. Coming into the season, the idea of stashing Miller was appealing, but after one month, it is clear that the role simply isn’t there for him. You can safely cut ties in Week 7 when Williams is due back, and I don’t mind doing it before then if you’re running into depth problems.

    Rhamondre Stevenson: He was drafted as a top-15 running back in August and has yet to produce top-15 numbers a single time this season. In fact, he hasn’t been a top-30 running back in consecutive weeks. He out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott 35-22 last week and remains the lead in this backfield, but that’s like saying that Starbursts are the healthiest junk food. Does it even matter?

    Stevenson has gone three straight weeks without a touch gaining more than 12 yards. He’s not a top-20 running for me moving forward, and in a tough matchup, he’s much closer to RB30 than RB20.

    Ezekiel Elliott: Nope. If I’m not confident that the starter in this backfield is anything more than a Flex, the short end of that committee needs not be rostered.

    Yes, Zeke has been more involved than we projected this summer. No, that doesn’t mean he needs to be rostered. He’s easily outside of my top 30 this week, and there are a handful of backfields where I’d rather play either of their top two options ahead of Elliott (Chicago, Green Bay, Carolina, and Denver).

    Wide Receivers

    Chris Olave: Derek Tate mentioned Olave as a buy on our Tuesday podcast this week, and if there is any level of panic from the Olave manager in your league, you better pounce!

    I’m not talking about “I’ll send an offer later when I think about it,” I’m talking “minimize this screen, pull up your league page, and offer a trade that evaluates Olave as a low-end WR2.” He’s a star and is going to be just fine. His six-target, four-yard Week 4 was gruesome and likely cost the Olave manager the week, but as Carr rehabs, better times are ahead.

    Olave is a top-10 receiver for me this week and for the remainder of the season.

    Michael Thomas: In a game where Carr couldn’t stretch the field, Thomas led the Saints with 53 receiving yards last week. He is a viable starter as we get into bye-week season, but the capped ceiling is going to have him outside my top 30 most weeks.

    He has yet to finish as a top-35 receiver this season, and despite seeing eight targets per game, he’s yet to reach 65 receiving yards or score. The range of outcomes is awfully narrow: there’s a place and time for a player like that, just not for those interested in chasing upside.

    Rashid Shaheed: Much like the Carr injury sapped Olave of his upside in Week 4, Shaheed was in a terrible spot last week. He recorded 89 receiving yards in the season-opening win over the Titans and has just 96 in his three games since, highlighting his floor in the process.

    But I’m holding, and I’ll tell you why. His speed and profile confirm his status as an elite deep threat; not sure I need to sell you on that. The fact that he was able to earn a season-high seven targets last week was encouraging. The deep pass game wasn’t an option, and he was finding space in the short-to-intermediate pass game. He is safely outside of my top 35 this week, though he very much needs to remain rostered.

    JuJu Smith-Schuster: If the counting stats weren’t enough to sell you on Smith-Schuster being on the waiver wire radar, the fact that he posted his lowest snap share of the season should. The limitations of this offense and him in any sort of feature role far outweigh the goodwill his name brings in fantasy conversation: there is no reason to keep him rostered.

    Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker: Neither of these receivers has been a top-50 receiver in any of the past three weeks, proof positive that this offense is the exception to fantasy football in 2023 — not a single pass catcher on this roster should be remotely close to starting lineups.

    Tight Ends

    Taysom Hill: If you’re streaming the position, you’re signing up for a low floor. You just are. That’s the price of doing business, so why not roll the dice on Hill’s unique usage and rare ceiling with a banged-up starting quarterback? He’s not a safe play by any means, but his path to opportunities has him inside my top 15 this week, with Juwan Johnson battling a calf injury.

    Hunter Henry: It wasn’t that long ago when Henry was the top-scoring TE in fantasy. Life comes at you fast. Henry hasn’t been a top-15 performer at the position in either of the past two weeks, totaling just six catches in the process. He needs a touchdown to matter, something that can be said for roughly 97 tight ends, and this offense isn’t putting him in a position to get it done.

    Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

    • Spread: Ravens -4
    • Total: 38.5
    • Ravens implied points: 21.3
    • Steelers implied points: 17.3

    Quarterbacks

    Lamar Jackson: He has completed over 70% of his passes in every game this season, a nod to the creativity of Todd Monken, and has multiple rushing scores in consecutive weeks. Jackson should be considered a real threat to lead that second tier of signal-caller in fantasy points this season, and a matchup against a Steelers defense that gave up 451 yards to the Texans last week doesn’t scare me in the least.

    Kenny Pickett: Pickett suffered a knee injury last week during the blowout loss in Houston and is expected to miss some time (Pittsburgh goes on bye next week) starting with this divisional showdown.

    Pickett has yet to take the fantasy-friendly steps that we had hoped for this season and, thus, doesn’t matter in single-QB leagues. In two-quarterback/Superflex leagues, the talent around him made him a low-end option, but with this news, cutting ties is plenty reasonable.

    The Steelers play on Thursday night in Week 9, giving them an extended week of preparation heading into Week 10, making that a potential target for his return. If that were to play out, he’d return for a pair of games against top-12 defenses in terms of yards per pass allowed.

    We lack clarity on a timeline, and the schedule stiffens in a month’s time — you’re better off getting a healthy body for the short term than you are holding out hope on Pickett.

    Mitchell Trubisky: The former first-round pick has thrown just 193 passes since the beginning of 2021 and has more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (four) over that stretch. He will make his first start of 2023 against the best pass defense in terms of yards per attempt through the first month, making him of no use to fantasy managers and raising serious questions about all pieces of this offense that do matter.

    Running Backs

    Gus Edwards: The leader of the Ravens backfield has seen his carry count increase each week this season, and he even saw his first three targets of the season in the blowout win over the Browns last week. That’s the good. The bad is that he is yet to clear 62 yards from scrimmage and that Monken has been designing runs for Jackson in the red zone.

    He easily held the snap edge over Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon III last week, something I expect to continue, and that’s enough to give him Flex appeal. You’re plugging him in to provide a floor and looking elsewhere for the upside.

    Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon III: Neither excels in the passing game, Edwards’ greatest deficiency, and there simply aren’t enough carries to go around to give them any value. The fact that these two are splitting snaps right now tells me that the depth chart is fluid, and that makes neither worth rostering, as an injury to Edwards wouldn’t elevate either into the starting conversation.

    Najee Harris: He posted his first top-30 finish of the season last week with 103 yards on 15 touches, though my concerns remain. He was once viewed as a three-down back who was capable of doing it all, but with four catches in four games, those days appear to be gone. He’s been an underwhelming fantasy option through one month, and that is with him picking up chunk gains at a rate that far exceeds his career rate.

    With his volume down from years past, if/when those big plays dry up, Harris will be riding fantasy benches. For now, however, he is a fine Flex play who was able to provide value in both matchups against the Ravens last season.

    Jaylen Warren: There is no shortage of committees in the NFL today, but it’s pretty rare for two backs on the same team to play the exact same number of snaps and run the exact same number of routes. Well, that’s what happened in this annoying backfield last week, hinting that we are not close to gaining clarity.

    Warren, in my opinion, has the inside track due to the team’s confidence in him as a pass catcher (10 more catches than Harris has targets this season), but that’s a dangerous role to invest in with Trubisky under center. Harris is a strong Flex play, while Warren is more of an “if stuck” Flex option this week.

    Wide Receivers

    Zay Flowers: While I will admit that Flowers passes the eye test, the fact that he has not been a top-40 fantasy receiver since making his NFL debut is a concern. I maintain my stance that he is a great fit for this specific offense, and I’d be looking to acquire him sooner rather than later.

    The receiver position thins out after the top 20 this week, and that allows the rookie to grade out as a top-30 play for me, who is more valuable in a full-PPR setting. I expect the Ravens to be able to move the ball in this spot, and that is why I have Flowers ranked as my favorite receiver in this game.

    Odell Beckham Jr.: The veteran receiver is closing in on his 31st birthday and hasn’t played since injuring his ankle in the Week 2 win against the Bengals. While there were some signs of them wanting to get him involved in that game, this is currently a low aDOT offense that wants to strike fast, a style that really isn’t built for Beckham to thrive in.

    Could he have a big week here and there? Sure, but the level of predictability is low, and that is assuming full health. Right now, you need not worry about the one-time electric talent — you can find more upside with the same risk profile elsewhere.

    Diontae Johnson: A hamstring injury landed Johnson on IR after the Week 1 loss against the 49ers, meaning he will be eligible to return to action next week at the earliest. Anything can happen between now and then, but with Johnson considering himself day-to-day heading into Week 2, it would stand to reason that the veteran receiver will be ready to roll when Pittsburgh comes out of their Week 6 bye to face the Rams in Los Angeles.

    George Pickens: No one is arguing that the Ravens have faced the stiffest competition through four weeks, but their ability to shut down the top receiving option has been impressive.

    • Week 1: Nico Collins averaged 7.3 yards per target
    • Week 2: Ja’Marr Chase, 3.9
    • Week 3: Michael Pittman, 7.0
    • Week 4: Amari Cooper, 2.7

    In total, that works out to 5.7 yards per target, a rate that is 35.2% below Pickens’ rate thus far in 2023. That makes him a touchdown-dependent option in an offense with a sub-20-point projection. Pickens has one-play potential if you don’t have better options, but even without plenty of WR talent on bye this week, Pickens isn’t a top-30 option for me.

    Tight Ends

    Mark Andrews: There should never be a concern about starting Andrews, but this looks like the true DFS spot. I don’t have to convince you that he is the clear top target in this offense (ran a route on 57.5% of Week 4 snaps, they want him challenging the middle of the field), and players with that role have destroyed the Steelers this season:

    • Week 1: Brandon Aiyuk (eight catches, 129 yards, two TDs)
    • Week 2: Amari Cooper (7-90-0)
    • Week 3: Davante Adams (13-172-2)
    • Week 4: Nico Collins (7-168-2)

    The argument for Andrews is the inverse of the Pickens case: Pittsburgh can’t stop the primary aerial threat. Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson play each other in a game I expect to garner plenty of DFS eyes, but Andrews, in my opinion, is the better production per dollar option.

    Pat Freiermuth: I think Trubisky hurts this offense as a whole, but I actually believe Freiermuth is somewhat immune to that should he return to action before Pickett (projected timetable: 2-3 weeks). He was on the field for over 92% of the Week 4 snaps prior to suffering the hamstring injury, and I’d expect a similar usage level when he returns in a much less aggressive offense under Trubisky.

    That said, the only thing worse than having to roster one tight end is rostering two. You have the Soppe stamp of approval to cut ties here while Freiermuth is on the shelf.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

    • Spread: Eagles -4
    • Total: 50.5
    • Eagles implied points: 27.3
    • Rams implied points: 23.3

    Quarterbacks

    Jalen Hurts: For the first time this season, Hurts through multiple touchdown passes in Week 4. He has completed at least two-thirds of his passes in three of four games and has carried the rock 40 times already. He is nothing short of an elite option, and with the Rams ranking 21st in points allowed per play, there’s no reason to expect anything but high-end production in this spot.

    Matthew Stafford: Until we get word that Cooper Kupp is at full strength, it’ll take a perfect matchup for me to consider starting statue Stafford. This simply isn’t that. The Eagles are as good as any team in the league at generating pressure without blitzing, and they are a top-five time-of-possession team. Stafford is completing nearly 26 passes per game, but in this matchup, he’s safely outside of my top 15 at the position.

    Running Backs

    D’Andre Swift: The Swift that matters to us has been electric since taking control of this backfield, posting back-to-back-to-back top-15 finishes and holding a 45-27 snap edge over Kenneth Gainwell last week. This is no longer a committee, and with the Rams ranked 24th in yards per carry allowed, the good times should keep rolling.

    Swift set a season-high with four receptions against the Commanders in Week 4, and if he can build on that success, he won’t just be a top-10 RB for me this week; he’ll hold that honor for the remainder of the season.

    Kenneth Gainwell: Week 1’s explosion feels like forever ago, but Gainwell (six touches for 21 yards) is nothing more than an accent piece on this offense that doesn’t hold a fantasy-friendly role. It is worth noting that 70.4% of his Week 4 snaps saw him run a route (Swift: 44.4%), creating the hope that he can carve out a role that is viable in case of a PPR emergency, but that’s about the extent of his potential moving forward.

    Kyren Williams: You’ll see some of the best players in the game fail to have three multi-TD games this season, something Williams has done before the leaves start changing colors. As productive as 127 yards and two scores are, I was more encouraged long-term by something that a casual box score watcher may not be aware of.

    Williams actually came off the field in Week 4 and retained the elite workload. That’s gold! His 72% snap share last week, if sustained, gives him a chance to retain low-end RB1 fantasy value for the entirety of the season.

    He was playing north of 90% in the two weeks prior, and due to the violence of this game, that is simply difficult to do for 17 straight games. Williams is a top-15 RB for me this week and until otherwise noted.

    Wide Receivers

    A.J. Brown: Consecutive massive weeks after a sluggish start to 2023 for Brown, dismissing any thoughts that he had been supplanted as the WR1 in Philly. He’s averaging nearly 11 targets per game, and if that continues for the next three months, there won’t be five receivers that score more fantasy points. The dud games happen to almost everyone; use Brown as a reminder to not overreact when discussing an elite talent.

    DeVonta Smith: Smith’s target count is on par with his career average, and a near repeat of last season (1,200 yards and seven touchdowns) is a good bet. His game-breaking speed has only resulted in one top-15 finish this season, but more are sure to come, and he should be valued as a strong WR2 every week.

    Cooper Kupp: The All-Pro has returned to practice with the hope of returning sooner rather than later. Will he show rust when he returns? It’s very possible, but that’s not going to drop him outside of my top 20 at the position, and that means you are starting him the second he returns.

    Obviously, this is a tough matchup, but my guess is that his floor and ceiling are both more appealing than those of the WR2/Flex options you currently have penciled in. If he plays, you’re playing him, and we can evaluate his health after his debut is made. Make sure to check out the PFN Fantasy YouTube channel on Sunday morning for the latest in terms of where he falls in the ranks.

    Puka Nacua: The rookie is on pace for 166 catches this season, and his first career touchdown was a game-winner in overtime against the Colts last weekend. It’s hard to ask for a better first month of a season, though things are going to get complicated sooner than later.

    Can he earn targets next to Kupp? At the moment, that’s an inexact science. Not only do we not know how Nacua will adjust, but we don’t have a firm grasp on the rehab of Kupp. We’ve seen half a dozen offenses boast a pair of viable receivers over the past year, and that could certainly be the case here.

    If Kupp is active, Nacua will rank as a low-end WR2/high-end Flex for me. Should Kupp’s return be delayed, Nacua’s status as a top-15 receiver will live on for another week.

    Tutu Atwell: I’m not confident that this offense can support a trio of pass catchers, and Atwell would be my odd man out in the return of Kupp (outside of my top 35). While holding the WR2 role, Atwell has a pair of top 15s, but he also has two weekly finishes outside of the top 30.

    There’s risk in his profile with or without Kupp, making a target magnet like that a potential knockout blow for Atwell’s status as a weekly option.

    Tight Ends

    Dallas Goedert: If Hurts isn’t clicking on all levels as a passer, Goedert is nothing more than a streaming option. He has been TE28 or worse in three of four weeks this season, and that’s just flat-out terrible. I’m treating him and Darren Waller in a similar vein: They are both struggling in a big way, and it’s concerning, but both are better than your replacement options.

    I wish I could paint a more optimistic picture for you. The fact of the matter is that my confidence in Goedert (TE7) is more a product of the offense in which he plays than anything he has shown me through four games.

    Tyler Higbee: Find me one person who has been satisfied with the returns of Higbee. Good luck. He has yet to score and is pacing for 64 catches. That really isn’t impressive, nor is it the type of projection you’d target.

    Would you believe me that he has been a top-12 TE in three of four games? That tells you all you need to know about the position. Targets coming off his plate by way of a Kupp return is concerning, but, in theory, this offense could be in scoring position slightly more often as well.

    Higbee is my TE11 this week and a fine option who probably won’t kill you — that’s not a bad outlook at this position once you venture away from the elite.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

    • Spread: Bengals -3
    • Total: 44.5
    • Bengals implied points: 23.8
    • Cardinals implied points: 20.8

    Quarterbacks

    Joe Burrow: Zach Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Desmond Ridder all have top-20 finishes on their 2023 résumé, something Burrow can’t claim. There is simply no sugar-coating how bad things have been through a month, but that won’t stop me from trying.

    • No touchdown passes in three of four games
    • Pacing for 1,381 fewer passing yards than last season
    • Yet to average more than 5.5 yards per pass in a game

    MORE: Rest-of-Season Fantasy Rankings

    It’s been bad, and he could be without Tee Higgins this weekend. Can he right the ship against the 29th-ranked defense in terms of yards per play? It’s certainly possible, though I don’t blame you if you want to treat Burrow like a child.

    That is, send him to his room to think about what he has done and welcome him back into your good graces if he shows signs of correcting his behavior.

    I acknowledge the upside that comes with a talent like Burrow in a matchup like this, but he has entered prove-it-to-me status. He’s my QB14 this week, ranking behind lesser players who have proven to own higher fantasy floors this season (C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy).

    Joshua Dobbs: He was the punchline of tanking jokes this summer, but it looks like the joke is on us. Dobbs has completed at least 70% of his passes or been involved in multiple touchdowns in all four weeks this season, offering a reasonable fantasy floor after a shaky start to the season.

    My trust in this offense as a whole is limited, and therefore, I don’t see much ceiling potential. That’s why I have Burrow ranked ahead of him in this matchup, though it is far closer than I would have ever guessed just four short weeks ago.

    Running Backs

    Joe Mixon: He hasn’t finished better than RB15 in a week this season, but without a finish worse than RB27, he’s been the most stable part of this disappointing offense up to this point. I like that he is averaging 17 touches per game and that he has a rush gaining 13+ yards in all four games.

    On the downside, Burrow’s struggles are sapping his upside. Mixion has just one score this season due to the ineptitude of this offense as a whole, and three targets total over the past two weeks (10 through the first two weeks) is simply unacceptable.

    Mixon has fallen a touch in my ranks, but he is a fine RB2 that comes with a reasonably narrow range of outcomes. That’s not a great sales job, but a decent floor holds value as long as you have some ceiling potential elsewhere in your starting lineup.

    James Conner: He busted in Week 4 (56 yards) against the 49ers, a matchup that was always going to be an issue. The veteran was a top-25 running back in each of the first three weeks this season, and I have him projected to get back on track against the third-worst run defense on a per-carry basis.

    Wide Receivers

    Ja’Marr Chase: Despite the struggles of Burrow, Chase has managed to catch 79.2% of his targets over the past two weeks for 214 yards. The four-game scoring drought to open this season is twice as long as anything he experienced last season, and there are two ways to read that:

    1. Run away, this offense is broken
    2. Run toward, he can only be held in check for so long

    I lean toward the latter, especially if Burrow elects to lock in on him in an effort to break out of this funk. I have Chase outside of my top 10 at the moment, and that’s a significant dip in ranking, but it doesn’t move him near my bench.

    Tee Higgins: He suffered a broken rib in the third quarter of Week 4’s loss in Tennessee and has been ruled OUT for this week. He has one good game this season (eight catches for 89 yards and two scores against the Ravens in Week 2), and while I’m not a doctor, I have broken ribs before, and this could linger. We will see how this situation plays out with time, but the Week 5 situation is straight forward – remove him from your lineups.

    Tyler Boyd: We are coming up on the one-year anniversary since the last time Boyd cleared 60 receiving yards in a game. While I understand the thought process in bumping him up the ranks this week if Higgins sits, the fact of the matter is that targets in this offense just aren’t currently worth what we expected them to be.

    Boyd deserves to be rostered with Higgins OUT due to the lack of another option to fill that role, but I’m not playing him this week – he’s outside of my top 40.

    Marquise Brown: Hollywood has gone over 14 fantasy points in three straight games and has been a top-20 producer at the position in consecutive weeks against two premiere defenses in Dallas and San Francisco.

    The production has been steady of late, though I do worry about how effective this passing game can be against the fifth-blitz-heaviest defense in the NFL. I’m not crazy about banking on Brown creating throwing lanes in tight coverage, nor am I sure that Dobbs will handle the heat well. I could be talked into Brown as a Flex play, but nothing more.

    Michael Wilson: The 6’2” rookie was deservedly added in a bunch of leagues after his seven-catch, 76-yard, two-touchdown breakout against the Niners. He’s going to be on the field plenty (Arizona had three receivers run at least 35 routes last week), and that’s step one in a breakout, but the consistency of this offense will make this year a bumpy ride for the pride of Stanford.

    While I’m not yet sold on him as a top-40 receiver in redraft, I very much like his prospects in dynasty if Arizona can solve the quarterback position.

    Tight Ends

    Zach Ertz: Mike Vick was the quarterback who got Ertz his first NFL completion. The veteran has been around the league for a long time, and yet, he is out here with as many top-20 finishes at the position through four weeks as George Kittle and Mark Andrews combined.

    Life comes at you fast. While the per-target upside is limited, to say the least, he has seen at least eight looks in three of four games and has a reasonable floor in PPR leagues. Not every one of your starters has to have week-winning potential: There is value in those who are unlikely to lose you ground on your competition, and that is a box Ertz has certainly checked thus far.

    I remain somewhat skeptical that the 32-year-old can keep earning targets at this rate and have him just outside of my top 15 at the position.

    New York Jets at Denver Broncos

    • Spread: Broncos -2
    • Total: 43
    • Jets implied points: 20.5
    • Broncos implied points: 22.5

    Quarterbacks

    Russell Wilson: In somewhat of a resurgence, Wilson has 300 passing yards or a 75% completion rate in all four games this season. Those numbers have allowed him to post a pair of top-10 weeks, though some context needs to be put alongside that production.

    In Week 2, his high finish was supported by a six fantasy point Hail Mary at the buzzer. In Week 4, he played a bad Bears defense and was in an unlikely pass-friendly script. I’m not banking on any of those factors coming into play in this spot, and that is why Wilson isn’t getting higher than QB15 for me this week.

    Running Backs

    Breece Hall: We are one month into the season, and 60% of Hall’s rushing yards have come on two carries. I’m not asking him to apologize for those big runs, but relying on such a play is a dangerous way for fantasy managers to make a living.

    Due to the limitations of this offense, Hall has yet to exceed 13 touches in a game this season. In an offense that is rarely in scoring position, those touches can only hold so much value and will result in him being ranked outside of my top 25 consistently. That’s the case in this matchup, even given the recent struggles of Denver.

    Dalvin Cook: Forget starting him, Cook doesn’t need to be rostered. He had 16 touches in the opening win over the Bills and has a total of 22 in the three weeks since. He was out-snapped by Michael Carter in Week 4 (18-15), and with scoring opportunities few and far between, Cook’s ceiling isn’t very appealing.

    Javonte Williams: A hip injury ruled him out of last week’s win against the Bears, though it is not expected to be a long-term issue. If he plays, he will be a Flex option at best, understanding that he doesn’t have more than 65 yards or a touchdown in a game this season and would carry re-injury risk.

    Jaleel McLaughlin: I believe that Williams is the most talented RB in this backfield, though the rookie did pile up 104 yards and a score on his 10 opportunities last week. He’s worth a roster spot no matter the status of Williams, if for no other reason than he has per-touch upside and plays behind a starter with some health red flags.

    He is playing ahead of Samaje Perine these days, and that makes him the preferred option should Williams sit, but we aren’t talking about a player you should be overly confident in starting. I mentioned my confidence in Williams from a talent standpoint, and he hasn’t been able to produce a top-25 week this season.

    Wide Receivers

    Garrett Wilson: We can all admit that Zack Wilson looked better last week than in the first three games, and that’s encouraging. It should be noted, however, that with his quarterback overachieving, Wilson turned 14 targets into just 10.5 fantasy points.

    Wilson’s next top-20 finish this season will be his first, and he could well see a lot of Patrick Surtain II this week. I’m in no rush to bet on this offense yet, specifically against one of the game’s shutdown corners.

    Allen Lazard: The former Packer is clearly the WR2 in this offense, and his WR14 finish in Week 4 was impressive, but let’s not get carried about. If it was Aaron Rodgers under center, I may be able to talk myself into Lazard being rosterable, but considering that last week was his first top-55 finish at the position this season, I’m not taking the bait.

    Jerry Jeudy: Could this be a get-right spot if the Broncos are creative with their formations and don’t line him up across from Sauce Gardner on a consistent basis? It’s certainly possible when you consider that Wilson is playing at a decent level and that Jeudy caught seven balls for 96 yards in this matchup a season ago.

    I have Jeudy projected to post his first top-32 finish of the season and am actually even a little more optimistic than that (WR25).

    Courtland Sutton: While Jeudy hasn’t been a top-32 receiver once this season, Sutton has done it three times as the healthier of the two options. I have the two ranked within the same low-end WR2 tier this week, though I will admit the fact that Sutton turned nine targets into just 23 yards against the Jets last season has me a bit worried.

    Sutton owns a 71.4% catch rate this season, and if this connection with Wilson is here to stay, he’s going to rank as a top-25 option for me more often than not.

    Marvin Mims: With a 38+ yard catch in three straight games, the upside of this rookie is no secret and becomes more valuable as we enter bye-week season. That said, if I’m throwing a dart on a big-play threat like this, I want him to be on the field consistently. That has yet to be the case for Mims (he and two other receivers all ran 7-12 routes in Week 4), adding risk to a profile that already includes significant downside.

    He is gradually moving up in the hierarchy (catching Brandon Johnson in snaps is a nice step forward), and he will look to continue that growth on my bench this week.

    Tight Ends

    It’s a position that is required for your weekly fantasy lineup, but you need not look at this game. I don’t care how bleak your situation is – you can do better.

    Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings

    • Spread: Chiefs -5
    • Total: 53
    • Chiefs implied points: 29
    • Vikingsimplied points: 24

    Quarterbacks

    Patrick Mahomes: The reigning MVP was anything but sharp on Sunday night against the Jets (203 pass yards with one score and two interceptions), but there is nothing to worry about here, and he sits atop my QB ranks for Week 5.

    That touchdown pass last week made him the fastest to 200 career TD tosses in NFL history, though it isn’t his right arm that has me feeling great about his status moving forward. Mahomes ranks second at the position in rushing yards (pace: 654), elevating what is already a high projectable floor. Read nothing into the bizarre Week 4 performance and use your mental energy elsewhere.

    Kirk Cousins: The Vikings hardly had the ball last weekend against the Panthers, but Cousins was able to throw multiple touchdown passes for a fifth straight game as he continues to offer consistent per-pass production.

    Pass count shouldn’t be an issue this week against a high-scoring Chiefs team in a game with a projected total that sits at 53. Cousins was a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the first three weeks, and I have him returning to that form.

    Now, I will admit to being impressed with the Chiefs’ defense (top-six in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and points allowed), but the optionality of this offense with Justin Jefferson leading the way puts Cousins in a position to succeed.

    Running Backs

    Isiah Pacheco: His showing out last week wasn’t a fluke; it was only a matter of time. He has seen his carry count increase each week this season and has three plays of 30+ yards over the past three weeks. His involvement in the pass game has taken a nice step forward (five more routes run than Jerick McKinnon last week), and with no receiver stepping up, Pacheco’s role is critical to the success of this offense.

    Pacheco’s weekly finishes this season:

    • Week 1: 35th
    • Week 2: 25th
    • Week 3: 11th
    • Week 4: 7th

    That’s a trend that I am buying. As long as Mahomes is leading this offense to the red zone four times a game, something he has done throughout his career, Pacheco’s role and running style make him a strong RB2 each and every week.

    Jerick McKinnon: You could argue that the Chiefs are playing the long game with McKinnon like they did last season, waiting to unleash him until the second half of the season.

    Sure, that could happen, but for right now, he doesn’t matter. He hasn’t finished better than RB50 in three of four weeks and has just 13 touches on his 2023 résumé. As of now, he isn’t a threat to Pacheco, nor does he need to be rostered in standard-sized fantasy leagues.

    Alexander Mattison: After a pair of inefficient efforts to open the season, he is averaging 94 rush yards per game (5.1 yards per carry) and looks like a feature back that you can count on weekly.

    The concern is his versatility — or lack thereof. After averaging 5.7 targets through three games without Cam Akers active, Mattison earned just one look in the passing game against the Panthers in Week 4. He doesn’t rely on targets to drive his fantasy value, though it helped stabilize his floor early this season. There is more risk moving forward than there was previously, but the 15-18 carry role appears safe and makes him a top-20 option for me this week.

    Cam Akers: In his team debut, Akers looked just fine (seven touches for 51 games) and filled a role that could turn into something fantasy managers consider with time. Against the Panthers, he ran a route on half of his snaps (Mattison: 30.3%), potentially putting him in a spot to carve out a past Kareem Hunt-ish role that holds value in a PPR setting.

    He’s nowhere near lineups yet, and I’m not sure he even needs to be rostered at this moment in time, though his usage is certainly something I’ll be tracking.

    Wide Receivers

    Rashee Rice: For the third time in four weeks, Rice saw at least five targets, but also, for the third time in four weeks, he failed to reach 35 receiving yards. His involvement is the most stable among the receivers in this offense, and that has him atop this WR room in my Week 5 ranks.

    That said, you don’t need to worry about him. The Chiefs don’t have a receiver inside of the top 45 at the position in receptions, speaking to the limited projectable upside that we can assign any of the non-Travis Kelce options in this passing game.

    Skyy Moore: For the season, 48.2% of Moore’s receiving yards came on the 52-yarder in Jacksonville in Week 2, and in Week 4, he was shut out for the second time in the opening month. The ceiling for all of these Chief receivers is reasonable, given the scoring environment in which they play, but with a rock-bottom floor and without consistent looks, Moore isn’t a must-roster player anymore.

    Marquez Valdes-Scantling: I understand that targets from Mahomes are more valuable than targets from any other human on planet Earth, but with nine targets through the first month, MVS simply isn’t in a fantasy-friendly spot. Sure, it’s worth noting that two of his six catches have gained more than 30 yards. If you want to plug him in and pray when your roster is ravaged by injuries/byes, go for it, but there’s no other role he should be filling for you right now.

    Justin Watson: His name makes the list because his 41 snaps played on Sunday night led Kansas City receivers, but with all four of the mentioned WRs running 17-22 routes, Watson is firmly outside of the mix in standard-sized leagues.

    Not included in that sample size is Kadarius Toney, a receiver who was on the field for just 17 snaps. He caught both targets (22 yards), though his playing time is preventing him from being a must-roster fantasy option.

    Justin Jefferson: The Panthers held Jefferson to a season-low in catches, targets, and yards last week. All of those things are true, and he still lit them up for 23.5 fantasy points. The ceiling is similar for all of the elite receivers, but there isn’t a receiver in the game who offers a fantasy floor that rivals that of Jefferson.

    Jordan Addison: One week after showing signs of potentially distancing himself from K.J. Osborn in the race for the WR2 role in Minnesota, Addison was a no-show in the win against the Panthers. He failed to catch his one target, and while that is a bummer for fantasy managers, it was a weird game across the board and likely is more of a bump in the road than a reason for panic.

    Cousins averaged 32 completions through the first three weeks of this season. On Sunday, he attempted 19 passes. Not completed, attempted. I used this space last week to highlight Cousins’ near 6,100-yard pace and noted that it was sustainable.

    His true outcome will be somewhere in the middle of these extremes, and that still makes the WR2 role in Minnesota one that I’ll consider as a top-25 fantasy receiver most weeks should the role be won outright.

    Addison ranks ahead of Osborn for me in this potential shootout, checking in as WR28.

    K.J. Osborn: Addison was shut out last week, making Osborn’s one-catch 16-yard performance not seem so bad, but again, this wasn’t the type of game that I anticipate seeing from Minnesota with any sort of consistency. It should be noted that Osborn was on the field for 12 more snaps than his rookie counterpart, though his edge in routes run was only four.

    The high-scoring projection for this game allows Osborn to slide into my top-50 at the position, though the floor is clearly a low one, given that the next time he reaches 40 yards this season will be the first.

    Tight Ends

    Travis Kelce: As you know, this article releases every Thursday, and you should have read it upon publication on your things-to-do list. If that is the case, thank you! Also, wish Kelce a happy 34th birthday. The GOAT has seen at least eight targets in every game this season, and even in a Week 4 performance where Mahomes didn’t look great, Kelce finished with more catches than any of his teammates had targets.

    Noah Gray hauled in the 34-yard touchdown against the Jets. No, we don’t have a tight end committee happening here. Kelce leads the position in both ceiling and floor outcomes, making him my TE1 any week in which he is playing.

    T.J. Hockenson: Have I mentioned yet that Week 4 was an outlier for this high-octane offense? They held the ball for under 22 minutes against the Panthers, an outlier game flow that is statistically unlikely to happen. From a macro standpoint, Jefferson was the only Viking with more catches, targets, or receiving yards than Hockenson — there’s no concern here, and you should feel great about considering he and Mark Andrews the second tier of fantasy TE.

    Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

    • Spread: 49ers -3.5
    • Total: 45
    • Cowboys implied points: 20.8
    • 49ers implied points: 24.3

    Quarterbacks

    Dak Prescott: For the second time this season, Prescott played great real-life football (QBR over 80 and a Passer Rating over 105) without greatly impacting our fantasy sphere. Neither Sam Howell nor Jordan Love was especially impressive on tape in Week 4, but guess what? Both out-scored Prescott for fantasy purposes.

    The fact that peak Prescott isn’t more than a low-end streamer tells you all you need to know about this offense. Dallas doesn’t want Prescott to put up fantasy numbers, and his 37 passes for a whopping 8.2 fantasy points against San Francisco in their playoff meetings give you an idea of just how sideways this can go.

    He’s a reasonably big name because of the city in which he plays, but make no mistake about it: Prescott should, under no circumstances, be on your radar this weekend.

    Brock Purdy: With multiple passing touchdowns or a rushing score in all four games this season, Purdy has sustained the appealing fantasy floor that he showcased late last season.

    That said, he has completed more than 20 passes just once this season and lacks the volume base that I need when facing an elite defense like that of Dallas. Even with a few of the usual suspects out on bye this week, Purdy is more of a streamer than someone I feel comfortable with. He threw for just 214 yards with no scores in the playoff meeting and is on the outside looking in at my top 12 this week, ranking in the Jordan Love/C.J. Stroud tier.

    Running Backs

    Tony Pollard: He hasn’t scored in three straight games after punching in two TDs against the Giants in the season opener, but his 374-touch pace is a role that keeps him inside of my top five at the position for the rest of the season. He should be well rested after a rare low usage week in the blowout of New England and is a lineup lock.

    In fact, I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to site the consecutive so-so finishes and leverage a tough Week 5 matchup to potentially pry Pollard away in a trade/ That’s not to say his value is low right now, I just think it’s set to spike sooner or later, and I like to see you guys build super teams!

    If you need fuel in those negotiations, tell your trade partner that Pollard/Ezekiel Elliott managed just 48 yards on 16 carries last winter in this matchup. If they are desperate, maybe they overreact.

    Christian McCaffrey: Not that you needed a reminder that CMC is a cheat code, but he gave you one last week with 177 yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals. It was his third game this season with 100 rush yards, a rush touchdown, and at least three catches.

    There will be more than a few top-10 fantasy backs that don’t have three games like that this season, and he’s done it in the first month. He checks every box and is dominating the position in a similar fashion to what we’ve seen Travis Kelce do at the TE position in recent years.

    He turned 16 touches into just 57 yards against the Cowboys last season, but he scored and returned fine fantasy numbers in a day in which he was bottled up.

    Elijah Mitchell: On Thursday of last week, Mitchell suffered a knee injury at practice, and that resulted in him sitting out the easy win over the Cardinals. There are no indications that this injury is a long-term concern, though the dream of standalone value behind McCaffrey is nothing but a pipe dream.

    Go ahead and roster Mitchell (he did carry 14 times for 51 yards against Dallas last season); just understand that he won’t be on my Flex radar as long as McCaffrey is fully healthy.

    Wide Receivers

    CeeDee Lamb: I was asked on the PFN Fantasy YouTube Channel (I’m on there taking questions every Tuesday at 1:00 p.m. ET and every Sunday at noon) if I would trade Puka Nacua for Lamb. The point of the question was centered around the Rams’ situation with Kupp likely to return sooner than later, but the disrespect to Lamb caught me a bit off guard.

    I understand not wanting to invest heavily in this Dallas pass game, and I’m fully on board with that sentiment. You can be out on this aerial attack and still be in on Lamb as a lock top-10 receiver. He has a touchdown or a 30-yard grab in 10 straight games and is the type of talent that can thrive in any situation/matchup.

    CeeDee Lamb (88) catches a touchdown pass against New England Patriots cornerback Myles Bryant (27) in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium.
    Oct 1, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) catches a touchdown pass against New England Patriots cornerback Myles Bryant (27) in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium.

    Of course, this isn’t a perfect matchup, and I’m not sure the Cowboys score 20 points, but Lamb and Pollard should be started with confidence every single week. Want proof? All you have to do is look at this meeting last postseason. Lamb’s rates in that game:

    • 35.1% of Prescott targets
    • 43.5% of Prescott completions
    • 56.8% of Dallas’ receiving yards

    He is a WR1 staple in my ranks and a dynasty building block. No questions asked.

    Brandin Cooks: Without a 30-yard performance or a top-60 week on his résumé this season, you can stop waiting on Cooks to prove worthy of a roster spot. I’m not 100% sure that this offense is capable of supporting a consistent second pass-catching option, and even if I am wrong with that, Cooks might be the fourth option. Many leagues have shallow benches – there are better options on your wire.

    Michael Gallup: After totaling just two catches on four targets through two weeks, Gallup has caught 11 balls on 13 targets in consecutive top-40 finishes. The recent production is encouraging, though I expect it to come to an end in a matchup against the best defense in football. If you’re stuck due to bye weeks, Gallup is the WR2 I want in this offense, but I’d be more likely to roll the dice on your favorite secondary Packer receiver or play everyone’s favorite game of pick-a-Chief at the WR position.

    Deebo Samuel: A ribs injury kept him sidelined at practice all week, and it showed in the game. Despite pacing 49er receivers in both snaps (48) and routes (20), Samuel didn’t earn a single target, and his three carries did virtually no damage (six yards).

    His practice status is something to track as kickoff approaches: not because I’m worried about him gutting it out, but a limited version of him against this Cowboys defense is asking for trouble. Of course, if he is close to full strength, he’s in your lineup – over 100 total yards and a touchdown in each of the two games prior to Week 4’s dud.

    Brandon Aiyuk: It was pretty clear that Samuel wasn’t right last week, and that allowed Aiyuk to produce top-10 fantasy numbers for the second time in three games. I’m comfortable playing Aiyuk regardless of the reports around Samuel, though his floor certainly rises if his versatile teammate is again hampered.

    You guys know the drill. The second you feel like you have a beat on this 49ers pass-catching core, they take the rug out from under you. Aiyuk caught just two passes for 26 yards against Dallas in the playoff win, giving us a picture of what the floor could be if Samuel is 100% healthy. I’m not betting on that being the case, but we’ve seen this offense pivot before, and we know it’s coming with time.

    Tight Ends

    Jake Ferguson: This preseason, we figured one of the receivers would step into a consistent role alongside Lamb, but it’s been Ferguson earning targets at a high rate (seven targets or a touchdown in all four games this season). I’ve looked at all of the metrics, trying to poke holes in having him locked in as a top-12 tight end both this week and the rest of the way – no luck.

    The way in which he is being used passes the smell test at a position where any level of consistent opportunity makes you of interest. If you were streaming tight ends this season and landed on Ferguson, I think you’ve found your answer. This isn’t a great matchup, though we did see 10 targets thrown the way of Ertz in this matchup last season.

    George Kittle: Remember a minute ago when I was discussing the nature of his 49ers passing game? Kittle was an afterthought against the Rams in Week 2, a featured piece in Week 3 against the Giants, and then again a no-show against the Cardinals last week.

    He has one finish better than TE27 this season, and yet, because there is so much fragility at the TE position outside of the top six, I’m not sure how you could possibly feel good in benching Kittle. His upside is matched by three players at the position, and that fact alone keeps him as a must-start every week – even if there are some infuriating results.

    Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders

    • Spread: Packers -2.5
    • Total: 44.5
    • Packers implied points: 23.5
    • Raiders implied points: 21

    Quarterbacks

    Jordan Love: Is it true that Love has cleared 17.5 fantasy points in every game this season? It is, but this is beginning to feel like the Titanic taking on water.

    OK, so that may be a bit dramatic, and this is a plus matchup, but you get where I’m going with this – what he was doing to open this season was simply unsustainable. His fantasy points per pass attempt by week:

    • Week 1 at CHI: 0.87
    • Week 2 at ATL: 0.72
    • Week 3 vs. NO: 0.28
    • Week 4 vs. DET: 0.27

    A rushing score has saved his fantasy stock in consecutive weeks, and with three viable quarterbacks on bye this week (Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, and Deshaun Watson), he’s a reasonable streamer in this favorable matchup, I just want to caution against setting the expectations too high, even with this roster trending toward full strength.

    Jimmy Garoppolo: After suffering a concussion in Week 3, Garoppolo failed to pass through protocol in time to suit up for last week’s loss to the Chargers. We’ve seen everyone who enters the protocol this season miss exactly one week, including teammate Jakobi Meyers, making it reasonably safe to assume that the best jawline in sports is back in time for this primetime battle that features his star receiver in a revenge spot.

    No, he’s not a world beater, and no, he himself isn’t of interest this week for me (low-end QB2), but in his three starts this season, he averages 23% more yards per pass than what Aidan O’Connell produced in his debut last week, making his return good news for all involved.

    Running Backs

    Aaron Jones: Game flow certainly did Jones no favors in his return to action last week after missing a pair of games, but six touches for 14 yards is underwhelming no matter how you look at it.

    Dillon held nearly a 2:1 snap edge over Jones in the loss to Detroit, something I expect to level off sooner rather than later. A committee situation in an offense that may not be any better than league average isn’t overly encouraging, but in a good matchup and with a long week to prepare, Jones is an RB2 for me in Week 5.

    AJ Dillon: To call the first month of the 2023 NFL season underwhelming for Dillon would be an understatement. A vast understatement. His 47 touches this season have netted just 15.8 fantasy points, and if you’re a glutton for punishment, I will tell you that his per-touch production this season is half of what Deon Jackson averages for his career. Not ideal.

    Dillon deserves to be rostered if for no other reason than a double-digit touch role just isn’t available in most leagues, but until we get visual proof pointing in a different direction, there’s no way he should be near fantasy lineups when Jones is active.

    Josh Jacobs: For the third time in four weeks, Jacobs reached 20 touches in Week 4. The role is nothing short of elite, but this was better than what we had seen through three weeks, an encouraging sign in a plus matchup with the Chargers. He scored his first touchdown of the season, led the team in receptions, had his longest gain of the season (21-yard catch), and posted career bests in both receiving yards (81) and targets (11).

    He was also an inch away from another score in a possession that ended with an O’Connell sneak touchdown. So there was a lot of good to come from Week 4. That said, you’re not in the clear yet.

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    He is flirting with a calendar year since his last rush gaining more than 20 yards and doesn’t have a single carry (62 attempts) gaining more than 10 yards this season. He is just under two yards tall, and he is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry behind this brutal offensive line.

    The Lions ran for 211 yards and three scores on Thursday night against these Packers last week, giving Jacobs matchup-winning upside in the final game of the week.

    Wide Receivers

    Christian Watson: One big catch and one score, welcome back. Watson has scored once every 5.4 catches during his NFL career, a rate that is beyond unsustainable (Calvin Johnson’s career rate: 8.8). That said, it was good to see him make it through his season debut without any setbacks and his return to action was planned well by the Packers, as he has a long week to recover and prepare for Week 5.

    In Week 4, Watson ran just 20 routes, ranking him fifth among Packer pass catchers. That’s going to change with time, though with Romeo Doubs proving capable of earning targets and Jayden Reed flashing upside, there is no denying that there is some legitimate target competition in an offense whose quarterback is completing just 56.1% of his passes.

    I’m not ready to lock in Watson as a starter in all formats, and I’m not sure I’ll get there at any point, but there is certainly upside to chase in a plus-matchup. He’s the type of player I’ll Flex if I’m an underdog and can take on some risk.

    Romeo Doubs: The second-year receiver has impressed through the first month, earning a 25.6% target share this season (43.1% over the past two weeks), with his yardage total increasing each week. He’s making plays down the field and looks good in doing so, but I’d be cautious about slotting him into lineups just yet.

    As encouraging as the start is, his best showing last season post-Watson breakout was a 17.9% target share when the two shared the field. That’s not to say he can’t compete for the WR1 role in this offense as Watson trends toward full strength, but it is something I’m keeping in mind until we see a change. Doubs needs to be rostered and could well prove to be the top receiver in this offense, but I need evidence he can earn looks at an elite rate with Watson healthy.

    Jayden Reed: The rookie has a 30-yard catch in three of four games and has earned no less than five targets in each of those contests, though his high aDOT role is in jeopardy as Watson trends toward a clean bill of health.

    More balls thrown his way have hit the turf (13) than he has caught (12), a major concern if the volume (6.3 targets per game) declines in any sort of significant way. His single-play upside in an offense that clearly has plans to stretch the field is worth rostering now that we are in the midst of bye weeks, but he’s nothing more than a risk/reward dart throw.

    Davante Adams: Adams enters a revenge game pacing for 140 catches (212 targets) for a career-high 1,687 yards and 13 touchdowns in an offense with an underwhelming starting quarterback who missed last week. Adams’ target share this season is north of 38% in an offensive strategy we’ve only seen on a few occasions before.

    He is as quarterback/situation-proof a receiver as we have in today’s game and came at a decent discount this summer: enjoy the ride.

    Jakobi Meyers: The box score against the Chargers was underwhelming (two catches for 33 yards), but let’s not overreact. First of all, a quarterback making his debut is obviously a tough spot. That’s just a fact. Khalil Mack was living in the backfield, and outside of quick reads to Adams, there really was no hope for this passing game.

    As bad as this offense was last week, Meyers made an acrobatic 50-yard catch in triple coverage where he was called for a ticky-tack offensive pass interference that negated the play. If that stands, it’s a viable performance despite the lack of continuity, and you’re not thinking twice about Meyers this week.

    With Garoppolo back in the mix, Meyers should be viewed as a low-end WR2 or high-end Flex option. Last week with O’Connell, he saw just a 10.5% target share, but in two weeks with Garoppolo, 31.4% of throws have been directed his way.

    The Packers are giving up 24 points per game this season despite games against the Falcons and Bears, not to mention getting the Lions at home. I prefer Meyers to any Packer receiver in this game and would play him over WR1s like George Pickens and Marquise Brown.

    Hunter Renfrow: The production obviously hasn’t been there, but he might be worth stashing. Both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers have dealt with injuries in the first month of this season, and Renfrow ran a route on 81.8% of his snaps last week. I’m not saying he holds value at the moment because he doesn’t, but the Raiders don’t have their bye until Week 13, and that means that he is reasonable roster depth as you look to navigate injuries/byes over the next two months.

    Garoppolo has never been shy about targeting the slow, and with Renfrow occupying that role, he should at least be on your radar if you have the roster space.

    Tight Ends

    Luke Musgrave: The rookie tight end suffered a first-half concussion against the Lions last week, and in most instances this season, that has resulted in one missed game.

    Could that change with a min-bye given that the Packers played on Thursday? Maybe, but with Green Bay going on bye next week, I’m comfortable in cutting ties with the impressive first-year player and continuing to stream the position. He will be back on the radar when the Packers return to action as they get the Broncos and Vikings in Weeks 7-8.

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