The New York Jets will play the Minnesota Vikings in London on Sunday. The spread is currently at Vikings -2.5, and the game total is 41. The Jets’ implied points are 19.3, and the Vikings’ implied points are 21.8.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jets skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Catch and release.
A Jennifer Garner movie from nearly 20 years ago or the name of the Jets’ playbook?
How about both? Rodgers has the highest quick-pass rate of his career (73.4%; he never reached 70% as a Packer after becoming their full-time starter), and while that has worked when everything clicks (two top-12 finishes), it also takes very little to disturb (QB20 or worse in his other two games).
In theory, the blitz-happy Vikings should be susceptible to such a playbook, but they’ve been able to operate with controlled aggression due to positive game scripts. Your confidence in Rodgers, in my opinion, hinges on your belief in the Vikings.
Minnesota owns the third-lowest opponent passer rating this season (75.0), and after watching them suffocate Rodgers’ former employer for three quarters before letting their guard down, I’m tempted to doubt that he can be efficient enough to make this low volume (10th-slowest) offense that lacks creativity (ninth-lowest play-action rate) work.
Rodgers is an easy bench for me this week and ranks outside of my top 15 at the position.
Breece Hall, RB
Really? I understand that the conditions were less than ideal last week, but 10 carries for four yards? And five targets for 14 yards?
That sort of performance was supposed to be outside of the range of outcomes with an active Rodgers. On a positive note, Hall’s snap share has remained stable (exactly 71.4% in back-to-back-to-back games), and it’s clear that his quarterback has faith in him as he’s seen a downfield target in scoring position in consecutive weeks.
“Unfortunately for me, I haven’t been having the big rushing games, but I’m trying to do my part. I wish I could run for 100, 200 yards every game…realistically right now, I’m the focal point of most defenses. It’s just really not happening.”
– Breece Hall pic.twitter.com/SyxWf4DZCp
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) September 29, 2024
Hall may only have one finish better than RB12 this season, and a talented rookie in Braelon Allen is begging for more work, but I’m not yet worried. This isn’t a great matchup (Minnesota allows the second-fewest yards per running back target), but I’m still trusting Hall’s versatility much the way I am with Bijan Robinson.
This is an above-average offense that is likely to only improve with time. If I can up my Hall exposure due to a reactionary manager, I’m pulling the trigger.
Braelon Allen, RB
In September, the rookie turned 34 touches into 187 yards and a pair of touchdowns. As good as he looked, he’s not being rewarded with more playing time; he’s played 30-36% of New York’s offensive snaps in three straight contests.
Allen is a fantasy asset waiting to happen, I’m just not sure he will get fully unleashed any time soon. This offense runs through Hall/Garrett Wilson, and with Rodgers always milking the clock, this isn’t the type of offense that can sustain three lineup-lock skill players consistently
Outside of an injury to Hall, I’d be surprised if Allen elevated into the top 25 at the position regularly in my rankings – selling him might be an option if there is a manager in your league who thinks he has the potential to take over this backfield.
Garrett Wilson, WR
A learning curve was to be expected from Wilson, as the role of Rodgers’ WR1 requires plenty of timing and trust; yet, September was still underwhelming. He’s seen 8.5 targets per game, and that is a strong number, though he has yet to reach his expected PPR point total in a single game — he’s seen just one end-zone target and has seen his yards-per-route rate decline each week.
The looks should continue to be there (seven times in four weeks has a receiver seen at least eight targets against Minnesota) and you really have no choice but to trust the process, but my ceiling projection in any given week for Wilson is lower now than it was a month ago.
Allen Lazard, WR
Lazard continues to be a comfort blanket for Rodgers, and while that makes him valuable to the Jets, I’m not sure it means much in our game. As Mike Williams works his way close to full strength (New York told us this preseason that they were going to treat Williams’ recovery like they did Hall’s last season, ramping him up throughout September before getting him close to a full-time role as the middle of the season approached), Lazard’s role has changed, and it’s hurting his fantasy upside.
- Weeks 1-2: 11.2 aDOT
- Weeks 3-4: 5.5 aDOT
Lazard was interfered with in the end zone last week, and if he can’t score, he can’t help you (47.4% of his points this season have come on touchdowns). I’d keep him rostered if for no other reason than a connection with Rodgers gives him TD-vulture potential, but counting on anything close to weekly value is dangerous — he sits comfortably outside of my top 40 this week.
Mike Williams, WR
Patience gets rewarded with time, and I think this applies to those who stick with Williams through this ramp-up phase. His target count and yards-per-route-run rate have improved each week this season, and a gorgeous sideline catch on Sunday that helped extend a drive at the end of the first half is exactly the type of play that can help a physically gifted receiver like Williams earn the trust of his signal-caller.
We aren’t there yet, but it wouldn’t shock me if I ranked Williams as a player in the Flex conversation for the second half of this season.
Tyler Conklin, TE
There are five players on this team who own more enticing per-target upside than Conklin, but none of them play tight end, and it’s important to always contextualize your starts — you’re measuring his numbers against other tight ends, not other Jets.
Conklin has nine grabs over the past two weeks after seeing just four targets through Week 2. He has pretty clearly earned Rodgers’ trust in terms of finding zones to sit down in; while that role has resulted in three games without a catch gaining more than 10 yards this season, there’s a path to a viable floor, and that holds value this time of year at a position that is as annoying as any to fill.