Week 2 has arrived, and it is time to dive into the low hanging fruitfulness that is betting on player props.
Here at Pro Football Network’s fraternity of sporting analytical aficionados, we do the work for you and guide you down a path of potential profitability based on our findings, research, and number crunching.
What you will not find in these weekly player prop betting suggestions are the terms “lock” “guarantee” or “free-pick.”
This is merely a suggestive look of attainable propositional situations and reachable statistical benchmarks. Those benchmarks are usually a bit lower for under-the-radar players on the come up and make for more intriguing plays than those lofty over/under numbers from marquee players at high costs.
Sure there is an excellent chance that Julio Jones catches more than six balls on Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. With betting odds at -152, it’s too high of a tax to pay for a player who very well can have a massive fantasy game with six catches for 125 yards and two scores. It would be a tragedy to see that output and not profit on his “over” with receptions.
Unless the odds are likable, going with premium, name-brand players can be costly. However, sometimes the perfect mix of betting odds and the actual prop itself makes for a Play-of-the-Week contender.
With a six-pack of hittable props here, five will feature “over” numbers that aren’t very flashy in both yardage marks and the cost you have to pay to play those betting odds within each wager.
There will also be a “Touchdown-Special” pick in which there will be a rising star mentioned to get into the end-zone at a significant potential payoff.
In terms of what may be the best and most realistic player props in Week 2, here are the five I am betting on along with the TD-special that would pay for them all at +600. That’s right, a reachable bet with +600 worth of a payload.
Mealtime in Washington
When looking at the ratio of hittable yardage mark versus betting odds, there is a perfect play for an absolute stud during Week 2. It just may be the most comfortable player prop to hope for in betting this weekend.
Ezekiel Elliott is all signed and ready to take the league by storm after a little warm-up last week as the Dallas Cowboys coasted to victory against the New York Giants, 35-17. After an off-season contract holdout, the Cowboys welcomed Zeke back last week and used him sparingly at just 13 carries. He took those carries for 53 yards with one being a score and added 10 yards on a lone reception.
This week he has a betting player prop I love as much as he loves cereal, and I am eating it up.
OVER 97.5 rushing + receiving yards (-108): Ekeziel Elliot (2 Units)
First things first, the total rush yards should hit triple-digits against the Washington Redskins, who gave up 123 rushing yards to the Eagles and their running-back-by-committee last week. The Redskins also gave up 29 receiving yards to those Eagle running backs, so to bet on Zeke hitting the century mark in total yards from scrimmage is more than worth the near even-money play at (-108).
Throw a unit on this, and if you wear a star on Sunday, I won’t fault you for doubling-down as this is the official Against the Spread Player Prop Play-of-the-Week.
Moving to more under-the-radar players on the rise, let’s move out west to the late game slate. Here we will look at a rookie runner who needs much less than Zeke’s overall production on the ground to make you money as the football day closes.
The rookie runner
The Oakland Raiders have a young runner in Josh Jacobs who is coming off of an impressive debut against the Denver Broncos last Monday Night. Jacobs had no workload issues as coach Jon Gruden called his number 23 times for an output of 85 yards.
Sure the yards per carry mark was less than stellar, but you have to love the volume. A pair of scores and 20+ carries tells me a Week 2 player prop bar of just 62.5 rushing yards could come halfway into the 3rd quarter against Kansas City.
The Chiefs won easily last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, yet when running back Leonard Fournette carried the ball, he did well with 5.1 yards per run. Playing from behind certainly hampered the Jaguars plan to stick to Fournette and the ground-game, but Jacobs could find success against an average Chiefs run defense.
To hit the 62.5 over rushing yards player prop, Jacobs will need just 16 carries at his 3.7 yards per carry mark from Week 1 to hit this figure. When accounting for a solid matchup, along with the safe bet at more than 16 carries since Jacobs is a featured player, look for the rookie to have another solid game to start his career.
OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-108): Josh Jacobs – (1 Unit)
What other option do you have?
The New York Giants may be in for a tough season, but they do have a few young thoroughbreds who are fantasy purse-winners weekly. Last week, third-year tight end, Evan Engram was all over the field.
Between both veteran quarterback Eli Manning and rookie Daniel Jones, Engram was the most utilized wide-out with 14 targets. He hauled in 11 passes for 116 yards and a score.
With Golden Tate still out due to suspension, as well as Sterling Shepard missing Week 2 due to a concussion, all signs to point to Engram getting a large portion of the workload.
There is no reason to think the Giants won’t target Engram at least as much as last week. With all of the attention focused on running back Saquon Barkley, expect Evans to sail to his 71.5 receiving yardage bar. The odds are a solid (-112), so it’s very tolerable to pay the vig in this case and put a cool unit on this prop.
OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-112): Evan Engram (1 Unit)
What can Brown do for us?
Keeping within the same venue let us look across the sidelines at the Buffalo Bills and a veteran receiver coming off of a productive Week 1 battle in that same location.
This week, the Bills are back in MetLife Stadium, and John Brown has an over/under receiving yardage mark of 53.5 yards. This number is way too low, and while 100+ yards may not be a certainty, the possibility of getting over this figure is more than worth the play at -112 betting odds.
Josh Allen may have himself a legit number one target as was the case last week against the Jets. Allen hooked up with Brown seven times on 10 attempts, good for 123 yards and a touchdown.
Perhaps the third time is the charm for Brown, as he had forgetful stints in Arizona and Baltimore in the first six years of his career. In his last 17 games, Brown has a 17.1 yards per catch average so perhaps three or four receptions can turn his statistical day into monetary profit.
OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-112): John Brown (1 Unit)
The Patriot way… too easy
It is very safe to say the New England at Miami game could see a 21-0 score within five overall offensive plays from the Patriots. It wouldn’t be at all shocking to see running back Sony Michel hit his over 70.5 rush yards player prop on the first carry.
I am only half-joking here.
The Dolphins were abysmal against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and it could get worse this week. Michel could be on the bench by the second half with garbage time closing in early here, but his damage will be done in one quarter.
The (-105) is close to even money, so take the unit-play on Michel and watch it come in before your second sip of whatever your beverage of choice is.
OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-105): Sony Michel- (1 Unit)
Touchdown special
Well, you made it this far so you may as well hang in for the +600 TD-Special of the week.
Rookie Alexander Mattison took nine carries for 49 yards last week in the Vikings home win against the Falcons.
He missed a scoring-run by inches, and there is a sneaking suspicion the rookie finds pay-dirt on the road in Green Bay this weekend.
Call it a hunch, call it what you will, but I am throwing a crisp green Abraham on Mattison scoring at +600 betting odds. That payoff can net you thirty bills.
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