The first week of the NFL season is almost in the books, so it is time to turn our attention to Week 2 with our early picks and predictions.
The premise of this article is to help you identify any potential early-week value in the betting lines while also giving you a rough framework for filling out your Week 2 pick ’em contests.
NFL Week 2 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, and Predictions
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 11, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Bills +114; Dolphins -135
- Total: 48.5
The first week for both of these teams showed us areas of concern but also how resilient each can be under pressure.
Both mounted comebacks in different ways, with Josh Allen and the offense putting the team on their back, while the Dolphins relied behind their defense to shut down the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half.
That gives us the intriguing potential of strength vs. strength when the Bills’ offense is on the field and weakness vs. weakness when the Dolphins’ offense has the ball.
However, it seems crazy to call a Dolphins offense that was among the top three in total offensive expected points added (EPA) last season a bad unit after just one game.
That is why I still favor Miami here. The offense should not be as bad as it looked in Week 1, while the Bills’ defense is a complete unknown with all their changes.
The Dolphins are also 5-1 ATS when facing AFC East teams during September over the last three years, although that one failure to cover was a drubbing at the hands of Buffalo in Miami.
There is also the question of Allen’s left wrist, which was heavily taped during the game. Now, it is not his throwing arm, so that removes some concern, but it could make him hesitant to use his legs, as well as nervous with bodies around him in the pocket if he cannot use that arm to brace when tackled.
The prime-time element in this game somewhat removes the heat factor, which should benefit the Bills.
There are too many unknowns here, so I am passing on the line but looking towards the under.
Each of the Bills’ past three road games in Miami has gone under by at least 13 points, and all of the Dolphins’ last five AFC East games in September have gone under.
Prediction: Dolphins 23, Bills 20
Soppe: When you see the Bills on the schedule, it’s easy to create a story.
“Josh Allen is going to do Josh Allen things. I don’t know if they will get stops, but he’s going to put his team in scoring position”
That story, however, hasn’t proven accurate over time. For his career, unders are 13-7-1 when the Bills are playing in prime time during the regular season (65%), a rate that I’m guessing is well off of your assumption.
Over that stretch, the NFL has followed a similar pattern with under tickets cashing 58.9% of the time in these spotlight games (otherwise: 50.7%).
I like the score prediction above and think it’ll be tight. Unders went 22-12 last season when a divisional game was decided by three or fewer points.
Prediction: Under 48 points
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Dolphins
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- Dallas Robinson: Bills
- Jay Morrison: Bills
- Dakota Randall: Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +320; Ravens -410
- Total: 41.5
The Baltimore Ravens came out of Thursday with a lot to figure out, especially on the penalty front. However, they have 10 days to work it out, and John Harbaugh’s teams are rarely sloppy two games in a row.
Baltimore has covered its last three games after a loss, and this matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders is a perfect bounce-back spot.
The Raiders’ offense was terrible in their opening game, finishing with a -17.52 EPA on that side of the ball. Their defense put together a solid performance, but the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense is a far cry from the dynamism of the Ravens.
This game has the feeling of a Ravens masterclass in how to play football with the advantage of extended rest.
However, eight points is a lot to cover, while the total is pitched just about right, limiting our options.
Straight up in Pick ‘Em contests, it is Baltimore, while the way I am looking to bet this game is a six-point tease with another game on the slate.
I believe the Ravens could cover, but I try to avoid laying eight points if I can.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Raiders 13
Soppe: Some trends are easy to back because they fit the narrative you already feel good about. It’s called confirmation bias, and it’s a helluva drug.
Other trends swerve off the path of “reason” and make you uncomfortable. How committed are you?
Teams catching more than seven points in a game with a projected total under 45 points are 40-25-1 ATS (61,5%) in the past 66 regular-season instances.
Don’t get too crazy. Those teams win outright just 24.2% of the time (16-50 record), though that rate jumps to 37% if you only track games in that sample that occur before Nov. 1.
I’m not going that far, but Lamar Jackson is 10-12-1 ATS when laying more than a full touchdown, and I’ll ride with the numbers, even if a backdoor cover is required.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Raiders 17
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Ravens
- Adam Beasley: Ravens
- Dallas Robinson: Ravens
- Jay Morrison: Ravens
- Dakota Randall: Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Chargers -238; Panthers +195
- Total: 39
To say that the Carolina Panthers were abject in Week 1 is an understatement. They posted a negative EPA in all three elements (offense, defense, special teams), with their -31.65 total EPA being the worst of the entire week.
To add to their woes, Bryce Young finished with the worst passer rating of his career, which is saying something given his struggles as a rookie last year.
The Chargers’ win over the Raiders was not particularly eye-catching, but it was clinical enough.
J.K. Dobbins was the star of the show and carried an offense that was otherwise fairly poor. Justin Herbert’s EPA per dropback was -0.25, which was tied with Young. This is a Chargers team that will likely live and die by the rush, and fortunately for them, the Panthers couldn’t stop the run this week.
Until I see Los Angeles’ offense look more cohesive, I am not laying 5.5 points with them. This total of 39.5 is so low that it scares me after the way the Panthers’ defense made the New Orleans Saints’ offense look this week.
I am going to pass on this game from a betting perspective while picking the Chargers to win straight up.
Prediction: Chargers 20, Panthers 17
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Chargers
- Adam Beasley: Chargers
- Dallas Robinson: Chargers
- Jay Morrison: Chargers
- Dakota Randall: Chargers
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Saints +230; Cowboys -285
- Total: 46.5
We are likely going to learn a lot from this game because both teams had dominant wins, but neither was really tested. Both teams had fairly comfortable leads by the half and were in cruise control in the second half.
The Saints looked incredibly impressive on offense under Klint Kubiak, and they can beat teams in lots of different ways, but did their opponents elevate their performance beyond what we can normally expect? Their 31.65 net EPA was the best in the league in Week 1 but is almost certainly unsustainable in the long term.
The Cowboys won, but the numbers show that it was largely due to defense and special teams. Dak Prescott’s EPA per dropback was worse than Young or Herbert’s, while the offense as a whole was the 10th-worst unit in the league in terms of total offensive EPA through Sunday.
The Cowboys are a good home team, going 17-8 against the spread over the past three seasons. They did not lose a home game during the regular season last year, winning all but two by double-digit points.
I cannot back the Cowboys to cover here, and the Saints will likely be one of the underdogs I take this week, with those odds offering nice value.
New Orleans +12.5 could also be the second part of the six-point teaser with the Ravens.
Prediction: Saints 24, Cowboys 23
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Cowboys
- Adam Beasley: Cowboys
- Dallas Robinson: Cowboys
- Jay Morrison: Cowboys
- Dakota Randall: Cowboys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +285; Lions -360
- Total: 51.5
We have another playoff repeat for the Detroit Lions in Week 2 after they beat the Los Angeles Rams in overtime on Sunday Night Football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers barely broke a sweat in beating the Washington Commanders and largely controlled the game throughout.
The Buccaneers were particularly good offensively, but that could easily be a product of a Commanders defense that has faded badly in recent years. Their defensive performance will be a concern, but a lot of that damage was done in garbage time or by the legs of Jayden Daniels, which is very unlikely to be repeated this week.
Still, we will find out a lot more about Tanpa’s pass defense in this matchup. The health of the Bucs’ cornerbacks is a concern that we need to watch.
I would avoid betting too heavily on this game until we get more news. That news is unlikely to move the line considerably, but if we hear a couple of those corners are limited or out, then this is a game I am staying well away from.
Jared Goff has generally been excellent in his career when favored by six points or more, with a 24-6 straight-up record. However, he is just 16-13-1 against the spread in those same games.
That is essentially how I view this game, with the Lions winning but not covering. The total is right in the range I expect, so that is a pass.
Prediction: Lions 27, Buccaneers 23
Soppe: I’m back in agreement with the listed prediction for this game, though my instinct was to back the home team.
Since the beginning of 2018, teams favored in September where the projected total cross 50 points are just 16-34 ATS (32%).
Interestingly enough, these favorites in these spots gain steam as the cold weather nears. Over that same stretch, favorites in these projected shootouts cover 46.1% of the time in October and 52.6% of the time in November.
Baker Mayfield was, without much question, the king of the PFN QB Rankings in Week 1, and if he can play at anything close to that level, this game could well reflect Detroit’s Week 1 nailbiter against Los Angeles,
Prediction: Buccaneers +7.5
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Lions
- Adam Beasley: Lions
- Dallas Robinson: Lions
- Jay Morrison: Lions
- Dakota Randall: Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Green Bay Packers
- Moneyline: Colts -148; Packers +124
- Total: 41
With 30 seconds left in Friday’s game, the Indianapolis Colts being favored over the Green Bay Packers seemed very unlikely. But everything changed when Jordan Love was helped from the field with an MCL sprain that will see him miss around a month to six weeks.
That leaves the Colts as surprise favorites, and quite honestly, three points seem light.
The Anthony Richardson show was everything we expected in Week 1 — moments of brilliance mixed in with moments of despair.
Overall, the Colts’ offensive performance was more than solid, and it simply came down to the Houston Texans’ offense being that little bit better than the Colts.
That is not likely to be the case this week.
Malik Willis is expected to start for the Packers, but that could, in theory, change if they sign someone from a practice squad or add a free agent such as Ryan Tannehill.
Either way, the Packers’ offense will likely be pretty stripped back this week, which should result in a low-scoring unit. Their defense showed enough vulnerability Friday that I will take Indianapolis to cover in a fairly comfortable manner.
Prediction: Colts 27, Packers 13
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Colts
- Adam Beasley: Colts
- Dallas Robinson: Colts
- Jay Morrison: Packers
- Dakota Randall: Packers
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
- Moneyline: Browns +136; Jaguars -162
- Total: 41.5
For portions of Week 1, the Jaguars looked impressive, and then they just did not finish. That is perhaps the story of the Trevor Lawrence era in Jacksonville, and it is incredibly frustrating to watch as a neutral observer. This week, he will face a strong defense in the Browns, which could make it tough for the Jags’ offense to find any consistency again.
The Browns’ offense was really poor this week, with Deshaun Watson ranking among the worst quarterbacks in the league. That is not promising, given the way the Jaguars’ defense held strong against the Dolphins’ offense. It would not be a surprise to see the Browns’ offense struggle again this week.
At this stage, I have lost all faith in trusting Lawrence. Some weeks, he looks like the next-generation QB he was expected to be. Other times, he looks less than league average.
I would rather not lay the three points on that situation.
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Browns 20
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Jaguars
- Adam Beasley: Jaguars
- Dallas Robinson: Jaguars
- Jay Morrison: Jaguars
- Dakota Randall: Browns
San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: 49ers -258; Vikings +210
- Total: 45.5
The San Francisco 49ers looked a lot like what we have come to expect over recent seasons. We are not expecting them to light up the scoreboard, but it would be a surprise if they were not one of the most efficient offensive teams once again.
What we saw of the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 was impressive, but it has to be tempered by just how poor the New York Giants were. Sam Darnold was comfortable without doing anything incredible, and the defense made Daniel Jones look like an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start.
I expect this game to look a lot different for the Vikings. They should not be able to dominate defensively with the 49ers in the same way they did with the Giants.
I expect Minnesota to come back down to earth, but San Francisco’s winning margin could be right in that seven-point range, making this a tough game to call.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 20
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: 49ers
- Adam Beasley: 49ers
- Dallas Robinson: 49ers
- Jay Morrison: Vikings
- Dakota Randall: 49ers
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Seahawks -175; Patriots +145
- Total: 38
It took a little while, but eventually, the Seahawks’ offense sprung to life and finished off the Denver Broncos in Week 1. However, if it had not been for their defense shutting down the Broncos’ offense, they may not have had that opportunity.
The Seattle offense finished with a -8.61 EPA, while the defense was at 23.96. That is the same potential game script the Seahawks could face this week.
The New England Patriots’ defense was excellent against the Cincinnati Bengals, ensuring their offense did not have to do anything other than be ordinary. Their game plan this year is to keep games low-scoring and hope their offense can score 16-20 points each week. But that will keep opponents in games and mean we could see a lot of close losses this year.
At this point, it is tough to know if Denver’s defense is good or if the Seahawks’ offense has major problems. We may not know that answer this week because we know the New England defense is going to be a good unit.
My instinct will be to pick against the Patriots all year, but they already bit me once. I am going to pass on this game entirely because I do not trust either team.
Prediction: Seahawks 20, Patriots 17
Soppe: If you have a researcher/analyst in your life and want to understand why they don’t get much sleep this time of year, it’s games like this. Try to stick with me here.
Since 2017, teams carrying significant “momentum” have a losing ATS record. I left that vague intentionally. Over that stretch, teams that won their previous game outright as an underdog by more than seven points are 24-28-1 ATS (46.2%).
That’s not a damning rate, but it does dispel the notion that you’ll see on social media about an extreme result one week impacting the next. I was going to be backing the Seahawks before this trend, and obviously, I am not moving off it now.
But wait, there’s more.
If you’re with me in thinking the Hawks cover this number, you have yourself a mini-SGP in the making. Since the start of 2020, when a road favorite covers in September, under tickets cash 77.1% of the time (27-8)!
Prediction: Seahawks -3.5 with the game total under 38.5
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Seahawks
- Adam Beasley: Seahawks
- Dallas Robinson: Seahawks
- Jay Morrison: Seahawks
- Dakota Randall: Patriots
New York Jets (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
- Moneyline: Jets -170; Titans +142
- Total: 40.5
The New York Jets Week 1 performance was concerning. Their defense did not look as good as we expected, and their offense looked rusty. They should be better as the season goes on, and that could start as soon as Week 2 with a game against the Titans.
The Titans’ Week 1 loss to the Chicago Bears was not pretty. Will Levis ranked as the worst quarterback of the week in terms of EPA per dropback, which is saying something given the poor performances around the league.
I don’t back Tennessee to score more than 10 points this week, so unless New York looks awful on Monday Night Football, I’ll be taking the Jets.
Prediction: Jets 24, Titans 10
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Jets
- Adam Beasley: Jets
- Dallas Robinson: Jets
- Jay Morrison: Titans
- Dakota Randall: Jets
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Giants +102; Commanders -122
- Total: 44.5
There is a real contrasting feeling for the Giants and Commanders this week.
Yes, Washington lost by 16 points, but Daniels offered glimmers of hope, and Dan Quinn will likely improve that defense as the year goes on. Offensively, it will be inconsistent, and Daniels’ longevity health-wise is always a concern with his style of play, but it will at least be somewhat fun to watch.
New York is anything but fun to watch. At one point, Daniel Jones had a completion percentage over expectation of -26.2% during Week 1. He finished at -17.3%, which was still the worst in the league.
Despite the Giants calling a relatively conservative game in the first half, Jones struggled, and it is hard to see that changing any time soon.
The Commanders’ defense should be an easier task than the Vikings, but Jones still worries me.
I would prefer not to invest in either of these teams. I will back Washington in my pick-em pools, but that is all I am willing to invest here.
Prediction: Commanders 23, Giants 20
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Commanders
- Adam Beasley: Commanders
- Dallas Robinson: Giants
- Jay Morrison: Commanders
- Dakota Randall: Giants
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
- Moneyline: Rams +102; Chiefs +105
- Total: 50
This game has the potential to be a lot of fun as a duel in the desert.
The Arizona Cardinals’ offense looked lively in their game against the Bills, but their defense left a lot to be desired.
Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Cooper Kupp should be able to pick that unit apart, and Kyler Murray may be asked to play hero ball to keep up with them.
The Rams were a little rusty and gun-shy at times against the Lions. Puka Nacua‘s health will be key to the offense, but Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson are more than adequate foils to Kupp.
Los Angeles should be able to score plenty of points here, and the biggest question is whether the Cardinals’ intriguing offense can keep up.
Prediction: Rams 30, Cardinals 27
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Cardinals
- Adam Beasley: Rams
- Dallas Robinson: Rams
- Jay Morrison: Rams
- Dakota Randall: Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
- Moneyline: Steelers -142; Broncos +120
- Total: 36.5
This has the makings of being a very ugly game of football.
Bo Nix was very bad, and while the numbers for Justin Fields do not suggest he was anything worse than slightly below average, it was a tough watch. The EPA numbers tell you that he was significantly better than Nix, but the Steelers’ offense still finished with a -11.04 EPA.
The thought of putting my money on this game horrifies me, so I will not recommend you do it. In Pick ‘Em pools, I will hold my nose and take the Steelers.
Prediction: Steelers 21, Broncos 17
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Steelers
- Adam Beasley: Steelers
- Dallas Robinson: Broncos
- Jay Morrison: Broncos
- Dakota Randall: Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5)
- Moneyline: Bengals +185; Chiefs -225
- Total: 47.5
What was once an early game-of-the-season candidate now has blowout vibes all over it.
The Cincinnati Bengals were awful on offense and special teams in Week 1, and Joe Burrow finished below Young in terms of EPA per dropback. If Cincinnati were playing a better offense in Week 1, they likely would have lost by double digits.
The Chiefs were not perfect in Week 1, but they had an impressive overall showing.
Mahomes was his usual efficient self, and the offense showed some of its tricks in beating the Ravens. It is so hard to do anything other than say Kansas City by a lot, but we know the NFL does not work like that.
I cannot, in good faith, pick the Bengals here after what we saw against the Patriots. A slightly more open game may suit the Bengals’ offense, but that is still much to recover from.
A six-point tease in this game is effectively taking the Chiefs’ ML which is an easy play for me here.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bengals 21
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Chiefs
- Adam Beasley: Chiefs
- Dallas Robinson: Chiefs
- Jay Morrison: Chiefs
- Dakota Randall: Chiefs
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6)
- Moneyline: Bears +210; Texans -258
- Total: 45.5
The Bears will likely get better as this season goes on, but there were definitely some major concerns in Caleb Williams’ first start. Their offense was a bottom-10 unit in terms of EPA, and their only touchdowns came from the defense and special teams. The defense was at least good, but the Titans are hardly a test. We will find out a lot more about the Bears this week.
The Texans did well this week in a game that could be between two playoff teams this year. It was far from perfect, but they held tough and won a close game. The defense made some mistakes, but Richardson is a tough quarterback to face with the way he can change a game in a heartbeat. Williams should be a slightly easier assignment, so I like Houston to win, but 6.5 is a lot to lay.
Houston is another team I like as a teaser candidate this week. I believe they win by somewhere in the 3-10-point region, so I would feel comfortable laying 0.5.
Prediction: Texans 27, Bears 20
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Texans
- Adam Beasley: Texans
- Dallas Robinson: Texans
- Jay Morrison: Texans
- Dakota Randall: Texans
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Falcons +260; Eagles -325
- Total: 47
Week 1 of the Kirk Cousins’ reign in Atlanta had some pretty big short-term red flags. The lack of movement that the team had their veteran QB take on as he recovers from an Achilles injury is a major worry and hurts the potential of this offense. Long term, I think they are fine and end up near .500, but this could be a tough assignment.
The Philadelphia Eagles were not pretty, but they were effective. In Saquon Barkley, they have the perfect foil to their passing game and Jalen Hurts’ running ability. This is going to be an offense that can score a lot of points and, at times, quickly.
The extra rest can only help the Eagles, and unless Atlanta’s offense makes serious strides this week, it is hard to see how this is anything other than a Philly win.
I am taking Philadelphia to cover because until I see more mobility out of Cousins, I have major issues with that offense. They have the pieces, but it could take some time for it to click if Cousins is less than 100%.
The under is in play here because I struggle to see Atlanta getting to 20 points. However, the Eagles could easily score 35+, which gives me some pause.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Falcons 17
Moneyline Picks
- Kyle Soppe: Eagles
- Adam Beasley: Falcons
- Dallas Robinson: Eagles
- Jay Morrison: Eagles
- Dakota Randall: Eagles
