When making your NFL picks for Week 2, avoid overreacting to everything you saw in Week 1.
While we learned a lot about all 32 teams in their season openers, there is often a lot of flukiness in Week 1, especially in today’s league with the shortened preseason.
With that being said, it’s time to dive into the NFL predictions for Week 2.
Which sides, totals, and player props should you be taking this week?
Breaking Down Latest NFL Week 2 Odds and Game Previews
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Sept. 15. The picks in this article were made throughout the week, so some may have been based on old lines and/or odds. If you are looking for advice on whether a bet should still be made based on current odds, you can message the relevant analyst on X.
@BrianBlewisPFN
@KyleSoppePFN
@DavidBearmanPFN
@JasonKatz13
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
- Moneyline: Raiders +310, Ravens -395
- Total: 41
I have no interest in backing the Las Vegas Raiders after Antonio Pierce’s very questionable in-game decision-making last week, and Lamar Jackson historically has underperformed as a betting favorite — 15-20 against the spread. Instead of picking either side or the total, I’m rolling with a player prop.
While Rashod Bateman only had two receptions last week, he hauled in 53 yards including one for a 38-yard gain.
Bateman also was on the field a ton in Week 1, playing in nearly 84% of the offensive snaps. It appears Bateman will be more of Baltimore’s primary deep threat this season (26.4 yards average depth of target), while the Ravens’ other pass catchers will be used in the short-to-immediate passing game.
While we’re working with a small sample size, Bateman’s aDOT was also at least six yards greater than that of all other Ravens players last season.
Considering how often Bateman was on the field and his big-play ability, I like our chances of him going over a low number here.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Raiders 16
Pick: Bateman over 25.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
- Moneyline: Saints +220, Cowboys -270
- Total: 47
Are the New Orleans Saints for real, or did they just beat up a really bad Carolina Panthers team? That remains to be seen. The Dallas Cowboys, however, reminded everyone in Week 1 that, despite their offseason drama, they remain a very formidable threat in the regular season.
The Saints came into this year with a very questionable offensive line. Yet in Week 1, only the Miami Dolphins were pressured on a lower percentage of their dropbacks, and they’re an anomaly because of their quick passing game.
The caveat here is that New Orleans went against a Panthers defense, so the jury is still out. This week, though, the team will be facing a Cowboys defense with a ferocious pass rush led by Micah Parsons.
Last season, Saints quarterback Derek Carr had his struggles under pressure — 20th in passer rating (64.4) and 22nd in estimated points added per dropback among starting quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.
On Sunday, I expect this Saints offense to revert back to reality a bit — and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense to continue their prowess at home from a year ago.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Saints 17
Pick: Cowboys -6 (-112 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Chargers -230, Panthers +190
- Total: 39
I gave out the Panthers last week (yikes) and until I see any improvement from Bryce Young and this offense, I will not be doing that again.
The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, are 1-0 to start the Jim Harbaugh era, as they leaned heavily on their ground attack. They produced the fifth-most rushing yards, eight-best EPA per rush, and second-highest average yards before contact in Week 1.
With Harbaugh, it seems very apparent that their offensive philosophy will be to establish the run and bleed the clock. Against a Panthers team that lost defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season, I can see the Bolts having similar success to last week.
Considering that and how inept the Panthers’ offense is, let’s take Carolina’s team total under.
Prediction: Chargers 21, Panthers 13
Pick: Panthers under 17.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
Bearman: Don’t click away. I need you to hear me out here. Week 2 is all about overreactions to Week 1 and finding the best value. Not one sane person on this planet wants their hard-earned money on the Carolina Panthers after what they watched last week. But I am here to tell you there is value.
This line opened at 3.5 a few months ago and was still 3.5 before the games were played on Sunday. Yes, the Panthers were awful, but were the Chargers good enough to move that line 2.5 points while flying West Coast to East Coast for a 10a start (1p in Carolina but 10a in body time in LA).
Yes, they won in Harbaugh’s debut, but they didn’t really do anything to impress me vs. a bad Raiders team. They were losing at half time and basically won the field possession game. Now, on top of that, teams in this spot, losing the week before by 35+ points and being an underdog of more than 4 points, have covered at nearly a 74 pct clip over the last 20 years. Hold on to your nose and close your eyes for this one. Take the points!
Pick: Panthers +6
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: 49ers -218, Vikings +180
- Total: 46
Despite a potential Super Bowl hangover looming, the San Francisco 49ers reminded us last week that they remain a juggernaut.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings took advantage of a terrible New York Giants team, as Sam Darnold was very effective in exploiting the G-Men’s secondary, posting the 11th-highest EPA per dropback of the week.
But how real was that performance from Darnold? We know that he has been a very inconsistent quarterback over his six-year career, to say the least, and a lot of his production last week came from when he had a clean pocket.
- When pressured: 55.6% completion percentage, 6.0 yards per attempt
- When not pressured: 93.3% completion percentage, 10.3 yards per attempt
Simply put, I’m not expecting Darnold to replicate the same magic against a 49ers defense that held Aaron Rodgers to the lowest pressured EPA per dropback among all starting QBs in Week 1.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Vikings 17
Pick: 49ers -5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers
- Moneyline: Colts -142, Packers +120
- Total: 40.5
I don’t have a great read on this game. The point spread has swung drastically from Green Bay Packers -4 before Jordan Love’s injury to Indianapolis Colts -2.5.
While that seems to be a major adjustment for a player of Love’s caliber (this seems more like Mahomes territory), Malik Willis does represent a major downgrade.
However, as talented as Anthony Richardson may be, he still looks incredibly raw, as only Young had a worse completion percentage.
Although the Colts’ offense can be very explosive, how sustainable is it to rely so heavily on big plays every week? Of their three non-garbage time touchdown drives last week, two came from 50+ yard pass plays, and the other started at the Houston Texans’ 5-yard line after a blocked punt.
If I had more confidence in Willis, I would bet the Packers here, but I’m passing on this game.
Prediction: Colts 17, Packers 15
Pick: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +295, Lions -375
- Total: 51
Of everything we saw last week, perhaps we should be most careful about overreacting to Baker Mayfield’s performance and this Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense.
While they definitely have the makings of being a very solid unit this season, they took advantage of a very poor Washington Commanders defense.
In this matchup, I’m expecting the Buccaneers to have little success on the ground against a very stout Detroit Lions run defense. It will force Tampa Bay to be very one-dimensional versus a much-improved secondary.
The Lions are also facing a Buccaneers defense decimated by injuries, and we saw on Sunday night that this unit can win in various ways.
I like the Lions to cover here, but I’m going to wait and see if the line drops back down a bit.
Prediction: Lions 34, Buccaneers 24
Pick: Lions -7.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Giants +100, Commanders -120
- Total: 43.5
You aren’t going to like this pick, but I feel compelled to take the Giants here.
If there’s any team this Giants offense can put up points against, it’s the Commanders, a team Daniel Jones has actually had a lot of success against in his career: 5-1-1 straight up, 6-1 ATS.
After Week 1, the only team people are more down on than the Giants are the Panthers, meaning there’s value to them after Jones’ horrific Week 1 performance.
If there’s any quarterback who can struggle against this Commanders unit, it would be Jones, but recent history tells us that’s unlikely.
I’m going to roll with Danny Dimes and Co. here.
Prediction: Giants 21, Commanders 20
Pick: Giants ML (+108 at FanDuel)
Bearman: In the last 5 matchups between these divisional foes, only one score has topped the current 44.5, and that was the last meeting last year in which a last-play pick-6 took the total from 43 to 50. All the previous four meetings were 40 or lower. And you can argue that both these offenses are the worst they have been in years.
Daniel Jones was awful last week and has been awful for a long time, throwing more TDs to the opponents than his own team since signing his $160M contract. The Giants managed 240 yards and 2 FGs in the opener last week at home. PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe gave him a D grade and ranked him 27th of 32 QBs in PFN’s new QB metric for last week’s performance.
As for the Commanders, they have a new QB in Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t bad in his debut, but he wasn’t great either. He scored twice on the ground after the game was out of hand, but the team only mustered 299 yards of total offense in a game they trailed throughout. I just don’t like either offense and that means the under.
Picks: Under 44.5
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Seahawks -170, Patriots +142
- Total: 38
I’m not buying the New England Patriots as a not-so-bad team just yet after their upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
For one, their offense didn’t inspire much confidence after scoring just 16 points and producing 290 yards against the Bengals’ 19th-ranked defense.
Secondly, while winning straight up as 8.5-point favorites is always an accomplishment, the Bengals historically struggle in Week 1, Burrow didn’t look 100%, and they were missing Tee Higgins.
Thirdly, this is probably a game they should have lost, as the Bengals were unlucky with turnovers and an overturned touchdown.
In this matchup, I anticipate the Patriots’ offense struggling mightily against Mike Macdonald’s Seattle Seahawks defense — even at home.
Although it came against Bo Nix in his first career start, the Seahawks’ defense had a dominant performance last week, finishing with the second-best marks in yards allowed per play (3.3) and success rate (71.0%).
Prediction: Seahawks 17, Patriots 13
Pick: Under 38.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
New York Jets (-4) at Tennessee Titans
- Moneyline: Jets -192, Titans +160
- Total: 41
Will Levis was so bad last week that the Tennessee Titans had a 17-0 lead and didn’t allow an offensive touchdown for the entire game, yet they still couldn’t cover as 4.5-point favorites.
After that performance, it’s really hard for me to trust Levis going against a New York Jets defense that should bounce back after getting embarrassed by the 49ers on Monday Night Football.
While this could be a breakout week for Rodgers and the Jets offense, it’s hard for me to get a read on this Titans defense. Were they that impressive last week, or was Caleb Williams that bad?
Because there are too many unknowns in this one, I won’t be giving out an official pick.
Prediction: Jets 21, Titans 17
Pick: Pass
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
- Moneyline: Browns +145, Jaguars -175
- Total: 41.5
Week 1 looked a lot like 2023 for the Jacksonville Jaguars — more self-inflicted mistakes.
While Trevor Lawrence didn’t have his best game, he was once again beaten by his teammates’ errors. Travis Etienne Jr.’s fumble near the end zone up 17-7 late in the third quarter was the biggest example.
For the Cleveland Browns, it’s really hard to trust this team as long as Deshaun Watson is under center, who graded out as the second-worst quarterback in Week 1.
Yet, I believe this line is a bit of an overcorrection in the Jaguars’ direction, as they were two-point favorites before Week 1. Now, you can get the Browns getting a field goal, though I would wait to see if this gets back up above the key number of 3.5.
Prediction: Jaguars 21, Browns 20
Pick: Browns +3 (-102 at DraftKings)
Bearman: One of these teams is leaving 0-2, and if you watched Week 1, you want no business being on the Browns side. Week 2 is all about not overreacting to what you saw the first week of the season, but it is hard to ignore just how bad the Browns and Deshaun Watson looked. And the vaunted Browns defense didn’t do much to stop the Cowboys either.
As for the Jags, they are 0-1, but not all 0-1s are created equal. Jacksonville had every chance to beat Miami in Miami and probably shoot have, if not for Trevor Etienne fumbling into the end zone en route to a 24-7 lead. I usually say lines move too much after Week 1. The lookahead line, posted in April at Westgate Super Book, was Jags -2.
It’s only moved one point. Based on what I saw with the naked eye, this one didn’t move enough.
Pick: Jaguars -3
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
- Moneyline: Rams -110, Cardinals -110
- Total: 48
With Puka Nacua sidelined for at least four weeks, I’m expecting Cooper Kupp to dominate the target share again like it’s 2021.
We got a glimpse of that on Sunday Night Football when Kupp was targeted 21 times — nearly twice as many as the next-most targeted player in Week 1. In the second half without Nacua, more than half of Matthew Stafford’s throws went Kupp’s way.
Even with a depleted offensive line, I’m expecting Stafford to have his way against the Arizona Cardinals’ 32-ranked defense, meaning Kupp should be the biggest beneficiary.
In Week 1, more than 78% of Kupp’s snaps came in the slot, and that percentage slightly jumped up to 82% without Nacua. This week, he’ll go against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the second-highest completion percentage on targets in the slot since Week 1 of last year.
It might be too obvious, but I’m riding with Kupp props in this one.
Prediction: Rams 24, Cardinals 21
Pick: Kupp over 7.5 receptions (-140 at DraftKings), Kupp 10+ receptions (+172 at FanDuel)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
- Moneyline: Bengals +220, Chiefs -270
- Total: 48
Considering the Kansas City Chiefs were 3.5-point favorites before last week and both starting quarterbacks will be active, this line is the biggest overreaction to Week 1.
It’s scary to back Joe Burrow and the Bengals after they laid an egg last week against the woeful Patriots and now have to face the defending Super Bowl champions.
However, this is a Chiefs team that the Bengals have played very well against in recent years, and perhaps last week they were looking ahead to this matchup.
Other factors, like Tee Higgins’ absence and the Chiefs’ extended rest, could scare you away from taking the Bengals.
But if your Week 2 process is to fade the overreactions, you have to take Cincinnati here.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bengals 21
Pick: Bengals +6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
- Moneyline: Steelers -155, Broncos +130
- Total: 36.5
Nix was terrible in his NFL debut, finishing the week as PFN’s third-worst quarterback in a road loss in Seattle.
The rookie quarterback particularly struggled when pressured, averaging just 1.33 yards per attempt on 15 passes, with zero touchdowns and one interception.
Now, he has to face a ferocious Pittsburgh Steelers defense led by T.J. Watt. The good news for Nix, however, is that he’ll be playing at home in this one, but is that enough of a factor for me to feel comfortable taking the first-year QB in this spot?
I’m honestly not sure. The Steelers were very fortunate to face an Atlanta Falcons team last week that was afraid to put Kirk Cousins on the move (96% of its snaps in pistol/shotgun, zero play-action passes). Plus, they had incredible turnover luck with a +3 margin and the highest net-turnover EPA of the week.
This line has continued to drop in the Steelers’ favor, but I don’t have enough confidence in Nix just yet or faith in Justin Fields as a road favorite.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Broncos 16
Pick: Pass
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Bears +220, Texans -270
- Total: 45.5
Williams can’t be any worse than he was last week, right? After finishing his NFL debut as PFN’s worst-ranked quarterback of the week, it can only go up from here for the No. 1 overall pick.
Instead, I’m going to sell high on the Chicago Bears’ defense. This is obviously a very talented group, but you can’t expect C.J. Stroud at home to make the same mistakes that Levis made last week.
Last season, while Stroud was very impressive regardless of where the game was being played, he was exceptional at home — 17 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 310.8 passing yards per game, 8.94 yards per attempt, and a 108.3 QB rating. He also had the second-highest EPA per dropback in Houston compared to the 14th-best on the road.
Instead of putting myself at risk for a potential backdoor cover on the spread, I’m going to stick with taking the Texans’ team total over.
Prediction: Texans 31, Bears 21
Pick: Texans over 26.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Falcons +220, Eagles -270
- Total: 46.5
Both of these offenses faced many questions entering Week 1, and they went in polar opposite directions.
In Brazil, the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense looked very explosive, putting up 34 points despite three turnovers, one of which came in the end zone. With Saquon Barkley and new OC Kellen Moore now in the mix, it appears the Eagles are officially back.
Just a few weeks ago, the Eagles were 3.5-point favorites, and going into Week 2, this line has already gone up one point. After the Falcons’ loss on Sunday, the point spread quickly went up another couple of points.
As impressive as the Eagles’ offense looked last week, plenty of questions still remain about their defense as they adjust to new DC Vic Fangio’s scheme.
Against the Packers, they particularly struggled against the run. Last week in run defense, they finished 30th in EPA and 32nd in average yards allowed before contact, after contact, and percentage of rushing plays for 12+ yards.
Optimistic Eagles fans would at least partially blame the field conditions for that, but I’m still a bit skeptical — and I’m worried about Bijan Robinson breaking at least one long run.
Prediction: Eagles 26, Falcons 21
Pick: Robinson longest rush over 15.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Player Prop Bets for Week 2 of the NFL Season
Jason Katz
Bet: Zach Ertz’s longest reception under 13.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM, 1u)
I like to go back to the well on certain props until sportsbooks adjust. Zach Ertz going under 13.5 for his longest reception last week was an easy call against a solid Bucs pass defense. It’s a big riskier against a very soft Giants defense that did allow a 22-yard reception to Vikings TE Josh Oliver last week.
With that said, we have to take value where it exists. This line should not be 13.5. And at most books, it isn’t.
Caesar’s does have it at 13.5, but the under is -120. DraftKings has it at 12.5 -115 and FanDuel is at 11.5. The MGM line is the best on the market for a player who will still need to get lucky to really do anything beyond a reception of around 10 yards.
Bet: Lamar Jackson under 30.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel, 1u)
Fair warning. I have not had good luck with pass attempt props. However, I cannot ignore the data on this one.
Lamar Jackson threw 41 passes last week in a game where the Ravens had to try and keep pace with the Chiefs. That is not the norm.
Last season, Jackson attempted more than 30 passes just six times all season. But that’s not the full story. In games the Ravens won by at least seven points, Jackson went over 30 pass attempts just twice. They won 11 games by 7+. The Ravens are nine-point home favorites over the Raiders.
Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s longest reception under 18.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM, 1u)
It’s always risky reading too much into Week 1. However, this is more looking at Week 1 and seeing the same things we saw for 18 weeks in 2023.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was supposed to play a larger role in the Seahawks’ offense this season. And he is. But the way he’s being used looks strikingly similar to how he was used as a rookie when he posted a 6.1 aDOT and 9.5 yards per reception.
JSN caught 63 passes as a rookie. A mere eight of them went for 19+ yards. In Week 1 of this season, it was the same usage for Smith-Njigba. He had a 3.0 aDOT and caught both of his targets for a total of 19 yards.
Additionally, the Patriots completely shut down the Bengals’ downfield passing attack. Joe Burrow completed a 28-yard pass to Ja’Marr Chase as his longest of the day. His next-longest completion was for 13 yards.
JSN is not Chase, and Geno Smith is not Burrow. Even if Smith-Njigba sees higher volume this week, he will likely need some serious yards after the catch work to go over this number.
Bet: Alexander Mattison under 25.5 rushing yards (-120 at FanDuel, 1u)
So much for Zamir White as the leadback. Head coach Antonio Pierce already said this would be a hot-hand situation. With Alexander Mattison as the primary passing down back, that should favor him, as he will have more opportunities to prove he is the hot hand.
The thing with Mattison is where he will likely succeed, if he does, is as a receiver. On the ground, I still don’t expect him to see many carries. He only saw five last week and managed a total of 19 yards.
Given the Raiders’ two-score underdog status, they may be forced to throw more than they want. While that will put Mattison on the field, he won’t be touching the ball via handoffs but rather via receptions.
The Ravens held Isiah Pacheco to 45 yards on 15 attempts in a game where the Chiefs had a positive game script throughout. The Raiders’ projected negative game script, combined with Mattison’s inefficiency against a good run defense, all points to a low rushing yardage game for the former Viking.
Bet: Miles Sanders under 35.5 rush + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
This is an area of prop betting I’ve attacked in the past, and I’m going after it this week. We have relatively low projected total yardage on backup running backs that I think will play less and perform worse than the lines suggest.
Miles Sanders certainly played more than expected last week, but I would hesitate to call this a timeshare just yet. Sanders’ first touch came at the very end of the first quarter. He handled a few in the second and then didn’t touch the ball again until the game was well out of hand in the fourth.
While no one expects the Panthers to defeat the Chargers, I do expect this game to be far more competitive than the 47-10 drubbing at the hands of the Saints last week.
Outside of a 31-yard touchdown reception by Alexander Mattison, the Chargers completely shut down the Raiders’ backs last week, both in the air and on the ground. I expect both Chuba Hubbard and Sanders to struggle this week.
Bet: Malik Willis under 169.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM, 1u)
Bet: Malik Willis under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+155 at BetMGM, 0.5u)
Perhaps Malik Willis, who has been with the Packers less than a month, is a revitalized player and makes me look really stupid for fading him. I’ve watched football for a very long time. I can count on one hand the quarterbacks I’ve seen who are worse than Willis. I have no idea how he is in the NFL, let alone on a roster.
Willis has thrown 67 career passes. His next passing touchdown will be his first.
Willis has made three career starts where he played 100% of the snaps. In all three games, the Titans implemented an extreme run-heavy game plan to avoid having him throw. His highest total passing yards in a single game is 99. For his career, Willis averages 5.2 yards per attempt.
Matt LaFleur is a very good head coach. We just saw the Colts defensive line get pummeled by the Texans offensive line and Joe Mixon. The game plan is going to be to feed Josh Jacobs.
Given that the Colts are only field goal favorites, this game is not expected to get out of hand. As long as the game is within reasonable reach, the Packers should continue to run the ball.
Finally, I think there’s a nonzero chance we see Sean Clifford enter this game at some point. I am probably going to regret not making the passing yardage under a 2-unit play.
Bet: Josh Oliver over 8.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
The Vikings are really hurting at pass-catcher. Already down T.J. Hockenson for most of the first half of the season, they will now be without WR Jordan Addison. This team is perilously thin behind superstar WR1 Justin Jefferson.
The WR2 and WR3 this week project to be some combination of Brandon Powell and Jalen Nailor. With no clear standout, I expect the Vikings to utilize the full extent of their pass-catching depth to try and create whatever mismatches they can.
This could lead to more two-tight end sets. At the very least, I think books are mispricing Johnny Mundt clearly being the preferred receiving tight end.
Mundt ran 16 routes to Oliver’s 10 last week. That is not a huge gap. Plus, it came in a game where the Vikings had a positive game script. That is unlikely to be the case against the elite 49ers offense.
In a more pass-heavy approach and without Addison, Oliver should run at least 15 routes. We only need one catch for nine yards to hit this over. Dating back to Week 15 of last season, Oliver has reached 14 receiving yards in five straight games. We only need nine.
Bet: Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+195 at DraftKings, 0.5u)
Let me get this straight. We’re getting +195 odds on the clear lead and goal-line back for one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league to score a touchdown…against a defense that just allowed Kenneth Walker III to run for 103 yards on 20 carries…and score a touchdown. Yeah, sign me up.
Najee Harris handled 20 carries for 70 yards last week, and with Jaylen Warren not fully healthy, the Steelers are leaning on him even more.
Last week, Pittsburgh had 40 rushes against just 23 Justin Fields pass attempts. To be fair, 14 of those rush attempts were Fields himself. But the fact remains, this team wants to run.
I suspect they won’t be shutout of the end zone a second consecutive week.
Bet: Zach Charbonnet under 59.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
Zach Charbonnet is a talented player. I fully expect the Seahawks to utilize him on the ground and through the air. He is a safe bet for 15+ touches. He may get 15 carries. But this is a large ask of him to get to 60 yards.
Last year, Charbonnet had a three-game stretch where he was the lead back, carrying the ball 15, 14, and 19 times. It took him 19 carries to get to 60 on the nose. In the other two games, he totaled 47 yards each time.
The Patriots are not as good as the Bengals made them look, but they’re not a bad defense. This unit led the NFL with 3.3 yards per carry allowed last season. In Week 1, Zack Moss did manage 44 yards on nine carries. However, 16 of those yards came on one attempt. Other than that, he averaged 3.5 ypc.
Charbonnet would need to get to 4.0 ypc and carry the ball 15 times to reach 60 yards. He is unlikely to reach either milestone.
Bet: Bucky Irving over 20.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel, 1u)
If I am getting suckered, I will gladly let it happen. This line doesn’t make any sense.
Last week, Bucky Irving was more than just a breather back. He had nine carries, which he turned into 62 yards.
Rachaad White is still the starter and Irving is not about to take that job. However, I do think it’s only a matter of time before Irving begins to out-carry White, while White continues to do what he does best, and excels in the passing game.
Irving is a vastly superior rusher to White, who remains one of, if not the worst pure runner in the NFL. In the same game, White turned 15 carries into 31 yards. If that inefficiency continues, and history suggests it will, White will carry the ball more.
I expect Irving to see 6-8 carries this week. The Bucs are definitely a pass-funnel defense, but he can top this number on three carries.
Bet: Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM, 1u)
In a deviation from the norm, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yardage line opened at 65.5 -120, but I did not want to pay that price. Waiting paid off as it moved a yard and 10 cents lower!
I was eyeing this one up from the moment I saw this matchup on the Week 2 schedule. Do many factors point to a big game from Pacheco.
First, the Bengals are in disarray at the moment. Ja’Marr Chase is still ramping up. Tee Higgins is hurt. Joe Burrow doesn’t look like himself. All of this leads to them being touchdown underdogs in Kansas City.
The projected positive game script should allow the Chiefs to lean on Pacheco. Last week, they gave him 15 carries, but he only turned them into 45 yards against a tough Ravens defensive front. It should be a whole lot easier this week.
The Bengals really struggled against the run last season, allowing 4.7 yards per carry, tied for second-most in the league. They also allowed 17 runs of 15+ yards, tied for third-most in the league. Pacheco carried the ball 18 times for 130 yards when these teams met in 2023.
Last week, this run defense did not look to be improved in 2024. The Bengals surrendered 120 yards on 25 carries to Rhamondre Stevenson.
All of this points to Pacheco stomping his way to a big game. If you’re feeling frisky, you can even sprinkle on Pacheco 100+ rushing yards at +400 on DraftKings.
Pick Stefon Diggs under 57.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM, 1u)
Last week, we got a gift with Stefon Diggs’ receiving yards line set at 60.5. The books are adjusting after his six-catch, 33-yard outing…but they haven’t adjusted enough.
Diggs is going to be useful for the Texans’ offense. He can still win underneath and looks to be the primary aerial read near the goal line. That’s perfectly fine, he can rack up all the receptions he wants underneath.
Diggs’ longest reception last week was 10 yards. Meanwhile, the Bears held Will Levis to a longest completion of 15 yards, and the Titans’ leading receiver, Calvin Ridley, was held to 50 yards.
Obviously, C.J. Stroud and the Texans are a far more imposing offense. They also have two other excellent receiving weapons and a top running back. If Diggs is involved significantly once again, I’m expecting a similar game to last week where he has something like 5-7 receptions for 30-50 yards.
Kyle Soppe
Pick: Jonathan Taylor over 79.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Pick: Jonathan Taylor 100+ rushing yards (+215 at DraftKings)
Pick: Jonathan Taylor anytime TD (+105 at DraftKings)
Anthony Richardson took our collective breath away last week with some of the viral highlights, and that is going to happen again at some point this season because he is that physically gifted. That said, the week after a performance like that could prove to be the time to invest heavily in Jonathan Taylor as the public flocks to the dynamic quarterback (and thus away from the traditional ground game).
Taylor posted the second-highest snap share of his career last week (95.3%), and that was in a game where this team entered the game feeling the pressure of keeping up with the high-powered Texans. With Jordan Love out, I think it’s fair to label the Packers as “non-high powered”, leading me to believe that the offensive game plan on Sunday will look considerably more conservative than it was in the season opener.
At the most basic of levels, Taylor has cleared 20 touches in each of his past five games where the closing over/under fell below 43 points, a near certainty for this game barring an unexpected return to action for Love … or Brett favre. The plan is for Malik Willis to start this game and that essentially locks in a low total, which, according to history, puts plenty of food on the plate of Taylor.
For his career, JT has 16 games with at least 20 touches as a favorite, and he has cleared 80 rushing yards in 13 of them (81.3%). But wait, there’s more. So much more.
Since Week 6 of last season, Green Bay has allowed the third most yards per carry after contact to opposing running backs (12.8% more than the average NFL defense over that stretch) and that makes this a true green light special. For his career, Taylor averages 129.9 rushing yards per game and rushes for at least one touchdown in 80% of games when getting 15+ carries and recording, by his standards, an above-average mark after contact.
I don’t expect there to be many “buy low” windows for Taylor props this season, and while his numbers aren’t cheap this week, they are lower than I would have had projected prior to the Week 1 loss. There isn’t a Week 2 world in which I won’t be exposed to Indy’s bellcow – DFS, props, and anything else I can find to bet on!
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown with more receiving yards than Mike Evans (-150 at DraftKings)
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Mike Evans to clear 150 receiving yards total (-115 at DraftKings)
Taylor is my single favorite player on the board this week to back, though he’s not the only star I like to rebound from a less than ideal Week 1 and pay off optimistic bettors in a major way.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was handcuffed by the Rams on Sunday Night Football and Jameson Williams took over. Having a reliable shorter yardage option like St. Brown in the mix helped draw attention off of Detroit’s burner and Jared Goff took advantage.
Of course, that impact can go both ways – the increased attention to Williams will help give St. Brown more room to operate underneath. I expect that role to very much be featured in this spot against a Bucs rush defense that, since Week 5, ranks fourth in EPA against running backs.
Over that same stretch, Tampa Bay’s vulnerable secondary (one that is very banged up at the moment) ranks among the five worst in the league in Passer Rating, yards per attempt, and … slot YAC.
Week 1, percentage of snaps in the slot
- St. Brown: 46.7%
- Kalif Raymond: 27%
- Williams: 25%
This is a sport of picking scabs, and given what Tampa Bay has put on film, it’s possible to see Detroit attack them in a similar fashion to how Ls Angeles used Cooper Kupp against them last weekend.
St. Brown averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game last season, also known as 189.4 yards every two games. I’m not saying he will be back on that pace for this season after Sunday, but I’m not saying he won’t (Week 1: 13 yards).
As for the other side of this game, Mike Evans should be able to produce, though my expectations aren’t as high for him as St. Brown. The sheer volume is rarely overwhelming for the future Hall of Famer (6.5 targets per game over his past six regular-season contests), and given the efficiency from Detroit’s ace (73.1% career catch rate), that makes keeping pace a tall order.
That’s not to say, however, that he will be contained. The Lions own the fourth-highest opponent average depth of throw against since the beginning of last season, giving at least one big play a feeling of inevitability. I’m layering my betting card in such a way that if I connect on one, I’m fine, and hitting both is very much in play.
For what it’s worth, St. Brown to lead the Sunday slate in receptions/receiving yards markets have yet to be released – you better believe I’ll be swimming around those numbers.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco under 2.5 receptions (+110 at DraftKings)
The late window is quite light this week, but that doesn’t mean we are without a lean. Patrick Mahomes has seen his aDOT decline on a consistent basis, but the Chiefs did all they could this offseason to reverse that trend, and Xavier Worthy certainly looked the part as an end to that mean.
We got a glimpse of that potential last Thursday night, and we might get it on full display in this spot against the defense that was attacked downfield with regularity last season (second-highest opponent, aDOT). Cincy is unlikely to move Mahomes off his spot with a below-average blitz rate, and that means one of two things—calculated shots down the field or an extended opportunity for the Rashee Rice/Travis Kelce tandem to get open.
Neither of those outcomes project well for Isiah Pacheco’s outlook in the passing game, a role that is at risk of slowly diminishing as Samaje Perine gets worked up to speed (Pacheco held a 22-8 edge in routes last week, 3-2 in targets). Also factoring into the math here is that Pacheco might just dominate in a traditional way – the Bengals rank 26th in defensive rush EPA against RBs since the beginning of last season.
He’s a great fantasy football option and a versatile back capable of handling any role Andy Reid throws at him. I’m just not sure that’ll be needed in this spot. In essence, I’m treating Pacheco’s target share like Mahomes’ rushing share — it’s there in high-leverage spots but not a focal point until a specific situation calls for it.