The Vikings' win over the Packers in Week 17 sets up a Week 18 battle between Detroit and Minnesota for the top seed in the conference and the NFC North title.
A loss to the Vikings in Week 18 would almost certainly drop the Lions to the No. 5 seed in the NFC after sitting atop the standings all season.
PFN's Playoff Predictor is a big fan of the Lions, ranking Detroit as the second-best offense and fourth-best defense while giving them a 24.5% chance to win the Super Bowl -- double the odds of the next-highest team. The Lions will try to improve to 14-2 by defeating the 49ers on Monday Night Football.
This was on display in Week 17 when they blew out the Texans 31-2 on Christmas Day. PFN's model is very high on Baltimore, giving them the second-best chance to win the Super Bowl (12.7%) and ranking their offense No. 1 in the league.
This was on display in Week 17 when they blew out the Texans 31-2 on Christmas Day. PFN's model is very high on Baltimore, giving them the second-best chance to win the Super Bowl (12.7%) and ranking their offense No. 1 in the league.
The one-two punch of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is going to be terrifying in the postseason, and Jackson may be on the verge of winning his third MVP award.
Entering the season, sportsbooks had the Vikings' over/under set at 6.5 wins. Now, after their impressive victory over the Packers in Week 17, they have won 14 games and kept their dream of securing the NFC's No. 1 seed alive.
Minnesota is the biggest surprise of the 2024 season, and Sam Darnold looks poised for a lucrative payday this offseason.
The big question is whether it'll be with Minnesota (who just drafted J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) or another team.
While the Eagles' 10-game winning streak came to an end last week against the division-rival Commanders after Jalen Hurts exited the game with a concussion, Philly got back on track in Week 17. Even with Hurts sidelined, the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys 41-7.
DeVonta Smith caught six passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns, A.J. Brown caught a touchdown, and Saquon Barkley rushed for 167 yards -- passing 2,000 on the season.
Now, in Week 18 against the Giants, Barkley needs just 101 yards against his former team to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record.
The Bills have an impressive resume, with quality wins over the Lions and Chiefs among others. It remains to be seen if Buffalo can make a deep postseason run despite their mediocre defense and special teams.
Buffalo has the fourth-best offense in PFN's Offense+ metric, and Josh Allen is capable of single-handedly lifting the Bills to victory at times. That was the case in Week 17 when he totaled three touchdowns (two passing and one rushing).
The Bills have an impressive resume, with quality wins over the Lions and Chiefs among others. It remains to be seen if Buffalo can make a deep postseason run despite their mediocre defense and special teams.
Another week, another Chiefs win. Patrick Mahomes completed 29 of 38 passes for 320 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
While Mahomes' ankle injury initially seemed like it might impact his play and affect Kansas City's pursuit of the AFC's No. 1 seed, it did no such thing. He's since had two of his best games of the season and the Chiefs locked up the top spot in the conference with a convincing win over the Steelers on Christmas Day.
So, why are the 15-1 back-to-back defending champions sitting at No. 6 in these rankings? Well, despite having the NFL's best record, PFN's model isn't particularly high on the Chiefs due to their weak schedule and mediocre peripherals.
The Packers have had the NFL's hardest schedule to this point, yet they are still 11-5. It's worth noting that Green Bay's only losses have come against other teams ranked inside the top five: against the Eagles in Week 1, the Vikings in Weeks 4 and 17, and the Lions in Weeks 9 and 14. Also, two of those losses came with Jordan Love hobbled by injuries.
That's the downside of playing in the NFL's toughest division. While they are in third place in the NFC North, the Packers are a legitimate contender who will likely be a tough out in the postseason.
The Buccaneers' offense was clicking on all cylinders in Week 17, defeating the Panthers 48-14. Baker Mayfield completed 27 of 32 passes for 359 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions, while Mike Evans recorded eight receptions for 97 yards and two touchdowns and Bucky Irving had 20 carries for 113 yards.
Since the Bucs beat the Panthers and the Falcons lost to the Commanders on Sunday Night Football, Week 17 played out perfectly for Tampa Bay. Now, the Buccaneers once again control their destiny. With a win over the Saints in Week 18, Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South. It could also remain in contention for the No. 3 seed.
While this may seem high for the Buccaneers, PFN's model loves their third-ranked offense and the fact that they have quality wins over the Lions, Eagles, Commanders, and Chargers.
Entering Week 16, the Commanders had zero wins against teams with a winning record this season, as they were 0-4 when facing teams at or above .500. Now, after back-to-back wins over the Eagles and Falcons, Washington clinched a playoff spot.
Washington clinched its postseason berth dramatically, as Jayden Daniels marched the offense down the field in overtime on Sunday Night Football and threw a touchdown pass to Zach Ertz to punch the ticket.
Daniels has thrived in clutch situations this season, and he looks like the real deal for Washington.
The Rams have come a long way since dropping four of their first five games.
With their Week 17 victory over the Cardinals, Los Angeles has now won nine of its last 11 contests. Also, it clinched the NFC West on Sunday night with the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle.
The Rams have played the third-hardest schedule in the NFL to this point, yet they have wins over the Bills, Vikings, Seahawks, and 49ers (two), among others.
A few weeks ago, we mentioned that the Steelers' remaining schedule is brutal and that we'd learn a lot about this squad down the stretch, with games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals (who gave them a tough matchup in Week 13). Pittsburgh had benefitted from playing the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL, but it has now faced multiple contenders in a row.
Well, that tough stretch has led to back-to-back-to-back losses against Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City. Fortunately for the Steelers, they have already clinched a playoff spot. However, this team is looking significantly less scary entering the postseason than it did several weeks ago.
Los Angeles blew out the Patriots 40-7 in Week 17, clinching a playoff spot. However, it is hard to know what to make of this Chargers team. Los Angeles is a well-coached team with a terrific defense, but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
However, it is hard to know what to make of this Chargers team. Los Angeles is a well-coached team with a terrific defense, but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
Fun fact: the Chargers are just 2-4 against teams above .500 (with both wins coming against the Broncos in Weeks 6 and 16). It will be interesting to see how Los Angeles fares in the postseason.
Denver had a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a win against the Bengals on Saturday, but Cincinnati won 30-24.
Bo Nix -- the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft -- continues to impress, throwing for 219 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in Week 17 while also rushing for 31 yards. Now, Nix and the Broncos will need to defeat the Chiefs in Week 18 in a matchup that should be significantly easier since Kansas City will likely be resting starters.
While Denver has to feel good about having its quarterback of the future, it's the Broncos' terrific defense that makes this team so tough. They are currently the No. 1-ranked defense in PFN's Defense+ metric.
The Seahawks got an ugly 6-3 win over the Bears on Thursday Night Football, but they will be watching the playoffs from home.
Even if they defeat the Rams in Week 18, Seattle has been eliminated from the playoffs because Los Angeles holds the strength-of-victory tiebreaker to clinch the division and the Seahawks can't earn an NFC Wild Card spot.
Seattle has played the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL, and the majority of their losses were against quality teams like the Lions, Vikings, Packers, and 49ers. However, the Seahawks certainly regret their Week 5 loss to the struggling Giants.
With the Cardinals' loss to the Rams in Week 17, they dropped to 7-9 in what has been a forgettable season for Arizona.
However, it's worth noting that their schedule hasn't done them any favors this season, as they have played the second-hardest slate of any team in the NFL to this point.
This includes games against the Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bills, Commanders, and Chargers, plus their division foes (the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers).
After last year's trip to the Super Bowl, the 49ers have lost numerous key players to injuries throughout this season. From Christian McCaffrey to Brandon Aiyuk to Jordan Mason to Javon Hargrave to Nick Bosa to Trent Williams, San Francisco has had star-studded injury reports for much of the year.
The 49ers will have a big decision to make this offseason, as Brock Purdy will be seeking a massive payday that makes him one of the NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks. They will try to improve to 7-9 with an upset win over the Lions on Monday Night Football.
The Texans suffered a 31-2 loss to the Ravens on Christmas Day. Fortunately for Houston, it has already clinched the AFC South, so it doesn't have to worry about missing the playoffs.
Still, this team was already looking shaky entering the postseason, as its record feels like a product of a fairly easy schedule to this point.
Now, with C.J. Stroud struggling, plus Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs sidelined, the Texans aren't striking much fear into the hearts of their opponents these days.
Cincinnati has now won four straight games to keep their postseason hopes alive. However, the Bengals dug themselves a pretty deep hole by losing four of their first five games this season, so they still need help to get into the playoffs. The only way Cincinnati gets in is by winning in Week 18, plus Denver and Miami losing next week.
Cincinnati has now won four straight games to keep their postseason hopes alive. However, the Bengals dug themselves a pretty deep hole by losing four of their first five games this season, so they still need help to get into the playoffs. The only way Cincinnati gets in is by winning in Week 18, plus Denver and Miami losing next week.
PFN's Playoff Predictor gives the Bengals an 8.1% chance of making the postseason.
After a Sunday Night Football loss to the Commanders in Week 17, Atlanta no longer controls its destiny. The only way the Falcons can make the playoffs is if they defeat the Panthers next week and the Buccaneers lose to the Saints.
PFN's metrics have been low on the Falcons for much of the season, predicting that the Bucs would ultimately come from behind to win the division thanks to their dominant offense, quality wins, and easy schedule down the stretch.
Unfortunately for the Falcons, their only path to the playoffs is by winning the division title, as they can no longer earn a Wild Card spot.
The Dolphins survived in Week 17, defeating the Browns in Cleveland without Tua Tagovailoa. Miami has to win its final game and get to 9-8 to have any shot at playing more football, but it also needs Denver to lose in Week 18. The good news is if the Dolphins and Broncos are both 9-8, Miami will win the conference record tiebreaker. Also, it doesn't have to worry about the Bengals, as it has the tiebreaker advantage. Miami also got a break this week with the Colts' shocking loss to the Giants, eliminating Indianapolis from the playoffs.
The good news is if the Dolphins and Broncos are both 9-8, Miami will win the conference record tiebreaker. Also, it doesn't have to worry about the Bengals, as it has the tiebreaker advantage. Miami also got a break this week with the Colts' shocking loss to the Giants, eliminating Indianapolis from the playoffs.
PFN's Playoff Predictor gives the Dolphins an 11.2% chance of making the postseason.
In Week 6, the Bears blew out the Jaguars in London and were entering their bye week with a 4-2 record. They had just won back-to-back games, and they were feeling good.
However, Chicago hasn't won a game since, and it cost head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron their jobs. With their 6-3 loss to the Seahawks in Week 17, the Bears have now dropped 10 consecutive games. This was a very difficult stretch for Chicago, as it included games against the Lions (two), Vikings (two), Packers, Commanders, Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals. However, they also lost convincingly against the Patriots in Week 10.
While this season hasn't gone as planned for Chicago, No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams has had flashes of brilliance throughout his rookie campaign, and the hope is that Williams and Co. can put things together during his sophomore season.
With their season on the line, the Colts shockingly lost to the two-win Giants 45-33, eliminating themselves from the postseason.
Anthony Richardson missed the game due to back and foot injuries, and Joe Flacco turned the ball over three times (two interceptions and a lost fumble).
Indianapolis' defense was terrible, allowing Drew Lock to complete 17 of 23 passes for 309 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions (including 171 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Malik Nabers).
PFN's model was never high on the Colts throughout this season, as the metrics didn't support Indianapolis making the playoffs even though it had the NFL's easiest schedule down the stretch.
Entering Week 17, the Cowboys had won four of their last five games, including quality victories over the Buccaneers and Commanders. However, Dallas came back down to Earth this week, getting blown out by the Eagles 41-7.
The Cowboys were officially eliminated from the playoffs in Week 16. However, their success down the stretch may allow head coach Mike McCarthy to keep his job. On Sunday, Dak Prescott advocated for McCarthy to keep his job.
If the season ended today, Dallas would pick No. 13 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
From acquiring four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, three-time All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, and All-Pro pass rusher Haason Reddick to parting ways with head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas midseason, the Jets have made aggressive moves in hopes of making the playoffs and turning around this franchise.
However, New York has missed the playoffs for the 14th straight season. Considering the Jets entered the campaign with Super Bowl aspirations, this year has been a huge disappointment. Remember, this was a team that won seven games last year despite starting Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle at quarterback.
This will be an interesting offseason for the Jets, as it seems likely that Rodgers' and Adams' days with the team are numbered, and Garrett Wilson might request a trade.
Another week, another surprising Raiders win. With their 25-10 victory over the depleted Saints, Las Vegas has won consecutive contests for the first time this season. Aidan O'Connell threw for 242 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions, while Ameer Abdullah ran for 115 yards (while adding 32 yards through the air).
But just like last week's victory, this win significantly hurts Las Vegas' 2025 NFL Draft pick. Entering Week 16, the Raiders had the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Now, after back-to-back wins, they hold the No. 8 pick.
Now, Las Vegas has just a 4.0% chance of landing the top overall pick in the draft, so many Raiders fans are understandably frustrated with these too-little, too-late victories.
In another matchup that could impact the race for the No. 1 overall pick, the Jaguars defeated the Titans, 20-13.
Brian Thomas Jr. caught seven passes for 91 yards and a touchdown and helped Jacksonville win its fourth game of the season. Give the Jaguars credit: they are still fighting. It remains to be seen if head coach Doug Pederson will keep his job.
After this victory, Jacksonville currently holds the No. 5 overall pick and it has just a 7.3% chance of landing the No. 1 selection.
Carolina has looked like a much better team in the second half of the 2024 NFL season, but that wasn't the case in Week 17 when Tampa Bay defeated it 48-14.
Before the game, Chuba Hubbard was placed on injured reserve, so the Panthers were missing their top three running backs (Hubbard, Jonathon Brooks, and Miles Sanders), plus key pieces like Jaycee Horn, Josey Jewell, Derrick Brown, among others.
If the season ended today, the Panthers would have the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They currently have a 4.1% chance of landing the No. 1 selection.
After a surprising stretch during which they won three of four games over the Falcons, Browns, and Giants, New Orleans has now lost three straight games. In Week 17, the depleted Saints lost to the Raiders, 25-10.
It should be noted that the Saints are playing without QB Derek Carr, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave, WR Rashid Shaheed, and TE Taysom Hill, so expectations weren't exactly high for this group.
New Orleans has officially been eliminated from the playoffs but will have a chance to play spoiler by defeating the rival Buccaneers in Week 18. If the season ended today, the Saints would have the No. 10 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
After Jameis Winston had a trio of three-interception games (and 12 picks total), the Browns decided to bench him for Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, Thompson-Robinson has been even worse than Winston, struggling in back-to-back starts against Cincinnati and Miami. This season, DTR has completed just 59 of 115 passes (51.3%) for 427 yards, zero touchdowns, and six interceptions while rushing for 119 yards and zero scores.
After losing five straight games, Cleveland currently holds the No. 3 overall pick and has a 22.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick.
The Titans have now lost five straight games (and 10 of their last 12). Tennessee made a quarterback change from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph before Week 16, but struggles under center have continued.
The Titans' Week 17 loss might be their worst of the season, as the Jaguars defeated them 20-13. However, this loss is great news for Tennessee's 2025 NFL Draft pick.
If the season ended today, the Titans would have the No. 2 pick -- with a 23.5% chance of picking No. 1 overall. With this loss, perhaps the Titans will have a chance to land their quarterback of the future early in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Giants played their best game of the season in Week 17, defeating the Colts 45-33. Drew Lock threw for 309 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions, with Malik Nabers going off for seven receptions, 171 yards, and two touchdowns.
However, Giants fans were upset, as this win may cost New York the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. With this win, New York drops to the No. 4 pick, and now the Patriots are the favorites to land the top selection. The Giants went from heavy favorites to land the No. 1 pick to having the fourth-best odds (21.0%).
Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are two bright spots in New York's offense, becoming the first rookie teammates to surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage in the same season since 1970.
It remains to be seen if the Giants will part ways with head coach Brian Daboll. Perhaps this win and how well he has developed the young core will allow him to keep his job. If New York fires him, he is expected to have several suitors.
On Saturday, the Patriots dropped their sixth straight game, getting blown out by the Chargers. Many fans in New England are fed up with first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, calling for him to be fired and replaced by former Patriots great Mike Vrabel.
While this has been a tough season for New England, the fact that they have seemingly found their quarterback of the future makes it easier to stomach.
Also, the Giants' win over the Colts in Week 17 may allow the Patriots to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. If the season ended today, New England would pick first, and the Patriots now have a 25.7% chance of landing the top selection.
