Week 18 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 17 weeks of data, could Week 18 be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Week 18 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 18 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Lamar Jackson longest completion under 35.5 yards
- Chargers with Bengals moneyline parlay
- Caleb Williams over 199.5 passing yards
- Lions to win the NFC
David Bearman’s Picks
- Buccaneers -13.5
- Dolphins -1
- Chiefs/Broncos under 39.5
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Michael Penix Jr. under 222.5 passing yards
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Soppe: Open your sportsbooks, and it’s possible that this spread has risen since the last time you checked. The Baltimore Ravens will win the AFC North with a victory, so I understand the optimism, but this number has gotten to a point where the home team could absolutely dominate and not cover — or they could win by 35.
I’m not touching this number, but I am using it as a crutch. Forget how much you think Baltimore wins by, them controlling this game feels almost inevitable. Now let’s get into the weeds.
This season, teams leading have an average depth of throw that is 6.3% lower than trailing teams, and that tracks as there is less motivation to take on the risk that comes with stretching the field. The aDOT of teams in these spots has been trending down for a while now and is a decent bet to occur in this game.
NFL Average Depth of Throw When Leading by Season:
- 2019: 8.2 yards
- 2020: 8.0 yards
- 2021: 8.0 yards
- 2022: 7.6 yards
- 2023: 7.6 yards
- 2024: 7.5 yards
Why does that matter? Big plays against Cleveland, through the air, come largely on bombs. On pass plays gaining 30+ yards this season, the Cleveland Browns have the sixth-highest opponent aDOT (14.2% higher than the league average).
If you like Baltimore to dictate tempo, we are looking at a potentially conservative passing attack. This prop line stands where it is because Jackson has hit on a 40+ yard pass in eight straight games and the motivation is on Baltimore’s side.
But doesn’t that motivation point toward a positive game script for the fourth-highest rush-rate-over-expectation team in the NFL? Jackson threw 38 passes in the first meeting against Cleveland and didn’t have a 30-yard completion — I’d bet that the doesn’t near that pass total this week; if the Ravens are operating with a big lead, there’s no need for Todd Monken to scheme up downfield looks.
Pick: Lamar Jackson longest completion under 35.5 yards
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Soppe: If the Ravens win to kick off this week, they take the AFC North; that relegates the Steelers to the Wild Card. That result may not be handy by the time Pittsburgh kicks off, and while I think the Steelers play to win this week regardless of that result, they are at least at some risk of snap management while they are facing a team with an even greater level of desperation
Back in Week 13, Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati, but are we sold that what they did that day is the least bit sustainable?
Yes, the Bengals’ defense is a weakness, but the Steelers averaged 10.3 yards per pass (nine players had an 18+ yard reception), racked up 520 yards of offense, and were +2 in the turnover battle — they won by six points.
That victory is one of two Pittsburgh has this season when allowing 1.65+ points per possession. As you might assume, that’s a low bar for this explosive Bengals offense to hit.
- Cincinnati points per drive this season: 2.53
- Cincinnati points per drive since Week 9: 2.71
If the Bengals win, something they are favored to do, we get the Chargers in a win-and-get-the-Texans spot, easily the most advantageous Wild Card spot to have (the Nos. 6-7 seeds will travel to Baltimore and Buffalo, respectively, in this scenario).
That’s a high level of motivation to take into a game against a team whose average loss this season has come by 11.5 points (the Chargers beat them in the first game of the Jim Harbaugh era, a contest in which no Bolt had 40 receiving yards).
The Chargers are a much better team today than they were back in September while the case could certainly be made that the Raiders (Gardner Minshew II was under center and Davante Adams was his WR1 for the first meeting) are a lesser version of themselves.
Los Angeles has one win this season by fewer than seven points, and I think this ticket has a chance to gain enough value before kickoff for me to invest with confidence.
Pick: Chargers + Bengals moneyline parlay (+169)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Soppe: The Week 18 betting card is going to require some creativity, and I think this is as good of a spot as any to leverage that.
Green Bay is locked into the Wild Card and can’t win the NFC North, but they have plenty to play for in this final week of the regular season. They are fighting with Washington (also a 1:00 p.m. kickoff) for the right to avoid Philadelphia in the first round, needing to pick up a game to earn the NFC’s sixth seed.
The Green Bay Packers won the first meeting with the Chicago Bears by a single point, escaping from the Windy City despite allowing the home team to run for 179 yards and two scores on 34 carries. Their defense struggled throughout and, in what I’m viewing as a need-to-win spot, I expect them to potentially overcorrect in this spot.
Enter Williams and the development project.
Bears’ One-Score Pass Rates, 2024:
- Weeks 1-11: 57.2% (league average: 58.2%)
- Weeks 12-17: 68% (league average: 59.4%)
This is the rare spot where we are all rooting for the same thing. Green Bay wants to force Williams to beat them, Chicago wants to get their rookie QB as many reps as possible, and we are holding a ticket to benefit from it all.
Since 2020, seven rookie quarterbacks have started in the final regular season game for a team that did not make the playoffs and thrown over 20 passes — in essence, I’m labeling these as developmental spots.
- Tua Tagovailoa (2020): 361 pass yards (rest of season: 161.4)
- Justin Herbert (2020): 302 passing yards (rest of season: 288.1)
- Davis Mills (2021): 301 passing yards (rest of season: 196.0)
- Aidan O’Connell (2023): 244 passing yards (rest of season: 197.4)
- Desmond Ridder (2022): 224 passing yards (rest of season: 161.3)
- Trevor Lawrence (2021): 223 passing yards (rest of season: 213.6)
- Kenny Pickett (2022): 195 passing yards (rest of season: 184.1)
As you can see, all of these QBs cleared their season average from before the finale, and all but one cleared what Williams’ listed line is. Through 17 weeks this season, the USC product is averaging 212.1 passing yards per game, putting him in a spot where he only needs to hit 95% of his season average to cash this ticket.
Pickett was the only QB to check in, be it just barely, under Williams’ prop line, but Pittsburgh dominated that game and finished with eight more team rushes than passes.
Yeah, I don’t think we have a chance at that being the case (10-point underdog). It doesn’t have to be pretty, and strong volume could get us there, but by hook or by crook, Williams projects well when you consider all of the moving pieces for this tough-to-nail-down week.
Pick: Caleb Williams over 199.5 passing yards
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bearman: One team has its entire season in its hands and the other checked out weeks ago. I am not one that ever lays this many points in an NFL game, but in case you haven’t noticed, the “haves” have been crushing the “have-nots” this season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a win-and-in situation, claiming the NFC South crown with a win over the lowly New Orleans Saints. This Bucs team is one of the hottest in football, winning five of six since its Week 11 bye and averaging 32.7 points per game. The Bucs’ lone loss was a two-point loss to the Cowboys in prime time, a game they could’ve won 100 times.
The Saints’ season is long over, losers of four of five and scoring no more than two TDs in any of them. In fact, they’ve scored 10 combined points in the last three weeks. I am tempted to play the Saints team total of under 14.5 and still might, but in an expected blowout, you never know what happens in the fourth quarter when the backups are in.
I don’t think this one will be close, so I will lay the -13.5 and maybe sprinkle some on the u14.5 team total as the Saints have hit 15+ once since November.
Pick: Buccaneers -13.5
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Bearman: The Miami Dolphins need some help from the Chiefs to make the postseason, but they also need to take care of business vs the New York Jets first. Any seasoned Dolphins fan would probably want to avoid the “adding insult to injury” scenario of the Dolphins playoff hopes dying in East Rutherford, N.J., but this is not your normal Jets team playing spoiler.
This team checked out a long time ago and is basically the NFL’s version of a running soap opera. They’ve won twice since mid-September, no one likes the QB, they don’t have a coach or GM, and the bags have been packed.
Meanwhile, Miami, while scoreboard-watching, can’t afford to lose. They’ve won eight of their last nine against the Jets, including a 30-0 laugher last season in New Jersey on Black Friday.
Mike McDaniel may not have a playoff win yet, but he does have many wins against the Patriots and Jets. Miami is 6-2 since its bad 2-6 start and is looking for its fourth consecutive winning season. It may not end in the postseason depending on what happens in Denver, but winning seven of the last nine and sweeping the Jets is the consolation prize out there.
Pick: Dolphins -1
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Bearman: I am going to equate this one to a soccer match where both teams know they are moving on if they just survive the 0-0 draw. They park the bus and kick the ball around. In this one, the Kansas City Chiefs have zero to play for and likely won’t play anyone. The Denver Broncos punch their ticket by scoring one more point than the Chiefs team that won’t care.
While the Broncos’ defense has been leaky of late, allowing 64 points to Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, they are facing Carson Wentz and who knows who else this week. Last year, with the No. 3 seed locked up, K.C. went with Blaine Gabbert and scored 13 against the Chargers with seven coming on a scoop-and-score. The offense scored two FGs with 268 yards of total offense. I expect the same this year.
Pick: Chiefs/Broncos under 39.5
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Soppe: I’ve had the Detroit Lions power ranked as the best team in the league for months now, and while the defensive injuries worry me, I trust this offense too much to pivot now.
I’ll be invested in the Lions (-2.5) this week, but I want to get ahead of the market; if that bet cashes, their odds of winning the NFC are going to come down (they are currently 45 cents cheaper to win the conference than the Chiefs are in the AFC). I think that’s right — this is a very different team when they are at home.
Home/Road Splits Since 2023
- Points per drive: 3.02 (road: 2.43)
- Red zone efficiency: 71.2% (road: 60%)
- Offensive EPA per game: +9.21 (road: +4.32)
I have 1.5 units on the Lions to cover this week and one unit on them to win the NFC. It’s a low exposure week due to the weird motivation factors at play, so I’m comfortable making a parlay of sorts — if Detroit claims the top seed, I think I’m looking at significant closing-line value in the futures market, and that is the outcome I am banking on.
Pick: Lions to win the NFC (+200)
THE TRICKY @LIONS! JAMO TOUCHDOWN OFF THE LATERAL!
📺: #DETvsSF on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/bfns6bNZf4— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2024