As we look ahead to Week 18 of the season, where do each of the 32 teams stand in our 2024 NFL offense rankings?
PFN’s offense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
Each team will be given a numerical score that we convert to a traditional letter grade. While some teams may share a letter grade, the order below is presented in order. That’s to say that not all “B” grades are exactly the same — those teams reside in the same tier, but the order in which they are listed serves as an indicator as to who sits atop that specific tier.
The top spot has been ping ponging between the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens over the past month. The Lions took the top spot in Week 16, lost it when the Ravens went nuclear on Christmas Day, then re-gained it back with their own stellar showing on Monday night.
Which offense do you think is the best in the NFL? Where does your team sit? Let’s dive in!
1) Detroit Lions
All stats referenced in this article are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
- Grade: A
The Lions were able to take over the top spot after a Week 16 win over the Chicago Bears, and barely held on to it after another explosive offensive performance on Monday Night Football in Week 17.
What they’ve put on paper is close to impossible, as Detroit owns the top offense in the sport in pass success rate and third-best in rush success rate. Jared Goff has put on a masterclass in efficiency all season long, sans the five-interception game against the Houston Texans, and Jahmyr Gibbs has taken that next step into superstardom.
Whether the Lions finish the regular season first or second in our grading system, one thing has become clear — this offense gives Detroit a chance to overcome a litany of injuries on the defensive side of the ball and challenge for a spot in New Orleans this February.
2) Baltimore Ravens
- Grade: A
The Ravens lead the league in EPA per dropback and red-zone efficiency — not a surprise when you consider that they have an MVP candidate flanked by an Offensive Player of the Year contender, a tandem that puts defenses in a position to decide between bad and worse near the goal line.
Their Christmas Day demolition of a top-10 Houston Texans defense was another illustration of how overpowering the Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry rushing attack can be. Baltimore ranks second in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate, balancing an explosive attack with one that also stays on schedule.
Overall, Week 17 was the 10th time this season that Baltimore has posted a weekly top-five finish. Apart from a brief midseason blip, this has been as consistently elite an offense as any in 2024.
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Grade: A-
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers regained control of the NFC South by throttling the Carolina Panthers in the afternoon and sweating out the help they needed from the Washington Commanders at night.
The offense has certainly earned the right to play postseason football. Baker Mayfield is playing at the highest rate of his career, and that has allowed Tampa to post a top-five ranking in both EPA per rush and pass success rate. If Mayfield can throw one more touchdown in Week 18, he’ll join Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks in Buccaneers history to record 40 passing scores in a season.
Bucky Irving has allowed Tampa to balance the run with the pass (not to mention flex Rachaad White into a more comfortable role), and the Buccaneers are clicking on all cylinders right now.
If the past month proves predictive of the future in terms of Jalen McMillan’s development, Tampa Bay will be tough to beat, even if its record suggests it’s not a top-tier team.
4) Buffalo Bills
- Grade: B+
After briefly reaching the A-grade level, the Bills have settled in at a B+ entering the final week. That likely won’t improve if many of their starters rest in Week 18, but Josh Allen has nonetheless likely sealed his first MVP with another terrific game in Week 17.
The Buffalo Bills’ offense ranks first in the league in points per drive and second in EPA per play, but one of Allen’s greatest areas of growth has been his mitigation of negative plays. In addition to his career-low 1.2% interception rate, Allen is taking sacks at the second-lowest rate of any QB this season (just behind Derek Carr). In fact, his 2.8% sack rate would have led the league each of the prior three seasons.
James Cook (15 rushing touchdowns this season after pushing just four carries across the line in his first two seasons) has shown great growth this season. Plus, the backup tandem of Ty Johnson and Ray Davis gives Buffalo’s offense a level of balance that we didn’t expect.
Allen is the heavy favorite to win 2024 MVP honors and is seemingly making history weekly. The Bills may not be perfect, but they have every chance to give this franchise its first championship.
5) Washington Commanders
- Grade: B
The Hail Mary to beat the Bears will be one of the season’s highlights, but that fortunate play undershoots just how good the Washington Commanders’ offense has been. Jayden Daniels was in the MVP conversation, and while the splash plays get the attention of TV shows, how about his ability to do simple things at an elite level?
Through 17 weeks, the Commanders have the eighth-lowest turnover rate, which puts the offense in position to succeed as often as any — fueling their fourth-place ranking in points per drive.
Daniels’ latest masterpiece was his overtime victory in Week 17 over the Atlanta Falcons to clinch the Commanders’ first playoff appearance since 2020. His scrambling has led to a ridiculous 53.5 EPA, while no other QB has more than 35.7 EPA on scrambles this year. Put another way, the gap between Daniels and second-place Jalen Hurts is larger than the gap between Hurts and 11th-place Joe Burrow.
The future is bright for this franchise, and the present is giving us a glimpse of what’s possible.
6) Arizona Cardinals
- Grade: B
The Arizona Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. with the intent to make this offense a powerhouse. While the rookie has had an up-and-down season, the balance of this unit is nothing short of elite.
Despite some recent struggles, the Cardinals rank as a top-10 offense by both passing and rushing success rate. The other offenses in that category are the Ravens, Lions, Buccaneers, and Commanders.
This may not be the perfect team, but the offense gives Arizona the ability to contend with anyone in the NFL. That didn’t result in a playoff appearance in Jonathan Gannon’s second season, but an improvement to the 27th-ranked unit in Defense+ could easily result in a playoff trip in 2025.
Arizona didn’t quite play up to that level in Week 17, even with Trey McBride recording his first receiving touchdown of the season. Still, this unit has numerous building blocks for the first time in ages, which bodes well for the Cardinals taking the next step in their rebuild.
7) Cincinnati Bengals
- Grade: B
The 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals might be the most explosive team in the history of the sport with such a record. Joe Burrow’s latest onslaught came in Week 17, with three touchdowns (all to Tee Higgins) and 412 passing yards leading to the Bengals’ third one-score win in 10 tries this season.
Through 17 weeks, Cincinnati ranks second in pass success rate (behind the Lions), with Burrow eclipsing 40 passing touchdowns for the first time in his career. He’s been nothing short of great despite a run game that hasn’t been very supportive (25th in success rate).
Chase Brown’s versatility has helped facilitate the eye-popping numbers from this passing game and creates a level of underneath production that can serve as a supplement to a traditional run game. The Bengals will need Brown for their Saturday Week 18 matchup against the Steelers after the second-year back injured his ankle at the end of regulation in Week 1.
So much about this offense looks the part of a playoff team, but there are two sides of the ball, which is what has Cincinnati hoping for a miracle to reach the postseason.
8) Green Bay Packers
- Grade: B
Jordan Love isn’t afraid to take chances. While that creates some downside, his style of play has paid off more often than not up to this point in the season.
The issue is that it paid off too late for the Packers to complete their near-comeback in Week 17 against the Minnesota Vikings. Love was held in check in the first half, and despite his fourth-quarter outburst, has averaged -0.06 EPA per dropback in four games against the Vikings and Lions this season. Against all other teams, he’s averaged 0.20 EPA per dropback.
Josh Jacobs has been extremely efficient and productive all season, tying Paul Hornung’s franchise record for consecutive games with a rushing touchdown with seven straight. The former Las Vegas Raiders back has played a big part in Green Bay’s red-zone offense ranking ninth after producing at a below-average level for most of the season.
Still, if Love and the passing game aren’t going to perform at a top-10 level against the NFC’s elite, Green Bay’s playoff stay could be shorter than expected.
9) Kansas City Chiefs
- Grade: B-
The Kansas City Chiefs are the target of more criticism than praise because they aren’t as explosive as our eyes want them to be. But championships aren’t won through highlights, and the Chiefs are back in the top 10 after spending most of the season mired in the middle.
The Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes tandem has KC’s offense picking up third downs at the NFL’s highest rate while ranking fifth in pass success rate, a testament to this unit’s metronomic efficiency.
And with Hollywood Brown finally in the lineup after his preseason shoulder injury and Xavier Worthy finding his footing, the passing game looks like it’s peaking entering the playoffs. Christmas Day vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers saw Mahomes post his highest EPA per dropback of the season (0.43), one week after he recorded his fourth-highest mark vs. the Texans (0.30).
Now Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs’ top veterans will get two weeks off and be at full strength when the Divisional Round arrives. That’s a frightening thought for the other teams in the playoff field trying to prevent the first Super Bowl three-peat.
10) Minnesota Vikings
- Grade: B-
The Vikings have cracked the top 10, a remarkable feat considering all the questions around Sam Darnold throughout the season. With Minnesota playing for the NFC North and No. 1 seed in Week 18, Darnold has pretty affirmatively answered any questions about his ability to lead this team to Super Bowl contention.
The passing game ranks sixth in rushing success rate, which has helped this unit overcome a fairly average rushing game (16th in success rate). Kevin O’Connell’s willingness to seek out explosive plays on early downs has helped Darnold avoid difficult situations too, as Minnesota avoids third downs at the fifth-highest rate of any offense.
Justin Jefferson is the big name, but Darnold is guiding a unit with a floor that ranks among the best in the sport.
11) San Francisco 49ers
- Grade: B-
In an otherwise disappointing season, the 49ers hit a high point in Week 17 despite losing to the Lions. San Francisco posted the highest grade of any offense in Week 17 (90.0), the team’s first A grade of the season.
Brock Purdy is leading the second-best offense in terms of yards per play, trailing only the Baltimore Ravens. That’s an incredible accomplishment given the injuries he’s navigated throughout the season.
Christian McCaffrey made his season debut in the San Francisco 49ers’ Week 10 win but was lost for the remainder of the regular season in the Week 13 loss to Buffalo. The All-Pro RB was joined on injured reserve by featured backup Jordan Mason, with Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams also suffering season-ending injuries.
There’s plenty of firepower on this roster, but this season is reminiscent of the 2020 49ers who suffered through an injury-plauged season after a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. San Francisco can only hope that another run of three straight NFC Championship Game appearances will follow.
12) Los Angeles Rams
- Grade: B-
The Los Angeles Rams have a pair of elite receivers, and with Puka Nacua putting his name in the ring for the best pass catchers in the sport after another standout Week 17 performance in playoff-clinching win over Arizona, counting this team out is simply irresponsible.
This season, Kyren Williams has Los Angeles’ offense ranking seventh in rushing success rate. The respect Williams demands from opposing defenses has allowed the Rams to rank sixth in third-down avoidance — they are constantly operating from ahead of the chains, a common trait of successful offenses.
The passing game hasn’t been the most consistent on a week-to-week basis, leading to a fairly wide fluctuation in grades. The Rams have four top-five weekly finishes, but Week 17 vs. the Cardinals was also their fourth time ranking 20th or worse in a single week. Still, with Nacua and Cooper Kupp both healthy, Los Angeles’ upside gives it a fighting chance to win a playoff game for the first time since the Super Bowl LVI victory.
13) Philadelphia Eagles
- Grade: C+
Can the Philadelphia Eagles peak at the perfect time this year?
The highlight machine that is Saquon Barkley has opened up offensive versatility that simply didn’t exist last season. The ninth 2,000-yard rusher in NFL history has led the top-ranked offense by EPA per rush (0.08).
The Eagles can produce against anyone, but if the offensive line remains a liability when it comes to pass blocking, Philly could be in a precarious spot if it falls behind in a playoff game.
The Eagles are the worst team at preventing pressure when not blitzed, a flaw that could undo all the good it’s capable of doing. That said, with playmakers at every level, counting this offense out isn’t a wise move as long as Jalen Hurts recovers from his concussion before the Wild Card round.
14) Atlanta Falcons
- Grade: C+
Regardless of the quarterback switch, this was always a run-first unit. The Falcons are first in rushing success rate, and leaned even more heavily into Bijan Robinson since benching Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr.
Unfortunately, the limitations of that approach came to roost in the second half of their Week 17 loss, which could eliminate Atlanta from playoff contention. The Commanders keyed in on Robinson after a pair of first-half rushing touchdowns, cutting Atlanta’s rushing success rate from 76.5% in the first half to 40.0% in the second half.
Robinson is a special talent, and Drake London has proven to be a true alpha top target. But moving to Penix was really a move to give the 2025 roster a head start, and the Falcons appear likely to fall just short of snapping their six-year playoff drought.
15) Miami Dolphins
- Grade: C+
Tua Tagovailoa has been an efficient passer since returning to the field outside of a three-interception game in Houston. However, the Miami Dolphins still only rank 18th in points per drive, in part because of the hole they’ve dug themselves in games without Tua.
To the Dolphins’ credit, they did average 0.24 EPA per play in the Week 17 win over the hapless Cleveland Browns without Tagovailoa, who was out with a hip injury. It was the first time in 10 games under Mike McDaniel that the Dolphins have averaged a positive EPA per play without Tua as the starting quarterback.
De’Von Achane has looked nothing short of special for most of the season, but a curious mid-game benching against Cleveland kept the game closer than expected for much of the contest. Tyreek Hill did record his third 100-yard game of the season despite Tyler Huntley starting, a vast improvement from his 35 receiving yards per game in four other games without Tua this season.
Remarkably, the Dolphins still have a chance to reach their third straight postseason despite all the various setbacks this offense has seen in 2024. It’ll require help from the Chiefs’ backups, but Miami has taken advantage of some soft opponents to put itself in a position to capitalize.
Regardless of what happens in Week 18, this offense has enough talent to finish in the top 10 in 2025 with better health, even if the scheme doesn’t diversify.
16) Jacksonville Jaguars
- Grade: C
The Jacksonville Jaguars have underachieved this season, and their offense, while not prohibitive, never took the step many had projected under Trevor Lawrence. And to the surprise of no one, Mac Jones has been unable to showcase any improvement.
Jacksonville is playing out the string on a lost season, but not all is doom and gloom. The Jaguars have the 11th-best EPA per rush average behind their tandem of Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr.
Meanwhile, WR Brian Thomas Jr. has looked like a star during his rookie season. In Week 17, Thomas became the fourth rookie in the Super Bowl era to record 1,100 receiving yards and 10 receiving scores. The names he joined were Ja’Marr Chase (2021), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), and Randy Moss (1998).
If the play under center can be a tick above ordinary (likely under a new coaching staff), the Jaguars’ offense has the potential to threaten our top 12 next season. All things considered, a league-average output is impressive considering all the season-ending injuries to this unit.
17) Denver Broncos
- Grade: C-
Bo Nix is an exciting watch, but is that best when it comes to succeeding at a high level?
Nix’s athleticism has the Denver Broncos posting the third-lowest sack rate, but that coin has two sides. As he looks to create, things can spiral out of control in a hurry, thus resulting in Denver ranking 18th in EPA per dropback, although that number is heavily impacted by early-season struggles.
In addition, despite Nix’s ability to create explosive plays, the Broncos have the worst third-down avoidance rate in the league (22.5%). Some of that is due to an average rushing attack, though Denver ranks higher in rushing success rate (15th) than passing success rate (22nd).
Nix has had impressive second half moments, and there’s a good chance he performs well in Week 18 against a Chiefs defense that will rest its best players. Regardless, the arrow pointing up after 2024, thanks to Sean Payton giving this offense creative upside that few franchises can offer.
18) New York Jets
- Grade: C-
The New York Jets gave us a glimpse of what is possible in Weeks 13-15 coming out of their bye, but things have come crashing back down in back-to-back disasters against the Rams and Bills.
Week 17’s game saw the Jets trail 40-0 to Buffalo before pulling Rodgers. Their final grade is inflated by a pair of Tyrod Taylor-led touchdown drives, but Rodgers earned a failing QB+ grade (58.5), his lowest in a game since the metric began in 2019.
Rodgers gets most of the headlines, but this is also the 27th-ranked offense by EPA per rush. A Breece Hall-led attack should be more effective than that, and it’s played a role in New York also ranking 27th in red-zone touchdown rate.
The only certainty is that the offseason will bring significant change to Florham Park. That could result in a better offense with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson still in place, but it’s hard to envision the 2025 outlook for a team that was all-in on 2024 and flamed out spectacularly.
19) Los Angeles Chargers
- Grade: C-
The Los Angeles Chargers are never going to grade out well for us because Jim Harbaugh believes in pounding the rock. But he’s opened up the offense in the second half of the season, and the changes have looked great on Justin Herbert.
LA’s passing metrics have spiked a bit lately, but the design is a conservative one (lowest turnover rate). It figures to lean on its defense as long as it is having success in doing so.
The offense got a boost with J.K. Dobbins returning to the lineup in Week 17 following an injured reserve stint. Even with Dobbins healthy most of the season, though, the Chargers rank 26th in rushing success rate.
Herbert is a well-above-average quarterback capable of having Los Angeles play at a higher level if given the opportunity. Week 17 resulted in the Chargers’ highest Offense+ grade of the season (83.0), with Herbert posting his second-highest EPA per dropback average of the season (0.42).
The Chargers’ defense hasn’t always performed at a top-10 level against elite offenses, which is what Los Angeles will likely encounter in the playoffs. While Herbert has far more support than he did his first four seasons, he’ll remain the most important factor to this franchise getting its first playoff win since the 2018 season.
20) Indianapolis Colts
- Grade: C-
The Indianapolis Colts are about as much of a hit-and-miss offense as there is in the NFL from quarter to quarter, never mind game to game.
While the defense embarrassed itself in the Week 17 meltdown vs. the New York Giants, the Colts’ offense was about as advertised. Indianapolis scored or turned the ball over on nine of its 12 drives on Sunday. That’s entirely on-brand for an offense with the second-highest turnover-per-drive rate this season.
Jonathan Taylor looked like his 2021 self for most of Sunday’s game, though even he had a critical failure on a turnover-on-downs sequence. Regardless, the mileage is piling up on Taylor, who needs more help from the passing game than either Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco have provided.
With one week left, this unit ranks 22nd in EPA per play — a single stat that, in this case, essentially agrees with where they currently sit in our rankings.
This is a talented group, but raw talent gets you nothing in the NFL without a similar level of execution. That was lacking on both sides of the ball in Week 17, ultimately costing the Colts an opportunity to snap a playoff drought that is now up to four seasons.
21) Seattle Seahawks
- Grade: D+
The Seattle Seahawks’ offense as a whole is in a good spot with Jaxon Smith-Njigba amid a Year 2 breakout that gives them upside to round out this season and for years to come. JSN is performing like this team’s most reliable playmaker, and if that continues, this unit can score with anyone.
Kenneth Walker III, when healthy, has shown flashes, and with Zach Charbonnet churning out production in his absence, it’s easy to project this as a well-balanced offense for years to come.
However, the offensive line must get fixed for 2025 to help Geno Smith avoid some of his worst habits. Seattle has allowed the third-highest non-blitz pressure rate this season, and Smith has responded with the most turnovers when pressured this season (13). The benched Kirk Cousins is the only other player with more than 10 turnovers when pressured.
22) Dallas Cowboys
- Grade: D+
The Cowboys stabilized for a few weeks under Cooper Rush, leading to an impressive 4-1 stretch that may wind up saving Mike McCarthy’s job.
However, Dallas shut down CeeDee Lamb for the season after the All-Pro receiver aggravated his right shoulder injury in Week 16. An outmatched unit floundered against an ultra-talented Eagles defense in Week 17, recording its third-worst grade of the season (69.4, D+). That indicates where this unit really stands in 2024.
It was too late for the Cowboys to salvage this season anyway, and the recent uptick in performance gave some hope that Dallas can return to its prior elite form in 2025 with a healthy Dak Prescott and Lamb.
23) Pittsburgh Steelers
- Grade: D+
Eleven days ago, the Steelers were facing one of the most daunting stretches for any team this season. And while any team would be hard-pressed to look good, Pittsburgh decisively flunked its test with three non-competitive losses to the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs.
Two of the Steelers’ three worst games with Russell Wilson as the starter have come during this stretch (69.1 vs. the Chiefs, 68.5 vs. the Eagles). For all the discourse about how the unconventional switch from Justin Fields to Wilson improved the offense’s ceiling, Pittsburgh ranks 22nd in Offense+ since Wilson became the starter. They were 23rd with Fields.
In reality, Pittsburgh mostly just sticks to its familiar formula of not beating itself. This unit checks the basic boxes, ranking 11th in turnover rate and 13th in third-down conversion rate. But apart from the occasional explosive play to George Pickens, this offense doesn’t have much more life than the unit of the previous five seasons.
With Pittsburgh likely headed on the road for Wild Card Weekend, the Steelers’ playoff ceiling is probably capped. Mike Tomlin’s team is always capable of making life difficult on its opponents. But as the past three games illustrated, that formula only travels so far against elite competition.
24) New Orleans Saints
- Grade: D+
The New Orleans Saints were tracking toward being the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf through the first two weeks. Now, ranking 24th feels optimistic.
Alvin Kamara performed well despite OL limitations, part of the reason why New Orleans still ranks 11th in rushing success rate. But the injury bug (groin) caught up to Kamara like it did to most of his skill-position teammates this season, rendering the Saints’ offense a shell of itself.
Derek Carr was doing what he could to elevate the Saints’ offense, but a broken hand in Week 14 ended his season. As a result of woeful play from backups Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, the Saints are down to 30th in passing success rate, ahead of only the Browns and Panthers.
This will be an interesting team to evaluate heading into 2025, but in the scope of the remainder of 2024, the first two weeks may as well have been a different season.
25) Tennessee Titans
- Grade: D
The Tennessee Titans lack direction right now. Until that is rectified, there’s not much upward mobility here.
Will Levis won’t be the unquestioned opening-day starter in 2025. Any doubts about that were answered after Week 15, as he was benched in favor of Mason Rudolph. That sets the Titans up to find a new starting quarterback in 2025, as Rudolph is a stopgap to get through the end of 2024.
The backfield metrics up to this point fuel a modest 19th ranking in rush success rate, a nice showing when you consider how little pressure this passing game has put on opposing defenses.
This offense is a ways away from fielding even an average offense, but a high first-round pick can flip the direction of a franchise in a hurry.
26) Carolina Panthers
- Grade: D
The Panthers are struggling across the board and will soon have to make a long-term decision on Bryce Young. He’s looked better by our QB+ metrics since returning to the starting lineup, but the overall numbers suggest that Carolina is a long way away from fielding a competitive team, even if they label him as the man for the rebuild.
Through 17 weeks, Carolina ranks 30th in third-down conversion rate and 29th in EPA per dropback. The trio of young pass catchers on this offense (Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Ja’Tavion Sanders) gives some reason for optimism. However, Jonathon Brooks’ ACL retear is a tough pill to swallow, even if Chuba Hubbard appears to be a well-above-average NFL running back and is under contract after his four-year extension.
The cupboard isn’t bare, but the Panthers need to figure out what ingredients should remain in the recipe for 2025. Young has had encouraging outings in December, particularly the Week 16 overtime win over the Cardinals, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll be QB1 for Dave Canales’ second year.
27) Chicago Bears
- Grade: D
We’ve seen enough flashes from Caleb Williams to say that he is Chicago’s QB of the future, but not all growth is linear. It’s certainly been a bumpy ride.
There have been moments, but the second-worst third-down offense is never going to grade well for us or have success at a high level. That flaw likely improves with time as Chicago’s rookie signal-caller adjusts to the speed of the pro game, but it’s been prohibitive up to this point.
On the bright side, this is already an elite red-zone offense (seventh-best), not typically a calling card for an offense with this many moving pieces. The current grade isn’t strong, but it’s easy to envision an offense that doesn’t have a historically high sack rate improving in 2025.
28) New England Patriots
- Grade: D
The Patriots are a unique case. Their 2024 numbers are a hot mess (29th in EPA per play and 30th in points per drive), but the willingness to admit as much and commit this season to developing Drake Maye is something that this fan base can get excited about.
The rookie has taken his lumps thus far, but he’s also shown promise by way of his athleticism and processing speed. Maye is far from a finished product, and the Week 17 disaster vs. the Chargers was a reminder that there will be more downs than ups while the roster remains in its current state.
But New England is making it clear that it’s willing to lose the battle of 2024 in the hope of winning the war of the next handful of seasons. Of the teams toward the bottom quarter of our rankings, this is the one with the most upward mobility over the next 12 months.
29) Las Vegas Raiders
- Grade: D
Without promise at the QB position, you’re drawing dead in the NFL these days, and the Raiders are as good an example of that as anyone.
Las Vegas ranks 29th in both turnover rate and last in EPA per rush. Defenses have no reason not to be aggressive against them, especially following the Davante Adams trade, which has made life difficult for Aidan O’Connell, Desmond Ridder, and Gardner Minshew II at quarterback all season.
The Raiders’ offense doesn’t have a calling card, which makes moving much higher in these rankings anytime soon unlikely. Vegas fans would be wise to get a jump start on scouting the incoming QB class, as its 29th-place ranking in points per drive this season feels like a ceiling for the roster as currently constructed.
30) Houston Texans
- Grade: D
The C.J. Stroud brand has quickly become a safe offense, and with the league’s 12th-lowest turnover rate, that much has remained. For the season, Houston allows sacks at the sixth-highest rate, a flaw that caps its upside when paired with the receiver injuries and 32nd-ranked rushing offense by success rate.
The Christmas Day fiasco against Baltimore was a new low point, with only a safety preventing a shutout on the scoreboard. Houston recorded a 59.2 (F) grade, its worst single-game grade since the Davis Mills nightmare days of 2021.
It’s virtually impossible for a playoff team to have an offense this poor, as all the teams surrounding the Texans in the rankings are picking at or near the top of the draft. As it stands, Houston is poised to have the lowest-ranked offense for any playoff team since the Offense+ metric began in 2019.
31) New York Giants
- Grade: D-
Nothing can save the New York Giants from a terrible grade after 16 weeks of inadequate play. But for one afternoon, Drew Lock delivered one of the most unlikely spectacular performances in recent NFL history.
Lock recorded the fourth-highest single-game QB+ grade since 2019 (97.0), a feat that was beyond stunning against a Colts team battling to stay in the playoff hunt. The Giants’ offense produced five touchdowns, more than half of its total (eight) over their first eight home games combined.
New York has a ton of problems looking ahead to 2025, as the quarterback room and coaching staff could all see total overhauls. But for at least one day, Lock gave Giants fans a very unfamiliar taste of elite offensive production.
32) Cleveland Browns
- Grade: F
At the very least, Jameis Winston made the Browns a fun watch, even if it didn’t lead to many more wins. But as upsets over the Ravens and Steelers illustrated, the best version of Winston had the Browns resembling the defense-first squad that stole a playoff spot in 2023.
However, with a playoff spot long out of the question, the Browns have elected to ride out the rest of 2024 with Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The former UCLA quarterback is almost certainly not an NFL-level passer, but it doesn’t hurt for the Browns to definitely discover that for sure (and improve their draft positioning in the process).
Sure enough, this team has seen its offensive efficiency decline in five straight weeks after the initial surge that resulted following the shift to Winston. The 25-year-old DTR is the anti-Winston given how conservative he plays, which has led to even worse results with Nick Chubb (broken foot) out for the season.
Cleveland’s top objective this offseason will be trying to find its quarterback of the future. That will likely have to come from the draft given Deshaun Watson’s albatross contract, but it’s a better alternative than what the Browns have trotted out this season.