Week 17 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 16 weeks of data, could Week 17 be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Week 17 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 17 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Packers moneyline
- Quentin Johnston ladder: 1.5 units on over 36.5 yards, 0.75 units on 50+, and 0.5 units on 70+
- Mac Jones to not throw an interception (+110)
- Mason Rudolph to not throw an interception (+130)
David Bearman’s Picks
- Raiders/Saints under 38
- Lions -3
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Bo Nix over 226.5 passing yards
- Michael Penix Jr. over 210.5 passing yards
- Breece Hall over 46.5 rushing yards
- Rachaad White under 64.5 rush + receiving yards
- Rico Dowdle under 60.5 rushing yards
- Kenny Pickett over 13.5 rushing yards
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson under 165.5 passing yards
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Soppe: There are plenty of impact games on the schedule this week and this isn’t high on the list – I’m not sure about you, but my wallet doesn’t care. I mean, who doesn’t want to spend a holiday weekend invested in Quentin Johnston?
You heard me right. It’s QJ time. We either get one last chance to lose money on QJ in 2024 or we head into the new year with positive vibes – what could go wrong?
Hear me out. The New England Patriots have been unable to get pressure all season long (28th in pressure percentage). They’ve largely given up even trying to get home (31% blitz rate through 11 weeks and 21.2% since) and that’s an issue given that only the Panthers create pressure at a lower rate this season when not bringing the heat.
Justin Herbert is a gifted QB, that much we know, but he is a gifted aggressive one when not pressured. This season, he ranks fifth in average depth of target when not pressured, a big difference from him ranking 17th when sped up.
I promise this is going somewhere.
Johnston has been the game-breaker in this passing game, Ladd McConkey is the clear-cut target hog, and while Joshua Palmer can extend the field, it’s largely been Johnston when it comes to shifting the game with a single play.
Deep-ball production among Chargers WRs, 2024:
- McConkey/Palmer: two TDs on 24 catches and 26.6 yards per catch
- Johnston: five TDs on seven catches and 29.6 yards per catch
And the Los Angeles Chargers know it. Johnston’s on-field target share sits at 28.6% when Herbert is not pressured and has time to let him extend his route (when pressured: 7.7% target share). Add in a dash of expectations (1.70 yards per route this season when Los Angeles is favored compared to 0.95 as an underdog) and we are in business.
I’ll have plenty of exposure across the big week, but this is the single spot where I’ll have the most tied up. I’m structuring this in such a way that if he goes over his listed total and nothing else, I’m essentially breaking even while leaving myself open to plenty of upside should he land a big play and/or see volume well above expectation, both of which I think are possible!
Pick: Quentin Johnston ladder: 1.5 units on over 36.5 yards, 0.75 units on 50+, and 0.5 units on 70+
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
Katz: All the Cincinnati Bengals do is get into shootouts…unless they’re playing Thompson-Robinson. This is a straight-up disrespectful line to Bo Nix, who would be running away with Rookie of the Year honors if Jayden Daniels didn’t exist.
Nix has sailed over this number in four of his last five. The only game in which he failed to get close was in a blowout victory over the Colts.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals will make sure the Denver Broncos have to score points to keep up. Nix should have no trouble moving the ball against a Bengals defense allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game.
Pick: Bo Nix over 226.5 passing yards
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Katz: This is admittedly a long-shot play that is not likely to hit. However, I think we’re getting good odds here. Obviously, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s rookie year has not exactly gone as planned. He hasn’t been bad, but for a generational “can’t miss” prospect, Harrison’s rookie season pales in comparison to the likes of Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., and it even lags behind Ladd McConkey.
What we do know is Harrison has shown flashes. One of those flashes came in Week 2, when Harrison popped off for 130 yards against the Los Angeles Rams. Perhaps more importantly, though, Kyler Murray mentioned in a press conference earlier this week that he needs to work on his connection with his No. 1 WR. With the Arizona Cardinals’ season now over, there’s really no reason for the Cardinals to not emphasize Harrison and try and force him the ball to close the season on a positive note.
For all of Harrison’s struggles, he has seen 8+ targets in three of his last four games. I don’t trust Harrison enough to take his receiving yards over, but I am willing to throw a free bet or a small wager on Harrison to reach triple digits in a potential shootout against a below-average Rams pass defense.
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. 100+ receiving yards +700
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Bearman: If you watched any part of Monday Night Football, this won’t surprise you. The New Orleans Saints resemble a Triple-A franchise with a coach who still doesn’t know the rules. They were shut out in the first half of back-to-back games for the first time since 1997 and became the first team to be shut out this season in the loss to the Packers. Since their Week 12 bye, the Saints have scored 14, 14, 19, and zero points — and not one game got to 40 total.
The Las Vegas Raiders looked a little better last week with Aidan O’Connell back but still only managed 19 points versus the awful Jaguars. They haven’t hit 20 points since their Week 10 bye.
The number 38 is low, yes, but don’t overthink it. Combined, these teams are averaging 28 points per game over the last month. That’s a 10-point cushion.
Pick: Raiders/Saints under 38
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Katz: Bucky Irving has completely taken over the RB1 role for the Bucs. Rachaad White still starts, but it’s ceremonial. Once the game gets going, White mostly plays when Irving is tired or on obvious passing downs.
The Panthers are the worst run defense in the NFL. However, White is not exactly the most efficient runner. He will need volume to accumulate yards. Last week, he saw all of three carries but was heavily involved as a receiver.
This week, with the Bucs likely to be leading, White may not be needed as much through the air. Plus, there seems to be much displeasure among the Bucs’ coaching staff with White’s game-losing fumble last week.
I’m hearing 85 touches for Bucky Irving this week https://t.co/ZRJxm4uq5x pic.twitter.com/cLa5YnVyYv
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) December 26, 2024
Let’s roll the dice on White getting punished by his coaching staff and seeing limited work this week in a game script that won’t favor his skill set.
Pick: Rachaad White under 64.5 rush + receiving yards
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Katz: The concern with taking Breece Hall’s rushing over is the potential for the Buffalo Bills to smoke the New York Jets, forcing them to abandon the run. But if the Jets can keep this thing competitive for at least a half, Hall should have no trouble clearing this number.
Hall looked back to his usual self last week, playing 77% of the snaps and handling 14 carries. When these teams met in Week 6, Hall had his only 100+ yard rushing effort of the season, carrying the ball 18 times for 113 yards. Both numbers are season highs.
The Bills are an average rush defense, but much easier to beat on the ground than through the air. Hall is talented enough to do this on only a handful of rushes. If the volume is there, this could win by halftime.
Pick: Breece Hall over 46.5 rushing yards
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Soppe: We’ve seen 23 games this season see fewer than 30 points scored, and while I’m not betting on this total, I’m not exactly expecting fireworks. And I don’t think these two coaching staffs have any illusion that this is Josh Allen vs. Matthew Stafford 2.0 either.
The Jacksonville Jaguars struggle to create pressure (31st) and that has fueled a 1% interception rate, the third-lowest mark in the league. Mason Rudolph was careless last week (stop me if you’ve heard that for a Tennessee QB before), but that hadn’t previously been a major issue (2020 through Week 14: 2.1% INT rate), and I’m not expecting it to sustain through this game.
On the other side, we have Mac Jones. Perfect? Far from it, but his kryptonite has been the deep ball (six of his seven interceptions have come on passes thrown more than 15 yards downfield) and teams simply don’t feel the need to force the issue against the Tennessee Titans.
For the season, Tennessee has the 12th-lowest opponent average depth of throw, a ranking that checks in at seventh lowest if you only look at the more recent data (Weeks 7-16). Both of these quarterbacks are more than capable of blowing up this bet, but I have this game projected to be tight, thus opening the door for a high-volume ground game.
Both of these offenses rank higher than the league average in rush rate over expectation – pound the rock and sweep the board for us. That’s the goal, but we can get out of dodge if just one bet connects.
Pick: Mac Jones to not throw an interception (+110)
Pick: Mason Rudolph to not throw an interception (+130)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Katz: I was very surprised to see this line open this high. I can’t help but wonder if it’s an overreaction to the likelihood of neutral game script with Kenny Pickett starting in place of Jalen Hurts. While that certainly helps Rico Dowdle’s case, the Philadelphia Eagles’ QB situation is not suddenly going to make their run defense bad. Against a Bucs pass-funnel defense last week in a game the Dallas Cowboys led throughout, Dowdle only ran the ball for 23 yards on 13 carries. Against the Eagles in Week 10, Dowdle carried the ball 12 times for 53 yards. I just struggle to see how he gets to 60+ against a defense allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Pick: Rico Dowdle under 60.5 rushing yards
Katz: This is an awfully low line for a quicker-than-you-think Pickett. During his rookie year with the Steelers, Pickett averaged 18.2 rushing yards per game. He’s certainly willing to take off and run when the situation calls for it.
Last week, Pickett dropped back to pass 30 times after replacing Hurts. He attempted 24 passes, took three sacks, and scrambled three times for 13 yards.
The Cowboys have a ferocious pass rush that should force Pickett out of the pocket. As a backup quarterback, he is more likely to tuck it and run rather than stand tall and go through his progressions when under duress. Pickett can clear this number on one good scramble.
Pick: Kenny Pickett over 13.5 rushing yards
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Soppe: Am I backing Tua Tagovailoa on the road in December?
I sure am. He’s getting a bit of a northern-state discount here, and while it is true that he’s distancing himself from the equator, there are unseasonable temperatures in the forecast, so let’s put that narrative to bed.
The Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins own the two lowest deep-pass interception rates in the league this season, so while both of these offenses have been ultra-conservative this season, there’s nothing that should hold them back from pushing the envelope a little more than what we’ve seen thus far.
Tagovailoa has cleared his career aDOT average 12 times this season and has cleared this number eight times. This season, he’s averaging 36.3 pass attempts per game, and if you adjust that study above to only games with 30+ attempts, he’s 7-2 in terms of going over his Week 17 projection.
Quarterbacks this season are averaging 242.9 yards against the Browns when throwing at least 27 passes – Tagovailoa has reached 28 attempts in every fully healthy game he has played this season.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa over 232.5 passing yards
Katz: Any opportunity to bet against Dorian Thompson-Robinson should be cherished. There are certain players who are gifts that keep on giving but for a limited time only. The every-week-unders-no-matter-what scenarios typically only last a couple of weeks before their teams realize those players shouldn’t be on a professional football field.
I don’t see any world where DTR starts in Week 18. I really think Kevin Stefanski is going to give Bailey Zappe a shot. In fact, that’s part of the process here, as it wouldn’t shock me if DTR got benched in the second half.
For us to lose this bet, Thompson-Robinson would have to throw for a career high in passing yards. Last week, against as easy of an opponent as it gets (the Bengals), DTR needed 34 pass attempts to merely get to 157 yards. The Dolphins allow the 12th-fewest passing yards per game. Always fade DTR.
Pick: Dorian Thompson-Robinson under 165.5 passing yards
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Soppe: Does the blitz-heavy thing get old with time for the Minnesota Vikings?
I’m not ready to blindly go in that direction, but I do think it’s worth tracking. Last season, the Vikings were 2-0 in divisional games, the teams that know them better than anyone, before Thanksgiving and 0-4 after.
Three of their four divisional games up to this point have been decided by a field goal or less and I think they are at risk of falling on the wrong side of variance this week – the Green Bay Packers are 7-2 against the nine highest opponent blitz rates they’ve faced and Jordan Love has completed 15 of 19 passes against the blitz over the past two weeks.
Green Bay has relied heavily on Josh Jacobs lately, and while Minnesota’s season-long numbers against the ground game look good, they are allowing 30% more yards per carry after contact over the past four weeks than the first 12. If they can continue to run the ball, I like the potential of this defense to make enough plays (the Packers and Eagles are the only top-7 defenses in both third-down conversion rate and YAC allowed) to earn them the season split with the Vikings in their chase for the NFC’s five seed.
Pick: Packers moneyline
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Katz: This is a perfect example of why matchup and projected game flow is so important. Last week, we hit on Michael Penix’s passing yards under because the Atlanta Falcons blew out the Giants, as expected. But interestingly enough, Penix got way closer than I thought he would, throwing for 202 yards on just 27 pass attempts. That has me very confident he can sail over his projected yardage total this week due to a much different expected game environment.
The Washington Commanders have one of the best offenses in football and are four-point home favorites. Atlanta is unlikely to be able to pound Bijan Robinson all game. They will have to throw.
In his second career start with a win under his belt, Penix should be more comfortable and more willing to let it rip. Drake London is good to go and the Falcons have no shortage of quality offensive weapons. After running the ball 34 times last week, look for the run/pass ratio to even out a bit.
For some reason, this line has moved against me, which rarely happens. Massively negative closing line value with it now being available at 202.5. I would obviously hammer it at that price.
Pick: Michael Penix Jr. over 210.5 passing yards
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Bearman: OK, I will bite. I know the books are being conservative in case the Detroit Lions sit players to save them for the Week 18 showdown vs. the Vikings, which likely will decide the NFC North champion and No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. The books are enticing you to buy low on the Lions with the uncertainty.
If you’ve been paying attention to Dan Campbell over the years, his style on and off the field, or even what he said this week about playing everyone, you know he is not only playing everyone but wanting to go all out and get revenge for the NFC title game loss last year.
Sure, the Lions have injuries, but they also keep winning. Can’t say the same for the team on the other side of the field. I watched the Dolphins dominate the hapless Niners last week, who looked checked out. They are down to their fourth-string RB, Brock Purdy isn’t right, and both lines are banged up. They have nothing to play for and the other team is gearing up for the game of the year.
This would normally be a 5-to-7-point line based on all the metrics we see this season. PFN’s win probability has this in favor of Detroit by 68.7%, which equates to about 5.5 points. Take the gift.
Pick: Lions -3