There is an NFL game at 1 pm EST on a Saturday? Well, if that’s going to be the case, it might as well be an absolute cracker of a game between two talented offenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be eliminated from playoff contention, but this is about next season as much as right now for them, and they will continue to fight hard. As for the Houston Texans, if they win, they secure the division and at least one home playoff game. Let’s take a look at how the PFN team sees this game between the Texans and Buccaneers shaping up, and their picks for this Week 16 NFL game.
Location:
Time: 1:00 pm EST
Spread: Texans -3
O/U: 50
This game has been trending heavily to the Texans this week, with over 80% of the money and bets coming in on the Texans. Given the injuries for the Buccaneers, that is hardly surprising, and it would not be shocking if this line moved to 3.5 by kickoff. Offensive firepower is expected to be on show in this game, with around 70% of the money and bets being on the over. The line had briefly flicked down to 49.5, but it has moved up to 50 once again. If the weather forecast in Tampa Bay improves, we could even see that total climb higher closer to kickoff.
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Bet predictions from Ben Rolfe
This game had the potential to be somewhat of a crazy one a few weeks back. Since then, the Buccaneers have lost Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, putting a huge dent in their offense. Additionally, the weather forecast for this game suggests we could see 15-to-18 mph winds. That could be a killer for passing efficiency and prevents the over from being the play on the total here. However, the way these two offenses play means that I cannot trust the under either, and therefore, I will stay away.
The problem for the Texans in this game is that I have major concerns about how their run game will perform. Quietly, their running game has been solid this season, ranking 12th in rushing DVOA and sixth in yards per attempt. However, the Buccaneers run defense has been a monster this season, ranking second in yards allowed per attempt and lead the league in DVOA when it comes to stopping the run. What this means is that despite the weather, I think we see the Texans turn to the passing game to win this one. If they get involved in a slug-fest on the ground, this game becomes a lottery for them.
Taking advantage of the Buccaneers leaky secondary, with both of their leading receivers healthy, should be the key to victory here. Therefore, Deshaun Watson’s passing attempts numbers becomes a good betting opportunity here. Weirdly I also think the weather helps here because worse conditions make it harder to complete passes and can actually lead to more attempts.
1u – Deshaun Watson Over 33.5 Passing Attempts | -110
Bet predictions from Ryan Gosling
Although it didn’t seem to make much of an impact last week, I have a feeling that Jameis Winson will finally struggle without talent at the wide receiver position. With 153 receptions and 17 touchdowns between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season, both their absences will be too much for the white-hot Winston to overcome. I don’t seem to be the only one to believe that is the case. This line opened as Houston -1 and is already up to the key number of -3. Understandably, the public is on Houston here.
It makes sense if you look at these two teams ATS records. The Bucs have yet to cover at home this season, whereas the Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Houston has something to play for here, and even though it is difficult to handicap motivation, the Texans will likely have more in this one. Plus, Deshaun Watson has his top targets available with Will Fuller back. It is still a small number, so I am willing to lay the field goal with a healthier team.”
1u – Houston Texans -3 | -110
Bet predictions from Chris Smith
This number opened at Houston -1 and is up to -3 in most spots as of the submission of this article. I still like the Texans as long as you avoid the hook and keep the spread at a field goal. Houston is coming off a huge victory in Tennessee this past Sunday, but with a potential division title at stake this weekend, there will be no look-ahead spot for the Texans in Tampa.
Deshaun Watson and company have an opportunity to capture the AFC South by securing a victory over the Buccaneers and rendering next weekend’s rematch against the Titans meaningless. Jameis Winston will be without his two favorite targets this week against a motivated Texans team that is actually getting healthy at just the right time. I expect him to turn the ball over just enough to allow the Bucs to be outscored in a likely shootout.
The Buccaneers have continued to play hard for Bruce Arians, winning 5 of 6 after their brutal start to the season. A closer look at their opponents over this recent stretch, however, reveals a who’s who of cellar-dwellers such as Detroit, Jacksonville, and Arizona. The Texans, meanwhile, are always prone to dropping a dud when you least expect it. Bill O’Brien’s boys have been solid on the road this year, though, and Tampa has never been a particularly imposing place to play for visiting teams. I’ll take Houston to clinch the division on the road on Saturday.”
1u – Houston Texans -1.5 | -110 (as posted on the @PFN365AA twitter account)
Make sure to follow along on the All-Access Twitter page for real-time plays like this to avoid line movement working against you. Want more betting analysis? Click for the latest from the PFN Betting Crew. Be sure to also follow us on Twitter: @PFN365.
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