Kyle Soppe’s Week 16 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Outlooks for Isiah Pacheco, D’Andre Swift, Drake London, and Others

Congratulations! Or thank you! Or both!

If you’re sticking with me entering Week 16, that means you’ve advanced to play meaningful fantasy football games, which is an impressive accomplishment.

Or maybe this novel has just become a part of your routine, so you’re here for the dated jokes, narrow range of lyrical references, or thin grasps at “real life” comparisons.

Whatever the case may be, it’s go time. Pull up a chair, pour yourself a cup of coffee, and let’s get you a win in Week 16.

How do you do that? Out-working your opponent is a good place to start, and that work starts right here, right now. Below are my thoughts on every player that figures to matter in this critical week. If you have Flex questions, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @KyleSoppePFN. I like helping you win more than you like winning, I promise!

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams

• Spread: Rams -4
• Total: 46
• Saints implied points: 21
• Rams implied points: 25

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: By throwing five touchdown passes and completing 75.9% of his passes in consecutive soft matchups, Carr’s name may be on your radar — don’t make that mistake. He has thrown just 76 passes over the past three weeks, and this matchup isn’t nearly as advantageous as facing the Panthers/Giants.

Carr was QB7 last week, his first finish better than QB19 since Week 9. Move on.

Matthew Stafford: The recent form of Stafford is enough to land him inside my top 15, but the matchup against the fifth-best per-pass defense keeps him outside of my top 10.

Stafford has multiple TD passes in four straight games and has finished, on average, as QB8 over that stretch. With a 40+ yard completion in three of those four games, the talent around Stafford is enough to land him squarely on the streaming radar if you’re dealing with injury or worried about Tua Tagovailoa/C.J. Stroud in tough spots.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Some might consider Kamara a disappointment this season due to the lack of a true ceiling, but I’d argue that the floor he has provided has resulted in a fine return on the investment you made this summer.

Kamara has been an RB2 or better in every game this season, but he hasn’t finished better than RB14 in five of his past six games, fueling the feel of anguish.

With 15 carries or a touchdown in each of his past four games, Kamara deserves to be locked into lineups, even if the potential isn’t what you thought it would be.

Jamaal Williams: The Rams are an above-average defense when it comes to both limiting red-zone trips and the percentage of those trips ending in touchdowns, making Williams a tough sell as a Flex play in any format.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

His snap count flirted with Kamara’s last week (32-29 edge in Kamara’s favor with a 14-10 advantage in routes), and that’s enough to earn him a spot on rosters. But there simply isn’t enough projectable volume to count on Williams in any capacity.

Kyren Williams: The Rams tried to get cute last week as they got in close to the end zone, and they found out exactly why they let Williams handle the heavy lifting in that regard.

Upon getting into a goal-to-goal situation, Royce Freeman got a carry and then a goofy play-action pass where Kupp was sent in motion one way and Stafford rolled the other. Neither worked, so they let Williams punch it in, continuing his run as one of the most reliable options in the game this season.

He’s been a top-10 RB in three of four games since returning to the field, not bad for a back that was top 10 in four of six games prior to getting banged up. Williams is as valuable as any running back not named Christian McCaffrey this week, and I don’t think that’s a hot take.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Much like Kamara, Olave’s status as a fantasy superstar is debatable, but he rarely puts you in a spot to lose your matchup (top 30 in five straight games with an average positional finish of WR17).

An ankle injury cost Olave Week 15, making his health worth monitoring. No Saints player stepped into his target share, thus, giving me confidence that when he is deemed healthy, his 8.9-target role will be sitting right there for him against the defense with the second-highest opponent aDOT this season.

Rashid Shaheed: That last part of the Olave analysis gives me some hope in Shaheed if I’m a massive underdog in a win-or-go-home spot. But outside of that, playing Shaheed comes with a floor that is lower than I’m willing to deal with.

With Olave out last week, Shaheed managers were hopeful that the deep threat would see his target rate spike and thus give him access to a ceiling that we know is strong.

No luck. He posted a 14.3% target share, ranking him fourth on the team. Shaheed hasn’t been a top-50 receiver since Week 8 and isn’t a viable option in most semifinal situations.

Cooper Kupp: After not scoring in five straight games, Kupp has reached paydirt in three straight, catching 22 of 26 targets over that stretch (84.6%).

Were his stats inflated last week due to a miscommunication that led to an uncontested 62-yard score? Yes, but even without that play, his volume is moving in a very positive direction, and while he’s not the player he was during the historic 2021 run, he’s proving to be valuable for managers who embraced his discount this summer.

Every situation is different, but I’m using the Kupp progression as a good reason to bet on talent in your draft, even if at less than full health when your fantasy draft is taking place.

Puka Nacua: The rookie extended his season-long streak of consecutive games with at least seven targets, though his five catches netted just 50 yards. The ability to earn targets trumps his recent struggles to put up big numbers with those opportunities and is the driver behind my ranking of him as a WR2.

Every week, a weird trend emerges for at least one player as I comb through these players, and Nacua is that player this week. This season…

• Games vs. AFC North: 103.8 receiving yards/game, 18.9 yards/catch
• Games vs. rest of NFL: 74.8 receiving yards/game, 11.5 yards/catch

Sadly, the Saints are not a part of the AFC North.

Demarcus Robinson joined Kupp and Nacua in running a route on every single Stafford dropback. He was filling in for Tutu Atwell and has now scored in all three games this month. Does it matter?

MORE: Demarcus Robinson Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 16

For me, it doesn’t — not in terms of your starting lineup in the fantasy semifinals, at least.

With Stafford playing at a high level, the WR3 in this offense deserves to be rostered, but given the target-earning skills of the top two receivers in this offense, there’s not enough in the way of volume (9.4% target share on Sunday) for me to label this position as anything more than a desperation play against the fifth-best pass defense on a per-attempt basis.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: After sitting out Week 14, Hill underwhelmed in a major way against the Giants last week as he posted one target, one rush, and one pass attempt. His unique skill set provides him access to an elevated floor that is rare for the position, but if he’s operating at less than full strength, his lack of excelling in any one role puts him in a spot to completely fail like he did last weekend.

Having Olave on the field certainly would be helpful, as it stretches the defense and limits the attention they can pay to where Hill is lining up. In theory, Hill should be healthier this week than last, and if Olave returns, there should be room for him to exploit a defense that misses the seventh-most tackles per game.

I have Hill as my TE13 — essentially the leader of my fourth tier at the position and one that you can roll the dice on if you’re stuck.

Tyler Higbee: Has the shine of that multi-TD Week 12 performance in Arizona worn off yet? This is an offense that is more than capable of running the ball and one that prioritizes three receivers ahead of him when they do take to the air.

Stafford playing at a high level gives Higbee the ability to be efficient on the few targets he does see (78.6% catch rate over the past month), but without volume or much in the way of scoring equity, you can find better options on your waiver wire.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Bengals -2
• Total: 37
• Bengals implied points: 19.5
• Steelers implied points: 17.5

Quarterbacks

Jake Browning: Everything is trending in the right direction for Browning in this conservative offense. He’s completed over 69% of his passes in all four of his starts, is averaging 317.7 passing yards over his past three games, and has thrown multiple TD passes in consecutive games.

With three straight top-eight finishes, that’s a helluva résumé. But then — Ja’Marr Chase separates his shoulder, and the house of cards stands to collapse.

The threat of Chase over the top, even in a low-octane offense, requires significant defensive attention and opens up everything else. It opens up what has been an elite screen game and puts Tee Higgins in the type of single coverage situation that he made the highlight-reel play in last week.

Browning has finishes of QB4, QB4, and QB8 this season. Add up those finishes, and you get QB16, a reasonable expectation for the rookie this week.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: When we talk about a player peaking at the right time, this Mixon run is gearing up to be exactly what we’re talking about. That said, Chase’s injury could derail everything if this offense struggles to move the ball.

Mixon has scored four times in his past three games, finishing each of those weeks as a top-15 performer at the position. He has returned fantasy-starter value in seven of eight games since the bye and has been held scoreless just once since mid-October.

Of course, that one game was the first meeting with these Steelers. That, however, was Browning’s debut and saw the Bengals hold the ball for under 23 minutes. Things have changed since then — in a massive way.

The Steelers have become a must-target run defense of late, and given Mixon’s form, there’s no way around ranking him as an RB1 in this spot.

After giving up north of 20 fantasy points to both Ezekiel Elliott and James Conner, Pittsburgh allowed the backup tandem of Trey Sermon/Tyler Goodson to run for 157 yards while filling in for Zack Moss.

Mixon has found paydirt at least once in seven of his past eight. And with Cincy’s offense employing a conservative game plan with Browning under center, Mixon’s role is nothing short of elite. He should continue to guide your fantasy team!

Chase Brown: We can agree that Brown’s splash-play potential jumps off the screen, but we can also agree that his usage isn’t enough to justify counting on him.

For the season, Brown has just one finish better than RB28. He has seen 7-9 carries in all three games this month, but he has been able to turn six targets into 108 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks.

He is big-play reliant in an offense with limited upside behind a veteran RB. Roster Brown, but keep him on your bench as a late-season handcuff worth holding.

Najee Harris: For most of November, Harris was a viable option. But those days seem to be a thing of the past.

Harris has 62 yards on 24 carries over the past two weeks and has failed to clear three feet receiving in three of his past five games.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

For me, Harris is a version of Gus Edwards. He projects to lead his team in rush attempts and will handle the goal-line work, but the per-carry upside is limited.

Harris is one spot ahead of Edwards for me thanks to a sizable edge in opposition, but neither is a must-start (RB30 and RB31 in my Week 16 rankings).

Jaylen Warren: The role in the passing game for Warren is stable (3+ catches in 11 games this season), but without a 20-yard gain or a touchdown in four straight games, his upside isn’t high enough to justify flexing him.

The talent is there, though the opportunity is not. Warren checks in a handful of spots behind Harris this week in a matchup that favors the run game more than the pass.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: All signs point to Cincinnati’s star sitting out at least this game with a separated shoulder, an injury that has the potential to end his regular season. We saw Chase catch 11 of 12 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars to open the month, and we thought his value under Browning was going to be stable.

That hasn’t proven to be the case in the weeks since. Following that performance, Chase has turned seven targets into 93 yards and no touchdowns, seeing just 12.3% of the targets. Chase won’t be a WR1 next week for me should he return, though he will be ranked as a starter if he can return to the field.

It should go without saying that Chase is worth holding onto through this DNP.

Tee Higgins: The two touchdowns last week were great to see given that Higgins hadn’t scored since Week 2. Him earning eight targets (more than he totaled in the two games prior with Browning under center) was also certainly a step in the direction.

With Chase sidelined, Higgins’ target count figures to be safe in this matchup against a floundering Steelers defense.

MORE: Can You Start Either Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd in Week 16?

You’re taking on risk with Higgins, understanding that the range of outcomes is wide (three top-10 finishes alongside six weeks outside of the top 40), but in this spot with a clear path to a strong opportunity count, he’s a fine WR2 that I’m playing over other WR1s with question marks under center (Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, for example).

Diontae Johnson: Every offseason, we nail a ton of player profiles and miss on a ton — it’s the nature of the business. We thought Johnson would offer a high floor due to volume with limited upside due to his lack of scoring equity. We were wrong.

He’s scored in three straight games, but Johnson has less than five catches in six games this season. His value, of late, has relied on his ability to find the end zone, and that’s a terrifying thought in an offense that hasn’t scored 20 points in a game in over a month.

I’m willing to play the middle game with DJ in Week 16. He’s been a WR2 in all three games during this scoring streak, a run of production that comes on the heels of three straight finishes outside of the top 45 at the position.

Johnson is my WR37 this week. He’s not someone I’m going out of my way to play in the fantasy playoffs against a defense that challenges down the field more than anything.

George Pickens: The idea that teams attack the Bengals’ secondary with deep passes should make Pickens an appealing Flex option, but nothing he has shown us on the field dictates we should be optimistic about him.

With less than 50 yards in consecutive games and under 60 in seven of his past eight, Pickens has seemingly checked out. The numbers suggest as much, and if they’re not enough to sell you, search “Pickens run blocking,” and you’ll understand that train of thought.

Pickens hasn’t scored since October and has failed to finish better than WR45 in seven of his past eight games. So what motivation do I have to rank him anywhere near the Flex radar? He sits outside of my top 40 at the position, behind Johnson, and in the same tier as Joshua Palmer and Rashid Shaheed.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Can we be done here? His roster percentage remains above what it should be, so I feel obligated to highlight the fact that he hasn’t reached 30 yards once since his career day (nine catches for 120 yards against the Bengals).

MORE: Fantasy TE Start/Sit Week 16 — How Should You Handle Isaiah Likely and Pat Freiermuth?

In fact, did you know that the big game in Cincinnati is Freiermuth’s only game with more than 41 yards since Christmas Eve?

There are going to be fantasy teams forced to bet on TEs that rely on scoring in order to make them worth starting, but considering that the Steelers haven’t reached 20 points since mid-November, is this really an offense you want exposure to?

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers

• Spread: Bills -10.5
• Total: 43.5
• Bills implied points: 27
• Chargers implied points: 16.5

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Now you know how Lamar Jackson managers feel!

Allen wasn’t called upon to do the heavy lifting last week in a surprisingly easy win over the Cowboys. And while that is a risk of repeating this week, you’re not wise to make that assumption.

Allen has seven top-five finishes this season (three of his past five such games coming on the road), and if Buffalo goes up big, it’s likely that Allen has a say in that.

You can feel just fine about playing Allen. Don’t sweat the down Week 15 even a little.

Running Backs

James Cook: I like digging deep into individual players as much as anyone, but sometimes, just listening to what the team is telling you by their play-calling is enough.

The Bills have faced off against Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott over their past three games. To compete with those teams, they’ve opted to gradually move the ball, and Cook has been their means to that end.

MORE: James Cook Hot Take Along With 92 Other Opinions for the Stretch Run!

In those three games, Cook has racked up 64 touches and 462 yards (7.2 yards per touch). His volume and efficiency are peaking at the perfect time, and this Chargers defense doesn’t exactly profile as the type that is likely to slow down this progression.

Cook is an RB1 for me this week as I operate under the assumption that his average ranking of RB8 over his past four games is here to stay.

Austin Ekeler: Game script certainly played into Ekeler only touching the ball nine times on Thursday night in Vegas, but why wouldn’t we have those concerns in this spot?

Ekeler doesn’t have more than 10 carries in any of Los Angeles’ past four losses (outside of the top 30 at the position in fantasy points in each of those games) and as a big underdog this week, a projection in that range makes sense.

I’m less worried about the carry count (it’s never been elite) and more worried about the lack of splash plays. It’s been over a month since he had a touch gain of 20 yards, and it goes without saying that scoring opportunities are going to be limited in this offense sans Justin Herbert.

The matchup scares me much on paper — the Bills win with offense and have recently surrendered a pair of top 15 RB finishes to Breece Hall and Rachaad White, two backs that did the majority of their damage through the air.

It’s fair to downgrade Ekeler and be disappointed at his recent output. That said, benching him is a bit more aggressive than I’m willing to be.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Due to the blowout nature of Week 15, Diggs saw his snap count fall off a cliff. Buffalo building a massive lead and bullying their way to the finish line isn’t something I view as sustainable, so I’m not too worried with that happening at face value.

The concern for Diggs goes well beyond the win over the Cowboys. He’s finished outside of the top 45 at the position in four of his past five games, which has him sitting outside of my top 10 this week.

This is a great get-right spot for a player averaging 9.8 targets per game, the second most of his career. You can lower your expectations a touch, but benching Diggs is overreacting.

Gabe Davis: For next season, players will no longer be labeled as a “boom/bust” option and rather be labeled as a GABE.

Gaining
Anxiety
Because of
Empty targets

I’m going to do my part to work this into our technology and make this a part of our weekly rankings. Davis has been held without a catch in four of his past six games, but he has five top 20s on his 2023 ledger. That production appears to be a thing of the past, and while the playing time is there, we haven’t seen proof of concept for going on two months.

Keenan Allen: The veteran receiver was a spectator last week (heel), as he missed his first game after missing seven contests a season ago.

The casual observer might look at Easton Stick’s Week 15 stat line (23/32 for 257 yards, three TDs, and one INT) and assume that Allen will be just as productive as he was this season with Herbert under center (253.2 yards per game when healthy with a 3.3 TD-INT ratio), but you’re better than the “casual observer.”

MORE: Can You Trust Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen in Your Fantasy Playoffs Without Justin Herbert?

In the first half last week, the Chargers had seven drives: None of them lasted more than five plays (four punts, two fumbles, and one failed fourth-down conversion). To say this offense was inept prior to falling behind by 42 points at intermission would be a gross understatement, providing us with little hope that any pass catcher can be counted on.

There is no shortage of fantasy viable WRs this season that have seen their stock tank due to a change under center and Allen figures to be the latest when he returns to the field. If he takes the field this weekend, he is nothing more than a Flex option — far from the lineup lock he was for the first three months of this season.

Joshua Palmer: Palmer returned to action last week after an extended stay on IR with a knee injury. He turned four targets into 19.3 fantasy points. His 79-yard touchdown saw him run through questionable coverage and Stick was able to hit him in stride for the score.

It was good to see Palmer run at full strength, but that play is far from predictive. I laid out my concerns for this passing game as a whole within the Allen write-up, and Palmer is subject to the same problems — but without the track record of proven target earning that Allen owns, Palmer carries even more risk than reward.

I have no issue in rostering him given the path to targets in this offense, but until we see this offense produce anything of note when the opposing defense is locked in, he’s not on my Flex radar.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: It’s very possible that Kincaid played a big role in getting your fantasy team into the postseason and very possible he was the driving force behind you getting eliminated last week (zero catches on two targets).

If you managed to survive the dud performance and/or are just now starting your playoffs, I think you have to trust the process and go right back to the rookie.

Kincaid’s my TE7 this week — nothing in his usage patterns last week raised a red flag for me. I’m playing him with confidence in a game that figures to see much more volume through the air for this offense than last week.

Gerald Everett: Did you know that Everett doesn’t have a 50-yard game on his résumé this season? He has caught 4+ passes in four straight games while distancing himself from Donald Parham (23 yards on six targets over his past two games) as the TE to consider in this offense.

However, when streaming the position, I need more touchdown equity than Everett offers (11 touchdowns in 46 career games).

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: Falcons -1
• Total: 44
• Colts implied points: 21.5
• Falcons implied points: 22.5

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: Reports on the broadcast last week talked about Minshew’s summer pickleball success against overmatched soccer moms. He treated the Steelers in a similar fashion despite playing most of the game without either of his top two running backs and his WR1.

Last week, Minshew averaged 11.9 yards per completion and threw three touchdown passes for the first time in 1,182 days. He wasn’t perfect, but he made the most of what he had and produced against a defense that has the ability to hold opponents in check.

This isn’t a great matchup and that keeps Minshew out of my top 12, especially if the health of his playmakers is compromised. He’s an option in two-QB formats thanks to his form and the fact that the Falcons are routinely challenged down the field.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: This thumb injury has cost Taylor three straight games, but there is general optimism surrounding his recovery, making a Week 16 return to action a possibility.

If that is indeed the case, I’ll be not only projecting him to lead this backfield in touches, but to do so with ease. In his three games pre-injury, Taylor scored four times and averaged 20.7 touches per game.

MORE: Should You Start the Colts’ RBs vs. the Falcons?

This Falcons defense is top 10 in yards per play, yards per rush, and red-zone TD prevention rate, but a high-usage JT is a fantasy starter. Where exactly he falls in the ranks should he play, depends on Moss’ health, but he’ll be in my top 25, regardless.

Is it a leap of faith at this point in the season? To a degree, yes, but at the running back position, you’re chasing talent and volume — good luck rostering 2-3 backs with a better combination than Taylor.

Zack Moss: We thought that Moss had a real chance at being the story of the fantasy postseason following the Taylor injury. After a pair of high-usage, yet underwhelming, performances, Moss was on his way to providing patient fantasy managers with what they deserved — elite production (seven touches for 33 yards and a touchdown through the first 16 minutes).

On that TD catch, however, Moss was the victim of a horse-collar tackle that resulted in an arm injury that kept him out for the remainder of the game.

He should still be viewed as the second in command of this offense, but Moss’ injury — combined with Taylor’s health trending up and the two backs behind him producing against the Steelers last week — all but guarantees that he won’t be the league-winner we had hoped down the stretch.

Yet, if both Taylor and Moss miss this game, Trey Sermon or Tyler Goodson could be worth an add off the waiver wire.

Bijan Robinson: After four straight top-20 finishes at the position and gaining all of our confidence in a major way, Robinson picked up 14 yards on eight touches against the worst team in football, hardly out-snapping Tyler Allgeier in the process (30-26).

So now what?

Suggesting you have confidence in how Arthur Smith will deploy his weapons is a flat-out lie. Robinson is pretty clearly the most talented option, and in a coin-flip game against a defense struggling in the red zone, he should be ranked as an elite option.

I can’t get there, yet there’s no way I’m benching him given the upside in this matchup and the fact that we’ve seen plus-usage in the not-so-distant past. Robinson isn’t a top-10 play for me, but I prefer him to other struggling stars like Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler.

You made a bet on talent when you spent a first-round pick on the rookie, and if you’re still fighting for a league championship, you’re likely doing the same this week.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman Jr.: Through 14 weeks, Pittman was the owner of an absolutely elite 31.3% target share and was tracking for another big week against the Steelers before being lit up by Damontae Kazee, a hit that resulted in the immediate ejection of Pittsburgh’s safety.

In general, the average recovery process from a concussion has been just shy of nine days, putting Pittman on the wrong side of questionable as we near the kickoff of Week 16. Of course, the “average” timeline doesn’t apply to everyone, so make sure you are keeping tabs on the PFN Fantasy News Tracker.

MORE: D.J. Montgomery Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 16

That said, you’d be wise to make alternative plans. If he passes through all of the protocols, you play him. Simple. The hard part is replacing him, something that savvy fantasy managers will plan for well in advance of the weekend.

D.J. Montgomery (three catches through 14 weeks) made some splash plays as his role was expanded following the injury last week and is an interesting stash option. My hope is that you’ve built up enough depth throughout the season to have a more reliable option as your plug-in option, but big plays from Montgomery are not a fluke.

Drake London: Following a career game against the Buccaneers in Week 14 (10 catches for 172 yards), London let you down in a major way with just two catches for 24 yards against the lowly Panthers on Sunday.

To call his yardage totals over his past five games sporadic would be the understatement of the year:

Week 10 at Cardinals: 36 yards
Week 12 vs. Saints: 91 yards
Week 13 at Jets: 8 yards
Week 14 vs. Buccaneers: 172 yards
Week 15 at Panthers: 24 yards

If you think you have a read on this situation, you’re sharper than I. Only 43.2% of touchdowns scored against the Colts this season have come through the air (second-lowest rate), so you’re not likely to get bailed out by a score.

London isn’t a top-30 option for me this week — I’d rather bet on either Ravens WR in a tough matchup or Chris Godwin.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: I can’t do it. I can’t look my wife in the eyes and tell her that I lost my fantasy league (and thus her fancy dinner date) because I played Pitts when it mattered most.

Pitts hasn’t caught more than four passes in a game since Week 5, and his career catch rate is under 58%. His target count has dipped in consecutive weeks and has been five or less in six of his past eight.

There’s no guarantee that a tight end in Atlanta produces viable numbers. Even if we had that as a fact, there’s no certainty that Pitts is the beneficiary.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Seahawks -2.5
• Total: 42
• Seahawks implied points: 22.3
• Titans implied points: 19.8

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: I don’t think we’re looking at a Wally Pip situation here, but Drew Lock did make some nice plays on Monday night’s season-saving win for the Seahawks.

I also don’t think there’s a Seahawks QB that matters for fantasy. Smith (groin) was the top-scoring QB in his last game, but that looks more like an aberration than the rule when you take a step back and look at the entire picture.

That QB1 finish against the Cowboys was just Smith’s third finish better than QB15 this season.

This Titans matchup is a good one, and the playmakers on Seattle’s offense are strong, but Smith isn’t inside my top 12 this week, and that’s not going to change as we near kickoff.

Will Levis: The injury last week didn’t look great, but Levis’ status this week shouldn’t be impacting your fantasy lineup in the slightest. Levis hasn’t posted a finish better than QB15 since his Week 8 debut against the Falcons, and I’d be surprised if he changed that trend should he suit up this weekend.

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker III: When Walker gets at least 17 touches in a game this season, his average finish is RB10. That’s the range in which I have him ranked for this showdown with a Titans defense that gave up 121 yards on the ground to Devin Singletary last week.

Walker’s snap edge over Zach Charbonnet wasn’t massive (34-27), but that was the result of extended two-minute drives that featured hurry-up situations. Walker posted his fifth RB1 finish of the season in the upset win over the Eagles and is a good bet to finish this season in style.

We caught a glimpse of Walker’s upside last season, and we’re getting it again at the perfect time this season. Buckle up, this could be a fun finish!

Zach Charbonnet: The rookie ran seven more routes than K9 last week serving as Seattle’s two-minute and third-down back.

The role that Charbonnet is currently assuming simply isn’t fantasy-friendly. Charbonnet hasn’t been a top-40 running back in either game since Walker returned, and I’d expect that discouraging trend to continue.

Derrick Henry: Henry continues to be pushed for snaps by Tyjae Spears (34-33 last week), but that’s not what bothered me last week.

What bothered me was an RB53 finish in a game in which game script was not a concern, especially after three straight top-10 finishes. Henry is the definition of a TD-reliant running back — he just happens to be good at it and in an offense without many other options.

MORE: IDP Fantasy Football Report Week 16

Henry is a middling RB2 at this point. You’re playing him, but he’s not the elite option that he was to open this season.

Tyjae Spears: The rookie ran five more routes than Henry last week and is pretty clearly the future of this backfield. But do we get a picture of that down the stretch this season?

It’s possible, but with your season on the line, I have a hard time thinking you’re playing a running back who hasn’t been a top-30 producer in six of eight games since the bye. Keep Spears rostered in the event that Tennessee does commit to him and he’s a top-20 RB next week in Houston. But we can’t assume that this is his backfield until we see it.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf: Outside of the blowout against the Cowboys in Week 13, we haven’t seen the upside from Metcalf that we’ve come to know and love.

That said, he has produced 10+ half-PPR points in five of his past six games — production that is enough to make him viable and keep you competitive. With a pass-funnel defense on the other side and a touchdown or 9+ targets in five of his past six games, Metcalf remains locked into fantasy lineups.

Tyler Lockett: Thanks to a nice matchup, Lockett squeaks into the Flex discussion. His play on the field suggests that you’re better off looking elsewhere, as he has only one top-35 finish in his past five games.

The veteran earned nine targets last week against the Eagles but managed just 29 yards. Without a 25-yard catch since mid-October, Lockett simply doesn’t offer the upside now that we are accustomed to, and that doesn’t change regardless of who is under center.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: We said it about all of the rookies in this class, and we’ll do the same this summer: First-year wide receivers improve with experience. JSN is proof positive of that as he is showcasing confidence now that we didn’t see back in September.

FINGERTIPS❕

The rookie puts the #Seahawks ahead on their longest TD drive of the season.

What a play by Jaxon Smith-Njigba! pic.twitter.com/uNKGKDDQYA

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 19, 2023

Smith-Njigba was the WR24 last week courtesy of a picturesque game-winning touchdown catch from Drew Lock, but the strong performance still featured just four targets (his seventh game this season with five or fewer).

I’m still not confident in the quality or quantity of opportunity for the kid, but he deserves to be in the top-35 conversation and offers reasonable upside if you’re willing to take on some risk.

DeAndre Hopkins: The Will Levis injury deserves tracking, but I’m not sure it’ll make a massive difference. Hopkins has finished outside of the top 50 receivers six times this season to go alongside five top-25 finishes.

How lucky do you feel?

I have similar concerns for him as I do Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin — just because you’re the top receiver on your team doesn’t mean you’re a reliable fantasy asset. Hopkins is my WR27 if Levis plays and would fall a handful of spots should the rocket-armed rookie sit.

Tight Ends

There are fringe tight ends that you can gamble on if you’re stuck — they just don’t reside in this game. Save yourself the brain power of trying to talk yourself into any TE in this game earning enough looks to be worth your time.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Lions -3
• Total: 47
• Lions implied points: 25
• Vikings implied points: 22

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff may be on the road, but at least he’s playing indoors. He is coming off of an absolutely dominant effort on Saturday night against the Broncos (278 pass yards and five touchdowns) and has multiple passing scores in each of his past five games when playing in a weather-proof setting.

As for the Vikings, they forced Jake Browning into one bad pass over four quarters (324 yards, two TDs, and one INT), allowing the castaway to look comfortable throughout. Over 70% of yardage gained against the Vikings comes through the air, and Goff should be able to exploit that in a significant way on Sunday.

Nick Mullens: There were a pair of mistakes in Saturday’s loss to the Bengals, but by completing 26 of 33 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns, the good certainly outweighs the bad.

The most encouraging part of Mullens’ big Week 15 performance, for me, was how we got there. He didn’t rely on Justin Jefferson making massive plays after the catch or dump off 10 passes to T.J. Hockenson.

Sure, that dynamic duo resulted in half of his completions, but the bulk of fantasy numbers came on the six passes he directed toward Jordan Addison (111 yards and two touchdowns).

If Mullens is that comfortable in his third option, there is upside left to access should one of his elite playmakers make a splash play or two. Mullens ranks outside of my top 15, but it’s not hard to envision this weatherproof game shooting out, which puts him in a nice spot to build on the success he had in his first start of the season.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs: The fantasy community was ahead of the Lions on this one, as we wanted to see Gibbs unleashed from the get-go. It took us a while to get there, but better late than never.

Gibbs was RB3 last week in a perfect matchup against the Broncos. He’s now been a top-three back in four of eight games since returning to action (average finish over that stretch: RB11).

Loyal fantasy managers who stood by their preseason takes are being rewarded in a major way, which should continue. I have Gibbs ranked as a low-end RB1 this week, and I might be a little low.

David Montgomery: The goal-line role and role in the ground game make Montgomery an RB2 who you can play, but he’s pretty clearly the secondary option in this offense. His value is gradually trending in the wrong direction — his average finishes by two game segments of his past six:

Weeks 10-11: RB9 (both RB1 finishes)
Weeks 12-13: RB14 (both top-15 finishes)
Weeks 14-15: RB24 (both finishes outside of the top 20)

You’re laying him for the floor, understanding that the ceiling isn’t something that is likely for us to see down the stretch of this fantasy season.

Alexander Mattison: An ankle injury suffered in Week 14 kept Mattison out of the overtime loss in Cincinnati last Saturday, and he may have lost his job in the process.

We will see where his health trends in the final few days this week, but with Ty Chandler taking advantage of an advantageous role last week (26 touches for 157 yards and a touchdown), Mattison’s role that he left behind is not the role he’ll assume when healthy.

Ty Chandler: The Vikings had a plan from the jump last week, and it was clear: Trust their backup RB more than their backup QB. Chandler touched the ball eight times on their opening drive, racking up 46 yards and their first opening drive TD of the season.

The matchup this week is clearly more difficult than it was last season, but Minnesota RBs did run for three scores against Detroit a season ago. Chandler has been a top-25 RB in three of four games with 10+ carries this season, a box he figures to check this week regardless of Mattison’s status.

I expect this to be a drive-by-drive situation if Mattison is deemed fully healthy. If that’s the case, both make for risky Flex options.

If, however, Chandler is set to fill the role he did last week again (95.8% of RB carries and 100% of RB targets), he’s to be viewed as a viable RB2 and a reminder that fantasy championships require activity on the wire as much as anything!

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: It was good to see The Sun God rebound from a Week 14 dud with another 100-yard performance that resulted in his fourth top-10 finish of the season.

Generally speaking, betting on Detroit players is a better idea at home than on the road, but with this road game coming indoors, I’m not worried. St. Brown should be considered nothing short of elite. In fact, if you asked me to pick one receiver in this game to play, I’d go with him over Justin Jefferson.

Yeah, he’s that good.

Justin Jefferson: Welcome back, old friend! Jefferson made it through all of Week 15 healthy and was even chirping at different points of the game. The All-Pro posted a 31.3% target share (seven receptions), and his 11.9 half-PPR fantasy points are a nice place to start for what fantasy managers hope is a race to the finish line.

The situation is clearly different, but last December, Jefferson did set a franchise record for receiving yards in a game with 223 against these Lions immediately after a game that featured him catching seven passes.

As long as he is active, Jefferson is a lineup lock. He looked the part of an asset last week and can only benefit from having an extra day to prepare for a divisional rival this week. You spent your top pick this summer on Jefferson — let’s hope he can repay you for that confidence with your season on the line.

Jordan Addison: Sometimes, the universe just aligns, and sometimes, it’s important to note such situations as a way to highlight a greater point.

2022, K.J. Osborn

Height: 5’11”
Week 15 breakout (on a Saturday): 10 catches for 157 yards and one TD (26.7 FP)
Games 11-13: 16.8 half-PPR fantasy points

2023, Jordan Addison

Height: 5’11”
Week 15 breakout (last Saturday): Six catches for 111 yards and two TDs (26.1 FP)
Games 11-13: 16.5 half-PPR fantasy points

Weird, right? I’m not suggesting that we should have seen it coming; I just found it interesting. Another part that I found interesting — and scary — was the encore performance.

Osborn Week 16, 2022: 3.2 fantasy points, 8.5% target share

Both of Addison’s touchdowns last week came with a high degree of difficulty and/or luck, plays that are tough to use in a big way when projecting forward. Was I impressed with Nick Mullens at points last week? I sure was, but some of the concerns I voiced prior to Jefferson’s return when it comes to Addison remain.

MORE: What To Do With Jordan Addison in Fantasy?

At best, he’s a Flex play this week — a best-case scenario that I’m not comfortable banking on with my fantasy season on the line.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: The rookie scored three times on six targets against the Broncos, continuing his storybook start to his career. With at least five grabs in three of his past four games and nine scores on his résumé, the floor/ceiling combination is nothing short of elite for LaPorta as we round out the season.

The NFC North has given LaPorta troubles (one top-15 finish in four games), but that’s more me wanting to share a weird stat than it is actionable. He’s a Tier 1 tight end for me and a threat every week to lead the position in fantasy points, something LaPorta’s already done three times this season.

T.J. Hockenson: With Nick Mullens under center, Hockenson hauled in six of seven targets for 63 yards — essentially what we’ve come to expect from Minnesota’s tight end (Weeks 1-14: 6.5 catches for 64.5 yards per game) this season.

The elevated floor is what you love about rostering Hockenson. Could he hit a ceiling game in a revenge game spot? All four of his double-digit target games this season have come indoors, a box that Hock will check for the remainder of this regular season.

You’re playing him without much of a thought, and if the Lions can force the Vikings to be aggressive on the offensive end, he is live to lead the position in fantasy points during the semifinals of most leagues.

Washington Commanders at New York Jets

• Spread: Jets -3
• Total: 37.5
• Commanders implied points: 17
• Jets implied points: 20.5

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Jacoby Brissett took over late last week against the Rams and looked good, but the team made it clear following the loss that Howell was still their guy.

Every quarterback in the league has a stinker. That’s more of a fact than an opinion. Howell had posted six straight top-10 finishes prior to the mess that was Week 15, so I’m not worried about his ability to produce the goods.

I am, however, worried about a defense that ranks top five in red-zone touchdown prevention and yards per pass attempt. This Howell run has been a good one for QB streamers, but in a tough spot this week and another brutal matchup on New Year’s Eve against the 49ers, his time as a usable fantasy asset has come to an end.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr.: A hamstring resulted in Robinson missing his first game of the season, as the Week 14 bye week wasn’t enough for him to recover from the Week 13 injury.

It may feel like a while ago, but in Weeks 6-11, Robinson returned starter-level fantasy production in six straight games. His role inside the 10-yard line has been his calling card, but an increase in versatility (15 catches over his past three healthy games) has served as a fantasy stabilizer.

MORE: Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. Start/Sit Week 16

Does his role change upon his return? Labeling him as a bell cow feels overly optimistic, and that stands to make him a risky option in this brutal matchup. If he plays, you’re chasing a touchdown. That could pay dividends (he has eight this season), but a role like that means a low floor, and that is terrifying this time of year.

We will see where his health status lands as we get closer to kickoff, but at the moment, I’m looking for an excuse to bench him in my most important league, and I’d suggest you do the same if you have reasonable depth.

Antonio Gibson: Instead of extending Gibson with Robinson out last week, the Commanders opted to give Chris Rodriguez Jr. 10 carries to Gibson’s four. That’s all I needed to see.

Gibson caught all five of his targets (20 yards), but if what we saw last week was his role ceiling, I’m not interested.

Robinson may miss another game considering his lack of activity on the practice field over the past few weeks, but even if that’s the case, Gibson is more of a contrarian DFS play than he is someone you need to concern yourself with in season-long formats.

Breece Hall: The talented rookie hasn’t cleared 50 rushing yards since Week 5, and we saw the risk in that profile last week.

After 26 receptions in a four-game stretch, Hall managed just six receiving yards on his two targets against the Dolphins. Normally, I wouldn’t mind an RB with this sort of versatility (think peak Austin Ekeler), but with the limitations of this offense, that versatility doesn’t elevate Hall’s floor like it does for others.

Hall hasn’t been a top-24 RB in three of his past four games and in five of his past seven. We saw Israel Abanikanda play 22 of the final 28 snaps last week, usage that came in garbage time. But could New York look to see what he has as this season comes to a close? I’m not ruling it out.

Hall has RB1 talent but slots in as an RB2 for me despite a plus matchup where game script doesn’t figure to be prohibitive.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: The big Week 15 performance was good to see, but much of his production came with Brissett under center, including a beautiful 29-yard touchdown that was simply the exploitation of single coverage.

We know McLaurin is talented, but prior to Brissett unlocking him, he had been held to 50 yards or less receiving in four straight.

MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Start ’Em, Sit ’Em Picks for Week 16 — Aaron Jones, Javonte Williams, and Terry McLaurin

This is a tough matchup that scares me from locking in McLaurin. He’s my WR29 and shares a tier with a pair of grizzled veterans in Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham Jr.

Curtis Samuel: For the first time since mid-October, Samuel found the end zone against the Rams. He liked the feel of it so much that he decided to take a second trip.

I don’t think we see another game like that this week, but with three straight top-35 finishes (doubling his season total), Samuel has certainly worked his way onto the Flex radar.

The floor is low considering that the catch count is far from stable and that he averages just 9.8 yards per catch this season, but Samuels is a viable option for managers who are without a player they consistently Flex.

Jahan Dotson: Love the upside in his skill set, but he’s not for me. Dotson has turned six targets into just 35 yards over his past two games and has yet to finish a week as a top-40 receiver when he doesn’t find paydirt.

Dotson is a name to potentially invest in at a discount next season, but not one that I’m even remotely interested in at this point in this season.

Garrett Wilson: Wilson saw a season-low four targets last week, and it resulted in his fifth finish outside of the top 40 receivers. Of course, there is the other side of that coin that has Wilson finishing four weeks as a top-20 WR.

The Commanders allow 30.2 points per game — the only defense allowing even 27 ppg — so I’m more likely to bet on Wilson’s potential than to get caught up in the downside that naturally comes as a part of this QB committee situation.

Wilson isn’t likely to be the WR1 that you drafted this summer, but I do have confidence in him as a WR2 this week. I rank in the same tier as Tee Higgins and Davante Adams, other top receivers on their team with question marks under center.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: The veteran TE held value in the first half of the season, but we’re well beyond that at this point. Thomas has totaled just 22 yards on eight targets over his past three games and hasn’t scored since October.

The floor is too low to consider given that the ceiling isn’t one that would swing your matchup. You can do better when looking to stream the position in this game …

Tyler Conklin: This offense is obviously prohibitive of anything ceiling related, but Conklin has eight games with at least four catches this season, which is enough if you’ve built a monster roster that just needs a non-zero at the position to round things out.

He’s a situational play and his mean outcome doesn’t get him inside of my top 15 tight ends this week. However, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a spot for Conklin in meaningful fantasy matchups this week.

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers

• Spread: Packers -5
• Total: 36.5
• Packers implied points: 20.8
• Panthers implied points: 15.8

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: In theory, the matchup with the Panthers should lend a level of confidence for QB streamers to flirt with Love, but I’m not tempted.

He hasn’t finished as a top-15 quarterback in consecutive games after three straight top-10s, a dip in production that lines up with the health of Christian Watson’s hamstring. Add in an injury to Jayden Reed and there is far more risk in betting on Love than there is reward in betting against Carolina.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: In his return to action after missing nearly a month, Jones touched the ball 17 times for 69 yards against the Bucs. Included in that effort was a 20-yard run (his longest rush of the season), four catches (matching a season high), and an RB23 finish (his best since Week 1).

With Love displaying some growing pains with inconsistencies, it’s likely that another 15-20 touches is in store for Jones against the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league. That role has him sitting as a low-end RB2 for me this week, ranking favorably to D’Andre Swift and Javonte Williams.

AJ Dillon: A broken right thumb left Dillon on the sidelines last week and could do so again given the impact on ball security that this injury has.

MORE: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon Start/Sit Week 16

Dillon is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season and has scored once on his 186 touches. If we get word that he will sit out, you can cut ties — you’re not playing him in Week 17 after consecutive missed games.

Chuba Hubbard: This is no longer a committee. Hubbard was +30 in the snaps department over Miles Sanders last week and has carried the rock 22+ times in three straight games.

Hubbard’s role is that of a lineup lock, but his situation encourages us to tread lightly. We are looking at a Flex play with a narrow range of outcomes. He’s averaging under four yards per carry this season, and his role in the passing game has been spotty, though the sheer volume of work in an offense that lacks other options is valuable.

I’m treating Hubbard in a similar fashion as I am Najee Harris. He’s a fine option that I’m not excited about playing but will take my medicine and plug him in.

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: With a pair of top-10 finishes, the 2022 version of Watson was starting to emerge prior to this hamstring injury. Yet, a nagging injury like this for a receiver whose skill set is centered around speed is a major concern.

Does Watson return for this game? If he does, does he make it through its entirety?

There are no shortage of moving pieces when it comes to evaluating Watson as it is, so when you toss in the up-and-down nature of Love, we’re looking at a player that carries more risk than I’m willing to take on at this point in the season.

If you’re desperate and he’s active, you can take a shot. If I have Watson, I’d rather be a week late than a week early and need him to prove his health before he earns my trust.

Jayden Reed: Keep an eye on his health (toe) as we near the weekend, but as long as he gets a clean bill of health, Reed is playing for you.

His 17-yard toe-tap touchdown last weekend against the Bucs was about as pretty as it gets, and it helped Reed finish as a top-25 receiver for the fifth time in six games. The rookie has pretty clearly moved into the WR1 role in this Packers offense, and while he has a higher target expectancy should Watson sit, I’m playing him either way.

Adam Thielen: The veteran receiver dropped what should have been a short touchdown last week. That fueled his third finish outside of the top 50 wide receivers in a four-game stretch.

Early this season, Thielen was a reliable option, but we’re a ways away from that. At this point, I’d rather bet on Josh Downs in an extended role or the sudden king of the end zone in Diontae Johnson.

Jonathan Mingo: Some players are assets in your fantasy playoffs while others are options that I’m watching closely with an eye on next season. Mingo is the latter.

The rookie ran a route on 93.3% of Carolina’s dropbacks last week and has averaged an impressive 7.2 targets per game over his past six.

I like what I’ve seen from Mingo, and his potential to grow with Bryce Young is interesting long term. However, without a top-30 finish on his 2023 résumé, he’s not a player I’m considering starting this week.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft: The third-round rookie has been making his impact felt in this developing Packers passing game, and the Panthers aren’t exactly the type of defense that figures to slow that momentum.

Kraft has a 25+ yard catch in three of his past five games and has scored in two of four contests. This is a young offense that lacks a true target earner, thus leaving the door open for Kraft to see a handful of opportunities against arguably the worst team in the NFL.

Jordan Love may not inspire great amounts of confidence given his lack of consistency, but you’re going to notice that all of the TE streamers come with significant downside under center.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -2.5
• Total: 42.5
• Browns implied points: 20
• Texans implied points: 22.5

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: The rookie suffered a concussion in the Week 14 loss against the Jets, and the injury forced him to sit out last week. Based on average recovery times this season, it’s more likely than not that Stroud returns this week, just in time to face a physical Browns defense that has been a top-five pressure unit for the entirety of the season.

As good as Stroud has been this season, a light schedule certainly hasn’t hurt. He’s played three strong pass defenses at various points this season, and in those games, he’s completed just 54.3% of his passes with two scores on 94 attempts.

That’s not to say he can’t succeed in this spot, but expecting him to produce his seventh QB1 finish is an optimistic approach. I have him ranked on that fringe, though in a weak week for streaming QBs, I’m not recommending you pivot as much as I am that you keep your expectations in check.

Running Backs

Jerome Ford: Ford is the leader of this backfield (35-22 snap edge over Kareem Hunt in Week 15), but the snaps simply aren’t resulting in much work in the run game. Despite the RB1 role, Ford has five straight games with 12 carries or less, usage that is tough to count on changing down the stretch.

That said, he has caught at least three passes in four straight and has earned 5+ targets in four of his past five. Ford struggled last week to the tune of an RB44 finish, but he was RB14-23 in each of his six games prior, and that’s close to the range I rank him this week.

You can Flex Ford, even without access to much of a ceiling. Remember, not every player you start has to have week-winning upside.

Devin Singletary: Am I confident that Singletary repeats his 170-yard performance from last week in this tough matchup? Not even a little bit, but any player getting 30 touches this time of year is worthy of your attention.

This offensive line figures to struggle against this Cleveland front, something that has me betting against efficiency for Singletary in this spot. But with 16 targets over his past four games, he has a few paths to success.

The role appears to be safe (58 snaps while Dare Ogunbowale and Dameon Pierce combined for 19), and that lands him inside my top 30 at the position.

I caution against you reading too much into his big Week 15 (reminder that he followed up his last 100-yard game with three consecutive sub-70-yard games), but you have found yourself a viable Flex option over the likes of Gus Edwards or Brian Robinson.

Dameon Pierce: A promising rookie season seems like forever ago. If you’re still holding out hope for that form to be rediscovered, you’re not paying enough attention.

Pierce has not been a top-50 running back in three of his past four games and can safely be cut loose in all redraft formats.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: By scoring his first touchdown since Week 9, Coop turned in a WR13 finish last week against the Bears, snapping a streak of four straight games finishing outside of the top 30.

Efficiency remains a serious concern (50% catch rate or lower in four of his past five games), but I expect the volume of looks to outweigh that negative, given that 71.9% of yards gained against the Texans come through the air (fifth highest).

Cooper is a low-end WR2 or strong Flex play for me this week, depending on your roster settings.

Elijah Moore: The Flacco to Moore story was a good narrative to build given their shared time together in New York, but it’s not panning out. Moore saw a season-low three targets last week, and while this matchup doesn’t scare me, his role in a low-octane offense does.

Moore is firmly off of my radar when it comes to waiver wire adds to stash on the back end of my roster at this point in the season.

Nico Collins: A bulky calf kept Collins out last week, but I do think he shifts right back into the WR1 role in this offense when he is deemed healthy. How advantageous is that role you ask?

Over their last eight games, the Browns have seen the opposing WR1 earn 29.2% of the targets. We saw Noah Brown thrive in this role last week while Tank Dell and Collins did in weeks prior.

I’m not sold that this offense can produce multiple starting WRs in this matchup, but their top receiver figures to get every opportunity, and, right now, I’m labeling Collins as that guy!

Noah Brown: The supersized receiver forced overtime last week with a late touchdown and thrived in the WR1 role with Collins out (32.4% target share). In fact, Brown had three more catches than any of his teammates had targets against the Titans, on his way to posting his third top-15 performance in a five-game stretch.

MORE: Tate’s Week 16 Waiver Wire Rankings — Top Targets Include Chase Brown and Noah Brown

Of course, he was held without a catch in the two exceptions during that five-game sample size. With Collins expected back, I’m regressing Brown’s role in a significant enough way to land him outside of my top 30 in this tough matchup.

That’s not to say that there isn’t a path to play him. But I’m tempted to look elsewhere in most spots to get myself away from his low floor.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Acrobatic plays in the end zone, YAC plays down the stretch — Njoku is peaking at the perfect time for fantasy managers. In the five games since Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the remainder of the season, Njoku has vacuumed in 52 targets and looks the part of the top pass catcher in this offense.

The targets are nice, but it is his ability to make those targets count that has elevated close to must-start territory. He has a 30+ yard grab in consecutive games after having one such catch prior this season, showcasing his ability to give balance to this offense.

If you’ve been riding Njoku of late, there are no signs pointing to significant regression coming.

Dalton Schultz: The presumption is that Stroud is back for this game, and while the matchup isn’t ideal, a high-pressure defense can result in a high number of checkdown passes. What better way to welcome a banged-up quarterback than with some easy completions in an offense that struggles to run the ball?

Schultz’s aDOT this season is roughly 30% shorter than that of either primary receiver, putting him in position to record enough volume to be locked into fantasy lineups. We saw him earn a 29.2% target share against another strong pass defense in the Saints, and usage anywhere near that gives Schultz more of a ceiling than most at the position.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Jaguars -1
• Total: 43.5
• Jaguars implied points: 22.3
• Buccaneers implied points: 21.3

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: After four straight usable weeks, Lawrence finished as QB21 last week in a tough spot against the Ravens. His health (head/ankle) has him sitting as questionable this week, but if he clears all hurdles, I’m firing him up with my season on the line.

Only the Commanders allow more passing yards per game than the Buccaneers this season, a flaw that T-Law stands to exploit by extending his streak of games with over 255 passing yards to six straight.

Lawrence’s 41 rushing yards last week were a nice sign of health when it comes to his bulky ankle, and given the volume of late (93 pass attempts over past two games), the upside is appealing.

If the NFL correctly rules Lawrence’s pass to Calvin Ridley as a touchdown last week, there is less concern around his fantasy value this week.

I’m walking the walk on this one — I have Lawrence in a semifinal situation and am 100% planning on playing him with money on the line should he be active for this game.

Baker Mayfield: He gave QB streamers his best effort of the season against the Packers — 22 of 28 for 381 yards and four touchdowns — last week, giving him consecutive 20-point games (both top-12 finishes at the position) for the first time this season.

Was last week the exploitation of a good matchup or a sign of things to come? Probably more the former, but taking good form into a matchup against a strong offense is about as good of an outlook as you can hope for at this point.

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 16

A ceiling game like this is unlikely to be repeated in a more difficult matchup, but with multiple TD passes in six of his past eight games, the floor is stable by streaming standards. And with Mayfield unlocking Chris Godwin (10 catches for 155 yards), there’s plenty of potential to chase.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne Jr.: With multiple catches in every single game this season and 4+ grabs in four straight, fantasy managers are getting the usage they expected — just not the ceiling production.

Etienne hasn’t posted a top-10 performance since the Week 9 bye and has finished outside the top 25 in half of those games. I’m not worried about his role and have confidence in this offense as a whole — you’re starting Etienne.

The Bucs have allowed multiple rushing scores in three of their past four games, and if we’re betting on a Jaguars player to help extend that streak, Etienne’s name sits atop the list.

Rachaad White: Any ballot for fantasy MVP this season should have White’s name on it. He just continues to build out his case with a touchdown in six of his past seven games.

The versatility has been there all season long, so it’s the three straight 20-carry games that has me thinking the best could be yet to come. White has been a top-10 RB in all three of those games and is putting together a season that his fantasy managers won’t soon forget.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley: After Zay Jones made his initial return to action and Ridley rattled off consecutive top-10 finishes, the latter hasn’t been a top-40 receiver in three straight.

Between dropped passes and missed calls, the argument could certainly be made that Ridley is closer to strong value than his raw numbers suggest. I’m willing to bet on him in the right spot.

The Bucs have won three straight, but they’ve been gashed by a young WR in each of those contests (Jonathan Mingo, Drake London, and Jayden Reed). Based on that, plus Ridley’s talent and usage, is why I’m willing to Flex him.

It’s a leap of faith to a degree, but I get a talented receiver with limited target competition for a motivated team, with (hopefully) their franchise QB under center.

There are worst dice to roll this time of year.

Zay Jones: With Ridley struggling to produce over the past three weeks, Jones’ average finish has been WR38, which is the range I have him this week as long as Lawrence is active.

This is an advantageous matchup, but we’ve yet to really see Jones do much with his opportunities — 30 targets for 166 yards and zero touchdowns over those aforementioned three games). If you’re flexing him, it’s more a bet on this offense as a whole in this spot than it is confidence in Jones himself.

Mike Evans: If you’ve been riding the Evans’ wave all season long, you’re not pivoting now. His five catches for 65 yards over the past two weeks have been disappointing, but let’s not forget that he averaged six grabs and 104.5 receiving yards in the four games prior to this recent slump.

The TD equity is simply too much to overlook and has landed Evans as a top-30 receiver in eight of his past nine games. You’re playing him without much of a second thought.

Chris Godwin: If Godwin hasn’t completely tanked your season, he’s turning things around down the stretch with a 41.1% target share over his past two games.

Be careful. His high usage has come while Evans is struggling.

Betting on Godwin to produce is a two-leg parlay — you’re betting on Evans’ target share to not bounce back AND for Godwin to be effective with the chances he gets.

The latter has been an issue for the majority of his season and has been trending in the wrong direction for a few years now.

2020: 1.87 points per target
2021: 1.46 points per target
2022: 1.19 points per target
2023: 1.12 points per target

Godwin shares a tier this week with both Ravens receivers and Brandin Cooks for me, a spot that lands him just outside of my top 30 at the position.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Last week was ugly for all involved in Jacksonville’s offense, but Engram did continue his season-long streak of games with 4+ receptions. The ceiling that we saw from him in Week 14 against the Browns (11 catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns) isn’t what you’re paying for — you’re paying for an elevated floor that isn’t going to submarine your semifinal matchup.

You can continue to count on Engram. He should bounce back in a significant way against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense.

Cade Otton: I love the consistently elite snap shares, but at some point, Otton needs to turn opportunity into production to be of interest to us. He hasn’t seen more than five targets in five straight games, and with Godwin showing signs of life, the path to volume simply isn’t there.

I realize that Otton was targeted on the doorstep against the Packers last week and that he has a 20+ yard catch in three of his past four games. But the fourth option in a Mayfield-led offense isn’t of interest to me with my fantasy season on the line, no matter my TE situation.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

• Spread: Bears -4
• Total: 44.5
• Cardinals implied points: 20.3
• Bears implied points: 24.3

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: We’ve seen splash plays from Murray since returning from injury, and it’s enough to sell me on using him in this spot against a Bears defense that is stronger against the run than the pass.

Has Murray been sporadic? Sure, but with 45+ opportunities in two of his past three games, the upside is borderline elite.

MORE: Tate’s ROS Quarterback Rankings

He has yet to throw for multiple scores in a game this season, but with over 68% of TDs scored against Chicago coming through the air (fifth highest), that flaw could get ironed out and pave the way for a ceiling performance.

Murray is a top-10 play for me and a starter in all formats. That said, his floor is a little concerning, which is why he is my second favorite QB in this game …

Justin Fields: The profile of Fields is nearly identical to that of Murray, but I’d rather oppose the Cardinals’ defense that struggles to get home (4.4% QB contact rate, easily the lowest rate in the league).

Fields has just three TD passes in four games since returning from the thumb injury (133 pass attempts), but the opportunity count (47 per game over his past three) is too high to ignore given his unique skill set. His finishes since returning:

Week 11 at Lions: QB8
Week 12 at Vikings: QB24
Week 14 vs. Lions: QB3
Week 15 at Browns: QB26

He has largely handled good matchups well this season. Prior to the injury, he was the best QB in fantasy during a Week 5 meeting with the Commanders, which came on the heels of being QB3 against the Broncos.

I think that’s what we’re looking at here, and it gives me confidence in ranking Fields safely inside of my top 10.

Running Backs

James Conner: The veteran has posted consecutive RB1 finishes thanks to some splash plays (29 and 44-yard runs) that I wasn’t sure we’d see from Conner this time of year with him now north of 1,300 career touches.

The front four is certainly the strength of this Chicago defense. That has me dinging Conner’s rank a touch, but not enough to knock his volume (42 touches over the past two weeks) outside of my RB2 tier.

Players like De’Von Achane and Austin Ekeler offer more juice per touch than Conner, but how sold are you on their touch count? I have Conner a tick ahead of both and am playing him where I have him, even in a less-than-ideal matchup.

Roschon Johnson: The rookie is slowly trending in the right direction, but I fear that we are going to run out of time for it to really matter. Johnson led the team in rushing yards against the Browns with 36, but he was one of four Bears with at least five rushing attempts, giving us a “if you have many, you have none” situation.

The six targets he saw is the thread Johnson truthers are holding onto and the only reason I have him ranked as a top-40 play this weekend. The Bears have produced just two top-25 RB performances over their past seven games, and there simply isn’t enough clarity when it comes to role to assume those struggles end this week.

Johnson is pretty clearly my favorite Chicago back this week. Or, maybe more accurately, he’s the option in that backfield that I dislike the least.

Khalil Herbert: Six carries for eight yards last week in Cleveland was … well, it was better than D’Onta Foreman.

“Damning with faint praise” comes to mind after reading that line. This summer, I thought Herbert was a strong option due to his path to work in a potentially versatile offense, and for a little while there, that take seemed reasonable.

That’s no longer the case. There isn’t much reason to hold onto him at this point. Is there anything he could do this week that would earn him starting lineup consideration next week?

The answer is a pretty clear no for me.

D’Onta Foreman: Chicago’s Week 15 starting running back produced a stat line that was about as confusing as Chandler Bing’s job title.

Six carries. Negative six yards. Zero targets.

Yep, playing your humble author as your Flex option would have been a far superior option. He did get five of six goal-line snaps, but that’s a useless role if Foreman can’t get past the line of scrimmage.

I’m not going act like I have a great feel as to how the touches are going to be distributed in this backfield to end this season, but much like in Herbert’s case, I can tell you that there is essentially nothing Foreman can do this week that would impact my decision-making for next.

Under that premise, using his roster spot to stash a defense or handcuff an RB in an offense with more potential is a good idea.

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: Hollywood has been battling a heel injury that cost him the second half of last week’s game and is likely to sideline him this week as head coach Jonathan Gannon made more of a point to shoot down the idea that Brown would land on IR than update his status for this week.

After Trey McBride (10 catches for 102 yards), the target distribution in this passing attack was about as spread out as any in the league last week against the 49ers. There were not one, not two, but eight players who saw 3-4 targets, putting us in a spot where we can trust exactly none of them to fill the “WR1” role that Brown was holding in title only.

Brown has one top-50 finish since Week 8. Yet, there is one receiver on this roster that piques my interest if you’re looking for a holiday miracle sort of vibe on your roster …

Michael Wilson: The 6’2” rookie returned from a neck injury last week after missing the previous three games, and while the Hall of Fame likely isn’t looking for film off the three targets he earned that didn’t result in a single catch against the 49ers, there’s some Hail Mary hope.

Wilson ran a route on 88.9% of Murray’s dropbacks. With his aDOT up 22.7% from last season, there’s an avenue for Wilson to make a splash play against a Bears defense that sees a league-high 75% of opponents’ yardage gained through the air.

He doesn’t deserve to be ranked as a top-50 receiver in season-long settings. And I can’t imagine rolling the dice like this in a semifinal situation that you worked all year to get yourself qualified for.

But if you’re out of the mix in your season-long league and looking for a DFS punt play (check out Thursday’s DFS podcast for more!) — you’re getting a high upside weapon with very little ownership who is in a good spot.

I’m just sayin’.

DJ Moore: Fantasy managers were left wanting more from Moore last week in Cleveland (four receptions, 52 yards), but from a process standpoint, there’s nothing actionable to take away from that underwhelming stat line.

Last week was the fifth straight game in which Chicago’s ace receiver saw at least eight targets (ninth time in 11 games), and he was, on average, WR14 for the four games prior to the slow Week 15.

I have Moore as a low-end WR1 in this matchup against the third-worst per-attempt pass defense in the NFL. This offense is geared for him to get his fair share of looks, and this matchup is as favorable as you could ask for.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: If you extend McBride’s past five games for an entire season, he would finish with 129 catches and 1,445 yards. The second-year breakout star has surpassed all expectations this season and has as promising of a long-term outlook as anyone at the position.

McBride is a top-five option for me at the position this week, and I may not be high enough. You’re riding the value you got in acquiring him, and it may net you a championship!

Cole Kmet: While I have my concerns about the quality of Kmet’s opportunities, there’s no denying that his volume is impressive, and it lands him as a top-15 tight end for me in this spot.

Kmet only managed 23 yards in Cleveland last week, but he finished with 10.8 half-PPR fantasy points, enough to satisfy fantasy managers. He’s seen at least six targets in three straight games and in six of his past seven — you could do worse.

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

• Spread: Dolphins -1.5
• Total: 51.5
• Cowboys implied points: 25
• Dolphins implied points: 26.5

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: I think we can safely ignore what happened last week in Buffalo — a game where the Cowboys were bullied and held the ball for under 25 minutes.

Was that game concerning for Dallas’ big-picture hopes? It was, but it doesn’t impact how I’m viewing him as a fantasy commodity this week, which is as a top-five QB.

Prescott had seven straight games with multiple TD passes prior to the disaster last week, and I think he has a good chance to rediscover that form in this spot. Dak has 20+ rushing yards in two of his past three games after posting just two such performances this season prior, giving him a path to a few bonus points when it matters most for you.

Tua Tagovailoa: Not all good QB performances are viable for fantasy, and Tagovailoa’s Week 15 was more proof of that. He completed 21 of 24 passes without Tyreek Hill active in a difficult matchup, but 22 quarterbacks finished the week with more fantasy points.

Don’t get me wrong, there is still plenty of risk in this profile. But last week was more encouraging from a projection standpoint than his fantasy-point total hints at.

This season, Tagovailoa has as many top-10 finishes as he does weeks checking in outside of the top 20 (five apiece). The fact that he has completed over 69% of his passes in five straight games is encouraging and should give you enough confidence to rank him as a top-12 option in this spot.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: I thought he ran just fine last week in Buffalo (11 carries for 52 yards), but Dallas trailing for every one of their 57 offensive snaps made it a tough script for Pollard to pay off our pregame optimism.

Prior to the ugly Week 15 game, Pollard had been a top-20 RB in four straight games. I expect him to assume that form this week with the game being more competitive. He remains the clear lead back in an offense that we trust to be in scoring position on a consistent basis — that’s a profile I’m comfortable in investing in with my fantasy fate on the line.

Rico Dowdle: Is his destiny to be 2022 Tony Pollard for the 2024 Cowboys working behind Tony Pollard? That could well be the case, but we’ll dive into that situation over the winter months.

For now, Dowdle’s talent doesn’t have a path to anything close to consistent production.

65-18-47-26-43-21-60

Those are Dowdle’s positional finishes over his past seven. There are a few viable weeks in there, but given the scary numbers that pop up every other game, counting on the rookie in a must-win setting is a risk I’m not willing to take.

Raheem Mostert: There are a ton of elite running backs that will go through their career without a four-game stretch in which they score seven times. Mostert has done it twice in a single season and is the proud owner of the Dolphins’ single-season scrimmage TD record now with 20.

In the shutout win over the Jets last week, Mostert provided strong fantasy value without efficiency (2.8 ypc) or versatility (his two targets resulted in one yard). He’s relying on scoring, but he’s doing it in an elite role with arguably the most potent offense on the planet.

Mostert has been held to single-digit yards receiving in eight straight games, which gives him access to a floor that is lower than other RBs ranked alongside him. As long as you’re aware that his role isn’t bulletproof, there’s no reason to consider Mostert as anything less than an RB1.

His average positional finish in his past three games with a healthy De’Von Achane is RB10, and Mostert projects to keep that value this week, even in a difficult matchup.

De’Von Achane: Father Time is undefeated, and the win rate of volume isn’t far behind.

As good as Achane is, the rookie only has one game with more than 12 touches since the 70-point rout over the Broncos. That has left the door open for him to not return the value he was providing managers with early in the season (consecutive finishes outside of the top 25).

This is exactly why fantasy analysts preach volume while NFL analysts focus on raw talent. Achane is still very much a valuable piece to what the Dolphins want to do, but they aren’t interested in making him a fantasy superstar. Rather, they want to blend their backfield in the way they see best fit to win football games.

MORE: Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane Start/Sit Week 16

Achane remains a low-end fantasy starter due to do one-touch upside that he has flashed on multiple occasions, but his role isn’t likely to change. He has struggled to return plus value in each of the past two weeks against strong run defenses, and with two more on tap to round out the fantasy season, I’m expecting more of the same.

Achane’s my RB25, ranking around struggling star RBs that may have less upside due to offensive limitations but own more consistent roles and paths to strong volume (Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler).

You’re playing Achane. However, banking on him to be the league winner that he looked like he could be back in the first month of the season isn’t something I’d recommend.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: We were close to getting a down performance from Lamb last week in the blowout loss, but a garbage time three-yard touchdown rush saved the day for those with him rostered in a must-win spot.

Even in a “down” game, Lamb caught seven balls and saw a 31.3% target share. That’s not a bad worst-case scenario for a player who owns an elite ceiling. Lamb hasn’t finished worse than WR19 in a single game since Week 5, making him one of the five most consistent performers in the game.

What we saw from the Cowboys last week was a blip on the radar. They’re going to bounce back sooner than later, and Lamb will return elite fantasy value when that occurs.

Brandin Cooks: After scoring in five of seven games and offering up strong WR2/Flex value, Cooks has turned 11 targets into 47 yards over the past two weeks in spots that were deemed favorable (vs. PHI, at BUF).

So what version of Cooks is the real version? I fear that the recent one is closer to what we can expect due to his high-end production coming on the back of efficiency as opposed to volume. For the season, he’s earned more than six targets just twice this season, making the floor production that we’ve seen of late not a serious outlier.

Cooks is flirting with the top 30 at the position in my ranks for this week. Given how Prescott has played for the most part over the last two months, there’s a path to production that matters. But without opportunity upside, the ceiling isn’t that of a week winner.

Tyreek Hill: The play for 2k took a hit last week as an ankle injury sidelined Hill for the win over the Jets. Cheetah needs to average 152.7 receiving yards over the final three weeks this season to become the first player with 2,000 in a season.

MORE: Tyreek Hill Injury Update — The Latest on Miami Dolphins Star WR

As good as he has been this year, he hasn’t had a three-game stretch like that since November 2020.

Jaylen Waddle: How would Waddle step up in a seemingly tough matchup with this passing game’s Batman out of the fold?

First half: 118 yards yards, touchdown, 41.2% target share

Yeah, I’d say he’s plenty capable of handling an extended role should he be called upon down the stretch.

There seems to be general optimism surrounding Hill, and that’ll return Waddle back to his WR2, which isn’t the end of the world when you consider that we’ve seen a secondary pass catcher earn double-digit targets against the Cowboys in three of their past four (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DeVonta Smith, and Curtis Samuel).

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: The second-year tight end was only able to give his fantasy managers 44 yards on eight targets in the blowout loss in Buffalo last week, but you’re overthinking things if you’re considering pivoting at the TE position.

Even in a down game, Ferguson finished with a 25% target share and accounted for 28.6% of Dallas receptions. He’s caught at least five passes in back-to-back-to-back games and should be considered a lineup lock — he’s my TE6 this week and lives in the second tier of the position for me.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

• Spread: Broncos -6.5
• Total: 34
• Patriots implied points: 13.8
• Broncos implied points: 20.3

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: As bad as things have been in New England this season (3-11), their defense hasn’t been the problem.

Fifth-fewest yards per play
Sixth-best red-zone defense
Eighth-fewest missed tackles

Wilson has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in half of his games this season (including four of his past five), and he’s been held to six or fewer rushing yards in three of his past five.

MORE: NFL Playoff Picture After Week 15

The fact that Wilson has a rushing score in three of his past four games has kept his fantasy point totals high enough to be considered a streaming option, but that’s not something I label as very sustainable.

Wilson is easily outside of my top 12 at the position and is not a player I am comfortable streaming this week.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson: The high ankle sprain has sidelined New England’s starting back in consecutive games, and I’m continuing to operate as if he is going to be inactive. If that changes, this piece will be updated with Stevenson leading a committee that lands both on the Flex radar. However, neither would be inside the top 20 due to a lack of role clarity.

Stevenson will be an interesting player to dive into this offseason to see if he can rediscover his 2022 form. But for now, I’m not counting on him helping managers down the stretch.

Ezekiel Elliott: In the two weeks since Stevenson’s injury, Elliott has managed to run for just 93 yards on 33 carries. Not a single one of those totes has gained more than 12 yards.

The lack of efficiency on the ground isn’t exactly new for Zeke and is something that figures to continue given his lack of explosion at this point in his career (his last 15-yard run came in October). That said, Elliott has caught 12 passes for 93 yards and a score in those two games.

He essentially has filled the exact fantasy-friendly role of Stevenson. Elliott has finished as RB1 and RB33 in his two weeks as New England’s lead back. Splitting the difference makes plenty of sense in this plus matchup where the Pats should be committed to the ground game for all four quarters.

Javonte Williams: Williams’ talent is going to shine eventually. I remain a long-term investor, but with just one finish better than RB24 since lighting up the Bills in Week 10, he clearly doesn’t have a ceiling that wins matchups.

That said, with multiple catches in 12 of 13 games this season and no real risk of game script limitations, Williams is an RB2 for me in this difficult matchup against the top per-carry run defense in the league.

If you’re like me and believe the Broncos win this game, you’re playing Williams. In Denver’s last five wins, he’s averaged 21.8 touches per game with three touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

Demario Douglas: I’m not putting a Patriots pass catcher into my playoff lineup if I can at all avoid it. That said, Douglas is a nice player to have on the end of your bench as a “break glass in case of emergency” option.

The slot target caught three of five targets for 33 yards last week in his return to action after missing a pair of games (concussion).

That production is unlikely to jump off the screen at you. However, he ran a route on 71.4% of New England’s dropbacks, an encouraging usage pattern that could land him on the very low-end PPR Flex conversation if you’re truly stuck.

The upside is low, and that’s not going to change. Douglas is the closest thing this team has to a chain-moving receiver, and that role can come with a reasonable floor. A reasonable floor that becomes appealing if you’re battling through injuries and low-floor deep-ball receivers.

Courtland Sutton: No touchdown last week? What in the world happened?

Even without a score, Sutton’s fantasy stock didn’t tank. He has 5+ catches or a touchdown in 12 of 14 games this season, and the two dud performances came at the hands of truly elite defenses (CLE and NYJ).

MORE: Fantasy WR Dynasty Rankings Week 16

The Patriots’ defense is certainly their strength. But I don’t put them in the same tier as those two units, giving me confidence in assuming that Sutton is good for at least 10 fantasy points this week — a stable floor that lands him inside my top 25.

Sutton has finished nine of 14 games as a top-30 receiver, a level of consistency that has resulted in massive profits given the price you paid back in August. I have Sutton ranked ahead of bigger names like Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, and Terry McLaurin with confidence.

Jerry Jeudy: The 74 yards he gave your bench last week against the Lions was his highest yardage total since Week 3, but I’m not reading it as something to get excited about.

Jeudy has failed to catch more than three passes in four straight games and has turned his 77 targets into just a single score. He has one top-30 finish on his 2023 résumé, and even that wasn’t the most encouraging of performances — two catches (Week 6 vs. KC).

You likely stopped starting Jeudy a month ago, and I’m not adjusting that strategy in this below-average matchup.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: One week after scoring twice against the Steelers, Henry set season highs in both catches and targets against the Chiefs. It should go without saying that betting on this Patriots offense isn’t for the faint of heart, but with the Broncos owning a bottom-10 opponent aDOT, Henry could post another impressive target share this week.

The floor is low due to the lack of projectable yardage (this was his first 60-yard game in over a calendar year), but you could say that about most TE streamers. If you’re forced to speculate at the position, the matchup and form of Henry make for a reasonable gamble.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

• Spread: Chiefs -10
• Total: 41.5
• Raiders implied points: 15.8
• Kansas City Chiefs implied points: 25.8

Quarterbacks

Aidan O’Connell: Box-score watchers will look back at Week 15 in an effort to see who is worthy of a roster spot and/or streaming. Those people will be drawn to O’Connell after his four-touchdown performance (34 attempts) on Thursday night against the Chargers.

Take a deep breath. He had four touchdown passes on his first 210 attempts this season and hasn’t flashed a fantasy-friendly profile. With just seven carries for 11 yards this season, versatility isn’t an option, and I’m happy to bet on the limitations of this offense as a whole as opposed to the single-spike performance.

O’Connell doesn’t deserve a spot on fantasy rosters.

Patrick Mahomes: It was another week with limited help from his supporting cast, but Mahomes did throw for 305 yards last week in New England, his first game reaching that threshold since lighting the Chargers on fire for 424 yards in the Week 7 win.

Can we count on the Chiefs winning this game? Over their past six wins, Mahomes has posted:

74.6% completion rate
299.8 passing yards per game
2.2 touchdown passes

I think we could see that level of production this week, and that would land him in the top five at the position, which is where I have him ranked. He has had a 290-yard, two-touchdown game against the Raiders in every year of his starting career, a threshold he hit in their first meeting this season, and has a great shot at doing again with his starting RB expected back.

Early in the season, Mahomes’ rushing production helped stabilize his fantasy floor, but that seems to be a thing of the past (under 10 rushing yards in three of his past four games). In a perfect world, we see that tick back up with the Chiefs playing for seeding.

Mahomes is deserving of your fantasy trust.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: A quad injury sidelined Jacobs for Vegas’ record-setting win, his first missed action since Week 3, 2021. Does he push through to face a Chiefs team that he produced 125 yards and a touchdown against in Week 12?

Only time will tell, but if the team does elect to play him, I’d be comfortable targeting his 20.8 touches per game as an RB2.

Zamir White: He was the preferred option in this backfield with Jacobs out, as he earned the start and out-snapped Ameer Abdullah 45-17.

The flow of Week 15’s win obviously played in White’s favor, but he did his part to take advantage (20 touches for 85 yards and a touchdown). It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to forecast a less favorable script this week, though if Jacobs remains sidelined, White did establish himself as the next best option.

If he is again positioned to start, he’ll rank just behind the likes of Najee Harris (at IND) and D’Onta Foreman (vs. ARI) — other lead backs with offensive question marks around them.

Isiah Pacheco: The shoulder injury kept Pacheco sidelined last week, and his status is one you need to keep an eye on (all signs up to this point are pointing in the right direction). He caught all five of his targets and ran for a pair of touchdowns in the first meeting with the Raiders — success I think he could replicate if deemed fully healthy.

MORE: Will Isiah Pacheco Play in Week 16?

In that game, none of his carries gained more than eight yards, and yet, he was still able to hand a big number on them. Neither Clyde Edwards-Helaire nor Jerick McKinnon has done enough over the past two weeks to take significant work off the plate of Pacheco upon his return — if he’s active for the Chiefs, he’s active for you.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: In two games with an expanded role, CEH has averaged under 3.2 yards per carry (2.4 YPC if you remove a single outlier run). He’s made the most of eight targets in those two games (93 receiving yards with a touchdown), but that’s not his path to getting on the field when Pacheco is back in the fold.

In the win over the Patriots, Edwards-Helaire held a 40-22 snap edge over Jerick McKinnon and even ran four more routes. The team has wanted him to provide balance, but he has been unable to do so.

This matchup would land him in the Flex conversation should he be in position to start again, but should Pacheco return, CEH isn’t in the zip code of starting fantasy lineups.

Jerick McKinnon: It’s hard not to feel nostalgic; McKinnon scored eight times in six games to end last regular season and has four in his past four games at the moment. Everyone concerns themselves with the “De-Hember” stuff for Derrick Henry, but I’m one game away from having the “Winnin’ Time? Call McKinnon” T-shirts printed.

That said, I’m not counting on it. His next game with more than seven touches this season will be his first, and he only has one 20-yard catch this season. I like the fact that he has a 78% catch rate and that he was used in a creative manner inside the 10-yard line, but the role is too thin if Pacheco returns.

Should Pacheco sit, he’s a desperation Flex play at best. If you’re going in this direction, you’re betting on the Chiefs’ offense figuring things out more than you are betting specifically on McKinnon — he’s shown us very little to buy into this season.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: We still are nowhere near peak Adams from his days in Green Bay or even last season, but with 10+ targets in four of his past five games, Vegas’ WR1 is performing like a WR1 in fantasy at the perfect time.

It should be noted, however, that the lone exception over that stretch was the first meeting with these Chiefs.

Week 10 vs. New York Jets: 13 targets (52% target share)
Week 11 at Miami Dolphins: 13 (34.2%)
Week 12 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 7 (21.9%)
Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings: 10 (34.5%)
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 12 (35.3%)

Should that concern you? I think so, yeah. The Chiefs have seen three alpha receivers other than Adams since the beginning of November (Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs), and despite them earning a combined 27.8% target share, they managed just 13 grabs for 94 yards.

If the scoring equity is inherently limited due to this offense (yes, I realize talking down a team that just scored 63 points seems counterintuitive, but this is the same framework that hung a big goose egg in Week 14) and the yardage upside is capped due to how the Chiefs defend, how confident can you be in a big day?

I’m not suggesting Adams gives you coal on Christmas, but I’d be surprised if he gave you anything close to the 20.1 half-PPR points that he offered up last week.

Jakobi Meyers: He pulled a rabbit out of his hat last week, scoring on one of his four targets and throwing a touchdown pass, but the concerns remain. After seeing 10+ targets in four of six games to open the season, Meyers hasn’t cleared seven in a game since.

He has only one catch gaining more than 25 yards this season (it did come against these Chiefs at least), making him a tough sell when it comes to quality or quantity in the target department. With under 40 air yards in four of his past six games, you’re relying on a touchdown for a WR2 in an offense with a low implied total.

Meyers’ season stat line makes him look like a chocolate chip cookie on Santa’s plate that you’re ready to test for quality control. This week, I fear he’ll prove to be an oatmeal raisin: A disappointment for what you built up in your head.

I love Meyers and will be playing him in spots where I don’t have other options because of how I built my team, but he’s far from a lineup lock.

Tre Tucker: The rookie out of Cincinnati turned four targets into three catches, 59 yards, and two scores in the 42-point win over the Chargers last Thursday night. If you’re sorting your waiver wire by Week 15 fantasy point total, Tucker will pop up on your radar — don’t sweat it.

We’re talking about a 5’9” that is, at best, the third option in an O’Connell-led offense. A receiver that totaled 1,426 yards and eight TDs in his collegiate career. This is not the time to get cute; you can feel fine leaving Tucker on your waiver wire.

Rashee Rice: Rice’s talent was obvious back in November, and the confidence this team has shown in him of late has made for a perfect storm. The rookie has caught at least seven passes in four straight games, scoring in three of them and boasting an 81% catch rate for the season.

It’s a badge of honor when you are the featured target of an Andy Reid back-of-napkin red-zone play, and Rice checked that box last week as he “caught” a shovel pass in traffic from McKinnon and finished it off with a score.

MORE: Rashee Rice Climbing Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings

If you were to extend Rice’s production over the past month for an entire season, we are talking about 136 catches for 1,420 yards and 13 TDs. How good is that? That stat line is worth 11.7 more fantasy points than Davante Adams’ swan song in Green Bay.

Lock in Rice and enjoy the immense profit you’re getting based on your investment — acquiring his services for next season will be much more expensive and is something I’ll dive into for my 2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft piece that will publish once all fantasy leagues conclude.

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: The touchdown and 80% catch rate from last week look promising, but so does just about everything from the 63-21 dismantling of the Chargers. Mayer hasn’t reached 50 yards since the middle of October and has just one game with more than five targets earned.

The future is bright for this Golden Domer, but the future isn’t right now when it comes to fantasy stardom. You can do better at the TE position, even if you’re relying on streaming in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Travis Kelce: The season-ending stats deserve to be brought back up. I posted them a few weeks ago in this space more in jest, but maybe there’s more to it than I was giving them credit for.

2021: Under 35 yards in four of his final five regular season games
2022: Six straight games without a TD to end his regular season
2023: Four straight games without a TD, 5.2 catches/game since Nov. 1

Kelce did see multiple end-zone targets last week in New England — if he catches one of them, we have far fewer people on the internet looking for Taylor Swift-based links to the tip in production from this Chiefs offense.

You’re not getting cute and doing anything as a result of these struggles. The growth of Rice should result in more defensive attention being paid his way, something that should open up Kelce to bounce back.

I hope.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

• Spread: Eagles -10.5
• Total: 43
• Giants implied points: 16.3
• Eagles implied points: 26.8

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Monday night wasn’t exactly a Jordan Flu game for Hurts, but it should serve as a reminder as to why Hurts is nothing short of an elite fantasy asset.

In a game in which he completed just 17 of his 31 passes and didn’t have a 20-yard completion for the first time since Halloween of 2021 — he still finished the week as the fifth-highest-scoring quarterback in the game.

Josh Allen and Hurts are alone in my top tier at the position in similarly favorable spots as heavy favorites.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: That’s now twice in three games in which Barkley handled 13 or fewer touches, putting his primary path to fantasy production in this brutal offense in question entering a matchup with a strong run defense.

His average finish this season in Giants losses is outside of the top 25 at the position, and I fear that we could see that average prove accurate in this spot. Due to the extended week and single-play upside, Barkley remains an RB2 for me, but your expectations for him now certainly don’t match what they were when you drafted him this summer.

D’Andre Swift: The Giants are the third-worst per-carry run defense in the NFL, which is why you’re playing Swift. You’re betting on this Eagles offense as a whole and that Swift is the RB1 (41-28 snap edge over Kenneth Gainwell last Monday night).

You’re betting on a spot and a role more than a player. Swift has four straight weekly finishes outside of the top 25 fantasy running backs, with his longest gain in December being a mere 11 yards.

His role in the passing game is trending in the wrong direction, and I’m not sure we see that change down the stretch of the regular season. That said, he continues to be featured on the ground (75% of RB carries last week in Seattle), and that’s enough in this spot with Philadelphia being a heavy favorite.

Kenneth Gainwell: He’s annoying to Swift managers, but don’t mistake that usage as something that holds fantasy value by itself. Gainwell has scored twice on his 92 touches this season and hasn’t cleared eight touches in a game since Week 2.

He ran one more route than Swift last week and is going to take food off his plate but not nearly enough to justify being rostered with any expectations beyond that of a handcuff that you’re using as depth.

Wide Receivers

Darius Slayton: The burner saw a season-high eight targets with Darren Waller back in the mix, potentially a sign of things to come now that the Giants have multiple threats in the short passing game.

Or maybe not. Slayton doesn’t have a 70-yard game on his resume this season and has scored just eight touchdowns in 59 games since scoring eight times in 14 games as a rookie. He’s my highest-ranked Giants WR this week, and if he is the answer to the questions you’re asking, you’re asking the wrong questions.

A.J. Brown: I don’t care that Brown hasn’t been a top-20 receiver in four of five games since the bye. He’s seen double-digit targets in a career-best three straight games and faces a bottom-10 red-zone defense that blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league.

Need I say more? That matchup profile gives him elite scoring equity along with big splash play potential when New York leaves a corner on an island with him in an effort to speed up Hurts. Brown is my top-ranked receiver this week — lock him in and watch the points pile up!

DeVonta Smith: He came up short last week, along with the rest of Philadelphia’s offense, but he had been trending up (70+ yards in four straight games prior to Week 15) since the bye, closing the production between he and Brown.

I still prefer Brown to Smith this week, but you’re playing both with the utmost confidence. Is there a world in which the Eagles dominate from start to finish, similar to what the Bills did last week to the Cowboys and offer little value through the air?

Of course that could happen, but if your primary concern is how a given offense is going to score rather than if they are going to score, you’re dealing with the problems of a rich roster. Must be nice!

The last time the G-Men faced a player who has spent much of this season in the MVP conversation was Week 10 in Dallas.

CeeDee Lamb: 11 receptions for 151 yards and a TD (31.8% target share)
Brandin Cooks: 9 receptions for 173 yards and a TD (22.7% target share)

I’m not saying that Brown and Smith combine for that level of production as much as I’m highlighting that a truly elite performance through the air is certainly possible in this spot.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: After missing five straight games, Waller essentially split the routes with Daniel Bellinger, and he finished participating on 46.8% of New York dropbacks. Earning a target on 27.3% of his routes was good to see and makes him a low-end streaming option against a vulnerable Eagles secondary that will be on short rest if you’re in a bind.

MORE: Tate’s ROS Tight End Rankings

That said, he’s a blobber, one with a lot of talent and in a good spot, but also one that comes with little overall offensive upside and no motivation to extend a veteran TE who is signed through 2026 (unless the Giants opt to swallow the dead cap hit after this season).

Dallas Goedert: In his two games back from missing over a month, Goedert has shown some signs of the potential that had him labeled as a Tier 3 tight end entering the season.

He caught all four of his targets in his return to action in Week 14 against the Cowboys and posted a 30% target share on Monday night in Seattle.

We’ve seen a pair of TEs establish themselves late in the season in Isaiah Likely and David Njoku, a development that has knocked Goedert just outside of my top 10 at the position this week.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: 49ers -5.5
• Total: 46
• Ravens implied points: 20.3
• 49ers implied points: 25.8

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Fantasy managers have a right to be annoyed with how this season has played out for Jackson. He is pulling the strings for a top-five offense in yards per play, points per play, and points per game — yet through 15 weeks, he only has five finishes better than fantasy’s ninth-best QB.

His completion percentage has fallen off a cliff since the Mark Andrews injury (under 60% complete in all three of those games after completing 69.5% of his passes prior) and without extreme efficiency, the production is going to continue to underwhelm.

That said, he has 34 carries over his past three games, and that allows us to remain hopeful.

You’re not pivoting off of Jackson at this point in the season. We did see him produce big numbers in his only other road game this season, which came against an elite defense — Week 4 at CLE: 15 of 19 for 186 yards and two scores to go along with 27 rushing yards and another two touchdowns — a testament to how unique his skill set is.

Jackson has access to a ceiling that few do, and that should keep him in fantasy lineups, regardless of the opposition.

Brock Purdy: I’ll leave the raw talent scouting of Purdy to our NFL team — I’m in the production business, and there is no denying what the MVP front-runner is doing.

10 TD passes over the past three weeks
Top-six finisher in five of six weeks following the bye
40+ yard completion in six of his past seven games

Despite not having thrown more than 31 passes in a game since September, Purdy gets it done almost every week. Talking heads will argue as to why he is succeeding (9.9 yards per pass; no player has reached 10.0 since the much-discussed 1954 season of Norm Van Brocklin), but we are well past the point of calling his weekly production an aberration.

The Ravens’ defense is coming off of an elite performance (4.5 yards per play and zero points if you remove a single coverage breakdown) and is capable of slowing Purdy to some degree, but not enough to knock him outside of my top 10. Not even close.

Running Backs

Keaton Mitchell: The rookie out of East Carolina was doing what we’ve come to expect from him since Halloween (11 touches for 88 yards), but a knee injury ended both his game and his season.

His name is clearly one to keep track of for next season. J.K. Dobbins is set to become an unrestricted free agent, and Mitchell’s splash-play ability (8.7 yards per touch) seemed to very much complement what Jackson does well as the leader of this Todd Monken offense.

You can cut ties with him in redraft formats — we were robbed late Sunday night of a potential waiver wire league winner.

Gus Edwards: He is set to assume the lead duty in this potent offense due to the Mitchell injury, and with 11 scores this season, he should be viewed as a low-end RB2 this week, even in a difficult matchup.

MORE: Should Justice Hill Be Picked Up?

The touchdown equity isn’t going anywhere, though he needs to find paydirt to matter due to his lack of versatility (29 catches in 66 career games) and recent struggles with efficiency (under 3.5 yards per carry over his past five games).

2023 average finish when he scores: RB12
2023 average finish when he doesn’t score: RB43

Justice Hill: He should get his fair share of snaps with Mitchell sidelined, but without a definitive role in an offense that includes a touchdown savant in Edwards and an explosive runner in Jackson, Hill’s path to the Flex conversation remains cloudy.

Christian McCaffrey: Fantasy’s top asset is pretty darn good when the defense commits to guarding him — he’s really good when the defense fails to cover him!

CMC lit up the Cardinals for 187 yards and three scores, giving him 364 yards and seven scores against Arizona this season. Sadly, you’re not allowed to play the same opponent three times in a single regular season, so I can’t promise you this sort of slate-breaking effort from McCaffrey this week in a much more difficult matchup.

There’s not much to say here, McCaffrey is inevitable. Following the conclusion of this fantasy season, I’ll be piecing together a 2024 fantasy mock draft, and I anticipate his name being atop that draft board.

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers: After scoring in consecutive games, Flowers gave us just seven yards against the Jaguars on his two targets. The rookie has shown flashes of talent that make him an interesting dynasty piece, but counting on him right now is more risk than I’m willing to absorb.

Flowers doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 21 yards in six of his past seven games, and the volume angle is weak with this team ranking bottom-five in pass attempts for the second consecutive season. Flowers is sitting just outside of my top 30 for the week and carries a floor that is more damning than his upside is rewarding.

Odell Beckham Jr.: To call Beckham’s production inconsistent during this win streak would be a drastic misuse of the word.

Week 11 vs. CIN: 116 yards on seven targets
Week 12 at LAC: 34 yards on five targets
Week 14 vs. LAR: 97 yards on 10 targets
Week 15 at JAX: 14 yards on three targets

I find it unlikely that we get the consistency for which we yearn, and this spot profiles as another potential stumbling block (sixth-best per-attempt pass defense).

The injury to Mitchell could result in a slightly pass-heavier scheme, but considering the fact that Jackson has failed to complete 20 passes in four of his past five games, there’s not enough volume in this offense to land OBJ inside of my top 30.

I’d rather play secondary receivers in Vegas, Dallas, or Tampa Bay this week with my season on the line.

Deebo Samuel: With eight of his 11 touchdowns this season coming over the past month, Samuel is looking to put “fantasy league-winner” on his resume as the 49ers chase a goal that some would argue is more important.

I, of course, am not a part of that group that prioritizes a Super Bowl over a magical late-season run that brings me fantasy glory. In order to do that, he’s going to have to penetrate the second-best red-zone defense in the league.

During this month-long scoring binge, five of Samuel’s seven scores have come inside the 20. My concern is natural regression, something that bothers the projection part of my brain but is nothing you realistically need to act on.

2023: TD on 8.7% of his targets
2019-22: TD on 5.4% of his targets

Samuel remains a top-10 play for me given how he is being used and where on the field he is getting his opportunities.

Brandon Aiyuk: That hot streak by Samuel has come at the expense of George Kittle and Aiyuk. Yes, he had 126 yards against the Seahawks in the Week 12 win, but that’s his only finish inside the top 20 of receivers over the past month after posting an average finish of WR14 in his three games beforehand.

Sadly, you just have to take the good with the bad when it comes to pass catchers in this offense. On the bright side, complete air balls like last week’s finish outside of the top 50 are rare — Aiyuk has been no worse than WR37 in his last 10 games.

This time of year, if I’m digesting content, I want the bullish case for my players, and I assume you’re the same! The Ravens have had some success in limiting alpha receivers of late (Chase and Ridley turned 19 targets into just 51 yards when facing Baltimore). If that’s the case and they label the red-hot Samuel as the featured target, Aiyuk could excel.

In the last two games in which Samuel saw fewer than six targets and was held under 100 yards, Aiyuk gave us 37.1 half-PPR points with unreal efficiency (4.1 points per target). I’m not projecting that, but he remains a locked-in WR2 with the potential to be the most productive pass catcher on this team in any given week.

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely: Can we stop it now? Likely was left on far too many waiver wires coming out of the Week 13 bye, and in the two games since, all he has done is reward those who made the addition with 10 catches on 13 targets for 153 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Whether it’s bailing Jackson out in times of stress or creative usage to leverage his size-speed combination, Likely is a certified top-10 tight end that you can feel good about playing.

MORE: Fantasy TE Start/Sit Week 16 — How Should You Handle Isaiah Likely?

Of course, this matchup isn’t great, and San Francisco’s low blitz rate could allow them to bracket Likely in a way that more aggressive defenses like the Rams and Jaguars have not done over the past two weeks.

There’s a floor concern with every TE in the sport, but Likely’s unique skill set and glove-like fit into this offensive scheme puts him in a good spot to be trusted at this critical juncture of your fantasy season.

George Kittle: I wish I could calm your nerves and tell you that the 49ers scoring 30 points and Kittle under-delivering was some sort of anomaly, but the fact of the matter is that games like this happen as often as the explosive performances — how lucky do you feel?

Last week in Arizona was the fifth time this season in which San Francisco scored 30 points and their star tight end gave us under 55 receiving yards. Of course, he has also hit 15 points on five occasions, weeks in which he gave you a massive edge over the opposition.

I don’t love this matchup, and that is why Kittle sits at TE8 in my Week 16 rankings, but at least he did run a route on 89.7% of Purdy’s dropbacks last week. Kittle’s name is on the short list of players likely to single-handedly determine the outcome of your semifinal matchup — for better or worse.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!