Kyle Soppe’s Week 15 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Outlooks for Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs, and Others

You’ve put in the hard work to get to this point in the season, and now’s the time to thrive. It’s time to trust the work you’ve put in and pull the right levers as you prepare to peak at the perfect time.

How do you do that? Out-working your opponent is a good place to start, and that work starts right here, right now. Below are my thoughts on every player that figures to matter in this critical week. If you have Flex questions, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @KyleSoppePFN. I like helping you win more than you like winning, I promise!

Bye Weeks: Over. Finally!

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: Raiders -3
• Total: 33.5
• Chargers implied points: 15.3
• Raiders implied points: 18.3

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Word came out Tuesday afternoon that Herbert opted for finger surgery and will miss the remainder of the season. Tough break for a promising young talent and an even tougher blow for fantasy managers invested in this offense. I’ve posted content this week breaking down the Week 15 QB streamers as well as a fantasy playoff outlook for Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: It was good to see Ekeler bounce back against the Broncos (100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown), but this offense has scored 23 points total over their past three games and will be turning Easton Stick for at least this week if not the remainder of the season.

Moving to Stick is a downgrade, and while Ekeler has slipped outside of my top 10 this week, I’m still playing him in all formats due to his versatility. He has seen at least six targets in six of his past nine games, a level of involvement that I think is sustainable.

While I think his floor is enough to land him in lineups, the ceiling isn’t that of a week-winner. Not close. He’s averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry and just 3.5% of his touches have finished in the end zone (down from 6.5% in his previous two seasons), a rate that figures to decline further before it increases with Stick under center.

Joshua Kelley: There were whispers entering Week 14 that Kelley’s number may be called more given the efficiency issues of Ekeler, but nothing came of it (three carries for six yards against Denver).

There are handcuff/backup running backs that are worth rostering at this point (Jordan Mason, Rico Dowdle, and Chase Brown to name a few) — Kelley is definitely not on that list.

Josh Jacobs: A late knee injury has Jacobs’ status in question for the 5-8 Raiders, and with the soon-to-be-26-year-old RB on a one-year deal, how motivated do we think he will be to push himself to the finish line with fantasy teams on his back?

He was struggling against the Vikings before his injury (13 carries for 34 yards), reinforcing a low floor that we’ve seen pop up at times this season. If you think the Raiders win this game and we get a clean bill of health, Jacobs should be viewed as an RB2 (RB13 average positional finish in Vegas’ past four wins).

MORE: Should You Start the Raiders RBs vs. the Chargers?

Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah are the secondary options who will fill the void if Jacobs is ruled out. White projects as the favorite to get the early-down work while Abdullah figures to hold the edge in the passing game — but how valuable is a split role in the 28th-ranked scoring offense?

Should Jacobs sit, I’ll have Abdullah just over White, but neither ranking in my top 30 at the position against a Chargers run defense that has quietly improved over the past month or so.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Welcome to the “we are great receivers but don’t have much help under center” club, Mr. Keenan Allen! We meet weekly and throw a party — it’s the only consistently above-average thing being thrown the participants’ way weekly, so we go all out.

Ja’Marr Chase has the gumbo connection, DeAndre Hopkins has us covered with barbecue, and Garrett Wilson likes to bring his black-and-white cookies, even though he ends up eating the majority of them.

Adam Thielen is big on supplying mimosas and bloody marys, so there’s never a lack of drinks to power through these rough weekends. Can we count on you for some of that Los Angeles Cobb salad?

MORE: Soppe’s Early Fantasy Week 15 WR Rankings

Even against a defense that is fifth-worst in terms of completion percentage, Allen would have been no better than a low-end WR2 this week. The veteran receiver had a 50% catch rate last week after hauling in 73.9% of his looks this season.

With him being ruled OUT for this game, this pass game takes another hit and any increase in value gained from an extra target or two is offset about a lowered team expectation when it comes to the ability to move the ball.

Joshua Palmer: The window was opened last week for Joshua Palmer — who had 7+ targets in each of his past four healthy games — to return from injured reserve, and now he is gearing up to return for an offense with little hope.

Palmer is a nice player and should walk right into the WR2 role in this offense given the lack of consistent development from Quentin Johnston, but after you adjust this offense for Stick playing QB and hand out targets to Ekeler, Allen, and the tight end position, what’s left?

Palmer move inside of my top 50 receivers this week following the Allen news and is my favorite Charger receiver, but that doesn’t make him worth your while this week. Quentin Johnston hauled in a 57-yard pass last week (he hadn’t had that many yards in an entire game prior), but his inability to earn targets on a consistent basis is my primary concern. I don’t mind the idea of rostering him to see if his usage spikes over the final month, but you’re adding and praying as opposed to rostering him with any realistic expectations.

Davante Adams: Seven catches for 53 yards isn’t a big game by any means, but in a game in which your team gets shut out, Adams delivered something of a best-case scenario last week against the Vikings.

Adams has seen 40 targets over his past four games with a trio of 30-yard catches over that run. It’s unlikely that he will produce at the level over the final month that you wanted from him this summer, but things are moving in the right direction, and he gets a team that easily ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in yards per pass.

You’re playing Adams, even if the ceiling isn’t all that high.

Jakobi Meyers: I’m encouraged by his 85% catch rate over his past four games, but with the volume trending down and the quality of looks also being a major question, Meyers has fallen outside of my top 30 (outside of the top 35 in three of those four games).

A handful of catches is a reasonable projection, and that can be enough to slide him into your Flex spot if you’re desperate, but with limited scoring equity as a secondary target in an offense that has cleared 21 points once this season — there’s more risk than reward in this profile.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr.: Week 14 was the Everett show in terms of playing time (46-15 edge in snaps and 34-12 in routes), and that is encouraging. At different points this season, the TE situation for the Chargers has been an even split where Parham’s role in the red zone made him the preferred fantasy option.

After seeing this usage, Everett is the Los Angeles TE I’m most comfortable streaming, but you can do better. He’s my TE19 this week, ranking behind Hunter Henry and Tyler Conklin, two widely available options.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Bengals -3.5
• Total: 39
• Vikings implied points: 17.8
• Bengals implied points: 21.3

Quarterbacks

Jake Browning: At his current per-start basis, Browning will set the all-time passing record in the final week of the 2041 regular season, so plan accordingly.

The rookie has looked remarkably comfortable, but are we really buying consecutive top-five finishes as anything predictive? I’m not. He posted a sub-five-yard aDOT in Week 13 and his big play last week was a dump-off pass that Chase Brown took 54 yards to the house.

CHASE IS ON THE CASE❕#Bengals rookie RB Chase Brown scores his first #NFL touchdown 💨#RuleTheJungle

pic.twitter.com/PAsX01vm7u

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 10, 2023

The Vikings are the fifth-best defense in terms of the fewest missed tackles per game, and that’s enough for me to lose interest in Browning at this point of the season. My QB21 ranking of him this week might prove to be low, but I feel good about slotting Browning behind Matthew Stafford, the QB I’m targeting if streaming the position is your only hope.

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler: Mattison is dealing with an ankle injury that cost him the final quarter-plus of Week 14, which deserves monitoring. While his health matters, the analysis doesn’t really change — I’m interested in the starting back in Minnesota.

The Bengals are a bottom-five run defense across the board, and they’ll be on short rest for a second consecutive week — a scheduling rarity since they played on Monday night in Week 13, Sunday in Week 14, and host the Vikings on Saturday this week.

MORE: Should You Start Alexander Mattison or Ty Chandler in Fantasy Football in Week 15?

Neither of these players is the type that is likely to win you your week, but with the lead role in an above-average offense, the starting RB deserves to be locked into lineups this weekend.

Joe Mixon: Brown’s stock is gaining momentum much the way Rico Dowdle’s is in Dallas, and that’s fine. But don’t confuse that as a knock on the starter.

Just like Tony Pollard, Mixon’s role (49 touches during these back-to-back wins) isn’t going anywhere, even with the success of his understudy. Mixon out-snapped Brown 38-18 in last week’s win over the Colts, a role advantage that I expect him to maintain for the remainder of the season.

I don’t think we’re looking at an efficient afternoon (3.8 yards per carry this season and the Vikings allow the fifth-fewest ypc this season), but with 15-18 carries and likely 4-6 targets, Mixon’s status is locked in as an RB2.

Chase Brown: The rookie out of Illinois has racked up 166 yards on 20 touches over the past two weeks, showcasing juice that this backfield has been missing. As mentioned, I don’t think he’s a threat to take over for Mixon, but Brown’s explosive potential is a key to the shallow passing attack under Browning.

MORE: Should Chase Brown Be Picked Up Off the Waiver Wire in Week 15?

Brown is just outside of my top 30 at the position — putting him in the same tier as Gus Edwards and Tyjae Spears as RBs who can produce viable numbers without high-end volume.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: After passing Randy Moss for the most receiving yards in NFL history before turning 25, Jefferson suffered a chest injury and was taken to the hospital as a precaution shortly after that.

Forget your fantasy team, this is a brutal blow for an All-Pro who worked hard to get out there for his team after missing seven straight games with a hamstring injury. Monitor the PFN NFL and Fantasy Player News Tracker for the latest on this situation, but as things stand right now, I’d plan on again operating without your first-round pick. Injuries are the worst.

Jordan Addison: This is an exploitable matchup, but Addison’s role is what worries me. I’m not at all sold that this offense can sustain three viable pass catchers, so if Jefferson is active, Addison fades well off of my Flex radar. No questions asked.

The situation gets a little more complicated should Jefferson sit — the Bengals own the highest opponent aDOT and allow the second-most yards per pass this season.

In this instance, Addison would move up 10-12 spots and be a Flex option in deeper leagues or ones that require three receivers to start. I worry about the quantity and quality of looks for Addison no matter who plays, but there’s at least a path to usage if he’s the No. 2 option next to T.J. Hockenson as opposed to No. 3.

Ja’Marr Chase: His massive showing in Week 13 under Browning left us all in awe. “Is Chase still an elite option, even without Joe Burrow?”

At the time, it was a fair question, given how the offense functioned in that win to keep Browning comfortable. But after seeing him settle in and find his rhythm in Week 14, it’s clear that Browning isn’t going to sustain a top receiver that is anything close to elite.

Last week against the Colts, Chase wasn’t anything special. He wasn’t force-fed looks, nor did he do anything exceptional down the field. He was one of six Bengals that saw 3-4 targets, which is a problem since Cincinnati would prefer to run the ball to shorten games.

Now, the Vikings do allow the fourth-most completions per game (24.5), and Chase is still the alpha in this passing game. I have more faith in Browning’s competency than some of the other backup/low-end QBs and, thus, have Chase ranked ahead of Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, and Adam Thielen.

He’s my WR20, settling in behind the receivers with volume I trust and just ahead of the upside receivers that come with either a wide range of outcomes or limited target consistency.

Tee Higgins: In his two games back after missing a month, Higgins has earned just an 11.3% target share — a rate that wouldn’t land a receiver inside my top 30 if those passes were coming from Patrick Mahomes. Spoiler alert, as good as Browning has been, he’s not Mahomes.

Actually, the fact that Browning has been as good as he has without targeting Higgins is a major red flag. We could be looking at a mismatching of skills and/or a receiver in Higgins who isn’t 100% healthy.

Whatever the case may be, I can’t get on board with flexing Higgins this week. He had a touchdown called back last week because he pushed off in the end zone, and he just doesn’t fit the mold of a player trending in a strong enough direction for me to trust.

The Vikings allow the second-fewest red-zone trips per game, so even a bail-me-out touchdown is a long shot.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: I don’t care who is playing quarterback. Or running back. Or receiver. Hockenson has been the lone consistent part of this Vikings offense in 2023, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon.

Since joining Minnesota last season, Hock is averaging 6.3 receptions. Sure, he doesn’t have a 30-yard catch while wearing purple and gold, but the volume is nothing short of elite and gives you a distinct advantage over the majority of your league.

The Bengals allow the sixth-most passing yards and the second-most red-zone trips per game. Hockenson may stub his toe at some point, but this matchup doesn’t look like that spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

• Spread: Colts -2.5
• Total: 42
• Steelers implied points: 19.8
• Colts implied points: 22.3

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: I was hopeful that a stable run game and a bonafide WR1 would help Minshew produce useful numbers, but that hope is gone. His average positional finish over his past six games is QB19, and he has just one finish this season inside the top 12 at the position.

The Steelers are the eighth-best red-zone defense in the league, so even should Minshew find a way to produce between the 20s, I’m not comfortable that he’s responsible for many trips to the end zone. He’s barely a top-20 option this week with bye weeks now in the rearview.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: He has looked like the lead back in this offense post-Matt Canada, and until we have any proof of that changing, that’s how I’m going to rank it. Even dipping back into the Canada era, Harris’ involvement in the passing game (3+ targets in six of his past eight games) is more than suitable given his short-yardage/goal-line work.

The Colts allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game (131.5), and I expect Harris to benefit most from this good matchup. Both he and Jaylen Warren are viable Flex plays for me in this spot; Harris a few spots higher due to the scoring equity.

Jaylen Warren: The Steelers rank 24th in time of possession, meaning they’re rarely in position to run a high number of plays. That’s a big negative when it comes to a backfield committee, but it might not be prohibitive this week against a Colts team that is even worse at possessing the ball (26th in time of possession).

Warren only has two games this season with 12 carries, but the splash-play potential (5.6 ypc this season) keeps his ceiling high enough to make him a worthwhile Flex option.

Zack Moss: The process continues to be right and the results wrong. Not ideal, but I’m stubborn, and I would suggest you be too.

Moss saw eight targets last week, and I expect that level of usage in the pass game to sustain against the fourth blitz-heaviest defense in the league.

Good fantasy managers kept Moss on their roster, even after Jonathan Taylor returned to action. Great ones will continue to play the odds and plug Moss in with confidence.

#TrustTheProcess

Wide Receivers

George Pickens: With all the chips in the middle of the table, I’m not sure how you bet on Pickens moving forward. The lack of production is one thing — under 60 yards in six of his past seven and scoreless since the beginning of November — but Pickens looking completely disinterested in the sport of football last week is another.

Even in a year filled with struggles, Pickens is averaging 15.7 yards per catch and has a 35+ yard grab in two of his past three games. Right now, I need to see it from him before I consider investing.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

We could see it this week against the lowest blitz rate in the NFL, a defensive game plan that could allow Pickens to find space to operate down the field. If that happens, hopefully you advance and have the opportunity to ride him against a Bengals defense that is routinely attacked downfield next week.

You need to be comfortable in your playoff matchup with the players you’re starting, but neither Steelers receiver checks that box for me this week — both are outside of my top 30 rather easily.

Diontae Johnson: For the first time in over 700 days, Johnson has scored in consecutive games! Heading into this season, if you told me that his scoring would be trending in a positive direction heading into the fantasy playoffs, I would have told you to lock him in as a strong WR2 with a glorious ceiling/floor combination.

Well, that’s not the case. Johnson’s calling card for years has been his volume, but he hasn’t caught 5+ passes in a game since Nov. 2, and this offense as a whole is spinning its wheels.

We know the touchdowns can evaporate. If that’s the case, we are talking about WR67 (his average finish in the three games prior to this TD “run”). I prefer Johnson to Pickens, but not by enough to put him on my Flex radar in anything but deeper formats.

Michael Pittman Jr.: How does eight straight games of starting fantasy value returned sound? That’s exactly what Pittman has offered, an amazing accomplishment given the limitations of Minshew in this passing game.

Last week in Cincinnati, the Colts had one player reach 50 receiving yards — it was Pittman with his customary 8-for-95 performance. His aDOT is actually up 13.4% from a season ago as this coaching staff has found the perfect mix of routes to maximize what it is that Pittman (and Minshew) do well.

He’s a matchup-proof WR1 moving forward and one of the better bargains you got at your draft this summer.

Josh Downs: Pittman’s success had me believing for a while that a secondary pass catcher in this offense could thrive next to him. That belief is long gone.

Downs is still my second favorite option in Indy’s passing game over Alec Pierce, but with him earning a 7.9% target share last week and not having a 50-yard performance since Halloween — it ain’t happening.

You can safely cut any Indianapolis pass catcher not named Pittman and build roster depth in a different way.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Remember that career game against the Bengals in Week 12 where Patty Football caught nine passes for 120 yards? Turns out that was very much the exception, not the rule.

Freiermuth has seen his 12 targets net just 47 yards since that big performance and has been held under 30 receiving yards in six of eight games this season. He is the definition of a blobber at the TE position, and without any level of consistency under center, there’s no reason to take on this sort of risk with your fantasy season on the line.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions

• Spread: Lions -5
• Total: 47
• Broncos implied points: 21
• Lions implied points: 26

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: I understand you wanting to target what has proven to be a reasonable floor from Wilson and pick on a Lions defense that peaked early in the season. However, I do recommend treading with some caution.

The floor Wilson has created over the past two months has largely come with his legs, a tough bet for an aging QB to continue. Wilson doesn’t have a top-10 finish since Week 4 and has been held under 225 passing yards in not just three straight games, but nine of his past 10.

The Lions rank seventh in pressure rate this season, and if Wilson is sped up, I don’t trust him to make the big play through the air. Maybe he gets there with another solid rushing performance, but like I said, that’s living on the edge.

Wilson is my QB14 this week, ranking behind Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love, who are available in plenty of leagues.

Jared Goff: We’ve missed “Home Goff” in our lives over the past two weeks, but we get him back at the perfect time!

Goff had multiple TD passes in four straight games prior to the dud in Chicago last week. Yet, I think we get back on track against a Broncos defense that is bottom five in pressure rate and yards per play.

Goff has four top-eight performances this season — all came in either beautiful weather conditions or spots with a controlled environment. He’s in that top-eight conversation for me this week and should be considered a viable option in all formats.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: Fresh off of his first rushing score of the season, Williams has been a stable source of usable production for almost two months now, and I see no reason to think that’ll change this week in Detroit. The Lions own the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, and given Williams’ strong role, he’s the most likely Denver player to benefit from that flaw.

My lone concern here is possession count. The Broncos rank 22nd in average time of possession while the Lions rank fifth, putting this run game at risk, especially if Detroit can score with the consistency that I believe they will.

You take the good with the bad. At the end of the day, we’re looking at a talented back in a lead role against a defense that has struggled of late. Williams is a fine RB2, and it wouldn’t shock me if he gave us a stat line this week similar to what he produced last week in Los Angeles (91 yards and a touchdown).

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: Ranking two RBs from the same offense feels dangerous, but when the offense is expected to light up the scoreboard against a leaky run defense, the risk is minimal, to say the least.

Last week, in a much more difficult matchup against the Bears, Montgomery handled the ball on three of Detroit’s first four plays, while Gibbs had an explosive run (36 yards) and a touchdown before the first three drives were over.

No defense in the league coughs up more rushing yards per game (or yards per carry) than the Broncos. And with them ranking bottom five in preventing red-zone trips, both Lions RBs should be started with confidence.

Gibbs held a 41-23 snap edge last week (24-8 advantage in routes) and is the higher ranked of the two. Yet, both should be more than capable of producing reliable numbers.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: We are approaching Christmas in a season where Sutton has been healthy — he has three games without a touchdown. Three. All season.

Normally, I’m not a fan of relying on a player who is scoring at a rate like this (one of every 5.3 receptions, crazy for a receiver who had four touchdowns on 122 catches over the two seasons prior), but at this point, betting on him finding paydirt feels like betting on the sun to rise.

The math person in me does have to nitpick the volume — eight catches over the past three weeks is a dangerous way to live. That said, Sutton’s proven consistent in the splash-play department (30+ yard catch in five straight games) and is the unquestioned top option in this passing game the second they cross midfield.

The Lions have allowed a league-high 657 more air yards than YAC this season. In fact, they’re the only team with a number north of 600, putting Sutton in a good spot to continue on his run of unique stability (my WR18).

Jerry Jeudy: Want to see what would happen to Sutton if the scoring dried up? Just look at Jeudy’s player card — limited volume with an average catch rate.

Jeudy hasn’t cleared 65 receiving yards since Week 2. It’s clear that this team can have success without the player most assumed was their WR1 entering this season.

Jeudy had a touchdown wiped off the board in last week’s win over the Chargers, but close doesn’t count. Personally, I’m not calling Jeudy’s number in the fantasy playoffs. The matchup is fine, and with the deep ball likely being thrown on a consistent basis this week, I understand if you want to roll the dice.

I’d rather go the Noah Brown (assuming C.J. Stroud is active) or Odell Beckham Jr. direction.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: It was a tough two-game road trip for St. Brown (five catches on 15 targets for 70 yards), but if you’re considering anything besides locking him in, you’re doing this fantasy thing wrong.

With Goff projected to rebound, his WR1 should follow suit in a major way. St. Brown has scored in each of Detroit’s past three wins (and in five of their past six), a trend that could continue this week.

St. Brown lands inside my top 10 this week because that’s where he lives every week. That’s not changing down the stretch this season, and I don’t see it changing at any point in 2024, either.

Josh Reynolds: He’s scored in two of his past three games, but Reynolds hasn’t earned five targets in a game since Week 4. If you want to get creative with how you bet on Goff in a Saturday DFS contest, be my guest, but Reynolds is in no position to challenge for Flex consideration in season-long leagues.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: Stop it. You’ve been spoiled up to this point by what LaPorta has given you — you can survive a slow game.

• Averages vs. CHI: 2.5 catches for 20.5 yards and zero TDs
• Averages vs. rest of NFL: 5.5 catches for 60.1 yards and 0.5 TDs

With four top-three finishes and seven top-10 weeks, Detroit’s rookie deserves to be locked into all lineups.

MORE: Fantasy TE Start/Sit — How Should You Handle Sam LaPorta and Chigoziem Okonkwo?

The Broncos rank 25th in yards-per-pass allowed, and with no secondary receiver on this offense earning consistent looks, LaPorta’s combination of volume and athleticism creates an elite floor/ceiling profile.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns

• Spread: Browns -3.5
• Total: 38
• Bears implied points: 17.3
• Browns implied points: 20.8

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: Safe to say the Fields we know and love is back?

He has 42 carries in his three games back from the thumb injury and has produced top-eight QB numbers in four of his past five healthy games. Do I still fear the Browns’ defense? I do, but considering that Cleveland has allowed 92 points over their past three games, I’m not exactly inclined to fully fade their opposition.

The concern here is a boring game that has the fewest possessions on the slate. The Browns lead the league in average time of possession this season, while the Bears rank third. We always preach volume, and there’s a strong chance that there are limited opportunities for all involved in this one.

These athletic QBs are a little bit more matchup-proof in my eyes than a pocket statue, which is why I’m still comfortable in labeling Fields as a top 10.

Joe Flacco: The wily veteran has brought stability to the position in Cleveland, giving them over 250 passing yards and a pair of scores in both of his starts. Is he elite?

OK, let’s not go there, but he is clearly comfortable, and we know this offense has viable skill players. The strength of the Bears’ defense is in slowing down the run game, so if we are looking at another 40+ dropbacks from Joe Cool, he’s a top-20 QB for me and, thus, a live option for those in need of a dart throw.

Running Backs

D’Onta Foreman: At the very least, we seemingly have some clarity in this backfield. Last week, Foreman played seven more snaps than Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson combined. Of course, in this Fields-centric offense, that playing time resulted in very little (13 touches for 72 yards).

Foreman has managed to score five times this season, and the Browns, very quietly, have the fifth-worst red-zone defense in the league. This is still a tough matchup, but Foreman is at least on the Flex radar as a player who should challenge 15 touches while holding some scoring equity.

Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson: Betting on this Bears offense isn’t for the faint of heart as it is, let alone on a secondary back without a clear role.

MORE: Fantasy Football Cut List Week 15

Johnson is an encouraging young talent, but for 2023, he’s pigeonholed into a role that simply doesn’t matter for fantasy. As for Herbert — zero rush TDs this season and just a total of 11 touches over his past two games.

I’m not rostering either of these backs, let alone considering playing them at this point in the game.

Jerome Ford: The carry count is about as scary as it gets for any running back that I’m considering starting this week (42 carries over his past four games), but the role in the passing game has proven stable enough for our liking (21 targets over that four-game run).

Ford’s role as the lead back in this offense appears safe given that he played 15 more snaps than Kareem Hunt. But the splitting of dangerous touches near the goal line are a reasonable concern, especially in this matchup.

The Bears are the third-best run defense on a per-carry basis this season, but they also own the worst red-zone unit in the NFL. Ford is going to need to make the most of the chances, something that isn’t a lock to do against this run defense.

Consider Ford a viable Flex play that carries risk but also comes with a level of versatility that elevates his floor.

Kareem Hunt: After scoring three times on 123 carries last season, Hunt has punched in seven of his 111 rush attempts this season. That role at least keeps him on rosters, but with four receiving yards since the beginning of November and no more than 12 carries in five straight, he doesn’t need to be close to starting lineups.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore: With five straight WR1 finishes when Fields both starts and finishes the game, Moore’s stock has elevated to the point of a lineup lock that you can’t consider sitting as long as Fields is on the field.

MORE: Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Strategy

On top of a nice connection with Fields, the Bears showed signs of creativity last week. Moore was snapped the ball, faked a handoff to Fields, and took it the distance for his first career rushing score. Lock him in!

Amari Cooper: We weren’t sure that Cooper was going to play last week following the Week 13 concussion. Well, he played against the Jaguars and earned 32.6% of the targets, breaking out of a mini-slump.

The Bears are a bottom-five defense in terms of opponent completion count (24.4) and percentage of opponent yards that come through the air. Backing this passing game is scary, but Cooper’s role as the lead man is stable and lands him as a Flex option — even in an offense with plenty of question marks.

Elijah Moore: Moore’s connection with Flacco from his days in New York is enough to earn him a fair target share. However, the efficiency simply isn’t enough to make him a true option (6.3 yards per target over his past three games).

The Bears rank fourth worst in pressure rate, so maybe there’s a world in which Moore’s PPR production makes sense in a DFS punt play. Outside of that, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: With at least seven targets in five of six games, Kmet is threatening to move from certified blobber to a starting option at the tight end position.

One more week. If Kmet can earn targets at a high rate this week, I’ll consider ranking him as a starter for Week 16, but I’m not comfortable making that move just yet. The Browns allow a league-low 159.7 pass yards per game this season, and this is looking like a low-possession, grind-it-out game.

Kmet is a fringe top-15 fantasy TE for me — sitting just outside of my trust circle.

David Njoku: Find yourself someone who loves you the way backup QBs in Cleveland love Njoku. He has seen 38 targets in the four games since the Deshaun Watson injury, and he doubled his season touchdown total last week against the Jaguars.

The stat line (six catches for 91 yards and a pair of TDs) was phenomenal, there’s no denying that. That said, he did go the entire second half without earning a target, a reminder that his floor is a low one.

Flacco has provided a level of stability to this passing game, and with the Bears owning a stout run defense, Njoku should remain involved in the short passing game. He’s a top-10 play for me — the risk is less prohibitive at the TE position than any other.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Packers -3.5
• Total: 42
• Buccaneers implied points: 19.3
• Packers implied points: 22.8

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: If you’re dealing with the Justin Herbert injury, Mayfield at least deserves to be on your radar with five top-12 finishes in his past eight games.

The yardage total is unlikely to blow you away (six games under 210 passing yards, including three straight), but his QB14 average finish in Buccaneers wins this season should give you hope if you think Green Bay is crumbling on a short week.

Mayfield currently sits as my QB17 and is my third favorite stream this week (second favorite in this game).

Jordan Love: The Love experience comes preloaded with a wide range of emotions. Through the first month of this season, his average finish was QB10, and we felt good about playing him.

Week 5 at Raiders: QB24

It took a while for Love to work his way back into our good graces, but three top-10 finishes were enough to mentally prepare us to take the dive on him heading into last week in a great spot on prime time.

Week 14 at Giants: QB22

The fact of the matter is that Love isn’t ready to be counted on consistently. That said, we also know that he has the potential to matter. If you’re streaming the position, that level of hope is of interest against a defense that allows nearly 73% of opponents’ offensive yardage to come through the air (fifth highest).

Love is a top-15 play for me, ranking behind only Stafford in terms of QBs available in the leagues I play (he’s also behind Sam Howell for me this week if he was cut loose in your league).

Running Backs

Rachaad White: My ballot is a crowded one, but White is on it for fantasy MVP this season. No, he hasn’t outscored the field, but the consistency he’s offered (eight straight top-20 finishes) and his draft day cost is a pretty interesting argument.

Guess what? I don’t think it changes in the Battle of the Bays this weekend. The Packers give up the fifth-most yards per carry (4.6) while also boasting the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT through 14 weeks. Chunk rush plays and dump-off passes?

I expect this game to be competitive, which means plenty of White (50 touches over the past two weeks). He’s a top-10 option for me and could give us his third 20-point effort of the season.

Aaron Jones: Jones has sat out three straight games with a knee injury, but he’s been making strides of late. Given that the team didn’t place him on IR, I’m tentatively expecting him back in a committee situation while the Packers try to recover from getting DeVito’d last week.

Will that work in this matchup against a Bucs defense that ranks top five in both red-zone conversion rate and missed tackles per game? I’m skeptical.

Jones checks in above AJ Dillon in my ranks but still outside of my top 20. He’s an average starter this week and one that I believe carries more risk than reward potential. I have no problem if you want to chase “safe” volume in players like Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard over him — that’s the tier in which I have him ranked.

AJ Dillon: He never could get going in a great spot last week in a favorable spot against the Giants (15 carries for 53 yards) and has failed to rip off a run longer than 10 yards in consecutive games (33 carries).

With Jones’ return looming, Dillon figures to see his touch count dip from 17-20 to 12-14, which is just not enough usage to pencil him in as a Flex option. The Bucs gave up just 96 yards on 26 carries to the Falcons last week (zero runs of 10+ yards), making Dillon a player who needs to score to justify your time — he has one TD on 186 touches this season.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: This is part of the deal. I’m not sure if you read it back in August, but when you drafted Evans, there was a tiny fine print written underneath his name:

“Elite player that comes with a baffling floor. You’re likely to see it after Thanksgiving whenever he doesn’t play the Panthers.”

Listen, I don’t make the rules. The elite playmaking potential of Evans can be both a blessing and a curse. It allows him to string 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons because his talent eventually shines through, but that skill set isn’t foolproof week-over-week.

I’m more than comfortable going back to the well here and have Evans ranked as a WR1. The Packers blitz at a well-above-average rate, which is bound to leave Evans on an island more than a few times; Mayfield will give him the chance to make the most of those moments, and he should be able to bounce back in a significant way.

Chris Godwin: The veteran receiver posted his best game since the beginning of November and posted a 37.9% target share — those positive returns still didn’t land him in the top 30 at the position.

I don’t want to say that Mayfield is Jameis Winston lite, but he is certainly all in on challenging defenses down the field, and with Godwin’s aDOT 30.8% lower than Evans’, the ceiling for Godwin isn’t much beyond what we saw last week (five catches for 53 yards). That style of quarterbacking from Mayfield also eliminates the floor that we’ve come to assume with Godwin — he’s not a top-40 receiver for me this week.

Jayden Reed: It’s pretty hard to underwhelm on eight catches, but turning those 10 targets into 27 receiving yards is certainly doing that if you don’t play in a full-PPR setting. Reed’s unique stat line last week was the second-lowest yardage total that 8+ receptions have netted in the history of the NFL. Nevertheless, I left the game encouraged.

Yes, the Giants did a great job of containing Reed in space, and that hurt his Week 14 value. I’m just not sure that’s going to happen on a consistent basis.

MORE: Fantasy FAAB Picks Week 15

The Packers are clearly enamored with their rookie. They’re scheming up ways to get the ball in his hands. Not only did he record multiple carries for the third time in four games, he was handed the ball on a key two-point conversion that would have extended Green Bay’s lead to three late.

The play failed, but the high-leverage usage is all we can ask for. Three straight games without a 15+ yard catch isn’t ideal, but again, if you’re playing a rookie on a consistent basis, you know the risk that you’re taking.

Reed’s pretty clearly the WR1 in Green Bay these days with Christian Watson banged up, and when facing the fourth-worst pass defense in terms of yards per pass, that role lands him in my top 30.

Reed serves as the Keenan Allen line for me this week — anyone ranked above Reed is a good play over Allen, while anyone behind him in the rankings is not someone I’d play over Los Angeles’ veteran.

Christian Watson: The Packers’ speedster missed three games to open this season with a hamstring injury, and the injury cropped back up at the very end of the Week 13 win over the Chiefs, forcing Watson to sit out Week 14.

There’s no good time for an injury, but this one hurt anyone who remained loyal to Watson during the slow months. He scored four times in the Packers’ previous three games with a 24.6% target share over his two most recent games, as impressive of an opportunity-earning stretch as Watson has shown us in his young career.

Reed will be my highest-ranked Packer receiver regardless of Watson’s status, but against a pass-funnel defense, it’s not hard to imagine both Reed and Watson returning top-35 value. It could happen — but I’m not comfortable in projecting it during this critical week given that his hamstring could act up at a moment’s notice if he is activated.

Romeo Doubs: His seven touchdowns on the season are encouraging, but Doubs’ lack of consistency is too much for me to count on this time of year. He posted just 32 yards against the Giants on Monday night, his ninth game with under 40 yards this season.

Doubs’ 60.5% catch rate this season points to an iffy connection with Love. Given the inconsistencies of Love as it is, this feels like a two-player parlay just to get you viable Flex production (betting on Love having a good game AND for him showing a connection with Doubs).

If I’m going to roll the dice on a player like this, I’d rather it be a Jahan Dotson or Gabe Davis type where a difference-making week is the upside I’m chasing.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: He found paydirt for the fourth time last week in Atlanta, and that was helpful if you played him, but he turned five targets into just 16 yards. For a player who rarely comes off the field, Otton’s floor is as low as any player at the position, a testament to his inability to consistently earn valuable looks.

For the season, Otton has one game with 50+ yards and has been held under 30 yards on seven occasions. In the three games he has scored, Evans has seen just 15.7% of the targets. So if you’re comfortable betting against Evans in a significant way, maybe there’s a path to value, but that’s a lot of mental gymnastics to work through to play a TE that owns a profile that is identical to half of the starting TEs in the league.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Titans -3
• Total: 38
• Texans implied points: 17.5
• Titans implied points: 20.5

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: The rookie is working through concussion protocol, and with four games being played before Sunday, managers with Stroud are potentially facing a difficult position this week. Will he be able to play?

If so, he’s a top-12 option against a pass-funnel defense that rarely blitzes. Stroud threw for 348 yards per game in his four most recent performances before the Week 14 dud in New York against the Jets, upside that you can’t leave on your bench if active.

If you’re waiting out this injury, you need to have a plan, whether it be on your bench or the waiver wire. Matthew Stafford entered the week as my favorite widely available option, and that remains the case. If he was scooped up, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield are two Sunday options that should have your eye.

Will Levis: The upset win in Miami was great to see, but Levis finished another week no better than QB15, something he has done in every game since his debut. There is certainly something in Levis’ profile that should have dynasty managers very interested, but there’s no reason to go in this direction in redraft leagues at this point in the season.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: This is his backfield for the remainder of the season (32-8 snap edge over Dameon Pierce last week), and that’s comforting if we know that Stroud is OK and that this offense is going to be in scoring positions.

Even if that’s the case, we are still looking at more of a Flex play than anything in a tough matchup against the best red-zone defense in the league (37.5% TD rate, the only team below 40%). Singletary has managed just one catch over the past two weeks and hasn’t had a 25-yard carry since Christmas Eve.

This running game doesn’t have any stability to it due to the offensive line. If you can avoid Singletary, I would, but don’t shy away in exchange for an all-or-nothing receiver like Jahan Dotson or Gabe Davis.

Dameon Pierce: At just 2.9 yards per carry and six whole feet of receiving yards since mid-October, there’s nothing to see here. Pierce showed flashes as a rookie, and we can deep dive into that this summer when it comes to his long-term outlook, but as far as the 2023 stretch run is considered, Pierce doesn’t matter.

Derrick Henry: Three straight multi-score games, and we are firmly in D-Hember. As corny as that label is, I can’t knock it until it fails. Henry has 56 carries over his past three games, and if that continues against the defense that is one of two to have missed 100 tackles this season, another strong performance is imminent.

The Texans are the second-best run defense on a per-carry basis this season, and that would be a concern in most spots, but not here.

MORE: Tate’s Rest-of-Season RB Rankings Week 15

Counting on Henry for efficiency is sort of like a robot vacuum. Is it nice to have? Sure, why not? Is it needed? Nope. Henry’s average positional finish over the past three weeks has been RB7, a stretch that has seen him average a tick under 3.8 yards per carry.

This matchup isn’t great, and if Stroud plays, game script concerns could factor in, but Henry is the type of player I’m OK losing with — he’s a fine RB2 for me in all formats despite the red flags (five straight games without multiple receptions).

Tyjae Spears: The kid is impressive. That’s all there is to it. He also isn’t being given the opportunity to thrive right now, and that makes him nothing more than a risky Flex option at this point in the season.

Spears out-snapped King Henry 45-36 last week and held a commanding 24-11 edge in routes. That usage allowed him to reel in six passes for 89 yards on top of rushing seven times for 29 yards. His role in the passing game is interesting for deep PPR leagues (4+ catches in four of his past six games), but the overall touch upside and scoring potential are both capped in a significant way.

He ranks alongside other explosive secondary options like Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle for me — break glass in case of emergency options more than RBs I am realistically comfortable counting on during the fantasy postseason.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins: A calf injury resulted in Collins leaving after Houston’s first drive and never returning. He entered the game with consecutive games of at least nine targets, 104 yards, and a touchdown, showcasing the elite upside that we’ve been chasing for a while.

The Tank Dell injury gave us optimism that Collins’ target share would challenge the best in the league, a good reason to consider him a top-15 play when healthy. That said, we now have the moving piece of Stroud’s health to deal with, not to mention the potential of this injury lingering for Collins himself.

Even if all injury protocols are passed, my ranking of Collins will be a touch lower than it would have been otherwise. That said, against a secondary that is vulnerable down the field, Collins would still be a must-start option in that situation.

If this is the Davis Mills show, I’ve got my concerns. Due to the matchup, Collins would still be a viable fantasy starter, though it would be in more in a Flex capacity. Last season, with Mills leading the offense, no Texan receiver reached 700 yards or caught more than three scores. For the entire season.

Noah Brown: Tank Dell is out for the season, and Nico Collins was banged up over the weekend, leaving Brown as the lone man standing in an offense led by the impressive C.J. Stroud (health permitting) against a pass-funnel Titans defense. Sign me up!

Tennessee ranks bottom 10 in opponent completion percentage, a true weakness given that their opponents put up a top-10 aDOT against them. Brown carries risk, but the 6’2″ receiver has flashed significant upside and should see extended opportunities in a plus matchup.

If the Titans refuse to bring pressure like they have this season (sixth-lowest blitz rate), Brown should have time to get loose down the field and reward your loyalty after a pair of duds.

DeAndre Hopkins: With a touchdown in three of four games and the highlight plays showing up on occasion, Hopkins is rounding into form now that he’s been with Levis for going on two months.

Don’t get me wrong, the floor is still low due to the efficiency concerns, but with a 34.8% target share over the past two weeks, there’s more potential reward than risk in this spot against the third-worst per-pass defense in the league.

It’s been a bumpy ride for Hopkins’ managers, but if you hung tough, your patience is set to be rewarded — Hopkins is a low-end WR2 for me and a starter in most formats as a result this week.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: For a second consecutive week, Schultz was sidelined with a hamstring injury, and his status appears to be iffy at best. He’s returned top-10 value in three straight healthy games (and six of his past seven) and would slide into a valuable role this week given the injuries at the skill positions for the Texans, but his return is no sure thing.

And if he returns, are we sure that he will assume the full workload that he had before?

Brevin Jordan has turned eight targets into 99 yards during the two games Schultz has missed. I have Schultz penciled into my ranks at the moment as a fringe top-15 play. Should he sit, the role that Jordan would assume would result in him changing into the top 12 at the position.

Chigoziem Okonkwo: He got dinged up last week in the upset win over the ‘Fins, but that didn’t stop him from earning 5+ targets for a third straight game. He’s at the top of the TE blob for me, a player that can be streamed in desperate times given the lack of a secondary pass catcher in this offense, but not one that I am actively targeting.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

• Spread: Dolphins -9
• Total: 39
• Jets implied points: 15
• Dolphins implied points: 24

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Well, that stunk. Against a pass-funnel Titans defense, Tagovailoa gave us his fourth finish outside the top 20 at the position, failing to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season and being dragged down for a season-high five sacks.

That’s not exactly the form you want your starting quarterback to take into arguably the most difficult matchup possible, but here we are. Tagovailoa hasn’t finished better than QB9 since Week 6, but I will cut him some slack for last week’s performance with Tyreek Hill missing a portion of that game.

Much like the Dolphins as a team, his best performances have come in very predictable spots (at LAC, vs. DEN, and vs. CAR). Am I excited about starting him this week? I’m not, but with the combination of playmakers around him and the equally tough matchups for other options in his tier (Kyler Murray faces the 49ers, and Trevor Lawrence gets the Ravens), he slides into the back end of the QB1 conversation.

Running Backs

Breece Hall: The versatility is what makes Hall a viable asset — that was the case last week against the Texans (86 yards and a touchdown as a pass catcher), and that was the case in the first meeting with the Dolphins (seven receptions).

The Dolphins are the fifth-best run defense on a per-carry basis this season, but Hall’s role in this limited offense transcends matchup. With New York likely playing from behind and Hall a good bet to rack up some cheap production, he’s deserving of a starting nod in all formats without much question or concern.

Raheem Mostert: By a show of hands, who thought that, through 14 weeks, Mostert would have as many top-five finishes at the position as Tony Pollard, Alvin Kamara, and Bijan Robinson combined?

This is a written medium, so I can’t tell how many of you raised your hand. If you did, you should have my job — there’s no way you did. Nor did I, and I was high on Mostert!

He held a 46-33 snap edge over De’Von Achane last week and was on the field for all five of Miami’s short-yardage situations. I think that’s about the split we can expect moving forward — Mostert with the lead role and Achane functioning as a refreshing option capable of breaking the game open.

The Jets allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game (131.8) and see a league-high 44.1% of opponent yards come on the ground. Mostert checks in as an RB2 for me due to the matchup and the potential for Achane to assume a greater workload, but that’s nitpicking.

If you’re playing meaningful games this time of year, Mostert is a big reason why, and you’re continuing to ride the gravy train (and yes, you can put that on the long list of sayings that I don’t really understand but use).

De’Von Achane: Last week’s game script didn’t exactly play out as any of us thought, and that resulted in Achane seeing more targets (nine) than rush attempts (seven). I don’t think that role is here to stay, but his working behind Mostert is what I’m expecting for the final month.

Achane was the only back used by the Dolphins in two-minute situations, and with Jeff Wilson Jr. only playing one snap all day long, this is clearly a two-man committee that can pay off both sides. There is some risk you are taking on here with the limited touch potential, but the ceiling is more than worth it — think of him like 2022 Tony Pollard.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: With at least a dozen targets in five of his past eight games, Wilson is proving the value in volume. No one is going to argue any one target in this pitiful passing game is worth much, but Wilson earns opportunities in bulk and continues to produce at a viable rate on a consistent basis.

The Week 12 meeting with these Dolphins was as good an example as any. He averaged just 4.4 yards per target, but thanks to seeing 10 balls thrown his way and cashing in a short score, he finished the week as WR23.

Wilson doesn’t yet have a finish better than WR15 this season, and there’s not much indicating that his ceiling is anything higher than that, given the ineptitude of this offense as a whole. That said, the volume feels like a near lock, given the projected game script, and if the first 14 weeks have taught us anything, it’s that Wilson will do what he can to prove worthy of being in your starting lineup.

Tyreek Hill: He was scolded by his wife to get back on the field after suffering an ankle injury last week — she must be one of us and have him in her fantasy lineup!

He seems to have avoided any significant issue, and the argument could be made that the Week 14 injury could win you a title.

How?

Well, the loss opens up the playoff-seeding race. It also hurt Hill’s quest for 2,000 yards. With the Dolphins and Hill remaining motivated down the stretch, we could see some more massive performances. You’re not benching Hill in any circumstance — heck, I don’t think I’d bench him if I knew he was going to miss a quarter with an injury flare-up!

Jaylen Waddle: All we ask for in fantasy is consistency, and with exactly eight targets in four straight, Waddle’s role is just that.

He caught all eight in the first meeting with the Jets, racking up 114 yards in the process and returning strong value in all formats. The five-game touchdown drought isn’t ideal, but I also don’t think it’s predictive.

Waddle has cleared 75 air yards on a handful of occasions this season, and given the pressure that Hill puts on opposing secondaries, Waddle deserves to be looked at as a fantasy WR2 in the same way as secondary options like Puka Nacua and DeVonta Smith.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Nothing he does is exciting, but in my leagues, “excitement” isn’t a category that earns fantasy points. He has seven games this season with at least four receptions (for reference, that’s more than George Kittle has) and rarely loses you the week.

MORE: Week 15 Fantasy TE Streamers

Sure, he may not win you your matchup, but if you’re streaming the position, that’s not a realistic expectation. The Jets figure to be playing from behind this week in Miami against a Dolphins defense on a short week, thus leaving the door open for another 8-10 PPR performance. That works!

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

• Spread: Chiefs -9.5
• Total: 37
• Chiefs implied points: 23.3
• Patriots implied points: 13.8

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: If you’re not willing to ride out these struggles, then you’re a fantasy brat.

You heard me, a brat. Mahomes is as capable as anyone of breaking open a fantasy matchup, so I’m not willing to listen to anyone who is complaining about him.

People complain when they want change or believe there is an action that can fix their problem, right? If you complain about the movie your date picks, you’re looking for something different. If you complain at a restaurant about your entree, you’re hoping they either comp the dish or offer to cater to what you want to be changed.

There is no change or action to take here. You play Patrick Mahomes.

No better than QB15 in three of four games
No 30-yard completions in four of five games
Under 6.5 yards per pass in five of six games

Don’t care. There is literally nothing you can do that would make sense, so why waste brain power on it? Over 71% of yards against the Patriots come through the air (seventh-highest rate), and Mahomes is pacing for a career year in rushing yards.

It’s playoff time, and there are plenty of stressful decisions to make. Don’t add to that list unnecessarily.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Kansas City’s star back sat out last week with a shoulder contusion and those close to the team reported shortly after he was ruled out that the team would not put Pacheco on IR.

That’s obviously good news, but the fact that the question was being asked is concerning. The Chiefs have their eyes on peaking in January, making it possible that we see a cautious approach.

The Patriots are the top per-carry run defense in the NFL, though I’m not sure the matchup matters in a massive way. Pacheco has faced a pair of top-10 per-carry defenses this season, and he has returned top-13 value at the position in both of those instances.

If Pacheco is active, you’re playing him and assuming that a team with the long game in mind wouldn’t roll him out there if he’s not right.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: With Pacheco sitting, CEH held a slim 32-30 snap edge over Jerick McKinnon as he dominated the early-down usage and gave up snaps in passing situations as expected.

I expect the game script to be more favorable for the run game in Kansas City this week than last, so sign me up for the “over” on the 13 touches we got from CEH last week in his first start of the season. The Patriots, however, do own the top per-carry run defense in the league, thus tempering the projectable yardage upside.

He’s one of three running backs in this game that carry risk but should be considered viable Flex plays. The lack of work in the passing game is a concern, but I have him holding more scoring equity than the other RBs in this game.

Jerick McKinnon: As expected, it was McKinnon with the edge in routes run over Edwards-Helaire (18-15), and he even managed to rush for a seven-yard score last week.

The rushing score isn’t something that I’m reading into, just like a CEH touchdown catch wouldn’t change my opinion of how these backs are most often used. McKinnon played 16 of the 17 running back snaps on third down, a clear signal that his role resides in the passing game.

MORE: Top Week 15 RB Waiver Wire Targets Include Jerick McKinnon

I actually think McKinnon’s role helps Mahomes’ fantasy stock more than it does for himself. He’s a PPR Flex option that ranks just ahead of that Chase Brown/Tyjae Spear tier at the position.

Rhamondre Stevenson: A high ankle sprain sidelined Stevenson last week, and with that usually requiring multiple weeks to recover, I think we are safe to operate under the assumption that he misses this game, if not the rest of the season.

Ezekiel Elliott: We all assumed he would hold the lead role in Week 14, but did we really think he’d total 140 yards and handle 29 of 30 RB touches?

I have my questions about his efficiency, consistency, and ability, but that level of volume is tough to find this time of year. Since the Week 11 bye, Patriots RBs have seen 28.2% of the targets, and if ‘Zeke is essentially going to assume all of the backfield usage, that puts him on the RB2 radar.

I’ve dialed back his projection a bit based on this matchup and my lack of confidence in Elliott when it comes to the ability to create yardage beyond what is blocked, but even I can’t take him out of strong Flex play territory.

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice: If you’ve been rolling with the PFN crew through this fantasy season (podcast, written content, live streams, etc.), then you have no questions about Rice and have likely skipped right past this portion of this essay.

Why wouldn’t you? He’s a star and a lineup lock.

The rookie has distanced himself from his teammates as the clear-cut WR1 in this offense and has scored six times this season, despite limited work until recently.

The Chiefs have been rewarded for giving him more leeway (seven-plus catches in three straight games) and with the confidence of Mahomes, there is nothing that Rice has done over the past month that should be considered flukey.

With multiple red-zone looks in three straight games, there aren’t any questions to ask about Rice. You’re playing him and loving it.

Demario Douglas: The slot specialist missed last week (concussion), but don’t forget about him. Douglas was targeted on 40.9% of his routes in Week 12 and has caught at least five balls in four straight games (24.2% target share in those games).

It goes without saying that the upside is capped, but this time of year opens managers up to some creativity. Douglas is a great option to roster (and potentially Flex) for highly seeded teams that have star power capable of doing the heavy lifting.

If you’re looking for a week-winner, look elsewhere. If you want a stable source of PPR production, monitor Douglas’ practice habits as he looks to return to action.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: The former Steeler lit up his previous employer for 90 yards last week – his second game this season with 35-plus receiving yards. Did QB Bailey Zappe unlock something?

I don’t think so, and if Douglas returns to action, we are talking about fewer looks in a pass game that I still don’t trust. If Douglas misses another game, Smith-Schuster shifts to the very low end of Flex consideration in full-PPR leagues.

The Chiefs are a top-five defense in terms of yards per pass and missed tackles per game – two traits that have me looking elsewhere to fill my Flex position with my season on the line.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: “The play that wasn’t” got all of the attention last week, but how about Kelce seeing double-digit targets for the first time since mid-October? Or what about him posting three straight games with at least 80 receiving yards for the first time since last November?

Worry about Kelce not scoring in five of his past six games if you want, but understand that you have a true difference-maker who can single-handedly dictate your matchup. I’m not worried about the “Belichick takes away your best option” narrative at all. This Chiefs team needs to get rolling, and their future Hall of Fame tight end is their best way to right the ship.

Hunter Henry: It’s important to note that the expectation is not for Henry to turn three targets into two touchdowns, but the returns last week under Bailey Zappe were at least encouraging.

More important, for me, was the fact that Zappe looked good in the short passing game (10 of 11 when throwing to Ezekiel Elliott or Henry) and that Henry ran a route on 78.1% of dropbacks.

Expecting consistency from any waiver wire TE is asking a lot, so I’m happy to chase touchdowns for a player who has scored on 11.5% of his career receptions and is playing on a team that figures to be trailing plenty this week (and Week 17 in Buffalo).

Betting on this offense is terrifying, but sometimes you have to be comfortable being uncomfortable to ship a fantasy league! Henry is my TE14 and my top streaming option assuming that Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely is already rostered.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -6
• Total: 37.5
• Giants implied points: 15.8
• Saints implied points: 21.8

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: In theory, the matchup looks good, but we said the same thing last week when discussing the value of Jordan Love, and that didn’t exactly go well. Carr has four straight finishes as QB19 or worse, and this is not the time to get cute. Let someone else stream Carr – you have your eyes set on bigger and better things.

Tommy DeVito: This guy’s recent run would be tough to believe if it wasn’t occurring in front of our eyes. From the touchdown celebration to the family and the agent, this is a fun story.

Tommy DeVito’s agent looks exactly like you thought he would 🤌 pic.twitter.com/xmZk2zifCy

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 12, 2023

But fun isn’t fantasy. The Saints are the sixth-best pass defense on a per-attempt basis, and there’s no reason to get this risky in any 1QB setting.

If you want to say that he’s viable in Superflex formats, I’ll give you that. He’s firmly above the tier of quarterback that I would consider benching for a skill position play, but let’s not go overboard on “Tommy Cutlets.”

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: He almost cost them the game last week with a late fumble, but Barkley got handed the ball 20 times – his most since October. That level of usage makes him a must-start.

The floor is lower for Barkley than it is for most star backs, given the limitations of this offense and his all-or-nothing style of running, but you’re plugging him in and not thinking too much about it. This matchup is against a defense that allows the fourth-highest percentage of yards to be gained on the ground.

I am, however, looking elsewhere for DFS. Barkley has big-play potential, but I worry about the scoring equity at his price point.

Alvin Kamara: Jamaal Williams was handed the ball 11 times to Kamara’s 12 last week, and that opens the door for Kamara’s fantasy stock to dip. It’s still not enough to have me questioning his spot in fantasy lineups, though.

Forget what happened last week (five targets for -11 yards), we know that Kamara is a force in this low-octane, Carr-passing game. Combine that with a matchup against the second-worst yards-per-carry run defense in the league, and we could be looking at a big week.

Jamaal Williams: As for Williams, there is some touchdown equity to chase if you’re truly desperate. We know he can cash in short carries, and with the Giants struggling to stop the run – not to mention New Orleans’ role as a sizable favorite – if there’s a spot for Williams to help you out, this is as good a spot as any.

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson: It’s rarely exciting, but Robinson did account for over one-third of New York’s catches and targets last week in the upset win over the Packers.

MORE: Wan’Dale Robinson Waiver Wire Week 15

You’re digging deep if you’re looking at this passing game for value, but sometimes things get ugly. If that’s the case for you, Robinson’s stable role is what I would be looking at.

Chris Olave: New Orleans’ top receiver saved you with a touchdown last week (four catches for 28 yards), making him a viable option in five straight games (TD or 110-plus yards in all five).

His floor is lower than it should be, due to how Carr operates, but that’s not enough to nudge him out of the must-start conversation. You can haggle all you want about his status as a top-12 receiver versus a top-20 guy, but at the end of the day, you likely don’t have three options better than him, so you’re locking him in.

Rashid Shaheed: I don’t love lower body injuries for speedsters, and Shaheed is no exception. That said, the Giants blitz at the third-highest rate in the league (37.5% of opponent dropbacks), so if Shaheed suits up, he becomes an interesting GPP punt play, given the upside that comes with most targets that he sees.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: The utility knife was able to practice all week long due to various hand/foot injuries and was ultimately unable to play against the Panthers last week (questionable tag entering the weekend). He has finished inside the top 10 at the position in five of his past seven games and would assume that spot in my weekly rankings if we get clarity on his health.

Juwan Johnson turned two targets into just 10 yards in what was an opportunity to earn more looks moving forward. You can do better than gambling on a low-upside option like Johnson, regardless of Hill’s status.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

• Spread: Falcons -3.5
• Total: 35.5
• Falcons implied points: 19.5
• Panthers implied points: 16

Quarterbacks

Desmond Ridder: I find it difficult to believe that you’re competitive this time of year and forced to stream the QB position this deep, but every league is different, and I’m here to help anyone who is willing to click on this article and lend me your ear.

It’s kind of crazy how much better an offense can look when they elect to use their playmakers with high-end pedigree. With Bijan Robinson finally being featured, the overall production floor has risen, and it has opened things up down the field.

Against the Bucs, both Drake London and Kyle Pitts had a 35+ yard reception. Combine the weaponry being used at a high level with Ridder’s plus-athleticism (five rushing touchdowns this season), and we have a fantasy-friendly profile.

There’s no denying that Ridder is trending in the right direction, and a matchup with the 1-12 Panthers is as good a spot to keep the good times rolling as any — he’s a top-20 play for me, ranked ahead of Geno Smith.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson: We spent two-and-a-half months killing HC Arthur Smith for his decision-making. Wouldn’t it be poetic justice for his top offensive weapon to lead managers to a championship?

We could be headed in that direction, as the rookie has seen 5+ targets in three straight and has found the end zone four times in his past four games.

MORE: Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings Week 15

The Panthers matchups is — let’s say — favorable. They own the third-highest percentage of opponent yards gained on the ground, the second-worst red zone defense, and they have missed the most tackles in the league.

You’re playing Robinson without a second thought, and it’s possible that he returns value on the price you paid at your draft over the final few weeks of the season.

Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson: The ascension of Robinson has relegated both Allgeier and Patterson to roles that no longer matter for fantasy.

Last week, Allgeier held a 15-12 snap edge over Patterson, but he trailed 6-3 in the routes department. They are splitting a role that I don’t think holds value, making both pretty obvious cut candidates. You can get access to more upside almost anywhere else.

Chuba Hubbard: With 69 carries over his past three games, Hubbard is trying as hard as he can to give this team an asset fantasy managers can feel decent about. It’s working … kind of.

He’s averaging under 4.0 yards per carry for the season. He’s scored in just three games this season, and I don’t think that rate is going to change for the 30th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL. But the sheer number of opportunities along with some versatility (multiple catches in six of his past seven games) elevates his floor to the level of a reliable Flex option.

Hubbard out-snapped Miles Sanders 62-17 last week and doesn’t appear to be in any danger of giving work back any time soon. The Falcons’ defense is a bit underrated (third-best red-zone unit in the league), which is why I can’t get Hubbard into my RB2 tier. Even so, his usage makes him a Flex option that I prefer over any of the receivers in this game.

Miles Sanders: A 48-yard run last week helped save the day if you’re still playing Sanders for some reason. You got lucky. Don’t make that mistake again.

Sanders has eight receiving yards in total over the past month and has reached a dozen carries just once since Week 4. This offense is limited, and given the snap discrepancy that I mentioned above, there’s simply no reason to hang onto Sanders right now.

You have my blessing to cut ties with him for a player who is an injury away from mattering in a significant way. I’d rather have Jordan Mason, Chase Brown, and Jamaal Williams for the rest of the way. Tyjae Spears and Rico Dowdle are secondary options in their respective backfields that I prefer to Sanders even without an injury to the man ahead of them.

There’s simply not a path to production for Sanders in this lost season in Carolina. Use your roster space to gain access to more potential.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: The sophomore picked a great time to have his best game of the season, recording 10 catches for 172 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he could keep rolling if the usage remains.

Week 14 Usage

• 28.2% target share
• 38.5% reception share

No pass catcher in a Ridder-led offense deserves to be labeled as “safe,” and given how vulnerable the Panthers are on the ground, opponents don’t need to take to the air much (175.4 pass yards allowed per game, third-fewest).

I have London ranked in that middling Flex tier with other star receivers that are dealing with limitations at the QB position (New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson, Cleveland Browns WR Amari Cooper, and Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen). The lack of scoring potential is a concern when it comes to ceiling evaluation, but the role/matchup combination is enough for London to warrant your consideration.

Adam Thielen: Speaking of Thielen, Carolina’s top receiver is coming off a 74-yard performance against the Saints, his highest total since Week 6.

He’s going to need to produce at that level again this week if he is going to matter. The Falcons own the second-best red zone defense in the league, and with the Panthers struggling to get into the same zip code as the end zone, a touchdown is unlikely.

I prefer London to Thielen because I think he has more per-catch upside, but both are featured options in below-average pass offenses that enter with form.

Jonathan Mingo: The rookie deserves a roster spot. I’m not saying he’s a fantasy asset – he’s not; he’s outside of my top 45 – but with the Panthers interested in nothing but development at this point, Mingo’s 32.8% target share over the past two weeks is worth noting.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Better late than never, right? Pitts was on the field for 84.7% of the offensive snaps last week and ran a route on 91.1% of dropbacks. He turned that playing time into 57 yards and a touchdown, numbers that were greatly impacted by a 36-yard score where the Bucs leaky pass defense decided coverage was optional.

MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em Picks for Week 15

The big play is in his profile (13.8 yards per catch for his career), but the lack of upside in the volume department (under five receptions in eight straight games) keeps him from entering my top 10.

I like the matchup — and 14 targets over the past two games is a baby step in the right direction (12 targets in his previous three games) — but this offense is more prohibitive than productive. Pitts is a high-end blobber without much of a projectable ceiling.

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams

• Spread: Rams -7
• Total: 49
• Commanders implied points: 21
• Rams implied points: 28

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: The bye came at a good time for Howell, as he has been held without a TD toss in consecutive games (67 attempts). His ability to produce for his fantasy managers, however, has remained thanks to four rushing scores in his past three games.

One way or another, he seems to produce. It’s rarely pretty, but it’s consistent. The Ravens took to the air last week against these Rams (43 attempts), allowing me to feel comfortable in projecting another 40+ dropbacks for Howell.

The ceiling isn’t that of a top-five signal-caller, but I would be shocked if he fell outside the top 15. That makes him a fine streamer if you’re in such a spot this week. I prefer Howell to Matthew Stafford (who could be on your wire) and to Kyler Murray this week.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford was back to targeting his top two playmakers at a high rate (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua accounted for 56.5% of his completions), and it paid off in spades. That’s now three straight games in which the veteran has thrown at least three TD passes — great form to take into any matchup.

But this isn’t “any matchup.”

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 15 — Matthew Stafford, Taysom Hill, and Jerick McKinnon Are Quality Starting Options

This is a matchup with a gutted Commanders defense that has allowed opponents to complete 69.2% of their passes for 1,229 yards and 11 TDs (zero interceptions) during their four-game losing streak. If fantasy is a game of matchups and trends, Stafford is the clear-cut streamer of the week!

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: We all knew that the bottom could fall out for the Robinson production path, given how reliant he was on scoring, and we saw that in the two games prior to the Week 14 bye (not a top 30 RB in either of those games.)

Robinson’s unquestioned role as the lead back in an offense that should be as fresh as any in the spot puts him on my radar. With him clearly holding the goal line role against a defense that has missed the fourth-most tackles, Robinson moves up from a Flex play to a low-end RB2 that you can trust.

Antonio Gibson: With at least three catches in five straight games, Gibson is slowly assuming the role that we thought he’d hold from the jump. If you want to roster him in PPR leagues, I’m fine with it, but without much in the way of touch or scoring upside, he’s not a player I’m considering starting this week.

Kyren Williams: This offense has scored 104 points in the three games since Williams returned from injury, and he’s played a big role in that success.

• Week 12 at Cardinals: 22 touches
• Week 13 vs. Browns: 24 touches
• Week 14 at Ravens: 28 touches

Williams’ role is right up there with San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, and the Rams have shown no hesitation in going back to their guy in a major way. I’m betting on Stafford to put this offense in a good spot, and if that comes through, Williams is set to return RB1 value once again.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: The top receiver in an offense that operates like Washington’s should be a top-15 option, but that’s not the case here.

Heading into the bye, McLaurin was shut out by the Miami Dolphins. In fact, his 29 targets over his past four games have netted just 126 yards. With just two scores on his 2023 resume, we aren’t looking at a must-start option.

Prior to the dud against the Dolphins, McLaurin’s volume was ticking up, and if that returns, I’ll feel better about flexing him in a neutral matchup. I have him penciled in as a strong Flex play that ranks in the same range as Dallas Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks and Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers.

Jahan Dotson: We know that Dotson has big play potential – even if we’ve seen very little of it this season. The Rams boasting the third-highest opponent aDOT is the type of stat I look for when considering a player like this in DFS. Dotson doesn’t need to be on your redraft radar, but he’s on my mind, as I build my Week 15 DFS lineups.

Curtis Samuel: Heading into the bye, Samuel posted his top two yardage performances of the season, but I’m not buying it.

Samuel is a low aDOT weapon, and that type of player requires volume to be consistent. That’s not part of what he brings to the table – one 5-plus catch game since Week 5. A pair of big plays have helped him produce lately, but counting on that from a player like this is beyond dangerous.

Cooper Kupp: Is he back? Kupp has scored in consecutive games and caught eight balls for 115 yards against one of the best defenses in the league last week.

I’m not willing to say the “2021” version is here, but the “WR2 that you can count on” version is here, and that’ll work. With Stafford playing at a high level and a matchup against the worst pass defense on a per-pass basis, benching Kupp is getting too cute.

Puka Nacua: While I’m skeptical about labeling either Rams receiver as a WR1, I have no problem in labeling both as strong starts in all formats.

With Kupp playing well last week, Nacua was still able to carve out eight targets and total 84 yards. His aDOT is 4.5% higher since Kupp’s season debut, and that holds some value in a game that features two of the top three defenses, in terms of opponent aDOT.

Is this a sneaky shootout spot? I’m betting the over on the point total and betting by way of my rankings on a good amount of offense in this game.

Other Rams WRs: Demarcus Robinson caught three of 10 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore last week. Robinson, who had 10 targets all season prior to this game, has scored in consecutive games and saw his usage spike, as a result of the WR Tutu Atwell injury.

It was a nice game, but I’m not banking on this passing game consistently having a third option — be it Atwell, Robinson, or Tyler Higbee.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas is now three weeks (two games) removed from a five-game streak of showcasing a nice PPR floor (4+ catches in each of those games). He is not someone you need to count on, but could he return value?

It’s possible given the pass rate of this offense, but the ceiling is so capped (one game of 60+ yards) that the reward isn’t worth the risk. Thomas ranks outside of my top 20 for the week — there are more than a handful of options sitting on your waiver wire who I’d rather roll the dice on.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

• Spread: 49ers -14
• Total: 48
• 49ers implied points: 31
• Cardinals implied points: 17

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: We know that Brock Purdy is capable of being as efficient as any signal-caller in the league, and he should have no issues in doing that against a Cardinals defense that ranks among the very worst in QB contact rate and completion percentage against.

Need proof? Purdy (top-six QB in four of five games since the bye) has made two starts against the Cardinals in his career, and he has gone 35-of-41 for 461 yards and four scores (one rushing touchdown for good measure). That lands him as a top-five play at the position and a strong start in all formats.

Kyler Murray: The Murray story is all about perspective. He has as many rushing scores as passing scores during his four games this season (three). His overall opportunity count per game is more or less on track with years past, but Murray’s ypc is more than a yard below his career average, and his completion percentage is down 5.6 percentage points from what we normally expect.

He’s basically like a high school kid. Moody. Productive in spurts, disappointing just as often. His average finish this season is QB12, but counting on him to reach that number in a tough matchup isn’t something I’m willing to do. If you’re an underdog, Murray is the type of QB I’d bet on, but in a close matchup, he gives me the heebie geebies.

For the week, I prefer the other quarterback who is coming off a bye rather easily (Sam Howell) and would plug in the stream of the week in Matthew Stafford (vs. WAS) over him if I had the opportunity.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: Is it morally acceptable to be disappointed with a 153-yard performance? CMC ripped off a 72-yard carry to open last week’s win over Seattle, but it was Jordan Mason who punched in the three-yard score, and McCaffrey finished without multiple receptions for the first time this season.

Yes, you can be annoyed with last week. A little. But are kids from rich families really allowed to complain about not liking the destination of this year’s family cruise?

Relax people; McCaffrey should be back in the end zone this week and producing in a major way against a defense that allows the sixth-highest percentage of yards gained on the ground.

James Conner: Versatility in the past has been a way for Conner to overcome game script concerns, but we can’t count on that these days for the 28-year-old.

Over his past five games, the veteran has turned his 10 targets into six receiving yards, leaving us positioned to potentially experience a serious floor week. He is a big underdog against the top defense in terms of rushing yards allowed.

I still think it’s likely that Arizona gives him 16-18 touches, and that puts him in the Flex territory for me. Even so, he’s more in the Chuba Hubbard tier of empty calorie volume than he is the Joe Mixon volume that comes with a little more upside.

He’s better than a dart throw, but there’s no denying that a true bust week could be in the cards for the Cardinal.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk: Despite the recent heater from Deebo Samuel, if I had to bet my life on one 49ers receiver to earn a target in a big spot, it would still be Aiyuk. He has scored or seen nine targets in six straight games, a streak I expect to continue (maybe he does both) against the second-worst defense when it comes to heating up opposing quarterbacks.

There’s always risk in betting on a 49ers pass catcher in a big way, especially if this game is one-sided for the entire second half, but from a process standpoint, with Purdy playing at a high level, Aiyuk profiles as someone you can trust as a strong WR2 with top-five upside.

Deebo Samuel: With a rushing score in three straight and three TD catches over that stretch, it’s clear that the 49ers have taken off the kid gloves and officially transitioned to playoff mode. To “take your soul” mode. To “our players are better than yours, good luck tackling this monster when he gets a head start” mode.

MORE: Fantasy WR Start/Sit — How Should You Handle Deebo Samuel, Zay Flowers, and Gabe Davis?

That’s great news for Samuel managers; his usage is peaking at the perfect time. The Cardinals allow a league-high 4.4 red zone trips per game (15.8% more than any other team) and that puts Samuel on the list of players with the highest scoring equity in Week 15.

There were some lean weeks in the middle of the season, but you survived – now you thrive!

Marquise Brown: If you want to gamble on Hollywood still, that’s on you. The connection with Murray was a nice narrative to spin prior to the QB coming back, but with one 30-yard game in four efforts, what level of confidence can you possibly have in this spot against one of the better defenses in the league?

I’m generally an optimistic person, so if you’re looking for a silver lining, it’s that nearly 74% of yards gained against San Francisco come through the air (second-highest in the NFL). If you’re rolling the dice, I think you can do better than Brown in this spot – he occupies the same tier as George Pickens for me this week and sits outside of my top 35.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: This is the Kittle experience. Immediately following a three-game stretch where he caught 20 balls, Kittle has hauled in just 10 passes over his past three games. Of course, he doesn’t always need much in the volume department to pay off for his fantasy managers — the 44-yard TD last week was proof of that.

What can you expect from Kittle this week? I wish I could give you a definitive answer. After scoring five times in three games against the Cardinals, he gave us just a single target (nine yards) when these teams played in Week 4, despite a 96% snap share.

I’m trusting the process. If you drafted Kittle, you planned on playing him every week, and with the Cardinals owning the third-lowest pressure rate in the league, I’m not sweating Kittle being asked to block at an overwhelmingly high rate.

Trey McBride: This is obviously a tough spot, but unless you think the Cardinals are going to be completely muted on the offensive side of the ball, McBride should be able to get the job done. The second-year star has seen 48 targets over his past six games and has earned multiple red-zone looks in half of those contests despite the limitations of this offense as a whole.

He is pretty clearly Murray’s top option in the passing game at this point, and with the 49ers blitzing at the third-lowest rate this season, I see no reason to view McBride as anything but a top-seven TE who has the potential to post a strong PPR number.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -2.5
• Total: 49
• Cowboys implied points: 23.3
• Bills implied points: 25.8

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: In the preseason, I thought QB14 finishes for Prescott would be the norm — that’s what he gave us in Week 14, and it felt like the biggest disappointment of the week!

Game flow ended up being an issue for his value, a surprise given the opponent. As an underdog, I’d be surprised if that was the case this week. Considering that he was a top-three performer at the position in six of seven games prior to Week 14, there should be zero hesitation in plugging him in.

The Bills’ defense isn’t intimidating, but they do rank sixth in pressure rate despite a below-average blitz rate. Could that mean more quick hitters and screen passes? Whatever the case may be, I expect Prescott to “bounce back” and see his MVP-level play result in more fantasy points this week than last.

Josh Allen: While Prescott gets all of the flowers for how he is playing, it feels as if the football community never hesitates to put together a string of negative Allen highlights. Are the mistakes there? Yes. Does it matter for us? Not even a little.

Allen has been a top-10 QB in three straight games and in six of his past seven. For the season, despite the perceived struggles at times, he’s finished outside of the top 12 at the position just three times. The aggressiveness that results in mistakes is exactly what gives him an elite ceiling, and fantasy managers should be happy that he continues to push the envelope.

This is obviously a tough matchup as Dallas allows the third-fewest red zone trips per game and misses the fewest tackles on a per-game basis, but Allen’s floor is simply too high to consider doing anything drastic with him.

In fact, I have no problem with getting a little contrarian and calling his number in DFS. The narrative is going to be that a mistake-prone QB against an opportunistic defense is a bad equation, but what if the Cowboys are overly aggressive and Allen hits them for a few big plays?

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: The volume from early in the season is back, and Pollard appears set to peak at the perfect time for fantasy managers as the Cowboys play for seeding down the stretch. Since the Week 7 bye:

Week 8 vs. Rams: 13 touches
Week 9 at Eagles: 15
Week 10 vs. Giants: 15
Week 11 at Panthers: 16
Week 12 vs. Commanders: 19
Week 13 vs. Seahawks: 23
Week 14 vs. Eagles: 23

While the Rico Dowdle train is picking up steam, it should be noted that, in a huge game, Pollard out-snapped the impressive backup 59-23. Could we nitpick the six games this season under 4.0 yards per carry or just one play gaining more than 31 yards this season on 245 touches for a player whose explosive potential was supposed to be his calling card?

We could. I expected more from Pollard this season, and I’m sure you did too. But with things gradually moving in his direction, he should still be viewed as a stable piece that you can count on as you try to sprint to the finish line!

Rico Dowdle: I think it’s unlikely that Dowdle takes the lead role away from Pollard, but does he need to in order to have fantasy value? This offense is functioning at such a high level that it has the potential to land a pair of running backs in the top 30 at the position if the touch count is close.

At the bare minimum, you’ve given yourself another Flex option to consider during these must-win weeks by adding Dowdle to your bench. But what if Pollard gets dinged up?

MORE: Rico Dowdle Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 15

The Cowboys have their eyes set on big things this postseason and will want their starting offense intact, making a cautious approach the likely plan should Pollard, who has already set a career-high for touches in a season, experience any sort of pain.

If that were to happen, you’d have a top-15 running back on your hands and that might be undershooting it. When it comes to the rest of the season outlook, this Cowboys run game is going to increase in value.

Week 15 at BUF
Week 16 at MIA
Week 17 vs. DET

As good as the Cowboys’ defense is, all of those matchups are against an offense with high-end potential that Dallas would be best off trying to keep off the field.

Dowdle is flirting with low-end Flex value after setting a season high with 13 touches against the Eagles (52 yards and a touchdown). I’m not there just yet, but he is exactly the type of player that should be filling out your roster this time of year.

James Cook: The second-year back piled up 141 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in last week’s critical win over the Chiefs, as his usage continues to trend in a positive direction (100+ yards in four straight games).

The matchup with the Cowboys isn’t great, but given the versatility of Cook (16 targets over his past three games) and Buffalo’s creativity to get him in favorable spots, he should be locked into your RB2 role – especially with his 34-25 snap edge over Latavius Murray last week.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: The Prescott heater has meant elite production for his alpha target earner. Lamb has scored in five straight games and has reached double figures in the target department in five of his past seven games.

Fantasy greatness happens at the intersection of talent and opportunity – that’s the address at which Lamb is living these days. Like the rest of the world, I expect there to be points on the board in this game. That means Lamb has every chance to not only give us his sixth top-10 performance in an eight-game stretch, but to make me look good for ranking him as my top overall receiver this week.

Brandin Cooks: Like Prescott, Cooks wasn’t asked to do a ton last week in the 20-point win over Philadelphia. That doesn’t change my view of him as a viable WR2.

Cooks has found paydirt five times this season and has a 30+ yard catch in three of his past five games. He’s turning back the clock a bit like Odell Beckham Jr., but plays for a passing game that I trust more.

The downside of this matchup, and why Cooks is eight spots lower this week than last, is the fact that teams typically attack the Bills with short passes (6.4 opponent aDOT, roughly 1.5 yards below the league average).

Cooks is more of a vertical threat, so I’d expect his target count to be in the 4-6 range. That, of course, doesn’t mean he can’t be successful, it just creates a downside case that is rather easy to see happening.

Cooks is a fine play in season-long leagues, but my concerns about his floor/ceiling combination have him out of my DFS player pool for Week 15.

Stefon Diggs: With under 35 yards in three of his past four games (no 25+ yard receptions over that stretch), Diggs’s stock is falling at the worst time imaginable.

I still believe in the profile. After all, this is the same receiver in the same spot with the same level of health and support that rattled off 100 yards in five of his first six games this season.

I no longer have him as a top-five receiver, but he’s tucked inside my top 10 – 30 targets over the past three weeks in a game with shootout potential is more than enough to have me interested.

Gabe Davis: I think he’s a good player and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him have a massive performance at some point down the stretch of the regular season or in the playoffs, but betting on it from a fantasy perspective with your season on the line is a level of aggression I can’t support.

I have no problem with chasing a ceiling game, but I do have a problem with absorbing the risk that comes attached to that when we are discussing Davis. Over his past eight games, he has five finishes outside of the top 80 at the position.

He’s only been a top-65 receiver once this season in a game in which he didn’t find the end zone – I’m not tempting fate this time of year with Davis unless my back is truly against the wall.

Khalil Shakir: The run of three-WR sets in Buffalo appears to be coming to an end with Dawson Knox back in the mix, so you can go ahead and cut Shakir if he is on the back end of your roster.

Forget three receivers, last week, Davis and Shakir combined for 12 yards on three targets – I’m not sure this offense can stabilize two receivers. Good fantasy managers pivot when the situation has changed, and with their TE tandem back at full strength, Shakir doesn’t hold a role that is even remotely fantasy-friendly.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: Consecutive games with eight targets and a score or a 30+ yard catch in six of his past seven games. There is no way around labeling Ferguson as a season-defining player for the teams that took a chance on him back in August (or were quick to scoop him off of the waiver wire).

I think Cooks offers some nice upside in this offense, but it’s Ferguson who is clearly second in command behind Lamb when it comes to target equity. That role has him sitting as a top-five TE this week and for the remainder of the season (and next season!) for me.

Dalton Kincaid: As mentioned in the Shakir portion, the Bills went back to their two-TE sets with Knox back, and that means that Kincaid’s role wasn’t hurt in a significant way. Even with the veteran back on the field, Kincaid ran a route on 87.8% of Allen’s dropbacks last week.

I’m betting on that role more than I am worried that the rookie turned eight targets into just 5.1 fantasy points. Better days are ahead for Kincaid, and I expect them to start this week as Allen’s security blanket against the aggressive Cowboys.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Spread: Ravens -3.5
• Total: 43.5
• Ravens implied points: 23.5
• Jaguars implied points: 20

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: After finishing no better than QB14 in four of his last five games, Jackson turned on the fantasy charm last week against the Rams with a QB1 finish (316 passing yards with three touchdowns, not to mention 70 rushing yards).

The concern with Jackson is obvious – Baltimore doesn’t need him to produce video game numbers in order for them to succeed at a high level. That doesn’t mean he can’t.

I expect the game plan to be similar this week against a Jags defense that allows a league-high 74.2% of opponent yards to come through the air. Any week where I can project Jackson for a strong day with his arm, he profiles as a potential matchup wrecker, and that’s the case this week.

A second straight big week from Jackson would have the Ravens and fantasy managers alike sitting pretty. He might even wiggle his way into the serious MVP conversation if he can light up the Jaguars. You’re playing Jackson with confidence the rest of the way, even if there is some risk baked into his profile.

Trevor Lawrence: This time last week, it sounded as if Lawrence was on the wrong side of questionable. You wouldn’t know that by looking at his Week 14 box score that saw him dropback 57 times and continue to produce at a level well above what he had given fantasy managers for the 2.5 months prior.

Lawrence has been a top-12 performer at the position in four straight games and is finally checking the boxes we knew he was capable of. You can be impressed by his recent run and still bench him this week – that’s ok.

The mobility was clearly hindered in Week 14, and the Ravens allow 11.1% fewer yards per pass attempt than any other defense this season. Lawrence’s status as a top-15 signal-caller is no certainty, let alone him continuing to put up top-12 numbers.

It’s tough. You draft a QB with sky-high expectations and when he finally starts to live up to them, you have to bench him with your season on the line. I’m as pro-Lawrence as anyone and will be rooting for him in this spot, but I can’t rank a potentially physically compromised version of him as a fantasy starter in this spot.

Running Backs

Gus Edwards: The Gus Bus got the first carry of last week’s overtime win over the Rams and there ends the positive talk about what went on for Edwards managers.

He finished the contest with six carries for 15 yards and zero targets. We knew that the bottom was at risk of falling out of Edwards’ TD-reliant profile, but I didn’t see it collapsing that fast. He was third on this team in carries, and considering he is by far the least explosive option of those involved, I’m not sure he gets his lead role back this season.

Keaton Mitchell continues to impress, though we haven’t seen him get chances in close to the end zone. That’s your path to hope. At this moment, I’m still giving Edwards those lucrative touches inside the 10-yard line, but if that is his only path to success, you’re drawing to an inside straight at best.

At this point, Edwards is to be viewed the same as the other 5-10 backup running backs that get some run but offer too much downside to truly consider. He’s Jamaal Williams, but with an athletic quarterback that can handle the short-distance scoring role.

Keaton Mitchell: While Edwards got the first carry of the game last week, Mitchell recorded an eight-yard catch on the second play, making it clear that the team spent the bye week with the intent to get his explosive skill set more involved.

For the game, he out-snapped Edwards 25-20 (Justice Hill played 29 snaps, but he is the third-down back more than anything) and is clearly the Baltimore back to bet on moving forward.

That said, the volume is still a major concern, especially this week against a Jacksonville run defense that quietly allows the fourth-fewest yards on the ground per game.

Mitchell’s big-play ability is enough to get him into the Flex conversation with names like Jaylen Warren (at IND), but given the presence of Edwards and the abilities of Jackson, I’m not yet ready to give him RB2 consideration.

Travis Etienne Jr.: His value has dipped from where it stood through seven weeks, but with a score in multiple games and multiple receptions in every game this season, he’s still deserving of the “lineup lock” title.

My concern in a tough matchup like this is the fact that he doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 20 yards in five straight games. That keeps his ceiling lower than those he’s ranked near.

But with over 82% of the RB carries last week in Cleveland and the potential of Lawrence’s mobility being limited for the remainder of the regular season, Etienne’s status in your fantasy lineup need not be questioned.

I’ll take it one step further. The Jaguars are more than likely going to be battling for this division down to the wire of the fantasy season, and with a Carolina matchup sitting there in Week 17, I’ll say Etienne teams that make the fantasy Super Bowl close out the deal courtesy of a huge performance from their RB1!

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers: The rookie gave the Ravens an octopus late in Week 14 to give them the lead and earned 10 targets when all was said and done.

That’s now consecutive games with a touchdown – his first two scores in the USA – and his raw ability is starting to shine through. The floor remains scary, due to the low aDOT and the potential for the Raven run game to handle the scoring duties, but I feel safe in projecting him for 4-6 catches. In this scoring atmosphere, that lands him inside of my top 30 at the position.

I’m playing him over receivers like New York Jet Garrett Wilson, Washington Commander Terry McLaurin, and Cleveland Brown Amari Cooper – all of whom carry more name value but less week-over-week stability.

Odell Beckham Jr.: With a touchdown or 100 yards in four of his past five games, Beckham has turned back the hands of time lately. What do you think? Should he celebrate with a Yacht trip?

He has a 40-plus yard catch in three of his past four games and has scored in three of his past five. He’s not an alpha target earner anymore, but with TE Mark Andrews out of the mix, Baltimore doesn’t have any consistent target earner.

By relying on big plays, Beckham carries a low floor, but this is an offense I trust to put him in spots to succeed. I have him inside of my top 40 at the position, putting him on the Flex radar in a similar vein as Las Vegas Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers and Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett.

Christian Kirk: The core injury that he suffered in Week 13 resulted in him being placed on IR. Because of this, he will miss this week and two more games at the very minimum. That means, in most leagues, he can safely be cut. Every roster spot matters this time of year, making an opportunity to cut the fat off of your roster valuable.

Calvin Ridley: Another week with an active Zay Jones and another impressive target count for Ridley. He wasn’t able to do much with his 13 targets (7.3 fantasy points), but the volume remains bankable, and that is the name of the game this time of year.

Do I worry about this matchup? Of course, I do. But if Lawrence is healthier than he was last week, we are talking about a talented tandem in a spot where they will be asked to score.

Ridley currently ranks as my WR30 as I try to balance his upside with the low floor. If we get clean reports out of Lawrence’s camp, he could elevate to the WR2 conversation.

Zay Jones: It’s hard to earn 14 targets in a professional football game. It might be just as difficult to turn 14 targets into just 29 yards. With Kirk out for the next few weeks at the minimum, Jones is worthy of a roster spot, though he is still a ways away from my starting lineup.

MORE: Week 15 WR Waiver Wire Targets — Top Players To Add Include Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Jones

He’s yet to have a 25-yard reception this season, and if he isn’t going to be efficient with his opportunities (23 catches on 47 targets), he offers more risk than reward.

Parker Washington: The rookie WR was on the field for 62.5% of Lawrence dropbacks and scored for the second time in as many weeks. He did, however, earn just three targets on a day where Lawrence threw 50 passes and he coughed up a fumble to open the second half.

With Kirk on IR, Washington is currently a stash in deeper leagues but isn’t a Week 15 option in average-sized leagues.

That said, if you have a bye this week and want to get ahead of the game, Washington is an interesting add, even in those shallower leagues, with weather-proof games against the Buccaneers and Panthers to round out the fantasy season (and the Titans in Week 18 for good measure if your league extends that far).

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely: His versatility is not only a perfect fit for this Todd Monken offense, but it is a nightmare for opposing defenses. His 54-yard touchdown against the Rams last week looked like a broken coverage, and it was, but that was the result of confusion that occurred due to Likely running in motion.

Likely’s role in the short passing game helps stabilize his value, and his high-end athleticism elevates his ceiling to the point where he deserves to be started in all formats against a defense that ranks in the top quarter of the league in hurry rate, thus encouraging the type of short passes that allow Likely to thrive.

Evan Engram: It was only a matter of time. Engram was a viable tight end through the first 12 weeks of this season (4+ catches in every game this year), but he didn’t have a ceiling game to carry fantasy managers through the week.

Well, now he has two in a row. After not scoring prior, Engram has hauled in 20 of 21 targets for 177 yards and three scores over the past two weeks, as he single-handedly improves your playoff seeding.

Can he keep rolling? This is a tough matchup, but the Rams did have three pass catchers clear 13 PPR points in Baltimore last week. At the very least, Engram has proven to have a floor that won’t kill you, something that only a handful of tight ends can claim. You’re playing him with confidence in all formats and considering yourself lucky to do so!

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: Eagles -3.5
• Total: 48
• Eagles implied points: 25.8
• Seahawks implied points: 22.3

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: He was QB24 last week, and it hurt you in a major way if you needed his production for seeding purposes.

I beg of you to not hold a grudge and overthink this. Last week was the first time since Week 1 that Hurts wasn’t a top-11 quarterback, and I’ve actually been encouraged by his passing of late.

If Hurts is going to put up truly elite numbers, he’s going to have to be at his best as a thrower. He’s laid the foundation for that to be the case. Over his past three games, 59.3% of his targets have gone to either WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith.

All systems go for Hurts — don’t sweat the poorly timed performance.

Geno Smith: Smith played every game last season, but a groin injury cost him last week. The last time we saw him, Smith was busy torching the Dallas Cowboys for 334 yards and three touchdowns through the air. He also added a rushing score for good measure. Was that a flash in the pan or the start of a prolific run at the perfect time?

I’m afraid it’s the former.

Prior to that performance, Smith had one finish better than QB15 since Week 2. I can’t get him inside of my top 15, due to a lack of health and a viable floor, but the matchup is certainly right.

Dallas QB Dak Prescott, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy, and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen have torn up the Eagles (third-highest percentage of yards allowed come through the air) for 924 passing yards and eight scores over their past three games.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: Are things coming off the rails for Swift at the worst possible time or is this another one of those patience tests that you need to pass in order to bring home a championship?

Swift’s snap share has hardly outpaced that of Kenneth Gainwell during the consecutive ugly losses (27-25 last week, with three fewer routes run than his backup), and his seven targets over the past three weeks have netted a whopping 11 yards. But wait, it gets worse. A lot worse.

Swift hasn’t been a top 24 RB in four of his past five games, has four straight games under 15 carries, has only two games with a 12+ yard catch this season, and, after catching 18 balls from Weeks 4-6, he has a total of 13 receptions since.

As bad as things have been of late, he still plays for an elite offense and the schedule the rest of the way is favorable. The Seahawks are a bottom-10 red-zone defense, and next week, Swift faces a bottom-five defense in terms of yards per carry allowed.

Assuming those two weeks go well and you’re cruising into a Week 17 title game, you get Swift as a heavy favorite against the Cardinals. In Arizona’s past four losses:

Week 12: Kyren Williams (RB1)
Week 11: Devin Singletarty (RB4)
Week 9: Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt (Top 20 RBs)
Week 8: Gus Edwards (RB1)

Swift remains a starting option for me this week (RB18, ahead of James Cook), and for those on bye this week, Swift is flirting with my top 12 at the position for the final two weeks of the fantasy season.

Kenneth Walker III: After a two-game absence (oblique), Walker returned last week and held a 33-25 snap edge over RB Zach Charbonnet. He wasn’t productive in a brutal matchup against the 49ers (eight carries for 21 yards), but he did catch four of five targets for 33 yards.

I’d look for Walker’s stock to tick up as the fantasy playoffs progress, and that’s enough to land him on my Flex radar for this week – even in a tough matchup. I expect Walker to hold a nice touch advantage over Charbonnet, and with the Eagles owning the third-worst red zone defense, there’s a little more scoring equity here than you may assume.

Zach Charbonnet: This is a committee, and it seems pretty clear what Charbonnet’s role is (9-1 snap edge over Walker on third downs last season).

Is there a time and a place to plug in the rookie over the final few weeks? It’s possible, but I’m not bold enough to do it this week.

MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Week 15 Report

Yes, the passing game is the way to beat the Eagles, but with the Seahawks ranking 32nd in time of possession this season, I’m not at all confident that we see enough volume from this offense to support Charbonnet with your fantasy season on the line.

He’s well behind the Chase Brown/Rico Dowdle tier of secondary running back for me – both this week and for the final month.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: It felt as if the Cowboys held him in throughout — he finished with nine catches for 94 yards on 13 targets. This was his fifth game this season with at least 13 opportunities, and with the Seahawks having given up 18+ PPR points to a receiver in all four games during their current losing streak, Brown is a Tier 1 receiver that has a great chance to lead the position in fantasy points this week (my WR2).

DeVonta Smith: We saw his volume spike down the stretch of last season, and we are seeing more of the same this season. Over the past four weeks, he has seen 36 targets (only three fewer than Brown), and he has a 30+ yard catch in three of those games.

Mid-October was the last time Smith didn’t see 8+ targets or find the end zone — you can feel great about locking him in moving forward, and he’s my second favorite receiver in this game, just ahead of …

DK Metcalf: The touchdown last week was a thing of beauty and a reminder of what this monster can do, but with only five targets (two catches), he didn’t really get the chance to build on his dismantling of the Cowboys in Week 13.

And no, I’m not letting you blame this on Lock. He didn’t help, but let’s not act like Metcalf didn’t already have four games with three or fewer catches on his resume this season. The upside is no secret, and that is what keeps Metcalf as a lineup lock for me with the assumption that Smith is back under center.

But make no mistake about it — we are looking at a wide-range-of-outcomes receiver that has the potential to determine your matchup in either direction.

Tyler Lockett: With Lock calling the shots, Lockett was efficient last week, catching all six of his targets for 89 yards. The veteran has been a disappointment for much of this season (eight finishes outside of the top 35,) and without a 25-yard catch since Week 6, the splash play that has driven Lockett’s value seems to be a thing of the past.

Could he get loose against a vulnerable Eagles secondary? It’s certainly possible, but banking on it is dangerous, given the play under center. Lockett slides in just outside of my top 30 at the position, ranking alongside other veteran receivers that have risk like Amari Cooper and Adam Thielen.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie led the Seahawks in targets with seven in the loss to the 49ers, but he was unable to do much of anything with them (25 yards, sixth on the team). The talent is something that is worth investing in long term for dynasty managers, but counting on him during the most important stages of the 2023 fantasy season isn’t something I’m comfortable doing.

Over the past five weeks, Smith-Njiba’s average positional finish is WR48. With spotty red-zone usage and a low-yardage floor (under 65 yards in every game this season), there just aren’t enough paths to success to justify putting him on your Flex radar.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: After missing three games, Goedert caught all four of his targets for 30 yards in the blowout loss against the Cowboys. The stat line itself wasn’t overwhelming, but he was clearly a target to open the game and ran a route on 92.9% of Hurts’ dropbacks, signs that very much point to him being an option you can trust for the remainder of the season.

Goedert’s a floor play. The fact that he’s been held to 50 or fewer yards in eight of his 10 games this season is worrisome when it comes to his upside. Still, with 51 targets over his past eight healthy games and as an important part of a potent offense, there’s no reason to worry about Goedert.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!