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    Week 14 NFL Offense Rankings: A Change at the Top While the Bills and Broncos Are Trending Up

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    We are 13 weeks into the season, which gives us plenty of data for our proprietary NFL offense rankings. Where does your favorite team sit?

    As we look ahead to Week 14 of the season, where do each of the 32 teams stand in our 2024 NFL offense rankings?

    PFN’s offense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.

    Each team will be given a numerical score that we convert to a traditional letter grade. While some teams may share a letter grade, the order below is presented in order. That’s to say that not all “B” grades are exactly the same — those teams reside in the same tier, but the order in which they are listed serves as an indicator as to who sits atop that specific tier.

    The Detroit Lions have inched ahead of the Baltimore Ravens by the slimmest of margins at the top of the board, grading out two-tenths of a point stronger. These two offenses are nearly four full points ahead of the third-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers and are the clear class of the NFL on this side of the ball.

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    1) Detroit Lions

    All stats referenced in this article are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.

    • Grade: A-

    The favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl have appeared unstoppable for the majority of the season, and it’s only getting better with time (just ask the Jacksonville Jaguars).

    Behind David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions have the third-best rushing offense by EPA, something that was expected to some degree entering 2024. Jared Goff’s excellence, sans the Week 10 outlier against the Houston Texans (five interceptions), has been the surprising component of this group and has them pacing the league in points scored per drive through 13 weeks.

    Amon-Ra St. Brown is on the shortlist for the best receiver in the NFL, and that elevates the floor of Detroit’s offense. If Sam LaPorta can regain his 2023 form and/or Jameson Williams can develop into a consistent target earner, something we saw breadcrumbs of on Thanksgiving, Detroit’s offense has the potential to give this starved fan base the postseason run it desires.

    2) Baltimore Ravens

    • Grade: A-

    Baltimore gave up its seat on the PFN Offensive Ranking throne in Week 13, a label they could take back by season’s end.

    The Ravens lead the league in EPA per play and red-zone efficiency — not a surprise when you consider that they have an MVP candidate flanked by an Offensive Player of the Year front-runner, a tandem that puts defenses in a position to decide between bad and worse near the goal line.

    Diontae Johnson has yet to work his way into this offense’s regular mix, and while that might be a work in progress, the addition of a veteran receiver to an otherwise thin group should only help.

    3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    • Grade: B+

    The Buccaneers had lost four straight before earning a pair of victories in layup spots (New York Giants and Carolina Panthers), and while things rarely come easy, Baker Mayfield has this offense hitting all the right notes.

    For the season, Tampa Bay is the third-best unit in red-zone efficiency and second-best on converting third downs, two metrics that create a stable offensive floor that traditionally allows teams to be competitive at a higher level.

    Tampa Bay got Mike Evans back on the perimeter in Week 12 and is a team poised to finish the regular season hot with a favorable end to its schedule (Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints).

    4) Washington Commanders

    • Grade: B+

    The Hail Mary to beat the Chicago Bears will be one of the highlights of the season, but that fortunate play undershoots just how good this offense has been. Jayden Daniels was in the MVP conversation, and while the splash plays get the attention of TV shows, how about his ability to do simple things at an elite level?

    Through 13 weeks, the Washington Commanders rank fourth in turnover rate (lowest), which puts this offense in position to succeed as often as any — fueling their third-place ranking in points per drive.

    The Commanders put themselves in a bind with three straight losses (Weeks 10-12), which creates pressure for them to rediscover their early-season success sooner rather than later. They showed that in a Week 13 42-19 pounding of the Tennessee Titans.

    That said, if Daniels (ribs) can round into his September-October form, there’s no reason to worry about this side of the ball in Washington. This isn’t a flash in the pan — the Commanders’ offense is here to stay for 2024 and for many years to come.

    5) Buffalo Bills

    • Grade: B

    Josh Allen lost two of his primary weapons this offseason.

    He hasn’t blinked.

    The Buffalo Bills offense ranks second in points per drive and third in EPA per play; impressive numbers by themselves, but even better when you consider that Buffalo has yet to get much from Amari Cooper (wrist) and is operating around recent injuries to Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid as well.

    James Cook (11 rushing touchdowns this season after pushing just four carries across the line in his first two seasons) and Ray Davis create a versatile backfield that gives this squad the type of versatility that defenses are having trouble handling.

    Allen has yet to truly embrace the aggressive running style that we’ve seen in the past. If he is saving that for the winter, it stands to reason that the best days are ahead for Buffalo’s offense.

    6) Arizona Cardinals

    • Grade: B

    The Arizona Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. in April with the intent to make this offense a powerhouse. While the rookie has had an up-and-down season, the balance of this unit is nothing short of elite.

    Despite some recent struggles, the Cardinals rank in the 80th percentile in yards per play, points per drive, rush success rate, and third-down avoidance through 13 weeks.

    This may not be the perfect team, but the offense gives Arizona the ability to contend with anyone in the NFL. That is evident by its topsy-turvy season: a 2-4 start, four straight wins, and two consecutive losses.

    It’s nothing if not exciting, and this offense is the driving force behind this team’s competitive nature.

    7) Green Bay Packers

    • Grade: B

    Jordan Love isn’t afraid to take a chance. While that creates some downside, his style of play has paid off more often than not up to this point in the season.

    The Green Bay Packers rank second to only the Ravens in terms of yards per play, a result of Love’s potential and Josh Jacobs’ nice welcome to Wisconsin (4.5 yards per carry, up from 3.5 last season with the Raiders).

    The 15th-ranked red-zone touchdown rate is dragging down Green Bay’s overall grade in the way that a slacker does during a group project. That hindrance could end its season prematurely if not rectified.

    8) Kansas City Chiefs

    • Grade: B-

    The Kansas City Chiefs are the target of more criticism than praise because they aren’t as explosive as our eyes want them to be. But championships aren’t won through highlight shows.

    The Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes tandem has this offense picking up third downs at the NFL’s highest rate while ranking fourth in pass success rate, a ranking that will surprise most.

    The stats look great, and it’s clear that the best days are ahead — particularly with Isiah Pacheco back and leading the backfield. Although Kansas City seems to be walking a thin line in terms of close victories, there’s no denying that this offense has put together an impressive résumé, one that looks more likely to progress than regress with time.

    Three-peat? Sportsbooks have it labeled as the most likely outcome for the 2024 season as we sit here in December.

    9) Cincinnati Bengals

    • Grade: B-

    The 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals might be the most explosive team in the history of the sport with such a poor record. They’ve put at least 27 points on the board in five of their past six losses, and Joe Burrow is playing as well as he ever has despite the lack of team success.

    Through 13 weeks, Cincinnati ranks third in pass success rate, with Burrow pacing for a career-high touchdown total. He’s been nothing short of great despite a run game that hasn’t been very supportive (29th in success rate).

    So much about this offense looks the part of a playoff team (fifth in third-down conversion rate and second in red-zone efficiency), but there are two sides of the ball, which is what has Cincinnati struggling to find its footing.

    10) Los Angeles Rams

    • Grade: B-

    The Los Angeles Rams have had to navigate injuries to both of their star receivers and have done so in ways that were not expected this preseason.

    This season, Kyren Williams has Los Angeles’ offense ranking second in rush success rate, behind only the mighty Lions. The respect Williams demands from opposing defenses has allowed the Rams to rank first in third-down avoidance — they are constantly operating from ahead of the chains, a common trait of successful offenses.

    With both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp operating at full strength and regularly accounting for the vast majority of this team’s receiving yards, Los Angeles has plenty of upward mobility in its quest for the division title.

    11) San Francisco 49ers

    • Grade: C+

    Brock Purdy is leading the third-best yards-per-play offense, an incredible accomplishment given the injuries that he had to navigate in the first half of the season.

    Christian McCaffrey made his season debut in the San Francisco 49ers’ Week 10 win but was lost for the remainder of the regular season in the Week 13 loss to the Bills. The All-Pro RB was joined on injured reserve by featured backup Jordan Mason, leaving this offense a shell of itself.

    The 49ers were as efficient as any last season, and the impressive season from Jauan Jennings has allowed San Francisco to keep its head above water up to this point. But one cannot but wonder about the final month of the season given the skeleton crew that this team is now running out there on offense.

    12) Minnesota Vikings

    • Grade: C+

    I’m old enough to remember when we thought that a Sam Darnold-led offense had no chance at producing average metrics, let alone threaten the top 10. The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings haven’t been an elite unit since their Week 6 bye, but they remain an efficient group that can succeed at an above-average rate.

    With T.J. Hockenson proving to be at full strength in a huge Week 12 overtime win over the Bears, is it possible that Minnesota’s offense improves upon its strong marks in both red-zone efficiency (19th, trending in a decent direction) and pass success rate (13th)?

    It’s certainly in play, especially with a relatively light schedule on tap over the next month.

    The Vikings might not be as potent as what we saw early in the season, but this isn’t a New Orleans Saints situation where a cliff is coming.

    13) Atlanta Falcons

    • Grade: C+

    Thus far, the Atlanta Falcons rank fourth in the league in rush success rate and 11th in yards per play. Their versatile attack makes them viable moving forward if Kirk Cousins can cure his ails from the past three weeks.

    Bijan Robinson is a special talent, and Drake London has proven to be a true alpha top target. Atlanta’s secondary pieces in Tyler Allgeier, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts give this unit the upside to threaten the top five in our grading system, especially with the Raiders, Giants, Commanders, and Panthers to close the season.

    14) Philadelphia Eagles

    • Grade: C+

    Can the Philadelphia Eagles peak at the perfect time instead of falling off a cliff? The highlight machine that is Saquon Barkley has opened up offensive versatility that simply didn’t exist last season. He has this squad ranking first in EPA per rush attempt, a rate that was improved by his handling of the Ravens in the fourth quarter of the Week 13 win.

    The Eagles can produce against anyone, but if the offensive line remains a liability when it comes to pass blocking (they certainly have the running portion of things figured out), the upside will be capped.

    Thus far, Philadelphia is the worst team at preventing pressure when not blitzed, a flaw that could undo all the good it is capable of doing. That said, with playmakers at every level, counting this offense out isn’t a wise move.

    15) Miami Dolphins

    • Grade: C

    Tua Tagovailoa has completed over 70% of his passes in every game since returning to action (80.4% against the Packers on Thanksgiving). That level of efficiency has resulted in the Miami Dolphins digging out of a points-per-drive hole that was created with their QB1 sidelined (up to 20th).

    No NFL offense allows pressure less often when not blitzed than the Dolphins, a scheme that allows Tagovailoa to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. De’Von Achane has looked nothing short of special since Tua’s return, but when trying to project forward, the nagging wrist injury to Tyreek Hill is concerning for an offense that relies on him in a similar fashion in which the Golden State Warriors do Steph Curry.

    I don’t think there’s much debate here. Miami is the most likely team in the middle third of these rankings to elevate in a significant way as we come down the stretch of the regular season.

    16) Seattle Seahawks

    • Grade: C-

    The Seattle Seahawks opened the season with three straight wins, and while they haven’t hit that form since, there have been enough sparks to remain optimistic about the offense’s potential.

    Geno Smith has Seattle’s offense ranking 12th in pass success rate and is in a good spot with Jaxon Smith-Njigba amid a Year 2 breakout that gives them upside to round out this season and for years to come.

    Kenneth Walker III has been good at making the most of a bad situation (the Seahawks rank 30th in rush success rate despite the talents of their lead back). There are talented playmakers all over the field when Seattle comes to town, but consistency has been an issue over the past month.

    In the middle portion of these rankings, the Seahawks’ upside elevates them above the rest, even if the floor is low.

    17) New Orleans Saints

    • Grade: C-

    The Saints were tracking toward being the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf through two weeks. Now, ranking 17th feels optimistic.

    Alvin Kamara has overcome offensive line limitations to get New Orleans ranking seventh in rush success rate. Will that sustain as the season wears on for a 29-year-old back with over 2,000 touches on his résumé?

    Derek Carr isdoing t he best he can, but with playmakers dropping like flies around him, New Orleans’ 26th-ranked pass success rate more likely than not to stick the rest of the way — unless you think that Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to score touchdowns at an elite level from all levels on the field.

    18) Denver Broncos

    • Grade: C-

    Bo Nix is an exciting watch, but is that best when it comes to succeeding at a high level? The knock on Mahomes these days is that he leads a boring offense and — well, they never lose games.

    Nix’s athleticism has the Denver Broncos posting the third-lowest sack rate, but that coin has two sides. As he looks to create, things can spiral out of control in a hurry, thus resulting in Denver ranking 20th in EPA per dropback, although that number is heavily impacted by early-season struggles.

    Much like the Bears with Caleb Williams, I think there have been enough breadcrumbs laid thus far to give you long-term optimism, and that was the primary goal of 2024. Playoff contention is simply playing with house money.

    It’s been an impressive run for Nix. If he can build on it, this unit will grade as an above-average one moving forward with the arrow pointing straight up for 2025 thanks to Sean Payton giving this offense creative upside that few franchises can offer.

    19) Jacksonville Jaguars

    • Grade: C-

    The Jaguars have underachieved this season, and their offense, while not prohibitive, hasn’t taken the step we had projected under Trevor Lawrence.

    Through nine weeks, this was the third-worst third-down unit in the league, and the inability to sustain drives is often tied to team success. To the surprise of no one, Mac Jones has been unable to improve upon those numbers, and with him under center for the foreseeable future, color me pessimistic on this team improving its current grade.

    Jacksonville is limping to the finish line, but not all is doom and gloom. The Jaguars have the 11th-best success rate on the ground behind their tandem of Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. The upside is limited for the remainder of this season, with Christian Kirk out for the season and Lawrence’s status up in the air at best, but there are reasons to believe in a better finish in 2025.

    20) Pittsburgh Steelers

    • Grade: C-

    We are six starts into the Russell Wilson era, and the hope is that the veteran improves the 29th-ranked red-zone offense. Najee Harris is running as hard as he has at any point in his career, which gives the Pittsburgh Steelers offense the potential to move into the top half of the league by season’s end if he can shake this ankle injury.

    Pittsburgh does what Pittsburgh always does — not beat themselves under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers added Mike Williams at the trade deadline to add upside to a unit that checks the basic boxes (13th in third-down rate and sixth in turnover percentage). He’s yet to make an impact outside of the only target he has seen for the team this season, but could they be saving Williams for a big spot?

    The Steelers hung 44 points on the Bengals in the Week 13 win, and while the opponent certainly factored into that, the idea of this team having that sort of ceiling can make them as dangerous as anyone in the final month of the regular season.

    21) Indianapolis Colts

    • Grade: D+

    The Indianapolis Colts appear committed to Anthony Richardson for the rest of 2024, not long after they committed to Joe Flacco. While it took some time, this is ultimately the right call in terms of offensive upside and future development.

    The Week 11 win over the Jets was a nice reward for going back to the second-year quarterback. But there’s no secret as to what has Indy ranking this low — the QB play has been a mess, which we caught another glimpse of in Weeks 12-13.

    Due to Richardson’s early-season struggles, the Colts’ offense ranks 26th in pass success rate, and Flacco didn’t improve it when given the opportunity.

    Josh Downs looks the part of a legitimate WR1, giving Indianapolis’ offense an upward trajectory if the QB situation can get figured out long term. I’m not buying more 2024 stock for this offense, especially with Downs ailing, but if 2025 shares are available, I’m interested.

    22) New York Jets

    • Grade: D+

    We are ranking based on what has happened, and in 2024, Aaron Rodgers isn’t cutting it. Not even close.

    The New York Jets have struggled to reach the mid-20s in points. Week 10 could be argued as symbolic of rock bottom for the Jets, having scored six points against a below-average Cardinals defense.

    That said, this is the 12th-best third-down offense in the NFL. That ranking could easily spike if the nonverbal communication of Rodgers and Davante Adams returns to form from their days in Green Bay, something we caught a glimpse of with an early eight-yard touchdown in Week 13.

    That’s a big if and not one that we can bank on at this point. Rodgers has said that if he plays next season, he’d like it to be for Gang Green (we’ll see). For better or worse, the Jets will occupy the headlines for the foreseeable future.

    23) Los Angeles Chargers

    • Grade: D+

    The Los Angeles Chargers are never going to grade out well for us because Jim Harbaugh doesn’t want them to. But he’s slowly opening things up, and it looks good on Justin Herbert.

    Really good.

    LA’s passing metrics have spiked a bit lately, but the design is a conservative one (lowest turnover rate) and figures to lean on its defense so long as it is having success in doing so.

    J.K. Dobbins lit up the fantasy football world during the first few weeks, but his efficiency was regressing prior to his injury. And with the Chargers ranked 27th in rush success rate at reasonable health, there appears to be more downside than rebound potential moving forward.

    Herbert is a well-above-average quarterback capable of moving Los Angeles up these rankings if he continues to be unleashed as we approach the postseason.

    This is an offense I’m intrigued by given the recent trends and will be tracking closely moving forward. The Chargers’ strong defense can put the offense in a position to succeed, and if that continues, a move inside our top 15 is certainly possible.

    24) Houston Texans

    • Grade: D+

    The C.J. Stroud brand has quickly become a safe offense, and with the league’s 10th-lowest turnover rate, that much has remained. For the season, Houston allows sacks at the 10th-highest rate, a flaw that caps its upside, especially with the receiver injuries that have limited the explosive nature of the offense.

    With Joe Mixon running as well as he ever has, the hope is that Houston hits its stride as the weather turns and finishes the year as an above-average unit.

    25) Dallas Cowboys

    • Grade: D+

    Dak Prescott is out for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury suffered in Week 9. It’s a significant loss, but the Dallas Cowboys’ offense had already been struggling with him.

    Through nine weeks, Dallas ranked 27th in pass success rate and 31st in red-zone touchdown rate, metrics that are trending in the wrong direction with Cooper Rush at the helm.

    CeeDee Lamb is special, but the lack of offensive balance has undone this unit. The Cowboys haven’t been able to pick up yards on the ground this season, and the lack of a secondary pass catcher to the degree that they went out and acquired Jonathan Mingo at the deadline is a problem.

    26) Chicago Bears

    • Grade: D

    I think we’ve seen enough from Caleb Williams to say that he is likely the QB of the future for the Bears, but not all growth is linear. It’s certainly been a bumpy ride.

    There have been moments, but the fourth-worst third-down offense is never going to grade well for us or have success at a high level. That flaw likely improves with time as Chicago’s rookie signal-caller adjusts to the speed of the pro game, but it’s been prohibitive up to this point.

    On the bright side, this is already an elite red-zone offense (third-best), not typically a calling card for an offense with this many moving pieces. The current grade isn’t strong, but the Bears are playing for the future, and there are some pieces in place that I think are here to stay.

    27) Carolina Panthers

    • Grade: D

    The Panthers are struggling across the board and will soon have to make a long-term decision on Bryce Young. He’s looked better by our QB+ metrics since returning to the starting lineup, but the overall numbers suggest that Carolina is a long way away from fielding a competitive team.

    Through 13 weeks, Carolina ranks 27th on third-down conversion rate and 30th in EPA per dropback. I like the trio of young pass catchers on this offense, and Jonathon Brooks, having just made his NFL debut, is promising.

    The cupboard isn’t bare, but the Panthers need to figure out how to cook properly with what they have in-house over the second half of the season. Young’s encouraging outing against Kansas City is a good start.

    28) Las Vegas Raiders

    • Grade: D

    Without promise at the QB position, you’re drawing dead in the NFL these days. The Las Vegas Raiders are as good an example of that as anyone.

    Las Vegas ranks dead last in both turnover rate and rush success rate. Defenses have no reason not to be aggressive against them, especially following the Davante Adams trade.

    The Raiders’ offense doesn’t have a calling card, which makes moving much higher in these rankings anytime soon unlikely. Raiders fans would be wise to get a jump start on scouting the incoming QB class, as their 28th ranking in yards per play this season feels like a ceiling for the roster as currently constructed.

    29) New England Patriots

    • Grade: D

    The New England Patriots are a unique case. Their 2024 numbers are a hot mess (28th in EPA per play and 30th in yards per play), but the willingness to admit as much and commit this season to developing Drake Maye is something that this fan base can get excited about.

    The rookie has taken his lumps thus far, but he’s also shown promise by way of his athleticism and processing speed. Maye is far from a finished product, and there will likely be more downs than ups over the final stretch.

    But New England is making it clear that it’s willing to lose the battle that is 2024 with the hope of winning the war that is the next handful of seasons.

    Of the teams toward the bottom of our rankings, this is the one with the most upward mobility over the next 12 months. Given that winning big in 2024 was never in the cards for the Patriots, that trajectory makes this season a success, even given this disaster of a grade.

    30) New York Giants

    • Grade: D-

    The New York Giants had a Daniel Jones problem, and while they are now free of that, there is still the matter of landing the right man for the job of leading this rebuild.

    This season, the Giants are the worst offense in points per drive, thanks in large part to the lowest red-zone TD rate in the league — they rarely get there in the first place, and when they do, it’s a struggle to capitalize.

    Malik Nabers certainly looks like a special player at a position that is growing in value across the NFL. Yet, without consistent QB play, New York’s offense will be relegated to the bottom five in our rankings for the foreseeable future — just ask the star rookie receiver; he’ll let you know!

    31) Tennessee Titans

    • Grade: D-

    The Tennessee Titans lack direction right now. Until that is rectified, there’s not much upward mobility here.

    Is Will Levis the answer under center? He’s certainly looked better since returning from the shoulder injury, but he’s going to need to sustain that development to convince this franchise that he is their long-term answer.

    Tennessee trading away DeAndre Hopkins is a clear sign that it’s waiving the white flag in terms of short-term development.

    Do we trust this team to take the proper steps moving forward? Only time will tell on that front. But as far as 2024 is concerned, Tennessee ranks 31st in EPA per dropback and 30th in turnover rate, deficiencies that need to be addressed if it wants to trend toward league average.

    32) Cleveland Browns

    • Grade: D-

    At the very least, Jameis Winston has made this team a fun watch, and while he won’t overcome the damage of Deshaun Watson, this is a drastically different Cleveland Browns team whose offense, at the very least, offers a wider range of outcomes now than it did early on.

    It’s almost difficult to describe how poor this profile is. While Winston is a fun watch, he’s far from a stabilizing force for an offense that currently ranks dead last in EPA and points per drive (hard to do given the recent production of this passing game).

    I just ran through the optimistic outlook for the Patriots — the Browns couldn’t be more different. They are unsure of how to fix the QB position, the WR corps is limited, and the running game hinges on the superhuman healing abilities of Nick Chubb.

    There was some hope this offseason that this could be a league-average unit. For 2024, that hope is gone, and I’m not sure what changes to keep me from writing a similar profile this time next season.

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