We have officially entered the grind time of the fantasy football season. This is the time of year when managers separate themselves from the pack, use the nine weeks of data that we have, and thrive.

If you’re not ready for the sprint to the finish line, you’ll get left behind. If you’re ready, I would like to cordially invite you to a trip through the Week 10 slate with me. Free of charge. Statistically based analysis for every player, hot takes, and, if you’re lucky, maybe some very dated pop culture references.

You in?

Bye Weeks: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Philadelphia Eagles

Jump Around This Article

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -4
Total: 39
Panthers implied points: 17.5
Bears implied points: 21.5

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young: The rookie has had his moments this season, but even in a plus-matchup during a tough week at the position, he doesn’t need to be on your radar. Young hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game this season and has three times as many multi-INT games as he does multi-TD games.

Dynasty managers can find comfort in the Panthers letting him learn with live reps and thus speeding up his development process, but his days as a reliable fantasy asset aren’t coming in the short term.

Justin Fields: He was injured during Chicago’s Week 6 loss against the Vikings and has missed the three games since. The Tyson Bagent story was a good one, but Fields is the QB for this team when healthy enough to take the field, and fantasy managers hurting at the position certainly hope that is Thursday night against the Panthers.

Carolina has held four of their past five opponents under 240 passing yards (three of them failed to clear 140 passing yards), but that’s in large part due to them ranking 25th in yards per carry with half of the touchdowns they’ve allowed coming on the ground (fifth most). The strong passing numbers don’t really worry me because that’s not where Fields separates himself in our game.

I’ve got Fields as an easy top-10 option should he return this week, with the thought being that his career-best 7.4 yards per attempt can make him efficient enough through the air (against a bottom-five defense in QB hurry rate) to produce. Of course, the high floor that his athletic ability provides should show up, too.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard: For a second consecutive week, Hubbard was the unquestioned leader in Thomas Brown’s backfield over Miles Sanders – a 46-18 edge in snaps played and a 30-11 edge in routes run.

The concern with Hubbard isn’t the role but rather what he is doing with it. In those two games under Brown, he is averaging 2.8 yards per carry, a number that drops another half-yard if you remove his longest carry over that stretch. That’s not an ideal trend to take into a matchup with a defense that is allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry and is largely beaten in the passing game.

Hubbard fits very nicely into the tier of “volume drives my value, even if it’s just me falling forward 14-18 times a game for a below-average offense” running back. Yes, in my rankings, that’s how I have it highlighted. If you’re curious, he’s joined by the following world beaters in this range of mediocrity:

He’s a Flex play for me this week with significant risk built into his profile. His one redeeming quality in Week 10 — I’m not as concerned about game script as I would normally be.

Miles Sanders: “He’s Just Not That Into You.”

Is that a rom-com from almost 15 years ago? Yes. Does it offer insight? Also, yes.

“Sometimes we are so focused on finding our happy ending that we don’t learn how to read the signs.”

Our happy ending for drafting Sanders as a late-fourth/early-fifth-round pick would be Brown succumbing to the $25.4 million contract that Sanders signed this summer and featuring him enough for us to justify playing him. We want to believe that Sanders’ five targets on 11 routes last week was a glimmer of hope.

Read the signs, people. They aren’t hidden. Reading into that usage in the passing game is just like Ginnifer Goodwin taking everything her dates say the wrong way in that 2009 classic. You’re seeing what you want to see, hearing what you want to hear, and ignoring something that is obvious for those a step or two removed from the situation.

Thomas Brown just isn’t that into Sanders. Offenses in Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Seattle are consistently getting multiple backs involved. They have a plan for a committee, and while that’s frustrating, some usage is better than no usage this time of year as we navigate injuries and byes.

Sanders doesn’t have that. Don’t misread this relationship. Learn from the movie and move on. It’s never a bad time to do the right thing.

Sanders is my RB42 this week and even lower in my rest-of-season rankings, as I’d rather have a handcuff back for Christian McCaffrey or Travis Etienne than a secondary piece in an offense I don’t trust.

Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

It feels like forever ago since Herbert ran for 179 yards on 28 carries across two games early in October, but that was the last time we saw him. He is eligible to finally return from an ankle injury that landed him on IR, but he is unlikely to play this week.

As encouraging as those two games were, they were much the result of the game script (a win in Washington and a close loss to Denver). When Chicago was struggling to remain competitive through September, Herbert was averaging under 10 touches per game – without a touchdown.

D’Onta Foreman, RB, Chicago Bears

He worked well ahead of Roschon Johnson, handling the entire first drive and finishing with a 39-20 snap edge over the rookie. The usage on the ground was encouraging (20 carries), but without a target to show for his efforts, his role figures to be in danger if/when Herbert returns to full health.

Foreman’s usage is that of a two-down back and is, thus, the player I’d handcuff Herbert with if you’re going in that direction. That role, however, is the one that dries up the fastest when Herbert returns (potentially next week).

As for this week, Foreman jumps up and essentially fills Herbert’s spot in my ranks with the news that Herbert is likely to sit. That lands him as a low-end RB2, so feel free to squeeze one more week of usage out of him!

Roschon Johnson: Despite a significant snap disparity, he ran more routes (13-11) than Foreman in the loss in New Orleans and is angling toward being a specialist down the stretch.

For the season, he has caught 15 of 17 targets, but without a 10-yard catch this season and no path to volume, Johnson isn’t a must-roster player. He’s basically Samaje Perine – is Perine rostered in your league?

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen: Is water starting to find its level a bit here? After a month-long stretch where Thielen’s average weekly ranking was WR9, he has not been a top-30 performer at the position in consecutive weeks (16.6 fantasy points on his 13 catches).

The volume and efficiency should continue to be viewed as strengths and land him easily inside of my “must start” tier at WR. Any offense led by a rookie is going to struggle with consistency, but Thielen’s role is rock solid and deserves your trust.

DJ Moore: We can write off some of Moore’s recent struggles due to the Fields injury, but the fact that he has failed to clear 55 receiving yards in six of nine games this season is concerning.

Weeks 4-5: 361 receiving yards with four TDs
All other games: 374 receiving yards with one TD

The upside is no secret when Fields is right, and this matchup doesn’t scare me, but the floor has me ranking him behind receivers like Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson, who check in as “safer” plays for me. With Fields active, I have Moore ranked as a low-end WR2.

Darnell Mooney: Week 9 saw him set season-highs in catches (five), targets (six), and receiving yards (82) – good to see, but nothing you need to act on. He scored Chicago’s first TD of the season and hasn’t found pay dirt since, a major flaw in the profile for a player who has yet to establish himself as a consistent target earner.

I’m out on Mooney long-term, but if you’re stuck, I understand rolling the dice on Mooney (35+ yard grab in three of his past four games) if Fields is back under center. The Panthers blitz at a below-average rate, a defensive philosophy that gives Mooney time to run downfield.

How lucky do you feel? He’s my WR44 this week.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: With a score or 10 targets in four of his past five games, Kmet has thrust himself toward the top of the TE blob (the seemingly endless supply of similar tight ends).

As is the case with all blobbers (yep, official term for those who reside in that gross tier), the floor is terrifying. Kmet has five games this season with under 45 receiving yards, giving fantasy managers little hope if the scoring dries up.

I have Kmet as my TE12 this week and give you the green light to stream him – as long as you understand that it’s unlikely that Kmet is a long-term fantasy solution.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 43.5
Colts implied points: 22.5
Patriots implied points: 21

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: As it turns out, the power of the Panthers playing ugly games is a stronger force than Minshew Mania. In an easy win last week, Minshew’s 26 passes picked up just 127 yards and one score, letting QB streamers down in a devastating fashion.

I’m back in–cautiously. With plenty of firepower on bye this week, it’s possible that you have to dig deep to fill out your lineup, and I think you could do worse. I’d feel better if Josh Downs is active, but the general spot is favorable — he owns a sub-7.0-yard aDOT (under 4.0 yards last weekend), and the Patriots rank fourth in blitz rate.

With a potent run game and a short aDOT, Minshew’s profile is that of a blitz beater. Don’t get me wrong, he’s far from safe, but (again, if Downs is active) this roster has enough talent supporting his specific set of skills to land him inside my top 15.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: BAM!

The trade window you were warned about for Taylor slammed shut last week in Carolina, with JT out-snapping Zack Moss 45-13 and holding a 21-3 edge in the routes department. Taylor scored and was trusted with 23 touches, a role I see him sustaining the rest of the way.

It was a down week in terms of efficiency (2.6 YPC), but he did hit 6+ fantasy points as a pass catcher for the third time in four games, and that gives him access to production that only a handful of RBs can touch. With his usage trending in the direction of his heyday, Taylor is an RB1 for me — both this week and for the remainder of the season.

Zack Moss: It’s possible that Moss busts a long gain (20+ yard rush in five of his past seven games), but he has been relegated to the reserve role and should be considered as nothing more than a handcuff option.

He’s a rich man’s version of AJ Dillon. That is, he’s not a standalone option as the backup in a questionable offense. I prefer him to Dillon because he has proven capable of succeeding with the lead role this season, but neither is sniffing starting lineups while occupying the RB2 slot on the depth chart.

Rhamondre Stevenson: If you looked at your fantasy box score at the end of Sunday, you were thrilled with Stevenson’s production: 129 yards and a touchdown.

What’s not to like?

The Patriots. That’s what not to like. Stevenson was clearly written into the script (given an opportunity on five straight plays during the first drive) and had a touchdown run that picked up more yards than he had in any game this season — he still managed just 13 touches.

MORE: Yates’ Rest-of-Season RB Rankings Week 10

After clearing 15 touches in each of New England’s first four games, Stevenson hasn’t done it once since — I’m not sure that’s going to change any time soon. The Patriots routinely struggle to move the ball, something that was again a problem on Sunday with under 23 minutes of possession. That lowers Stevenson’s floor to a borderline unacceptable level.

The monster run gave Stevenson a good fantasy result in Week 9, but that doesn’t mean he was a good-process play. The low touch count is to be expected at this point, and considering that he didn’t have a rush longer than 15 yards this season prior to the outlier 64-yard score, banking on a singular big play is beyond dangerous.

I’m more than happy to move on from Stevenson now — you’re not going to have a better chance to do so.

Ezekiel Elliott: I’m skeptical about Stevenson, and that makes the man working behind him unrosterable. Elliott has one game this season with more than 12 touches, and at 3.8 yards per carry, what motivation do the Patriots have to adjust his role?

Not one of Elliott’s 89 touches this season has gained more than 17 yards. I’m not even willing to entertain the idea of him being considered a viable handcuff — the lead role in this backfield doesn’t hold consistent value because nothing tethered to this offense holds value.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman Jr.: With 8+ catches or a touchdown in four straight games (top-24 receiver in all of those games), Pittman’s floor is elevated. That’s enough to make him a mandatory start.

He is pacing for 110 catches this season, but by averaging just 10.2 yards per catch and only three scores (all at home – and only two true home games prior to New Year’s Eve), the ceiling leaves something to be desired.

Pittman resides on the fringe of WR1 status in my half-PPR rankings, and that’s not going to change. For the rest of the season, I prefer him to a player like Deebo Samuel, as I’m willing to take the hit on ceiling potential for the week-over-week safety.

Josh Downs: Downs was battling a knee injury heading into Week 9 and was forced to exit early last week. Does the team rush him back in Germany for Week 10? Or do they take the cautious approach with their third-round pick, understanding that the bye awaits them in Week 11?

Downs was a top-35 receiver in four straight games prior to last week. That WR3/Flex range is exactly where I’d have him ranked this week if he clears all health hurdles.

Fortunately, we will have this information prior to the bulk of the games kicking off. If he is ruled out, check out the PFN Fantasy YouTube Channel at noon for our pre-lock, post-actives live stream!

Demario Douglas: That’s three straight games with at least six targets for Douglas, which is rosterable but not enough to enter the fantasy starter conversation.

He doesn’t have a 20-yard catch in any of those three games, and with Mac Jones averaging under 9.5 yards per completion (not to mention seven TD passes in his past eight games), there is simply no reason to invest in this passing game.

Tight Ends

The tight end position requires very little to be relevant in any given week, and yet, neither of these teams has an option that I am even entertaining.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -6.5
Total: 48
Texans implied points: 21
Bengals implied points: 27.5

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: The “Pride of Ohio State” put on an absolute show last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, breaking Marc Bulger’s single-game record for passing yards by a rookie with 470.

The final numbers from Week 9 were historic, but it was the method that he produced at such a high level that impressed me most. Oftentimes, in massive QB games, we see an alpha receiver take over and make the final quarterback look better than he might have deserved.

That was not the case on Sunday. Stroud’s five touchdown passes went to four different players, and his WR1 was not one of the three Texans to clear 100 receiving yards. Special.

The Bengals own the highest opponent aDOT in the league, and given how accurate Stroud was down the field last week, he’s poised to finish inside the top 10 at the position for a second consecutive week. He didn’t have a single such week prior.
It’s never too early to look ahead — the Texans get the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 and Week 17. We could be looking at something special.

Joe Burrow: That’s four straight games with multiple passing scores (and a completion percentage north of 68%) for Burrow as the Bengals’ offense is rounding into form. He’s still not at the peak of his powers, but he’s trending toward the QB5 that he was drafted as this summer.

The Texans are a bottom-10 defense at getting off the field on third down and allow opponents to complete 70.6% of their passes (second-highest). In short, they aren’t the type of unit to slow down Burrow’s positive momentum, and if Stroud is pushing him to keep up, this could be a vintage performance.

Buckle up — you’re in the process of being rewarded for your patience.

Running Backs

Dameon Pierce: An ankle injury cost Pierce his first game of the season, and in his place, Devin Singletary did his best Pierce impersonation: 15 touches for 26 yards.

This run game is a mess and is not one I’m tempted to touch this weekend, even against the second-worst per-carry run defense in all the land.

Not only has Pierce (ruled OUT on Friday) been objectively bad, but it’s Singletary that is used more in the passing game, and this team is pretty clearly focused on developing Stroud above all things. Pair that with a brutal end-of-season schedule and, no matter what Pierce does on Sunday, he won’t be a starter in my ranks as your fantasy league is being decided.

Week 14 at Jets
Week 15 at Titans
Week 16 vs. Browns
Week 17 vs. Titans

Devin Singletary: As mentioned, Singletary was largely ineffective in an extended role (75% snap share) last week, and that shouldn’t be a surprise. This team can’t run the ball and has very little in doing so, making this a black hole for fantasy production.

Mike Boone was on the field and ran a route on 84.2% of his snaps against the Buccaneers. That’s not to say that Boone will matter at all, he won’t, but it’s yet another piece of the pie that isn’t going to the lead back in this offense. Singletary checks in as my RB31 with the news that Pierce is out — I still think you can do better!

Joe Mixon: With a touchdown in consecutive games and over 20 receiving yards in three straight, Mixon is producing viable fantasy numbers despite a lack of explosion. Is he 2022 Najee Harris but on a better offense?

Mixon (150 touches this season) has failed to average more than 3.2 yards per carry in three of his past four and has just two touches of more than 20. The big play is not a part of his profile, but with this offense trending in a very positive direction as a whole, Mixon deserves to be started with confidence due to his all-inclusive role.

His ypc currently sits at 3.9, identical to what it was last season. I’m not projecting massive gains in that department, which limits his ability to consistently burst into the top 10. However, Mixon’s at no risk of falling out of fantasy lineups.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins: Hang in there. If you were out and about last Sunday, you may have caught the Stroud updates.

“Record-setting,” “his fifth touchdown pass of the day won the game,” “chunk plays for days in Houston.”

With the alpha receiver in this offense, if you saw those headlines without watching the game, you likely thought you had fantasy points to burn.

Not so much. Collins was fine (54 yards and a touchdown), but given the Stroud stat line, I would have expected at least twice as many fantasy points than the 12.9 he earned.

It’s OK. Despite not being one of the three Texans to hit 100 receiving yards last week, Collins should continue to be viewed as the top option in this developing passing game.

The top target in every offense facing the Bengals during Cincy’s four game win streak has either scored or seen 9+ targets, something I believe we see extended to five straight games and helps Collins finish as a top-15 receiver for the fourth time this season.

Tank Dell: Was the massive Week 9 good to see? Of course it was. But my thoughts of Dell on a weekly basis have not changed — risk/reward.

For the season, Dell has a trio of top-20 finishes and four outside of the top 45. This is who he is. I was encouraged by a red-zone carry last week. If that portion of his role becomes consistent, we can have a different conversation, but not until then.

I still think Dell will be the third option in this passing game more often than not, and that’s going to have him hovering around WR30-35 most weeks. That’s the case in this spot, though the path to upside is there, given that the Bengals own the league’s highest opponent aDOT.

Noah Brown: He was the breakout performer last week, and he was added in mass this week. Are managers chasing a ghost, or is there actually something there for the rest of the season?

MORE: Should You Add Noah Brown?

Brown posted a 74.5% route participation last week, putting him in the same range as Houston’s trio of primary pass catchers. That sort of usage is ultra-interesting in an offense that is aiming to develop their promising quarterback, but don’t forget that Robert Woods was sidelined.

Woods could return this week (the third week of a 2-3 week timetable). If he does, neither him nor are anywhere near starting lineups. Even if Woods misses another game, Brown won’t crack my top 45 this week.

Ja’Marr Chase: This Bengals offense is trending up, and that’s more encouraging than the rare Chase down week is concerning.

Chase finished the week as the WR44 after checking in at, on average, WR15 over his five games prior. He has seen at least eight targets in every game this season, and his per-opportunity upside is nothing short of elite as Burrow approaches his peak form.

Tee Higgins: Here he comes — when healthy. Higgins was WR8 last week (eight catches for 110 yards) and has caught 13 of 15 targets since the Week 7 bye. With the efficiency trending up and the raw ability proven, Higgins should be viewed now as he was in August — a strong WR2 who is a lineup lock when back on the field, but we learned Friday that will not be this week. Higgins has officially been ruled OUT for Week 10.

While Higgins’ status gives a slight target bump to Tyler Boyd, he still isn’t in the Flex conversation for me. For his career, Higgins has only scored in two of 10 games when Chase reaches 100 yards, so if you’re like me and believe this is a big Chase spot, there’s no real need for a WR2.

Boyd is a fringe top 40 receiver with more appeal in PPR formats than anything else.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Touchdowns aren’t the most predictable metric in the world. But with this offense functioning at the level that it currently is and Schultz clearly being a part of their red-zone package, his scoring equity is high enough to justify considering a top-12 play for the remainder of the season.

The former Cowboy has scored in four of his past five games, and because it’s the TE position, that means he’s finished each of those weeks as a top-six performer. Last week, Schultz scored from nine yards out on a fourth-down play and saw an end-zone target that didn’t pay off.

His usage in an offense that can only move the ball through the air is gold, which makes him an asset set to deliver during the second half of the fantasy season.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Saints -2.5
Total: 41
Saints implied points: 21.8
Vikings implied points: 19.3

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: With multiple passing scores in consecutive games and 1,175 yards through the air over the past month, Carr is moving in the right direction. But be careful in assuming this matchup is a plus one. These days, it’s closer to a poor matchup.

The Vikings have been a top-10 pass defense since the beginning of October. If you want to dismiss that due to the opponents they faced over that stretch, I understand. That said, they did hold Patrick Mahomes to under 7.0 yards per pass and forced Brock Purdy to throw more interceptions than touchdowns.

Carr ranks outside of my top 15 this week due to concerns about the matchup and overall possession count.

Joshua Dobbs: What he did last week was nothing short of special (his fourth top-10 finish of the season), and having the time to learn the names of his teammates and the language of the offense certainly can’t hurt.

That said, Dobbs draws a tough Saints defense that ranks top five in yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passer rating this season. They don’t rely on blitzing or pressure – a style of defending that worries me when it comes to Dobbs’ fantasy value because it likely limits his production outside of the pocket.

He’s currently straddling my top 15 at the position. If WR Justin Jefferson were to return to action, he’d end up on the positive side of QB15, and if not, he’ll fade back closer to QB20. If you’re in a pinch, I prefer Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell and Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson. Should Jefferson not return, I’d even prefer Carr in this game.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: After touching the ball 21+ times in each of his first five games this season, Kamara saw just 13 touches against the Bears (70 yards). The touch count is one thing, but the slim 31-27 snap share over Jamaal Williams is another.

This situation has my interest. I’m not yet adjusting anything in my rankings, but without a path to usage near the goal line, I have my concerns.

But even a Kamara skeptic has him locked into the top 20 at the position due to his versatility, which means you’re playing him.

Jamaal Williams: The snap share was good to see if you’re holding Williams, but picking up 12 yards on five touches didn’t exactly earn him extended run.

I’m rostering Williams as more of a handcuff to Kamara then as a player I expect to work into standalone value. He’s a fringe top-40 running back for me, ranking alongside the Ezekiel Elliotts and Tyjae Spears’ of the world.

Alexander Mattison: With Cam Akers (Achilles) out for the season, Mattison’s lead role isn’t in danger, but it should be noted that this was a 27-23 snap split prior to Akers suffering the injury.

The Vikings clearly want Mattison to lead their backfield, but they also don’t want him to be the only option to carry the ball. That puts Ty Chandler on the handcuff radar if you have deeper benches.

Mattison is my RB22 in this spot and should be started in most spots, even if the upside is limited.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: It hasn’t been the type of season we wanted from Olave, but is it as bad as you think?

He has four finishes as the WR21 or better this season and is on pace for 161 targets. That’s not a bad profile for someone we are dismissing as a bust.

The structure is in place for him to return more value in the second half of the NFL season than the first half.

It can’t be overlooked that the actual production (under 60 yards in three straight games and in five of his past six) has lagged well behind his usage and that this VIkings defense is playing at a high level.

I’m sticking with Olave as a top-15 play this week, trusting that the talent/target combination will reward me more often than not.

Michael Thomas: Prior to the goose egg against the Bears, Thomas ranked as WR31-49 in seven of eight games, which is the general range he deserves to be ranked. He’s never going to win you your week, but complete disasters like last week are equally unlikely.

He’s been targeted 6-9 times in eight of nine games this season, which creates a floor that is appealing for a playoff-bound fantasy team.

I’m looking to add Thomas to my roster at a discount now with an eye on the Panthers-Giants-Rams-Bucs run that New Orleans goes on in Weeks 14-17.

Rashid Shaheed: I continue to think Shaheed has more in his profile than a true gunner, but until we get proof of him having access to a role upgrade, he can’t be trusted (six finishes outside of the top 50 this season).

The Vikings blitz often, which has resulted in a well-below-average opponent aDOT. You don’t need to convince Carr to check down, and this matchup points to a lot of that. I’m not tempted by Shaheed in season long at all, and you can do better when it comes to DFS punt plays.

Justin Jefferson: He has served his time on IR and is eligible to play this weekend. But will he?

That remains to be seen (initial estimation: 4-6 weeks), but once Jefferson returns for the Vikes, he returns for you.

MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart Week 10 — Latest Values for Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, and Justin Jefferson

Dobbs funneled nearly 27% of his targets to his WR1 while in Arizona. I’d expect that usage to be something of a floor as Jefferson returns to health.

This isn’t a great matchup, but given the risk that comes as you navigate outside of the top 25 at the position, Jefferson’s raw talent is worth a roll of the dice.

Jordan Addison: That WR1 target share gets transferred onto Addison should Jefferson sit, a receiver who quietly has proven to have a reasonable floor (over 50 receiving yards in seven of nine games).

I’m much more comfortable with Addison if Jefferson remains sidelined, but he won’t be a top-30 receiver for me this week. I’d rather flex Mattison.

If you’re looking for a receiver in this range that I prefer to Addison, it would be Jahan Dotson (8+ targets in three straight).

K.J. Osborn: A helmet-to-helmet collision sidelined Osborn for the second half of Week 9 and puts his status for this weekend very much in question. Brandon Powell is seemingly the next man up with Trishton Jackson getting extended run following the injury.

In short, I don’t trust this Vikings offense sans Kirk Cousins to produce multiple viable fantasy receivers. If Jefferson is active, I’m out on Addison. If not, I’m out on whoever you want to label as the WR2 in this offense.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: Juwan Johnson played 18 more snaps than Hill last week and basically doubled his route count. However, Hill is seemingly inevitable these days.

When all was said and done last week, Hill was on the field for 29 snaps and involved in 17 of them (one pass, five targets, and a team-high 11 carries). At this point, Hill is a weekly starter without much question. His unique role lends him a floor that is above the non-elite at the position, and the usage has his ceiling at the level of the Tier 2 tight ends.

T.J. Hockenson: With at least six catches in four straight games and in seven of nine this season, Hock is giving his fantasy managers an edge on almost every other team. Jaren Hall missed him on a four-yard TD — it’s only a matter of time until the scores come (one touchdown since scoring twice in Philadelphia during the Week 2 loss).

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -3
Total: 39
Packers implied points: 18
Steelers implied points: 21

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: There is absolutely no reason to be digging this deep at the position. Love had six touchdown passes on 29 completions through Week 2 — he has six on 126 attempts since. There will be splash plays now and again, but counting on Love to put together consecutive drives is a tall order, let alone four quarters.

Kenny Pickett: He was unable to thrive in a good matchup last week against the Titans (160 yards and one TD) and is firmly off the starting radar in any standard league. He has one multi-TD game on his 2023 résumé (Week 3 at LV) and offers little upside despite having a pair of viable pass catchers.

I hate being negative. Pickett is my QB1 in this game!

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Was Week 9 the start of something or, as Derek Tate mentioned on our Trade Targets Podcast (currently available on the PFN Fantasy YouTube Channel), an excuse to cash in this chip?

The answer to that question, naturally, depends on what you can get for Jones in a deal. It’s easy to be encouraged by his 41-29 snap edge over AJ Dillon and by his 20 carries, a total he reached, in total, over his previous four games.

If you’re taking the optimistic view, as I (cautiously) am, the fact that Jones has seen 5+ targets in three straight gives his fantasy production some staying power.

Of course, it should be noted that the Packers were playing in a positive game script for the run game last week, something I don’t think we see a ton of moving forward. I have Jones as a fine RB2 against the 26th-ranked per-carry defense, thinking that last week was a proof of health.

AJ Dillon: If you’re holding Dillon, it’s in a handcuff capacity. He has scored just once in 105 touches this season and doesn’t yet have a carry gaining more than 15 yards this season.

With no more than one target in five of his past seven games, Dillon pretty clearly has no path to standalone value while Jones is active. If you’re struggling to fill in your Flex spot, I prefer secondary backs like Tyler Allgeier or Zach Charbonnet.

Najee Harris: If you had the patience to hold onto — and start — Harris last week, you’re better than me. He paid off your loyalty with 76 yards and a score, out-snapping Jaylen Warren 38-26 (15-10 edge in routes) in the process.

The strong game against the Titans on Thursday night resulted in his third top-25 finish of the season. Harris’ role in the passing game has ticked up after a slow first month, which is enough to keep him ahead of Warren in my rankings, but I still don’t view him as an RB2.

We’re still talking about a player averaging under 4.0 yards per carry on a struggling offense facing a top-12 run defense in terms of ypc.

Jaylen Warren: Did we see some birthday swag last week from Warren? One day after his 25th birthday, the explosive back lit up the TItans for 113 yards on 14 touches and looked like a well-above-average back in the process.

As mentioned, Harris also looked good, which means that Warren’s role is unlikely to be greatly impacted by his impressive Week 9. Warren has at least three receptions in seven of eight games, and that elevates his PPR fantasy floor to a level where I think he’s in the Flex conversation — even without a significant role change.

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: Green Bay’s presumed WR1 suffered a variety of injuries last week, and his status for this week is up in the air at the moment.

Since the bye, though, Watson has a total of seven catches on 15 targets for 97 yards across three games, finishing none of those weeks ranked better than WR60. Despite this being a pass-happy league, not every offense has to have a fantasy-viable receiver.

Romeo Doubs: The lack of upside for Doubs (one 20+ yard reception this season) is moderately concerning, but with Watson banged up, he’s moderately interesting. This season, Doubs has earned at least nine targets in three games and has four top-25s — that sort of production doesn’t happen by accident.

Doubs is currently my highest-ranked Green Bay WR and lands as my WR39.

Jayden Reed: The rookie has been held under 25 receiving yards in three of his past four games. He pretty clearly isn’t a target earner just yet (15 targets over the past month).

Reed has just one top-35 finish since Week 2, and it came courtesy of a touchdown on a pass that wasn’t intentionally thrown to him. Big plays and a fantasy-relevant role are his down the road, but at this point in the fantasy season, it’s important to separate that promise from a reasonable rest-of-season projection.

Diontae Johnson: A touchdown?!? Johnson caught seven balls for 90 yards and the slump-busting TD on Thursday night as he reestablishes himself as a weekly fantasy lineup lock.

Johnson has earned 33.3% of the targets over the past two games and has a 25+ yard reception in three of his past four. The Steelers have seemingly found a nice middle ground between his traditional role and the high aDOT position they put him in last year.

If you remained patient while Johnson was on IR earlier this season, you’re being rewarded in a big way right now, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon.

George Pickens: I’m very much a numbers nerd, but it’s hard to overlook Pickens’ mental state right now. During Week 9, he failed to drag his toes on what should have been a touchdown. Then after the game, he took to social media to voice his frustrations in the limitations of this offense. Not great.

Pickens did lead Steelers receivers in snap share last week (89.1%), and the talent jumps off the screen at you, so he remains on the Flex radar. He has three games north of 100 yards this season, a level of upside that those ranked around him don’t have access to. But with four games under 40 yards, the rug can be pulled out from under you in a significant way.

Pickens is clearly the WR2 in Pittsburgh for me. In the scope of the NFL, he’s a low-end Flex option in this matchup, ranking alongside other volatile receivers in Tyler Lockett, Tank Dell, and Gabe Davis.

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave: It was good to see the rookie find paydirt for the first time in his career last week against the Rams. The 51 yards he gained in that game were also a season-high.

Baby steps.

Musgrave looks the part of a pass-catching tight end who can thrive with time in this league, but that time is not right now. Not consistently at least.

Musgrave has just two games north of five targets this season. With the value of those targets in question due to Love’s limitations, I’m not considering him an option this week (my TE17).

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -1
Total: 38
Titans implied points: 18.5
Buccaneers implied points: 19.5

Quarterbacks

Will Levis: The numbers were underwhelming in Pittsburgh (22 of 39 for 262 yards, zero TDs, and one INT) compared to his NFL debut against the Falcons (19-of-29 for 238 yards and four TDs), but I thought he held his own for a QB making his second career start against an aggressive unit on a Thursday night.

He continues to flash the big arm and the potential that comes with it, but much like Jordan Love early this season, that style of playing with limited NFL experience comes with a wide range of outcomes.

This is a fine spot where he could access some of that upside, but the risk profile isn’t going anywhere. I’m not rostering him in standard-sized league — with a lot of talent on bye. However, he’s very much an option in two-QB and Superflex formats.

Baker Mayfield: Last week saw 76 points scored in the Bucs game. If you think that happens again, then go ahead and invest in Mayfield.

Good luck with that. Here are the point totals in Buccaneer games prior to the shootout that took place in Week 9: 37, 44, 36, 35, 26, 29, and 42.

One of these things is not like the other — one of these things does not belong.

Mayfield and his usually condensed target distribution is a cute DFS avenue if you’re trying to be different this weekend, but outside of that, I’m not going in that direction in anything but two-QB formats.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: In his first five games this season, The King was averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, but in his past three, his rate is up 1.6 yards, and he is rounding into the form we expected to see.

He’s also caught multiple passes in four straight games, fueling a nice floor while the scoring has yet to come in bunches like we’ve seen in the past (yet to score in consecutive games this season).

As involved as Tyjae Spears is in terms of snaps, it’s not standing in the way of Henry getting the volume that we’ve come to know and love, something that I expect to be the case for the remainder of the season. He deserves to be locked in across the board, and with extra time to recover, we should get an ultra-physical version of him this weekend.

Tyjae Spears: The rookie again out-snapped Henry (44-36) and held a significant edge in routes run (29-12), but the touch-per-snap rate just isn’t there. Spears has yet to reach a dozen touches in a game this season, a role that has him well outside of my Flex radar.

He’s worth rostering in deeper formats, but many sites come with default shallow benches, and in a league like that, I’m more likely to fill out my roster with players who own access to a higher weekly ceiling than what we’ve seen with Spears.

Rachaad White: The next person that watches White run the ball between the tackles and is impressed will be the first, but there is simply no denying his value in this game of ours.

He has at least 16 touches in seven of eight games this season, and by hauling in 33 of 34 targets this season, his floor in any format that rewards per reception is that of an RB2. His role in the passing game is moving in the right direction, as his top three receiving games this season have come in his past three games.

A pair of one-yard scores fueled his ceiling performance in Week 9. It was good to see him convert those high-leverage carries, but counting on them isn’t wise (one touchdown on 121 touches this season entering last week).

White is inching his way up my ranks on a weekly basis by continuing to reach expectations. It sounds simple, but by coming through on a consistent basis, he’s proven more valuable than RBs that most would label as superior talents.

White is a top-15 RB for me this week and is sharing a tier with explosive backs in Atlanta Falcon Bijan Robinson and Seattle Seahawk Kenneth Walker III that aren’t being used at the level we want.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: The three touchdowns in Week 8 during Levis’ debut were great to see and is proof positive of him owning a higher ceiling with Levis under center than Ryan Tannehill. However, performances like last week in Pittsburgh are just as likely to occur with a green QB (60 yards on 11 targets).

MORE: Fantasy Football WR Week 10 Trade Targets

This is a better matchup for the pass game than the run game, so I understand why you’d be comfortable in flexing Nuk this week, but the wide range of outcomes is not something I’m looking to invest in unless you’re a big underdog and can absorb significant risk.

Treylon Burks: Burks was placed in concussion protocol following a scary injury last week, and while he seems to have avoided anything serious, I’m not counting on him playing this week. Kyle Philips has punt-play potential in DFS if this is the case, but “WR2” in Tennessee is not a role I believe is worth a roster spot in standard-sized season-long leagues.

Mike Evans: He was an inch away from a touchdown last week, and if he finishes that 53-yard reception with a score, his fantasy stock isn’t a question. That said, Evans didn’t score and has now seen his target count decline in three straight games.

His average finish this season is outside of the top 30 WRs when he doesn’t find the end zone, giving him a lower floor than most in the “lineup lock” tier of receiver. While that’s less than ideal, I’m not giving a second thought to Evans’ status this week in a very positive matchup where Mayfield should be able to support multiple receivers.

Chris Godwin: We have loved Godwin’s floor in years past, but that’s simply not the case these days. With just one touchdown this season (40 catches on 62 targets) and a declining yardage total over his past five games (114-77-66-54-16), the floor/ceiling profile isn’t working in his favor these days.

The target count remains passable (132 pace), which keeps him on the Flex radar for leagues that reward per reception. But you have to be willing to consider the thought moving forward that Godwin is no longer a lock in your starting lineup.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: The 2022 fourth-round pick lit up your waiver wire with a six-catch, 70-yard, and two-touchdown performance opposite the Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud explosion — flash in the pan or added depth to the TE pool?

He’s seen at least six targets in three straight games, and that’s encouraging, but be careful. Not only is his best-case scenario the fourth option in this passing game (behind Evans, Godwin, and White), but we are talking about a player who didn’t clear 42 catches in any of his collegiate seasons or his rookie year in the NFL.

He’s on the field plenty (over 95% snap share in seven of eight games this season), so if that’s your threshold at the position, by all means, invest. He ran a route on 90.9% of Mayfield dropbacks last week, a rate that ranks up there with anyone.

I’m skeptical of his role and skill set, landing him outside of my top 15 at the position.

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: 49ers -3
Total: 46.5
49ers implied points: 24.8
Jaguars implied points: 21.8

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: The 49ers were the most consistent offense in the NFL from Purdy’s debut to the middle of October, providing a stable fantasy floor. Since then, they’ve been a different type of consistent. The type of consistent you don’t want to be.

In Weeks 6-8, San Francisco scored exactly 17 points in every game and went 0-3. The reliable offense that we’d come to know and love vanished before our eyes. The “safe” fantasy value of Purdy was gone. He failed to throw for multiple scores in each of those losses and looked even worse than the raw numbers suggest.

Can he bounce back?

The Jags boast what looks like an average pass defense based on yards per attempt and TD rate, but are those numbers a bit deceptive? They’ve played just two above-average passers this season — one came way back in Week 2 and the other in London, where they had a significant travel advantage. Consider me skeptical.

Kyle Shanahan (card-holding member of the elite first name, last initial club) has had an extra week to prepare for this game and will have Deebo Samuel back in the mix. For those reasons, I’m in. He was a top-13 fantasy QB in four of his first five games this season, and I think that’s his floor. With three high-end quarterbacks on bye this week, Purdy has a path to his highest finish of the season and can be trusted in all formats, including DFS.

Trevor Lawrence: This matchup certainly doesn’t breed optimism, and Lawrence’s struggles through nine weeks are no secret:

Best finish: QB8 (Week 1 at IND)
Finishes as a top-15 QB: 2 (half the count of Jordan Love)

That said, there are some signs of hope. Lawrence has completed 75% of his passes or run for over 30 yards in four of his past five games. He also posted his best passer rating last season in the game following the bye. And let’s not forget the fact that 5.3% of his throws have been dropped this season.

MORE: Week 10 QB Waiver Wire Targets — Top Players To Add Include Joshua Dobbs and Will Levis

It’s a tough week at the QB position, and I have Lawrence ranked as a top-12 play, ahead of the popular streaming options. I’m playing him this week and hoping to see an improved version of Lawrence following the off week.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: With five top-five finishes, McCaffrey has proven to be a cheat code in fantasy. He got a chance to catch his breath with the bye week and should be considered nothing short of the top option in our game moving forward.

Averages with SF (regular season): 113.4 total yards with 23 TDs in 19 games

Travis Etienne Jr.: Entering the bye, Etienne rattled off four straight top-five finishes, thanks in part to catching at least three passes in six straight games. Even with the passing game yet to give this offense the type of balance that is ideal for a running back, Etienne has been special in Year 2 and has returned tremendous profit on your investment this summer.

Enjoy the ride, you’re never getting Etienne at the cost that you did this year again.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel: A shoulder injury has kept Samuel out of consecutive games and limited him in parts of others, so it’s easy to forget that he was a top-15 receiver in two of three games this season prior to getting banged up.

Of course, we’ve seen enough Kyle Shanahan offenses to know that no one player is going to be featured on a consistent basis. We’ve seen both TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk flash strong target-earning skills in Samuel’s absence, confirming that this is going to be an irritating situation when everyone is active.

That said, this does look like a good spot for Samuel to return to fantasy lineups. The Jaguars miss the sixth-most tackles per game and hurry the opposing QB at the third-highest rate, which are defensive tendencies that would point to the short pass game as a focal point.

Brandon Aiyuk: He’s been fine of late, but fine isn’t fine when we expected more, given the limitations of Samuel. Aiyuk hasn’t finished as a top-30 receiver in three of his past four games and has been held out of the end zone ever since scoring twice against the Steelers way back in Week 1.

That said, the metrics are there. Aiyuk is a top-tier receiver in route win rate, expected points added, yards per route, and most other nerdy metrics that you probably don’t find as intoxicating as I do. Your loss.

In any event, I’m trusting the process. Listen, he’s a 49ers receiver, and that comes with inherent risk, but it also comes with a lucrative ceiling that justifies chasing it. Could the team look his way often coming off the bye? I would, and I’m ranking it as if they will — he’s a locked-in WR2 for me in this spot.

Christian Kirk: Recency bias can cause poor decision-making, and I’d caution against using it to justify benching Kirk. Jacksonville had their bye last week, and Kirk underwhelmed the game prior (46 yards at Pittsburgh), meaning their slot receiver hasn’t provided positive returns to your fantasy team since mid-October.

Don’t be reactionary. He posted six straight top-25 performances prior to that dud in Week 8 and has looked the part of the top receiver in this offense. This isn’t a great matchup, though it is worth noting that San Francisco has allowed a 100-yard receiver in three straight games.

There’s some risk involved in any player who relies heavily on efficiency (71.7% catch rate) instead of elite volume, but we have an extended sample size of Lawrence trusting his slot receiver in a way that lands him inside of my top 25 at the position this week.

Calvin Ridley: The Jaguars came into this season featuring Ridley in a big way (WR6 in Week 1). Is it possible that with a week off, they implement a similar strategy this weekend?

They could, and with at least eight targets in three of his past four games, there are volume trends to buy into. That said, we can’t overlook the fact that he has just one top-25 finish since that strong season opener, a stretch that includes four finishes outside of the top 50 at the position.

I remain hopeful that Ridley can re-emerge as a WR2 as we approach the fantasy playoffs, but for now, he’s to be considered a Flex option with a low floor. The single-play upside is there and is of interest in a tough bye-week landscape, but you need to be aware that there is plenty of risk in this profile.

Zay Jones: A knee injury has limited Jones to appearing in just three games (last appearance: Week 5 vs. BUF) up to this point, but he does have a pair of top-30 performances and a reasonable role in this offense.

The hope is that he could return following the Jacksonville bye, and while we need proof of health before considering him in lineups, you should make sure he is rostered. This Jaguars offense has access to upside that not many do. Thus, having a piece of the action as we approach the fantasy postseason is a fine gamble to take.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: I can’t stand the people who complain about the Kittle experience. It’s all over the place, yes, but it’s exactly what you signed up for. It’s like weather on the East Coast or the “special” at your local diner.

It’s a wide range of outcomes that could make your day or ruin your week.

Kittle has four top-10 finishes this season, alongside his four finishes outside of the top 25. Samuel returning to action doesn’t help, but it doesn’t kill his ceiling. Samuel just makes it slightly tougher to tap into.

You married Kittle on draft day. You promised to start him in sickness and health. To love and to cherish his variance til the death of the fantasy season do us part.

I do … rank Kittle in the third tier at the position and thus am committing to him long-term.

Evan Engram: It’s borderline impossible for any TE to enter the “Big Three” conversation, but if a TE was going to break into that tier, Engram gets my vote. He has seen at least seven targets in seven straight games, a level of usage that holds significant value at this position.

He has parlayed that involvement into seven top-14 finishes. That may not sound like a major accomplishment, but at the most high-variance position in fantasy football (and without the help of a touchdown), it’s quite the accomplishment. You’re playing Engram this week and enjoying the strong profit he returns weekly based on his ADP.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -6
Total: 37.5
Browns implied points: 15.8
Ravens implied points: 21.8

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson: It’s rarely been a work of art, but Watson has returned top-10 production at the position in three of his four full games this season.

I will admit that there is some smoke-and-mirrors in Watson’s profile (the deflected pass that found Amari Cooper for a score last week being the most recent example), and a matchup against one of the elite defenses in the league is a spot where he could get exposed.

LT Jedrick Wills Jr. suffered a knee injury last week, and while he avoided the worst-case scenario, the team did elect to put him on injured reserve. That injury could loom large against the defense with the third-highest sack rate this season, especially if this is a low-possession game (both teams rank top four in average time of possession).

I find myself siding with QBs that own a high floor (Washington QB Sam Howell) or those in a better matchup (Denver QB Russell Wilson) this week if forced to go down in the rankings for a starting signal-caller.

Lamar Jackson: It’s a tough matchup, and Jackson hasn’t cleared 30 pass attempts in four straight games (only 19 attempts back in Week 4 when these teams met for the first time), so I understand why you’d ask questions about his stock this week. However, there simply aren’t enough options to pivot.

To be honest, that’s a good thing. The scheduling gods are saving you from yourself.

As good as the Browns’ defense is, Jackson has the potential to be better. With at least 10 carries or a rushing score in six different games this season, Jackson’s path to production is different, but it’s usually there when the game is competitive.

Are my expectations a touch lower than normal for the MVP candidate? They are, but he’s easily a must-start in all formats — I don’t think we’ve seen his best from a fantasy perspective this season.

Running Backs

Jerome Ford: He worked well ahead of Kareem Hunt (47-21 snap edge) last week with Pierre Strong Jr. (five snaps) fading into the background.

Ford’s role was strong (25 touches in the convincing win over the Cardinals), but 2.2 yards per carry? He saved the day for fantasy managers with five catches, but you’d be hard-pressed to come away from Week 9 impressed with his ability.

Remove two outlier runs this season and Ford has picked up just 287 yards on 105 carries (2.7 ypc). That’s an extended run of mediocrity that I’m not comfortable betting on. I have him ranked the highest of the backs in Cleveland, but that doesn’t land him in my comfort Flex zone.

We are looking at a 15-touch day without much scoring equity.

Kareem Hunt: A rushing TD in four straight games has made Hunt viable of late, but his fantasy value is on thin ice. Thin ice on a 75-degree day with 0% cloud cover.

The Ravens have held opponents out of the end zone on a league-high 66.7% of red-zone drives, a strength that gives me no confidence that Hunt can continue paying the fantasy bills by way of touchdowns.

Hunt’s versatility used to be a calling card, but with one target in each of his past three games, that’s not a part of his role these days. He’s still in search of his first 20-yard touch this season, and this matchup isn’t a great spot for him to find it.

Outside of limited touches, scoring regression, and a lack of versatility, Hunt is a fine option. The problem is that those are essentially the only ways to produce fantasy points. Hunt is nowhere near starting lineups or DFS play pools for me this weekend.

Gus Edwards: Last week’s blowout win over the Seahawks saw Edwards score on two of his five carries and provide fantasy managers with all they needed despite very limited opportunities.

Edwards averaged over 16 carries per game in his three games prior to Week 9, so I’m tempted to think he still has a role that comes with strong volume to go along with his goal-line role.

Justice Hill (13 carries) isn’t going away, and Keaton Mitchell (nine carries for 138 yards and a touchdown) earned his way onto the field, lowering the floor on a two-down back like Edwards (seven targets this season).

Edwards picked up just 51 yards on 17 touches in Week 4 against these Browns. I’m projecting a little more in ways of efficiency, but that general stat line makes sense for this week with his stock hinging on a score.

Edwards is a low-end RB2 for me in this divisional showdown.

Justice Hill: Hill picked up serious usage last week thanks to the blowout nature of the game, something that I don’t see being repeated in what projects to be a competitive game throughout.

Given Edwards’ limitations, Hill’s path to mattering is pretty clearly through the pass game. The problem there? He hasn’t been involved lately (under five receiving yards in three of four games during Baltimore’s win streak).

Hill deserves to be rostered thanks to the potency of this offense, but he’s not much different than Samaje Perine or Roschon Johnson at this point — I don’t view him as a fantasy starter anytime soon.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: Fantasy’s fourth-best receiver last week was the beneficiary of a lucky bounce on his touchdown, but the usage is consistent enough to keep Cooper inside of my top 30 wide receivers despite the ups and downs under center.

Since the bye, Cooper has been a top-30 receiver in three of four games, paying off his volume that has been consistent for the majority of the season (five catches or eight targets in six of his past seven games).

The issue? The lone exception in that last trend was the Week 4 loss to these Ravens (16 yards on six targets).

There’s risk involved in counting on Cooper this week, especially if Cleveland can play with a lead. I, however, think the Ravens create a need for the Browns to be aggressive on the offensive end, which should result in enough opportunities for Cooper to be a fine Flex play.

Cedric Tillman is the DFS punt play if you’re going that way. He posted a 73.5% route participation in the first game since the Donovan Peoples-Jones trade, and with Marquise Goodwin suffering a third-quarter concussion, his path to a handful of targets is reasonably clear.

Zay Flowers: Flowers’ talent shines through on occasion, but not nearly enough for fantasy managers to consider him a weekly option. The rookie has gained just 30 yards over the past two weeks, and after clearing 60 yards in each of his first two games, he’s only done it twice since.

Baltimore’s offense is elite, but they do it in a way that doesn’t require any receiver to produce big numbers. With only one touchdown on his résumé and five finishes outside of the top 40 at the position, Flowers is a risk/reward Flex that ranks alongside the George Pickens’ and Gabe Davis’ of the world.

You could do worse than gamble on a talent like this in an explosive offense, but the production through two months doesn’t support being overly confident in his production.

Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman: Both Beckham and Bateman saw season-highs in targets last week — it doesn’t matter.

Flowers, as the clear WR1 in this offense, is having his issues in providing weekly value, so there’s no way I’m counting on a secondary receiver.

If Jackson needed a third option in the pass game behind Mark Andrews and Flowers, we would have seen it by now. That’s not to say there won’t be occasional chances for both Beckham and Bateman, but the spotty usage is not what I want deciding the fate of my fantasy team.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: He’s found the end zone in consecutive games. The scores are nice (though last week’s was more the result of a defensive miscommunication than anything else), but the 23 targets over his past three games is what has my interest.

Watson lacks consistency through the air, but Njoku seems to have earned the secondary role behind Cooper, and that’s enough for him to be a top-12 TE for me, even in a tough matchup.

Mark Andrews: The veteran tight end has scored or seen 10 targets in five of his past six games, giving him a role that is second to no one that is not dating Taylor Swift.

Andrews has sacrificed some big-play potential for an improved catch rate (74.5%), which has worked out well for PPR fantasy managers. Andrews is my top-ranked TE this week and has a role that blends elite upside with a strong floor.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Falcons -1
Total: 42
Falcons implied points: 21.5
Cardinals implied points: 20.5

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: He completed his first four passes last week against the Vikings and they all went to different players, but that was about the extent of his success. He finished with 268 passing yards but completed just half of his passes after that initial spurt of efficiency and saw 43.5% of his points for the day come on a pass behind the line of scrimmage.

Heinicke is a fine option for the Falcons, but I’m betting the under on a repeat of his 14.7 fantasy points, even in a better matchup. He’s in play for Superflex managers who would otherwise be stuck with a WR3-4 type — that’s about it.

Kyler Murray: When this game kicks off, it will have been 334 days since Murray threw a pass in a game. While I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to take the patient route, that isn’t a luxury that Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, or Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts managers have.

On top of the weekly QBs who are on bye, we’ve got an underwhelming Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence facing a rested (and angry) 49ers defense and a sporadic Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson in Baltimore. The fact of the matter is that the QB position really isn’t as deep as we thought it would be, and that makes the upside of Murray’s skill set worth a look.

Over his final seven games in Arizona, QB Joshua Dobbs’ average finish was QB13. That’s the range in which Murray deserves to be ranked this week, and I have him a shade higher against an Atlanta Falcons defense that pressures the quarterback with regularity.

Murray’s path to fantasy success isn’t exclusively through the air, and a matchup like this that could have him on the move gives him a reasonable floor/ceiling combination, as long as his health is in order.

Are you willing to take that leap of faith? I’m rolling the dice.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson: “Sometimes, his impact away from the ball can open things up.”

Awesome. Arthur Smith is trying to play 3D chess, and those who drafted Robinson in the first round this summer are forced to suffer through this nonsense. I maintain that the fantasy process on Robinson this offseason was sound, but not all good decisions are paid off with good results.

Robinson hasn’t had 15 carries in a game since against Green Bay in Week 2, and the prospect who was being compared to Saquon Barkley (91 catches as a rookie) has looked more like the retired version of Charles Barkley in the passing game lately, with more targets (nine) than receiving yards (eight).

I wish I could paint an optimistic picture moving forward. It’s tough. Robinson did out-snap Tyler Allgeier 42-24 last week (24-10 edge in routes) and faces a below-average defense in terms of both red zone and ypc. So there’s that.

Atlanta has played five straight one-possession games. If Robinson isn’t going to be heavily featured in those scripts, when will he?

The snap share and raw talent in a run-oriented offense keep him as an RB2 for me this week, but Robinson’s floor is far lower than I would have ever guessed this summer. There’s no denying the risk that is involved with him.

Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier found the end zone for the first time since Week 1 last week against the Vikings but was again underwhelming with his work. For the eighth consecutive game, Allgeier failed to have a carry gain 15 yards, and yet, he’s just four touches behind Robinson for the season (yes, we had headache-gate play into that, but still). What a world.

Allgeier got his hands on the ball 14 times last week, the exact usage we’ve been conditioned to expect. Why would it change now?

His lack of explosive potential leaves him outside of my top 30 at the position, but Allgeier’s consistent work makes him at least worth a look for managers seeking a Flex option with a reasonable floor.

James Conner: Prior to a knee injury that landed him on IR, Conner had a pair of RB1 weeks, and in his four healthy games, his average weekly finish was RB20. A low-end RB2, which is exactly where I have him penciled in this week in his return to action.

I have a hard time thinking the Cardinals would activate the veteran without some sort of confidence in his ability to hold up. That has me projecting him for 14-17 touches against a Falcons defense that has overachieved through nine weeks.

MORE: James Conner Injury Update

Emari Demercado and Keaontay Ingram have totaled 82 carries and 267 yards (3.3 ypc), giving this team little reason to stick with them. Combine that with the upside that Murray could add to this offense under center, and I’m comfortable in moving Conner from my IR slot to my starting lineup this week.

Tony Jones Jr. led this backfield in snaps last week, but there’s no need to handcuff Conner. The Cards have yet to go on their bye and still have games against the Steelers, 49ers, and Eagles this fantasy season — it’s Conner or bust in this backfield.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: The super sophomore sat out the loss to the Vikings with a groin injury. This offense isn’t exactly tailored to fantasy production through the air, but it’s worth noting that Taylor Heinicke’s aDOT last week — even without his WR1 active — was 32.4% higher than that of Desmond Ridder this season.

I’m cautiously optimistic that the change under center positively impacts London’s value, though, without a complete offensive overhaul, he’s still going to carry plenty of risk. Assuming health, I have London just inside of my top 30 at the position against the fourth-worst pass defense in terms of yards per pass.

Marquise Brown: Any buy-low window on Hollywood could close this weekend if Kyler Murray is in fact under center as we expect. Over the past two weeks, Brown has proven plenty capable of earning targets (17), but those targets have been all sorts of empty (67 yards).

He did post three straight top-20 finishes in Weeks 3-5, so we know the potential for him to win routes is there, but with an average finish of WR46 since that run, the QB play has submarined his value.

I currently have Brown as WR36. I’m hedging a bit. Weekly rankings require you to take into account all possible outcomes, so I have to figure in some risk when it comes to Murray. If all goes well this week from a health perspective, Brown will move inside of my top 30 next week with a low-end WR2 ranking certainly possible.

Ronald Moore: He was handed the ball on Arizona’s first rush attempt last week and has multiple carries in five straight games. There’s a world in which Moore satisfies a unique role when this offense is at full strength, but that’s something I’m willing to be a week late than a week early on.

He’s yet to hit 35 receiving yards in a game this season, and if Michael Wilson (shoulder) returns to the field, that’s unlikely to change. I want to see how Moore is used with Murray under center, but I doubt it’ll be meaningful for fantasy purposes.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: He ran five more routes than Jonnu Smith last week, but it was the veteran who took a screen pass 60 yards to the house.

While the 39-38 snap split isn’t ideal, Pitts did catch four of his five targets from Heinicke for 56 yards, his second-best showing in yardage this season. If Heinicke does continue to push the ball downfield more than Ridder did, that puts Pitts in a decent spot to move to the front of the TE blob tier.

I currently have Pitts ranked as TE11, a ranking that is building in some growth in Heinicke’s second start.

Trey McBride: The second-year TE was the first Cardinals player to record a catch last week, a great sign off of his 10-catch effort against the Ravens in Week 8 that was fueled by garbage time.

After that early reception, McBride caught a case of tight end-itis — two receptions for 10 yards over the next 59 minutes and 35 seconds of action.

He’s a blobber. I have my hopes that Murray under center can be the tide that lifts all boats in this offense. Maybe that gets McBride to a top-12 ranking after this week, but I’m taking a cautious approach in this spot. He’s my TE14.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Lions -2.5
Total: 48.5
Lions implied points: 25.5
Chargers implied points: 23

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Those who have been riding Goff this season have had their moments (three top-six finishes), but the downs have put them well behind the eight-ball (four finishes as QB18 or worse). Which version do we see on Sunday with the Lions coming out of their bye?

I lean toward the former. Goff’s three big games have all come against defenses that rank below average in QB hurry rate — a box the “Bolts” check. In Detroit’s three games prior to the bye, we saw them put their faith in Goff (44.7 attempts per game, over 270 passing yards in all three of those games), something that figures to again be the case in this spot.

That’s not that Goff is a risk-free proposition (he’s not), but with a significant rest advantage and a good matchup, he’s easily a QB1 for me this week that I’m willing to trust.

Justin Herbert: The Chargers rarely play in one-sided games (in either direction), so I’m not reading too much into Herbert’s underwhelming Week 9 (QB25). The convincing win over the Jets didn’t require much of Herbert, and Kellen Moore elected not to force the issue. That’s not going to be the case this weekend with a rested Lions team coming to town.

You can feel good about trotting Herbert out in your starting lineup. He has five top-eight finishes at the position this season and is on a career-best pace in terms of touchdown-to-interception rate. I’d say this shift in the offensive system is working.

Herbert’s outlook looks good, but we can’t overlook the concerns when it comes to his pass catchers. Joshua Palmer is out for at least another three games, Gerald Everett missed time recently, and Quentin Johnston has yet to prove himself at the professional level.

Keep an eye on the non-Keenan Allen pass catchers in this game — if they step up, Herbert is a Tier 2 QB (with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow) moving forward that you can count on. If his supporting cast struggles to help elevate him, he falls outside of that tier and has a scary range of outcomes in the short term.

Running Backs

David Montgomery: The veteran back has missed consecutive games (ribs), but the Lions never entertained the idea of putting Montgomery on IR, which would point to a return this week.

Montgomery has returned fantasy-starter value in all four of his healthy games this season, and that includes a pair of top-five finishes. Does Jahmyr Gibbs’ recent success eat into his role a bit? Probably. But does it matter?

Even if Gibbs’ development results in a 20% decline in usage for Montgomery, he’d project for 18.6 touches. That’s more than enough to return value.

At this moment, I have Montgomery as a solid RB2 with upward trajectory. Assuming the positive reports continue to roll in, I’ll elevate him over both Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III. I’m willing to trust this Lions offense in this spot, and that means sliding their starting RB right into my lineup in his return to action.

Jahmyr Gibbs: All the rookie has done over his past two games is rack up 315 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 51 touches. No big deal. Just an elite prospect making the most of the opportunity in which he was given!

MORE: Fantasy Football Updated RB Dynasty Rankings Week 10

Gibbs was held to under 10 carries in all three games in which he played alongside a healthy Montgomery in September. I’d be shocked if that continued through this week, though I will continue to project Montgomery for roughly a 60% share of the RB touches.

I have Gibbs ranked as a high-end Flex option this week. He checks in just behind the backs with a solid touch floor (ex. Chub Hubbard) and ahead of those who essentially require a touchdown to be worthy of a roster spot (ex. Brian Robinson).

Austin Ekeler: I don’t want to say Ekeler’s performance on Monday night against the Jets was underwhelming, but his fantasy production was about as low as it could possibly be for a game in which he ran for a pair of scores and saw seven targets.

Ekeler is the second-best running back in fantasy. Plain and simple. He’s matchup-proof and the focal point of a strong offense. I’m not at all worried about his three drops last week. His role is as fantasy-friendly as anyone this side of Christian McCaffrey.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: The Sun God lacks the highlight-reel plays that the other elite receivers seem to produce on a consistent basis, but there’s no denying that his week-to-week usage ranks him among the most valuable assets in all of fantasy. This season:

Six top-20 finishes
Five 100-yard performances
Three games with 12+ targets

St. Brown has proven to be one of the best buys at drafts this summer, and I don’t expect the third-worst per-pass defense to slow him down even a little.

Jameson Williams: The acquisition of WR Donovan Peoples-Jones told me that the Lions aren’t willing to wait on Williams — at least not short term, while they have a real chance to make a playoff run.

Williams (seven catches on 24 career targets) has yet to prove he’s capable of being a consistent target-earner, and while the big play is very much in his profile, Peoples-Jones is plenty capable in that regard. He’s averaging 15.7 yards per catch across his career.

Dynasty managers can (and should) wait on Williams, but those in the redraft streets don’t have the luxury of waiting on development and can feel fine about moving on from a player with one top-90 finish this season.

Keenan Allen: The 10,000-yard man is my second favorite receiver in this game. That’s about the only negative I can say about the veteran.

He was able to catch eight of nine targets in a tough matchup against the Jets last week, an impressive accomplishment when you consider that New York didn’t really have to respect any other pass catcher in this offense.

MORE: Keenan Allen Fantasy Value

If we are nitpicking, Allen hasn’t scored in three straight games after scoring five times in a four-game stretch. However, his volume allows him to return usable fantasy production in weeks in which he doesn’t score. St. Brown is the better fantasy option, but in terms of points per dollar spent at your draft, Allen holds the edge in value.

Quentin Johnston: By no means am I throwing in the towel on the No. 21 overall pick long term, but if Johnston was ever going to prove himself as an asset in redraft leagues, it was last week.

How did he respond to the challenge? He earned three targets on a team-high 35 routes.

Development isn’t linear. Puka Nacua was able to produce the second he stepped onto an NFL field, but that’s more the exception than the rule.

I’m holding my Johnston stock in dynasty formats, but in redraft, you can move on if you’re in need of immediate help. I’d hold him in deeper formats simply because of my faith in this offense — not due to anything he has shown on the field up to this point.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: The rookie is pacing for the best fantasy introduction to the league by a TE in recent memory, so why would we expect it to slow? His impressive stat line (eight games: 43 catches for 434 yards and four scores) is not the result of a singular performance. He’s been a top-10 performer at the position in five of his past seven games.

He’s reached 65 yards just once this season, but with the volume and touchdown equity, there’s no way to dismiss what LaPorta has done in the first half of Year 1. You can feel great about penciling him in this week and every week moving forward — you’re rostering a true difference-maker.

Gerald Everett and Donald Parham: The snaps, routes, and targets were essentially split down the middle for these two, and I’m not overly interested in dealing with a TE committee if I can avoid it (see: Falcons, Atlanta).

I continue to rank Everett slightly over Parham due to his route versatility, but neither is a top-15 option for me this week, and that’s going to be the case more often than not moving forward.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -16
Total: 38.5
Giants implied points: 11.3
Cowboys implied points: 27.3

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: He wasn’t needed in the Week 1 dismantling of the Giants (13/24 for 143 yards) and may not be this week either, given the spread, but no one can deny the form Prescott enters this matchup with. Last three games, he has tallied 950 pass yards, 8 pass TDs, 73 rush yards, and a rushing TD.

In a tough week at the position, Prescott is a must-start. I understand the game flow concerns, and they are valid, but would you prefer a fringe QB in a tough matchup over him based on that game being competitive for a longer period of time?

If this game isn’t close, Dallas has put points on the board, and if that is the case, odds are good that Prescott had a hand in things.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Dallas held Barkley in check during the Week 1 blowout (13 touches for 63 yards), and I’d expect the sledding to be similarly difficult this weekend.

That said, the floor is still that of a fantasy starter for Barkley, thanks to his absurd role (27.5 touches per game in the month since he returned to action). With volume like that for a talent like Barkley, the odds of him breaking one significant run (25+ yard run in three of those four games) and/or scoring are in your favor.

You can downgrade him further than I have if you like (RB8), but he’s not slipping outside of your starting tier.

Tony Pollard: Could this be the matchup it takes to right the Pollard ship? He scored twice in the Week 1 meeting (16 touches for 82 yards), and since then, he and the end zone have been on a break — not a Ross and Rachel type of break where it’s an off-and-on thing, a full break. A borderline divorce.

Pollard and the end zone have not crossed paths in two months and aren’t on speaking terms.

That has a real chance of changing this weekend. The Giants rank 20th in red-zone defense and 29th in yards per carry. Prescott is playing at a high level (three straight games with a Passer Rating north of 105), and that should open up plenty of rushing lanes.

If not now, when? Pollard (3+ catches in six of his past seven) is my RB7.

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson: He pulled in his first touchdown of the season last week and has at least four catches in five of seven games this season. That’s the good. The bad? He ranked fifth on the Giants in routes run.

Betting on this Giants passing game is a risk I’m not willing to take, but if I was going to go down that road, it would be Robinson’s low-aDOT, higher-floor role.

Darius Slayton: New York’s primary deep threat led the team in targets (seven), catches (four), and receiving yards (59) last week, seemingly optimistic trends. But with Daniel Jones out for the year, this is Tommy DeVito’s show, and that makes the deep passing game even more risky than it was with the inconsistent Jones.

You can go this route if and only if you are in a YOLO spot – and even then, you can likely do better. Worth tracking is Parris Campbell, who ran a route 85.7% of his snaps. There is no actionable right now, and I’m not betting on it, but it has my attention.

CeeDee Lamb: With Prescott playing well, Lamb is very much along for the ride. Over the past two weeks, he has caught 23 of 30 targets of 349 yards and two touchdowns. Not that you needed a reason to be confident in Lamb, but he did account for 53.8% of Dallas’ receiving yards in the first meeting with the Giants.

The league doesn’t have an answer for Lamb, and the Giants are no exception.

Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks: This offense doesn’t function in a way that provides value to a second receiver. Don’t overthink it. Gallup has just 39 yards on six targets during this Prescott heater, while Cooks has been held under five targets in five straight games.

Neither of these receivers is worth rostering in anything but the deepest of formats – it’s Lamb and Jake Ferguson in this passing game, nothing more.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Daniel Bellinger ran a route on 76.2% of New York dropbacks last week, with Waller (hamstring) being placed on IR. You can safely cut ties with Waller at this point and look elsewhere for a replacement.

Jake Ferguson: He has scored in consecutive weeks and has hauled in 22 of 25 targets (88%) since the beginning of October. The yardage floor is low due to the nature of this offense (four games under 30 yards), but every TE outside of the elite comes with concerns.

Ferguson is safely ahead of the TE blob, and that means he’s weekly locked into my top 10.

Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -6
Total: 46.5
Commanders implied points: 20.3
Seahawks implied points: 26.3

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: My QB12 this week has thrown at least 40 passes in three straight games (and five of his past six) and has six games this season with a 10+ yard rush. Put aside what you think of Howell as a player; that’s a fantasy-friendly role that deserves a look against a low-blitz defense that likely won’t put Howell in a position to fail.

The ceiling outcome isn’t overwhelming, but with just two finishes outside of the top 14 QBs, he’s the type of band-aid I’m actively targeting if I’m in a bind this week.

Geno Smith: The regression is real. Smith impressed last season, but that is very much proving to be the outlier and not the rule. He has five games without multiple touchdowns this season and has cleared 10 rushing yards just twice.

Nothing Smith did last season has carried over to this season, and he doesn’t deserve the consideration of those looking for a rental at the position with their star on bye.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr.: Process over results. Process over results. Process over results.

Robinson is a limited runner who relies on touchdowns in a below-average offense, and that is a profile that I’m happy to fade. I’ve been wrong, but I stand by the process. Robinson has scored in six of nine games this season, an unsustainable rate.

2022: TD once every 71.3 touches
2023: TD once every 18.1 touches

He doesn’t have a 10-yard rush in four of his past five games and saw his snap edge over Antonio Gibson shrink last week (44-34). Outside of running hot in terms of scoring, nothing in Robinson’s profile suggests that he is a reliable fantasy piece.

Be careful in relying on him. I have Robinson ranked next to the Pittsburgh and Cleveland running backs — risky plays that don’t have a net to catch them.

Kenneth Walker III: I wish I could explain the sudden pivot off of K9 as a feature back for you, but I really can’t. After posting 17+ carries in five straight games, he has a total of 17 attempts over the past two weeks as the team has made a clear point to get Zach Charbonnet more involved.

Also gone is his role in the passing game, as he’s totaled just 11 receiving yards over his past three games. He remained the early-down back in Seattle last week (21-5 snap edge on first and second downs), and that is enough to keep him ahead of Charbonnet in my ranks, but he’s well outside of the RB1 tier – a tier in which he was a part of for the majority of the first two months.

Zach Charbonnet: While the rookie is chipping away at Walker’s role, he’s yet to turn it into much in the way of fantasy value. Charbonnet hasn’t cleared 10 touches in a game this season and has no more than five carries in four straight.

The Seahawks used him in every pressing situation last week (third downs and two-minute situations), and while that’s noteworthy, it’s not overly friendly in terms of fantasy potential. Charbonnet should be rostered, but his impact on the fantasy world right now is lowering the value of Walker more than it is holding any value of his own.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: With at least five catches in four straight games and in seven of his past eight, McLaurin’s usage is that of a weekly lineup lock. He’s even added some upside to his profile of late with a 25+ yard catch in three straight.

McLaurin’s value at the WR position is similar to that of Howell at the QB position – safe and without significant risk. This offense isn’t going to give its WR1 a ton of upside (one score in his past seven games), but with a top-five pass-rate-over-expectation mark through nine weeks, the floor is elevated in a nice way.

Jahan Dotson: Don’t look now, but the pride of Penn State has seen at least eight targets in each of his past three games and has scored in consecutive contests.

The touchdown last week was a 33-yarder that all came in the air, reminding us of the upside he showcased a season ago. The big plays are a large part of what Dotson does, and the fact that he ran a route on 78.8% of Howell dropbacks last season was a big step in the right direction when it comes to him holding consistent Flex appeal.

The Seahawks blitz at the sixth-lowest rate in the league, and that should afford Dotson the time to work down the field. I’m ranking him as a solid WR3 this week, thanks to the recent target surge, understanding that the per-target potential is strong.

DK Metcalf: He injured his ribs earlier in the season and battled through a hip injury last week but was able to haul in just one pass during the blowout at the hands of the Ravens.

Whatever the opposite of “a rising tide lifting all boats” is what is going on in Seattle. The steps backward taken by Smith have impacted the value of his pass catchers in a major way – Metcalf has been held under 70 receiving yards in four straight.

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Metcalf hasn’t turned in a top-20 performance this season, and I’m done with ranking him that way. He sits just outside of that range for me, checking in behind Jakobi Meyers and Courtland Sutton.

Tyler Lockett: The veteran receiver has been an underrated asset for years now, but it seems as if the clock has hit midnight. Boom/bust games are nothing new to Lockett managers, but the “boom” has been missing of late in a significant way.

For the second time this season, Lockett has gone three straight games without a 20-yard reception. That’s a low bar to clear, but the struggles of Smith have prevented Lockett from making the splash plays, and that has relegated him to fantasy benches in most situations.

Locektt’s catch rate has dipped to 66.7% from 71.8% last season and is now in that Gabe Davis zone of chaos. He currently ranks below the other all-or-nothing types – give me Tank Dell, Jahan Dotson, or Davis over Lockett this week. You hate to see it.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie is carving out a nice little niche in this offense, and while I’m not yet ranking him as a Flex option, he’s approaching that tier of receiver.

Last week, JSN matched Metcalf in routes run and posted his third straight top-35 effort. I didn’t think that, after nine weeks, all three of these receivers would be within 20 spots in my WR ranks, but that is where we are!

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: There might not be a better representation of the low-end TEs than Thomas. Despite having just one game north of 51 receiving yards this season, the fact that he has at least six targets in three straight games is appealing to us.

He’s not doing much with those looks, but the idea that he’s at least earning the opportunity to produce puts him ahead of his cohorts in the tight-end position.

Thomas ran a route on 84.6% of Washington dropbacks last weekend, and in an offense that spreads the ball around, that gives him enough target upside to be considered a lead streaming option against the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the league.

New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Jets -1.5
Total: 36
Jets implied points: 18.8
Raiders implied points: 17.3

Quarterbacks

Aiden O’Connell: I thought the rookie held his own against the Giants, and with 50% of his targets going to either Jakobi Meyers or Davante Adams, O’Connell did enough to satisfy fantasy managers.

He himself isn’t worth a look, even in Superflex leagues, but if he continues to focus on his two primary receivers, this Raiders offense has a chance to remain fantasy-viable.

Running Backs

Breece Hall: The beauty of versatility. Hall has four catches or a 40-yard run in five straight games and seems to flash his upside at least once on a weekly basis.

The Raiders boast the sixth-worst defense both in the red zone and on a per-carry basis, giving Hall a couple of ways to pay off my ranking of him as not only the top back in this game but a top-10 play for the week as a whole.

Hall’s future is bright, and if this offense can develop any balance down the stretch (be it as a result of growth from Zach Wilson or a dramatic Aaron Rodgers return), he could well pay off his preseason ADP.

Josh Jacobs: The big Week 9 was a sight for sore eyes: 26 carries for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That was the third time in a month in which Jacobs carried the ball at least 20 times, and game flow worked very much in his favor – is that sustainable?

Long-term, I’d say no, and his zero targets last week are concerning when the script isn’t in favor of the run game. That said, there’s no reason to think they can’t be competitive in this spot against a Jets team that struggles to score.

Jacobs is a top-12 RB for me and a solid start in all formats as he looks to build on his best performance of the season.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Do we give Wilson enough credit?

He has quietly posted three straight WR2 finishes — production that we feared would not be possible with Zach Wilson under center.

MORE: Fantasy Week 10 Start/Sit

The upside is pretty clearly limited, but the floor is higher than I thought he’d have access to, and that makes him a top-20 play for me in this favorable spot.

Davante Adams: Without a top-30 finish since Week 4 or a touchdown since Week 3, Adams is among the most disappointing of the healthy early-round picks this summer.

He didn’t have a target until we were inside the two-minute warning of the first half last week, something that feels impossible as the Raiders work to get a rookie quarterback comfortable with the speed of the professional game.

I’m hopeful that the second-half involvement last week is a sign of things to come, and that has me ranking him in the same range as Wilson – a fantasy WR2 with a wide range of outcomes. Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson are two receivers that I think have less natural ability than Adams, but I have both of them ranked higher due to their elevated floors.

Jakobi Meyers: He was responsible for the only catch on Vegas’ first drive last week, a drive that he capped with a 17-yard score. It’s pretty clear that this organization (not just former HC Josh McDaniels) believes in Meyers’ ability, and I see no reason for that to change moving forward.

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: The rookie tight end continues to split duties with Austin Hooper, and that lowers his usage potential to a point where I’m not comfortable ranking him as a top-15 play.

Mayer had the big Week 6 against the Patriots with five catches for 75 yards, but he has managed just five catches and 43 yards in the three games since. He deserves tracking, but you can do better when it comes to Week 10.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -7.5
Total: 47
Broncos implied points: 19.8
Bills implied points: 27.3

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: It’s often said that your true self is revealed during adversity. Well, we are getting that in Allen, and fantasy managers should be thrilled. In his first six games this season, he recorded 22 rush attempts. In the last three, he tallied the same amount of attempts (22).

Allen has a rushing score in three straight games — and in six of his past seven. We know the passing opportunities are going to be there — he’s had 25+ completions in three straight — but if the rushing continues to trend up, Allen has the chance to be a league winner.

Some will point to the fact that he has thrown an interception in five straight games and use that as a reason to worry about his play. “His play” is concerning, but “his play” and “his fantasy production” are not the same. He makes plenty of questionable decisions, but his aggression is what makes him an asset, and he’s trending in the right direction at the right time.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: Locked and loaded, Denver’s promising young back got 30 touches in the surprise win over the Chiefs in Week 8 with 98 yards and a TD, and he held up well. The efficiency wasn’t great (3.1 ypc), but the involvement is what we are targeting, given the raw talent of Williams.

He has at least three catches in three of his past four games and has a 15-plus yard rush in five of his past six. This Bills defense isn’t what it was at the beginning of the season from a health perspective, and that gives me exactly zero hesitation in starting Williams following the bye.

James Cook: It’s not you — it’s the role. Cook is a good player, but the Bills just aren’t using him in a fantasy-friendly fashion. RB Latavius Murray worked in for 26 snaps (Cook: 32 snaps), but the majority of those came in two-minute situations.

Cook can be as efficient as he wants, but without access to the cheap production that comes in two-minute situations or goal-line touches, his ceiling isn’t high enough to be a true difference-maker. He’s a starter in all formats against the worst per-carry rush defense in the league. But be careful in setting your expectations too high.

Leonard Fournette: The six-year veteran was signed to the practice squad last week and wasn’t on the active roster for the loss in Cincinnati (not everyone is Minnesota Vikings QB Josh Dobbs, after all). With over 1,600 touches on his NFL résumé, “Lombardi Lenny’s” legs likely lack longevity, but he can give this team a boost down the stretch.

He’s a fine depth signing in real life, but there’s no action to take in fantasy circles.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Remember all the way back in the Washington write-up when I complained about RB Brian Robinson’s reliance on scoring and how it’s a dangerous way to live, but he’s defying regression models by cashing in weekly?

Sutton is the receiver version of Robinson. He has scored in three straight games and in six of eight, despite being held under 50 yards in four of his past five and pacing for just 70 catches. He has been running extremely hot in terms of scoring, and while his athleticism has made that production possible, scoring once every 7.7 targets is unsustainable.

He’s a live play against a Bills defense that I don’t trust, but there is the scent of a Ponzi scheme when trying to project forward.

Jerry Jeudy: This summer, Jeudy was drafted as a receiver who could flirt with a WR2 ranking on a consistent basis, and yet, his next top-25 finish at the position will be his first. He’s been held under 65 yards in each of his past five games and has underwhelmed on a consistent basis.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel? He scored his first touchdown of the season prior to the Week 9 bye, and that’s a good start. In theory, this could be a good bounce-back spot for his volume (current pace: 66 catches). Denver is a significant underdog against a banged-up Bills defense, but this would appear to be more of a Sutton spot.

Through nine weeks, the Bills own the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT, and Jeudy’s aDOT is 33.3% higher than that of Sutton. Jeudy checks in as a low-end Flex play for me, while Sutton is more in the WR2 conversation.

Stefon Diggs: It’s really amazing that no matter the version of Allen we get, Diggs’s numbers are there. He has a touchdown or a dozen targets in seven straight games, and seems inevitable if you watch this offense for more than five minutes. Diggs may not post the best statistical season at the position, but his week-over-week consistency is second to no one.

Gabe Davis: It was too easy — simply too easy. Everything from Davis’ impressive Week 8 pointed in the direction of a maturing young receiver in an explosive offense.

“He’s my WR18 this week,” I said just seven days ago, with the utmost confidence, feeling that the Bills had finally unlocked their WR2.

Then, Lucy pulled the football away from Charlie Brown. You know it’s coming, but it hurts a little bit more every time you fall for the same shenanigans.

Davis was targeted twice on Sunday night against the Bengals. Both were high-risk, high-reward looks. One was intercepted, and the other fell harmlessly into the end zone. If he catches both, we are looking at a double-digit point performance, but he caught neither and burnt you in a major way.

In this world of change and growth, we can always count on Davis being what he is. How lucky do you feel this week? He was on the field plenty last week (54 of 58 snaps), and that fuels the process of wanting to bet on him. He might pay off.

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 10 — Baker Mayfield, Keaton Mitchell, and Khalil Shakir Are Quality Starting Options

I could make the case that working opposite CB Patrick Surtain II puts him in a good spot, but we know how this goes: does he or does he not make the big play? He’s just outside of my top 30 at the position this week as I sort through this PTSD — Post Traumatic Starting of Davis.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: That’s three straight big games for Kincaid (23 catches for 221 yards and a TD) as his ascension up the rankings continues. He ran a route on 97.7% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks on Sunday night, and with Davis reverting back to the all-or-nothing role, Kincaid is the second option in this pass-centric offense.

I don’t think he can catch Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta, but he’s making a strong case, and the role is going nowhere with Buffalo starter Dawson Knox injured.

Credit to you if you played the long game and held onto Kincaid during a bumpy first month of his career — you’ve got one of the six tight ends that can be started with confidence on a weekly basis.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Kyle Soppe’s Week 10 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Outlooks for David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Aaron Jones, and More

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

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Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

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