Facebook Pixel

Week 1 NFL Picks and Predictions: Can the Cowboys and Ravens Put Playoff Disappointments Behind Them?

Published on

As we look ahead to Week 1 of the NFL season, what are our early picks and predictions for all 16 games, and who are our best bets?

The NFL preseason is over, and players, coaches, fans, fantasy managers, and bettors alike are turning their attention to the regular season. After trying to pick storylines and trends involving backup players for the last three weeks, we finally get to sink our teeth into regular-season NFL action.

The season, Pro Football Network will be with you all season to give our picks and predictions for every NFL game. This article serves two purposes; to help people with their pick ’em columns, where you normally have to pick all 16 games, and to highlight our best bets for the week. Therefore, whatever your angle for seeking our angles on the upcoming games we will have you covered.

NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Aug. 29, 2024.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

  • Moneyline: Ravens +130; Chiefs -155
  • Total: 46.5

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs begin their season by hosting the first game in the traditional manner. Last year, the Detroit Lions came into Kansas City and upset the Chiefs on what was supposed to be their special night. This year, the Baltimore Ravens will be looking to do the same.

This game is a repeat of last year’s AFC Championship Game when the Chiefs prevailed while keeping the Ravens’ offense to just 10 points. However, turnovers were a big part of it, with Baltimore turning the ball over three times compared to Kansas City’s zero.

Look for Baltimore to be out for revenge in Arrowhead against a Chiefs team that has looked a little sluggish in the first month of the season in recent years.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Chiefs 23
Pick:
Ravens +3

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5; Brazil)

  • Moneyline: Packers +120; Eagles -142
  • Total: 48.5

For the first time, the NFL heads to Brazil, and it gives us a Friday Night Football game in Week 1. These two teams are among the favorites to win the NFC in 2024, so this has the potential to be an exciting game in São Paulo.

The Green Bay Packers finished the 2023 season as one of the hottest teams, while the Philadelphia Eagles lost six of their final seven after starting the year 10-1. Across the last two years, the Eagles are 20-2 in their combined first 11 games of the year, so they’re a team that has learned to start well under Nick Sirianni.

In contrast, the Packers have struggled in the early part of the year, going a combined 5-5 in their first five games of the last two years. Taking Philadelphia to cover is the lean option, but after this Eagles team completely lost it late last season, it’s hard to trust them.

Predictions: Eagles 30, Packers 27
Pick:
Lean Eagles -1.5

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6)

  • Moneyline: Cardinals +225; Bills -278
  • Total: 48

This game screams upset because the Buffalo Bills’ offense appears to have gone backward while the Arizona Cardinals have added Marvin Harrison Jr. If this game was later in the season when the weather could have an impact, you would tilt favoritism to the Bills against an indoor team.

This game feels high-scoring, but I do not trust the Bills to do that. Therefore, I lean towards the over but struggle to actually make the jump on it. However, I do like the underdog here, given that the dogs are 56-35-4 in the first two weeks. I actually like Arizona outright, and not just against the spread.

Prediction: Cardinals 27; Bills 24
Pick:
Cardinals +6; Lean Over 48

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3)

  • Moneyline: Jaguars +136; Dolphins -162
  • Total: 49.5

The 2024 season opens with a battle between two of the three Florida teams in an intriguing contest. The Jacksonville Jaguars were underwhelming last year and entered this season with major question marks after paying Trevor Lawrence before seeing if he has what it takes to lead them on a long playoff run.

Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are in a contract standoff with Tua Tagovailoa after his impressive start to the 2023 season petered out into yet another playoff disappointment. Both of these teams have a huge amount to prove, and this Week 1 contest could have importance down the line in what is expected to be a tight AFC battle this year.

PLAYOFF PREDICTOR: Simulate The 2024 NFL Season

The Dolphins were very impressive at home in the early part of last season, going 4-0 with a total of 174 points scored before their trip to Germany and their subsequent bye week. The Jaguars also started 4-0 on the road last year, including impressive wins in Buffalo and New Orleans.

This is a really tough game to judge in terms of the result, but I do expect there to be plenty of scoring. Jacksonville averaged 22.2 points per game last year, while Miami was at 29.2, so the over is very much in play here between two offensive-minded teams.

Prediction: Dolphins 30, Jaguars 27
Pick:
Over 49.5

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

  • Moneyline: Texans -135; Colts +114
  • Total: 48.5

This game is really intriguing because it is an early matchup between two of the favorites in the AFC South. Last year, it was the Houston Texans who came out on top, but the Indianapolis Colts also did not have their shiny new toy in rookie QB Anthony Richardson last year. That looks like being different in Week 1 this year, barring a practice disaster.

That unknown regarding the impact of Richardson makes it tough to judge who will come out on top in this game. The success rate in the early season for a road team that made the playoffs last year is around 50%, essentially making this game a pick ’em. That might lean you toward the Colts, but I would rather bank on these two young QBs having big days in an indoor environment to open the season.

Prediction: Texans 28; Colts 27
Pick:
Lean Over 48.5

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-1)

  • Moneyline: Vikings -118; Giants -102
  • Total: 41.5

There are so many unknowns in this game. We at least now know that Sam Darnold will be the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, but who knows what that looks like in reality? The Vikings offense has some talented pieces, but if Darnold cannot consistently get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, that talent will be largely wasted.

As for the Giants, every time I believe in Daniel Jones, he kicks me where it hurts. Therefore, I prefer not to put too much faith or bankroll in the Giants’ quarterback. Given that his best-skill position player is a rookie quarterback, and after that, it is a veteran RB that they picked up in free agency, I do not put too much faith in what we may see from this offense.

I think this game will be relatively low-scoring but the total here is already accounting for that. Therefore, with so much uncertainty, I am simply going to pass.

Prediction: Giants 21; Vikings 20
Pick:
No Play

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-9)

  • Moneyline: Patriots +340; Bengals -440
  • Total: 41

Jacoby Brissett has been named the New England Patriots starting quarterback, which at least reduces the range of outcomes. Drake Maye would have had a higher ceiling and floor, making this game almost impossible to call. With Brissett, the Patriots likely play things relatively safe, which limits their opportunity to win but also reduces their chances of being blown out somewhat.

The Bengals should win this game, but they have their own headaches, such as the Ja’Marr Chase contract situation. That in itself should not be enough to derail a team that is clearly more talented, but it could be a frustrating sideshow next week.

Ultimately, I never like a team to win by 10 points, and therefore, I will not do that with the Bengals. Instead, I will make it part of a six-point tease, potentially paired with the Gitants-Vikings total moving up six points. Either way, I am avoiding betting it straight up, but I will have action favoring the Bengals this week.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Patriots 13
Pick:
Bengals -3 in a six-point tease with a second-leg

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

  • Moneyline: Steelers +124; Falcons -148
  • Total: 40.5

The NFL scheduling team was having some fun with this one when they decided to send new Pittsburgh Steelers OC Arthur Smith back to the Atlanta Falcons team he was the head coach of last season. The hope is that the change in regime in Atlanta, combined with Cousins’ arrival, will lead to a very different-looking Falcons team.

BETTING TOOL: Try PFN’s Parlay Calculator!

There seems to be little doubt that Cousins will be full go in Week 1 and we now know it will be Russell Wilson against him. What we saw from the Steelers at times this preseason was alarming, but caveated by the fact it is only preseason. However, we are not expecting their offense to put up huge numbers, and the Falcons should be more than capable of getting to 20 points.

I am hesitant to take the Falcons just because we have not seen what this team looks like, but that is definitely the way my head is going.

Predictions: Falcons 23; Steelers 17
Pick:
Lean Falcons -3

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5)

  • Moneyline: Titans +180; Bears -218
  • Total: 45

The Chicago Bears’ offense has undergone a major reshaping with the arrival of Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, and Caleb Williams. After having a below-average passing offense last season, that should change significantly in 2024, and Chicago will look to make a Week 1 statement against the Tennessee Titans.

Tennessee is in a state of transition right now with a new head coach and major changes across its offense. It’s hard to see the Titans coming out strong in Week 1 on the road against a charged-up Bears team. I don’t love laying 4.5 points with a rookie QB in his first start, but the schedulers couldn’t have given Chicago a much softer start.

Predictions: Bears 27; Titans 17
Pick:
Bears -4.5

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)

  • Moneyline: Panthers +164; Saints -198
  • Total: 40.5

It’s hard to imagine the Carolina Panthers being as bad as they were last year, but there could be some initial stumbles as they transition to the Dave Canales era. Starting on the road in the always tough environment of the Superdome is less than ideal for a team that was bottom five on both offense and defense last season.

The New Orleans Saints have somewhat slid under the radar this offseason after a strong finish left them just outside of a playoff spot in 2023. They went 4-7-1 as underdogs last year but finished 3-0 in games they were favored, including a 20-point victory over the Panthers.

I fully expect the Panthers to put up more of a fight in the opening week than they did down the stretch last year. In Week 2 of the 2023 season, they pushed as three-point underdogs when hosting the Saints. This line feels about right, as does the total, so there’s no play here.

Predictions: Saints 21; Panthers 18
Pick:
No Play

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

  • Moneyline: Broncos +195; Seahawks -238
  • Total: 42

The Denver Broncos looked good in preseason, but they were really one of the only teams playing hard with starting options. That might make people think this team is better than it is, but you should not be fooled, it is going to be a tough season. Bo Nix is a solid option as a starter, but he does not have the same upside as a C.J. Stroud type player.

The problem is that the Seahawks themselves are not a sure thing. Geno Smith took a step back last year after a fairytale in 2023, and they have a new head coach, which creates another unknown. My early read on the Seahawks is that they will be defensively sound and opportunistic on offense.

The path to Seattle’s winning by six or more will be holding the Broncos’ offense to 10-13 points and then getting into that 17-20 region. That is possible, but not something I am betting on. I will avoid playing this game directly, but I might tease the total up to 48.5.

Prediction: Seahawks 17; Broncos 13
Pick:
Tease the total to 48.5 and take the under.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

  • Moneyline: Raiders +145; Chargers -175
  • Total: 42

Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL, and the Los Angeles Chargers have immediately made their intentions known with their coordinator hires and offseason moves.

Greg Roman is reunited with Harbaugh, while Joe Alt was L.A.’s first-round draft pick to play opposite Rashawn Slater. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins replace Austin Ekeler in the running back room, completing that transition from high-flying to hard-nosed offense.

The Las Vegas Raiders have had a quieter offseason by comparison, but they also enter the season with a new full-time head coach, an offensive coordinator, and likely a new quarterback under center. All that cumulative change makes this a really tough game to break down and pick a side.

Predictions: Chargers 24; Raiders 17
Pick:
No Play

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

  • Moneyline: Cowboys +114; Browns -135
  • Total: 42

This line confuses me because I have the Dallas Cowboys as the better team, even on the road. We have no idea what version of Deshaun Watson we are going to see, but we’ve yet to see him really firing for the Cleveland Browns.

In contrast, we know what to expect from the Cowboys, who had the best offense in the league and a top-five defense last year.

Dallas didn’t cover as underdogs at all last year, going 0-4, and with all of them coming on the road. The Browns are technically favored right now, but this is, for all intents and purposes, a pick ’em. In games where the Cowboys were favored on the road last year, they went 4-1 against the spread.

I fully expected the Cowboys to open the game as favorites here and have already backed them on the money line and +1. I am also taking them +2.5, and I am setting myself up to be very disappointed in Week 1.

Predictions: Cowboys 27; Browns 17
Pick:
Cowboys ML

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

  • Moneyline: Commanders +154; Buccaneers -185
  • Total: 42.5

The Washington Commanders are the other big unknown this year after wholesale changes across their coaching and QB situations. They face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that surprised many last year with its performances.

Jayden Daniels with Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator is a mouth-watering proposition, but will it result in immediate success?

The Buccaneers lost the man many credited as their key piece with Canales’ departure, who was their OC last year. Tampa Bay was mediocre as favorites last year, going 3-3, as opposed to an 8-4-1 record when playing as an underdog. When favored at home, they went 2-3, and there is enough doubt here to make me lean toward backing what will hopefully be an exciting Washington team.

Predictions: Buccaneers 21; Commanders 20
Pick:
Lean Commanders +3.5

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

  • Moneyline: Rams +145; Lions -175
  • Total: 51

The first Sunday Night Football game of the year sees Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff face off in a battle of the two quarterbacks who swapped teams a few years ago. Not many believed at the time that Goff would be the player leading the Lions into a new era as NFC challengers, but here we are.

The Rams are still a playoff-caliber team when Stafford is at the helm (9-6 in 2023), but they struggled when he wasn’t on the field. Meanwhile, Detroit was superb last year, going 11-5 against the spread when favored and only failing to cover once in the last six weeks — which ironically was when they hosted L.A. in last year’s Wild Card game.

BETTING TOOL: Check Out PFN’s Betting Odds Calculator!

I like the Rams to play the Lions close here, and I lean toward taking them to get 3.5 points. The total is set to be similar to last year’s Wild Card contest, which went under. However, that game had much more tension to it with the stakes in Detroit, so this will likely prove to be a game played with more flowing football.

Predictions: Lions 27; Rams 24
Pick:
Lean Rams +3.5

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

  • Moneyline: Jets +164; 49ers -198
  • Total: 44

Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football in Week 1, what could go wrong?

Ironically, the New York Jets may have breathed a sigh of relief that this game is not on their own turf after Rodgers’ injury to open last season. We have no real idea what the Rodgers-led Jets will look like on the field, but they’ll have their work cut out to cover against the San Francisco 49ers on the road.

The 49ers were not great at covering spreads last year, going 9-10-1 and failing to cover five of their last six. With Rodgers under center, my lean initially was to the Jets getting 5.5 points. However, the line has now slid to 3.5 and I actually prefer the 49ers on that line. I now have action on both sides of this game, so I am hoping for a four-point game.

Predictions: 49ers 24; Jets 20
Pick:
Lean 49ers -3.5

NFL Week 1 Best Bets

My favorite plays of Week 1 are the Ravens to cover against the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football and the Cowboys to win outright in Cleveland.

A lot went right for Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game last year, and I believe Baltimore only got stronger this offseason. The Chiefs can be sluggish starters to a new season, while the Ravens, in recent years, have been electric in the preseason and early in the season.

In Cleveland, we also have a Dallas team with plenty to prove. After another humiliating playoff exit, the pressure is on for Mike McCarthy and his team. The Browns were a surprise package last year, but their roster isn’t as good as the Cowboys’, plus they have a bigger question mark at QB.

Related Stories