Wide receivers massively underwhelmed in 2024. Just don't blame Chase for contributing. The Bengals WR1 led all non-QBs with 23.7 fantasy points per game and won the WR triple crown, leading the league in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. Cincinnati's defense won't be as bad next year, but Chase remains a supreme alpha playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
It speaks volumes about Justin Jefferson that "only" averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game feels like a down year. The perennial WR1 caught 103 passes for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns. There's really not much to say about Jefferson. He's a sure thing with an incredibly high floor and overall WR1 upside.
Puka Nacua's usage was incredible. If you remove the game he got hurt and the game he got ejected, Nacua's 17-game pace put him on track to earn 200 targets. He's an elite talent with the perfect QB in the perfect system. There's no 1a/1b debate with Cooper Kupp anymore. Nacua is the 1. Nacua averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game this season, but that bumps up to 21.8 ppg if you remove the two games he did not finish.
For the first time in his career, CeeDee Lamb did not average more fantasy points per game than the previous season. Of course, that was to be expected after Lamb averaged 23.7 ppg in 2023. Playing half the season without Dak Prescott and through a sprained shoulder, Lamb still managed to average 17.6 ppg. He saw a 27.3% target share was targeted on nearly 30% of his routes run. Lamb is still an elite WR1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown posted 11 games with 18+ fantasy points, which was about his average (18.6 ppg), and mixed in a couple underwhelming games with two mega explosions. The 2025 Lions offense is going to look a lot like the 2024 Lions, which looked a lot like the 2023 Lions. St. Brown epitomizes reliable and is once again a worthy mid-to-late first round selection.
Entering 2024, there were some wondering if Nico Collins' 2023 breakout was a fluke. We have our answer. Collins followed up his excellent 2023 with an even better 2024. The Texans WR1 was a clear alpha. He led the team in target share was the obvious favorite target for C.J. Stroud. Collins averaged 17.55 fantasy points per game in a Texans offense that really took a step back following Stroud's stellar rookie season. They should bounce back in 2025, which gives Collins 20 ppg upside.
Think about everything that worked against Malik Nabers as a rookie. He caught passes from three different quarterbacks, none of whom are viable NFL starters. Yet, Nabers managed to break the record for rookie receptions (which was subsequently broken by Brock Bowers later that day) despite missing two games and having to deal with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito at QB. Nabers averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game, which not only led all non-Jayden Daniels rookies, but was good for overall WR5. There's simply no way Nabers' situation can be worse in 2025. Somehow, I actually think what Nabers just did is close to his floor. I fully expect Nabers to be in the No. 1 overall pick conversation after next season.
Thomas had about an even split between Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones. He averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game with Lawrence, but an incredible 19.7 ppg with Jones. We often see rookie WRs start to figure it out over the second half of the season. Thomas was a league winner in every sense of the term, posting games of 32.5, 28.2, and 23.9 during the three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. You can bet fantasy managers remember that. With Lawrence likely not going anywhere, QB play will once again be a net negative for Thomas. Nevertheless, Thomas demonstrated elite talent and upside, and looks to be a mainstay in the ranks of the WR1s for years to come.
Last year, we paid for the Drake London breakout in advance. He delivered. After two years outside of the top 40, London averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR13. Toward the very end of the season, London demonstrated impressive rapport with rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. That connection will only improve as Penix gets a full offseason as the clear starter in this offense. London should be even better in 2025.
A.J. Brown is such a difficult player to buy into. It has nothing to do with his talent -- that's there in spades. The problem is he keeps carrying a valuation near the top six wide receivers despite never demonstrating an ability or any semblance of 20 ppg upside. No one is getting upset over their WR1 producing WR1 numbers. Brown does that every year. But he's now 28 years old. We know who he is. Brown is someone who has averaged between 16.7 and 17.7 fantasy points per game four of the past five years. Add in the fact that the Eagles' offense runs through Saquon Barkley, as evidenced by their league high 53% neutral game script run rate, and Brown can't be a high-volume WR. In 2025, we should expect the same Brown we've seen for the past half-decade. He's a WR1, but his ceiling is about WR6.
Rice posted games of 17.3, 18.5, and 29.1 in the first three weeks of the season. He averaged just under 10 targets per game. Xavier Worthy came on strong late in the season, but his production was mostly layup targets with the Chiefs scheming him the ball. A healthy Rice will not be threatened by Worthy. There will be plenty to go around for both of them. As managers may recall, the Chiefs want to reduce Travis Kelce's role, if he even returns for another season. With all of their WRs healthy in 2025, they'll be able to do that. Regardless of whether Kelce, Hollywood Brown, or DeAndre Hopkins come back, Rice is going to be the alpha.
It's safe to assume Tyreek Hill won't be playing football for the Dolphins in 2025. I can't remember a wide receiver ever being so blunt in wanting out. Hill is now 31 years old, but certainly looks far from done. His 13.4 fantasy points per game were a career low, but that had more to do with the disastrous QB situation than anything else. Hill still averaged 15 ppg with Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately, he was at 10 ppg with Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley. Wherever Hill ends up, he should still be the alpha. Of course, landing spot will matter. However, based on Hill's comments following the first year of his career in which his team did not make the playoffs, Hill wants to win. It stands to reason he will join a team with a good quarterback.
