The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started the season on fire offensively and ended it on fire. Despite some tough times in the middle stretch of the season with lots of injuries, the Bucs pulled through and are in the playoffs. Liam Coen is a coordinator that has to be at the top of some future head coaching lists with how he’s been scheming this offense up.
The Washington Commanders are one of the biggest surprises of the season. Jayden Daniels has played lights out and is easily winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The Commanders were in the top three in terms of wins above their preseason projected win total from Vegas.
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bucs -3 - Moneyline
Bucs (-170); Commanders (+142) - Over/Under
50.5 total points - Game Time
8:00 p.m ET - Location
Raymond James Stadium
Commanders vs. Bucs Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Bucs rank fourth in EPA (expected points added), third in success rate, fifth in explosive passing rate, and third in explosive rushing rate. There really isn’t a key weakness offensively for Tampa. Their worst ranking was their average starting field position (21st) and their performance against the blitz, which still ranks 12th in the league.
Part of what makes this offense tick is that Baker Mayfield has been playing quite well. According to PFN’s stats and insights, the Bucs have picked up 61.4% of their third downs in the past four weeks. Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games and ranks sixth in EPA per play this season.
The unsung hero of this team is the offensive line, who has been absolutely lights out in pass protection this season. The Bucs’ offensive line has allowed a pressure on 24.4% of dropbacks this season, which is first in the league. They also lead the league in quick pressure rate allowed, with only 9.9% of their dropbacks resulting in a pressure in under 2.5 seconds.
In the last decade, that quick pressure rate ranks sixth and the overall pressure rate ranks 11th. What makes it even more impressive is that they average 2.82 seconds to throw the ball, which is the 20th fastest. They aren’t getting the ball out quickly like some other teams, showing trust in the offensive line to hold up.
This matchup will be key against a Commanders defense that ranks 12th in pressure rate but are 25th in EPA when generating pressure. Luckily for the Bucs, their pressure versus no pressure splits aren’t terrible, going from fifth in EPA to ninth in EPA.
The clearest advantage for the Tampa Bay offense is in explosive play creation. Washington’s defense is giving up 3.8 rushes of 10 or more yards per game (26th). Bucky Irving could have game-breaking potential in this game, which is already reflected in his DraftKings rushing line. Despite averaging just 65.9 yards a game, 90+ yards is priced at -110, which is a 52.38% implied probability.
Another key point of attack will be in late-down situations. Tampa ranks sixth in EPA in such situations whereas the Commanders’ defense is 19th. PFN’s QB+ metric employs a clutch component, which evaluates quarterback performance in the fourth quarter of one-score games. In this category, Mayfield ranks third with 0.35 EPA per dropback.
While Tampa’s defense has been poor all season, they have improved over the season. I created an improvement index for both sides of the ball, where I evaluate a team’s performance throughout the season. Tampa ranks third defensively, indicating that they have improved tremendously and are peaking at just the right time.
One of their top characteristics is pressuring the quarterback. They rank fifth in pressure generated, second in quick pressure generated, and blitz the second-most in the league. Washington’s offense should have no issues with this, ranking fifth in EPA under pressure and second when blitzed.
The difference maker in this game will be Daniels’ ability to scramble and play outside of the pocket. Tampa’s defense ranks 32nd in EPA on plays outside of the pocket, 29th against scrambles, and 17th against designed quarterback runs. This could be a major problem for Tampa. Daniels added 56.0 EPA on scrambles this season, the second-best in a season since 2000 (behind 2022 Justin Fields).
While both offenses have advantages, Washington’s offense has a clearer path to exploit Tampa Bay’s defensive weaknesses, especially if they can utilize their quarterback’s mobility and success outside the pocket. However, Tampa Bay’s ability to generate explosive runs could tilt the balance.
My pick: Commanders ML (+142)