The Washington Commanders‘ fantasy preview talks about the sustainability of Brian Robinson’s fantasy football value, while the Seattle Seahawks‘ outlook looks at how Geno Smith’s struggles are impacting the rest of the offense.
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: Seahawks -6
- Total: 46.5
- Commanders implied points: 20.3
- Seahawks implied points: 26.3
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: My QB12 this week has thrown at least 40 passes in three straight games (and five of his past six) and has six games this season with a 10+ yard rush. Put aside what you think of Howell as a player; that’s a fantasy-friendly role that deserves a look against a low-blitz defense that likely won’t put Howell in a position to fail.
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The ceiling outcome isn’t overwhelming, but with just two finishes outside of the top 14 QBs, he’s the type of band-aid I’m actively targeting if I’m in a bind this week.
Geno Smith: The regression is real. Smith impressed last season, but that is very much proving to be the outlier and not the rule. He has five games without multiple touchdowns this season and has cleared 10 rushing yards just twice.
Nothing Smith did last season has carried over to this season, and he doesn’t deserve the consideration of those looking for a rental at the position with their star on bye.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr.: Process over results. Process over results. Process over results.
Robinson is a limited runner who relies on touchdowns in a below-average offense, and that is a profile that I’m happy to fade. I’ve been wrong, but I stand by the process. Robinson has scored in six of nine games this season, an unsustainable rate. Per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet:
- 2022: TD once every 71.3 touches
- 2023: TD once every 18.1 touches
He doesn’t have a 10-yard rush in four of his past five games and saw his snap edge over Antonio Gibson shrink last week (44-34). Outside of running hot in terms of scoring, nothing in Robinson’s profile suggests that he is a reliable fantasy piece.
Be careful in relying on him. I have Robinson ranked next to the Pittsburgh and Cleveland running backs — risky plays that don’t have a net to catch them.
Kenneth Walker III: I wish I could explain the sudden pivot off of K9 as a feature back for you, but I really can’t. After posting 17+ carries in five straight games, he has a total of 17 attempts over the past two weeks as the team has made a clear point to get Zach Charbonnet more involved.
Also gone is his role in the passing game, as he’s totaled just 11 receiving yards over his past three games. He remained the early-down back in Seattle last week (21-5 snap edge on first and second downs), and that is enough to keep him ahead of Charbonnet in my ranks, but he’s well outside of the RB1 tier – a tier in which he was a part of for the majority of the first two months.
Zach Charbonnet: While the rookie is chipping away at Walker’s role, he’s yet to turn it into much in the way of fantasy value. Charbonnet hasn’t cleared 10 touches in a game this season and has no more than five carries in four straight.
The Seahawks used him in every pressing situation last week (third downs and two-minute situations), and while that’s noteworthy, it’s not overly friendly in terms of fantasy potential. Charbonnet should be rostered, but his impact on the fantasy world right now is lowering the value of Walker more than it is holding any value of his own.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: With at least five catches in four straight games and seven of his past eight, McLaurin’s usage is that of a weekly lineup lock. He’s even added some upside to his profile of late with a 25+ yard catch in three straight.
McLaurin’s value at the WR position is similar to that of Howell at the QB position – safe and without significant risk. This offense isn’t going to give its WR1 a ton of upside (one score in his past seven games), but with a top-five pass-rate-over-expectation mark through nine weeks, the floor is elevated nicely.
Jahan Dotson: Don’t look now, but the pride of Penn State has seen at least eight targets in each of his past three games and has scored in consecutive contests.
The touchdown last week was a 33-yarder that all came in the air, reminding us of the upside he showcased a season ago. The big plays are a large part of what Dotson does, and the fact that he ran a route on 78.8% of Howell dropbacks last week was a big step in the right direction when it comes to him holding consistent Flex appeal.
The Seahawks blitz at the sixth-lowest rate in the league, and that should afford Dotson the time to work down the field. I’m ranking him as a solid WR3 this week, thanks to the recent target surge, understanding that the per-target potential is strong.
DK Metcalf: He injured his ribs earlier in the season and battled through a hip injury last week but was able to haul in just one pass during the blowout at the hands of the Ravens.
Whatever the opposite of “a rising tide lifting all boats” is what is going on in Seattle. The steps backward taken by Smith have impacted the value of his pass catchers in a major way – Metcalf has been held under 70 receiving yards in four straight.
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Metcalf hasn’t turned in a top-20 performance this season, and I’m done with ranking him that way. He sits just outside of that range for me, checking in behind Jakobi Meyers and Courtland Sutton.
Tyler Lockett: The veteran receiver has been an underrated asset for years now, but it seems as if the clock has hit midnight. Boom/bust games are nothing new to Lockett managers, but the “boom” has been missing of late in a significant way.
For the second time this season, Lockett has gone three straight games without a 20-yard reception. That’s a low bar to clear, but the struggles of Smith have prevented Lockett from making the splash plays, and that has relegated him to fantasy benches in most situations.
Locektt’s catch rate has dipped to 66.7% from 71.8% last season and is now in that Gabe Davis zone of chaos. He currently ranks below the other all-or-nothing types – give me Tank Dell, Jahan Dotson, or Davis over Lockett this week. You hate to see it.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie is carving out a nice little niche in this offense, and while I’m not yet ranking him as a Flex option, he’s approaching that tier of receiver.
Last week, JSN matched Metcalf in routes run and posted his third straight top-35 effort. I didn’t think that, after nine weeks, all three of these receivers would be within 20 spots in my WR ranks, but that is where we are!
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: There might not be a better representation of the low-end TEs than Thomas. Despite having just one game north of 51 receiving yards this season, the fact that he has at least six targets in three straight games is appealing to us.
He’s not doing much with those looks, but the idea that he’s at least earning the opportunity to produce puts him ahead of his cohorts in the tight-end position.
Thomas ran a route on 84.6% of Washington dropbacks last weekend, and in an offense that spreads the ball around, that gives him enough target upside to be considered a lead streaming option against the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the league.
Should You Start Brian Robinson or Najee Harris?
I’m not thrilled about playing either of these backs, but with the Packers allowing just 2.3 yards per carry over their past two games, I’ll chase the TD equity of Robinson over Harris.
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The Commanders prefer to pick up yards through the air, but Robinson has proven plenty capable of cashing in short carries, and his growth in the passing game gives him access to a floor that we weren’t sure he’d have this summer.
This could be a Jaylen Warren game in Pittsburgh, and that thought creates floor concerns that result in Harris falling behind Robinson in my Week 10 projections.
Should You Start DK Metcalf or Diontae Johnson?
At this point, how can you not take Johnson? He has seen one-third of the targets in Pittsburgh over the past two games and looks fully healthy. Target earning consistency and health are two things I’m not as confident in when it comes to Metcalf right now and that creates a low floor.
Entering the season, I have Metcalf over Johnson, with the thought being that he would benefit from better QB play – that’s just not the case right now. As long as Smith is struggling to regain his 2022 form, Metcalf carries just as much risk as potential reward.
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