Entering Week 16, the Washington Commanders had zero wins against teams with a winning record as they were 0-4 when facing teams who are .500 or better this season. However, in Week 16, the Commanders delivered their most impressive win of the season, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 36-33.
After their huge Week 16 win, let’s take a look at how the Commanders can feasibly still win the NFC East and what their scenarios look like when it comes to the NFC Wild Card picture.
What is the Washington Commanders Playoff Picture?
The Commanders are now 10-5 and the No. 7 seed in the NFC. They are still in the race for the NFC East, sitting two games behind the Philadelphia Eagles with two games to play. The Commanders’ win over the Eagles was huge, but they have no room for error in the final two weeks if they want a chance to win the division (and they’ll need some help from Philly).
In the NFC Wild Card race, the Commanders are a game behind the Green Bay Packers (11-4). Also in Wild Card contention are the Atlanta Falcons (8-7) and Los Angeles Rams (9-6), who are both currently in first place in their divisions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) are also still in the mix.
What Are the Commanders’ Playoff Scenarios in Week 16?
The Commanders’ job is somewhat simple when it comes to the division. They have to be perfect and win all of their remaining two games. However, that still might not be enough as the Eagles just need to avoid losing one of their remaining games to win the division. That is out of the Commanders’ control, so their focus should be on the NFC Wild Card, and if they end up winning the division, so be it.
The Commanders could have clinched a Wild Card spot this week with the following scenarios, but the Falcons and Rams winning spoiled that possibility.
- WAS wins + ATL loses or ties + SEA loses or ties
- WAS wins + ATL loses or ties + LAR loses or ties
- WAS ties + ATL loses + ARI loses or ties + SEA loses + LAR loses or ties
- WAS ties + ATL loses + ARI loses or ties + SEA ties + LAR loses
The Commanders are in a fairly good position because they control their own destiny and can afford to lose a game and still make the playoffs. If Washington gets to 11 wins, then no one can surpass them.
Only two other teams in the current picture can get to 11 wins (the Rams and Packers).
Without diving into the realm of ties, losing their final two games would be bad news for the Commanders. At that point, their conference record would be stuck at 7-5, which might not be enough if the Falcons or Buccaneers end up on nine or 10 wins with conference records of 7-5 or 8-4.
In two-team tiebreakers, the Commanders lost to the Buccaneers and play the Falcons in Week 17.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)