The Washington Commanders‘ outlook evaluates the fantasy football value of Sam Howell as a Week 16 QB streamer, while the New York Jets‘ fantasy preview helps you properly react to the egg they laid last weekend against the Dolphins.
Washington Commanders at New York Jets
- Spread: Jets -3
- Total: 37.5
- Commanders implied points: 17
- Jets implied points: 20.5
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: Jacoby Brissett took over late last week against the Rams and looked good, but the team made it clear following the loss that Howell was still their guy.
Every quarterback in the league has a stinker. That’s more of a fact than an opinion. Howell had posted six straight top-10 finishes before the mess that was Week 15, so I’m not worried about his ability to produce the goods.
I am, however, worried about a defense that ranks top five in red-zone touchdown prevention and yards per pass attempt. This Howell run has been a good one for QB streamers, but in a tough spot this week and another brutal matchup on New Year’s Eve against the 49ers, his time as a usable fantasy asset has come to an end.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr.: A hamstring resulted in Robinson missing his first game of the season, as the Week 14 bye week wasn’t enough for him to recover from the Week 13 injury.
It may feel like a while ago, but in Weeks 6-11, Robinson returned to starter-level fantasy production in six straight games. His role inside the 10-yard line has been his calling card, but an increase in versatility (15 catches over his past three healthy games) has served as a fantasy stabilizer.
MORE: Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. Start/Sit Week 16
Does his role change upon his return? Labeling him as a bell cow feels overly optimistic, and that stands to make him a risky option in this brutal matchup. If he plays, you’re chasing a touchdown. That could pay dividends (he has eight this season), but a role like that means a low floor, and that is terrifying this time of year.
We will see where his health status lands as we get closer to kickoff, but at the moment, I’m looking for an excuse to bench him in my most important league, and I’d suggest you do the same if you have reasonable depth.
Antonio Gibson: Instead of extending Gibson with Robinson out last week, the Commanders opted to give Chris Rodriguez Jr. 10 carries to Gibson’s four. That’s all I needed to see.
Gibson caught all five of his targets (20 yards), but if what we saw last week was his role ceiling, I’m not interested.
Robinson may miss another game, considering his lack of activity on the practice field over the past few weeks, but even if that’s the case, Gibson is more of a contrarian DFS play than he is someone you need to concern yourself with in season-long formats.
Breece Hall: The talented rookie hasn’t cleared 50 rushing yards since Week 5, and we saw the risk in that profile last week.
After 26 receptions in a four-game stretch, Hall managed just six receiving yards on his two targets against the Dolphins. Normally, I wouldn’t mind an RB with this sort of versatility (think peak Austin Ekeler), but with the limitations of this offense, that versatility doesn’t elevate Hall’s floor as it does for others.
Hall hasn’t been a top-24 RB in three of his past four games and five of his past seven. We saw Israel Abanikanda play 22 of the final 28 snaps last week, a usage that came in garbage time. But could New York look to see what he has as this season comes to a close? I’m not ruling it out.
Hall has RB1 talent but slots in as an RB2 for me despite a plus matchup where the game script doesn’t figure to be prohibitive.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: The big Week 15 performance was good to see, but much of his production came with Brissett under center, including a beautiful 29-yard touchdown that was simply the exploitation of single coverage.
We know McLaurin is talented, but before Brissett unlocking him, he had been held to 50 yards or less receiving in four straight.
This is a tough matchup that scares me from locking in McLaurin. He’s my WR29 and shares a tier with a pair of grizzled veterans in Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham Jr.
Curtis Samuel: For the first time since mid-October, Samuel found the end zone against the Rams. He liked the feel of it so much that he decided to take a second trip.
I don’t think we see another game like that this week, but with three straight top-35 finishes (doubling his season total), Samuel has certainly worked his way onto the Flex radar.
The floor is low, considering that the catch count is far from stable and that he averages just 9.8 yards per catch this season, but Samuels is a viable option for managers who are without a player they consistently Flex.
Jahan Dotson: Love the upside in his skill set, but he’s not for me. Dotson has turned six targets into just 35 yards over his past two games and has yet to finish a week as a top-40 receiver when he doesn’t find paydirt.
Dotson is a name to potentially invest in at a discount next season, but not one that I’m even remotely interested in at this point in this season.
Garrett Wilson: Wilson saw a season-low four targets last week, and it resulted in his fifth finish outside of the top 40 receivers. Of course, there is the other side of that coin that has Wilson finishing four weeks as a top-20 WR.
The Commanders allow 30.2 points per game — the only defense allowing even 27 ppg per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet — so I’m more likely to bet on Wilson’s potential than to get caught up in the downside that naturally comes as a part of this QB committee situation.
Wilson isn’t likely to be the WR1 that you drafted this summer, but I do have confidence in him as a WR2 this week. I rank in the same tier as Tee Higgins and Davante Adams, other top receivers on their team with question marks under center.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: The veteran TE held value in the first half of the season, but we’re well beyond that at this point. Thomas has totaled just 22 yards on eight targets over his past three games and hasn’t scored since October.
The floor is too low to consider, given that the ceiling would not swing your matchup. You can do better when looking to stream the position in this game …
Tyler Conklin: This offense is prohibitive of anything ceiling-related, but Conklin has eight games with at least four catches this season, which is enough if you’ve built a monster roster that just needs a non-zero at the position to round things out.
He’s a situational play, and his mean outcome doesn’t get him inside of my top 15 tight ends this week. However, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a spot for Conklin in meaningful fantasy matchups this week.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Sam Howell?
Howell has been consistent this year, so I’m not writing him off of one disastrous week, but Goff playing indoors gets the nod here. He is coming off his best game of the season, and I like his plethora of options in the short passing game against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Goff holds the edge in both floor and ceiling in this head-to-head matchup, making him my clear play!
Should You Start Jordan Addison or Curtis Samuel?
Addison gets the nod by four spots in my rank, a gap that isn’t nearly as wide as most have for this decision. His breakout in Week 15 was encouraging, though a 79% completion game from Nick Mullens isn’t something I’m banking on repeating.
Samuel scored twice last week to break a two-month drought and has seen his usage gradually trend in the right direction. That said, the floor for a player like Samuel is low and very much in play, given his matchup with the Jets. Addison carries a similar floor, but one that is less likely to be realized in a plus-matchup in a game where I expect points to be put on the board.
Addison is the better Flex play this week, though I’m not labeling either Week 15 standout as a must-start in Week 16.
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