The Washington Commanders fantasy football preview this week puts air in the tires of their pass game, while the New York Giants fantasy outlook is about trying to find value outside of Saquon Barkley.
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Washington Commanders at New York Giants
- Spread: Commanders -2
- Total: 39.5
- Commanders implied points: 20.8
- Giants implied points: 18.8
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: I’ve seen enough — Howell is a legit option for teams streaming the position. He ranks as a top-12 QB for me this week thanks to an elevated floor (18+ fantasy points in four of his past five) and an advantageous matchup.
In terms of missed tackles per game, the Giants are the fifth-worst defense in the league. Why do I mention that? Follow me here.
- 6’1”, 220 pounds
- Completion percentage over 67%
- Sub-eight-yard aDOT
Did I just describe Brock Purdy or Howell? Trick question, both!
As a chain mover, Purdy cruised to 20 fantasy points against these Giants a month ago (25/37 for 310 yards and two touchdowns), something that is very much within the range of outcomes for Howell in this spot.
Add in the fact that this game will likely be more competitive than Purdy’s 18-point win and that Howell is pacing near 300 rushing yards — you’re looking at the answer to your Week 7 QB issues if you’re dealing with injury/bye.
Tyrod Taylor: With Daniel Jones continuing to battle the neck injury, Taylor is in a position to start again. He has some wiggle, and I expect a better showing than last week in Buffalo, but that doesn’t put him near fantasy radars. His impact will be on the playmakers around him if you’re bold enough to go that route, so I figured I’d post the Week 6 target shares:
- Wan’Dale Robinson: 25.8%
- Darren Waller: 22.6%
- Darius Slayton: 19.4%
- Saquon Barkley: 16.1%
- Jalin Hyatt: 12.9%
Taylor was conservative with his throws (6.9 aDOT; for reference, that’s the number for Jared Goff this season), something that points in the direction of chain movers over big-play threats.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson: At the end of the day, your confidence in starting Robinson this week — and moving forward, for that matter — comes down to the threat you feel Antonio Gibson is to take food off his plate. Is Gibson a pesky cat that just nibbles at the crumbs or a German shepherd that will take your entire entree if you’re not careful?
I’m in the camp of the former. The snap split was closer last week (27-20 in favor of Robinson), but with just 16 carries through six weeks, Gibson doesn’t have the profile of a German shepherd. Robinson has caught all eight of his targets this month and saved you last week with a touchdown reception as he molds into a reasonably versatile back.
I have B-Rob ranked as a top-15 play this week and am comfortable banking on him as a fine RB2 for the remainder of the season.
Antonio Gibson: “Pesky Cat” Gibson ran a route on 60% of his snaps last week and managed to turn his one target into a touchdown. Good for him. His current role isn’t fantasy-friendly in the least, and I don’t see a path, barring injury, for that to change any time soon.
It’s hard to field a competitive roster in Week 7, and I have no issue if you want to cut ties with Gibson for a one-week rental.
Saquon Barkley: It was a vintage Barkley performance last Sunday night in his return from an ankle sprain that cost him nearly a month (59-19 snap edge over Matt Breida). His first 18 carries gained just 32 yards (11 below what was blocked for him, per the Week 7 Cheat Sheet), and he looked rusty.
But if you were late in coming back from your end-of-quarter-three bathroom trip, you missed the upside you were hoping for. Barkley followed a 19-yard gain with a 34-yarder on the very next snap, and all was again right with the world.
MORE: What To Do With Saquon Barkley Moving Forward?
I liked that one big gain came with Taylor under center and the other in shotgun — it’s a minor detail, but those types of running plays require different sorts of agility, and the fact that Barkley (eventually) was able to flash that lands him back inside my top 10 this week.
I’m expecting a similar performance this week as last week’s and hoping for some touchdown luck against the 10th-best red zone unit in the league. Washington’s 26th-ranked run defense, in terms of yards per carry, should be friendly enough for Barkley to offer a reasonable floor at the very least.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: The first few sets of plays are scripted, and with McLaurin being targeted on six of Howell’s first 13 throws (four catches for 45 yards), Week 6 was looking like the breakout performance we were all hoping for.
It wasn’t.
Commanders QB Sam Howell DIME to WR Terry Mclaurin on the run 🎯
pic.twitter.com/2TvaSy8Dih— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 15, 2023
He caught just two passes the rest of the game, and while 11.1 fantasy points isn’t a poor effort by any means, it wasn’t the explosive effort we seemed destined for.
Given how Howell plays, McLaurin’s returning value on your summer investment is going to be a stretch. That said, the WR1 has scored or reached 100 yards in five straight games against the Giants, leaving the door open for this to be the standout showing that we’ve been waiting for.
Curtis Samuel: With a score in three straight games and at least four catches in four of six contests, Samuel is making a push to enter my top 30 at the position for the first time this season.
The veteran has a sub-seven-yard aDOT in his 2+ seasons, a role that is particularly valuable against a Giants defense that has the second-lowest opponent aDOT this season. There’s not much of a path to a top-15 week for Samuel, but his floor is what makes him plenty worthy of Flex consideration in a tough week.
Jahan Dotson: The pride of Penn State remains without a game north of 40 yards this season, and his confidence can’t be high after dropping what could have been a 52-yard touchdown last week on his only target against the Falcons.
Dynasty managers should be exploring the asking price for Dotson while redraft managers holding out hope need to hit the waiver wire.
Will he eventually make a big play? I think so, and I hope you land on him in DFS when it happens. But with teams preferring to dink-and-dunk against the Giants, I don’t have Week 7 circled as the Dotson breakout spot.
Wan’Dale Robinson: We talked about him on the waiver podcast on Monday’s show as a band-aid type of player. It’s unlikely that you’ll ever win your week because Robinson went bonkers, but his strong floor in this underwhelming offense is enough to make him appealing in the right situation.
For PPR managers, that right situation could very well be this week with all of the bye weeks and the need for stable production. Last week, Robinson was targeted on 25% of his routes, a significant earning edge over Darius Slayton (14.6%) and Jalin Hyatt (11.4%) in the deep passing game.
Isaiah Hodgins was a hot name this summer as the favorite to win the WR1 role in New York, but he played just 22.1% of the snaps last week and isn’t close to being a factor.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: I remain optimistic that a healthy Thomas is a streamable Thomas, even after he left all of us wondering what happened last week with a one-target, two-yard performance in Atlanta.
He’s ranked outside of my top 12 at the position this week due to being held under four targets in three of his past four games, but his path for a rebound performance is there, given how Howell distributes the ball.
Darren Waller: Week 6 was the fourth time in a month that Waller saw at least seven targets, and at the TE position, that’s good enough. He continues to do very little with them (68.3% catch rate, 10.1 yards per catch, and zero touchdowns), but he’s a part of this offense, and the same cannot be said for the tight ends on your waiver wire.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
It’s time to adjust expectations. No, Waller wasn’t the steal in the middle rounds this summer that you thought, but he remains a tier ahead of the streamer bucket, and that puts you ahead of more than a few of your league mates at the position.
Should You Start Curtis Samuel or Drake London?
I have London two spots higher this week and it’s based on the matchup. We just saw the Lions pick apart the Buccaneers secondary, and if Atlanta is going to have success through the air, London is a good bet to return top-24 value for a third straight week.
Samuel isn’t a bad play and if you need a floor option, he’s my pick. But in a vacuum, when considering the best and worst case, Atlanta’s top receiver gets the nod.
Should You Start Darren Waller or Luke Musgrave?
I never thought I’d have these two ranked back-to-back in the middle of October, but here we are. Waller gets the slight bump because I trust his volume (7+ targets in four of his past five) as the top option in this offense over that of Musgrave, who could be the fourth most dangerous pass catcher in Green Bay with that nucleus getting healthy.