The Washington Commanders fantasy preview centers around their surprisingly productive pass game, while the New England Patriots fantasy outlook wonders aloud about the fantasy football value of Rhamondre Stevenson.
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -3.5
- Total: 41
- Commanders implied points: 18.8
- Patriots implied points: 22.3
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: The argument could be made that no player has been more consistently productive while staying under the radar than Howell this season. All he has done is rack up six top-15 finishes, a run that includes three top-10 performances over his past four games.
Nobody is going to label Howell as a star, but I don’t see anything in his profile that suggests this high-floor production can’t be sustained. He has just enough rushing upside for it to matter, and he excels at taking what the defense gives him (four different players saw at least seven targets last week, and five caught at least five passes).
You don’t go broke making a profit, and Howell has been giving you that all season long.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson: If you told me in August that Robinson would have six scores through eight weeks with an extended role in the passing game that includes an 81.3% catch rate, I’d assume that rosters with him would be thriving and he’d be in the conversation for the best value pick of the summer.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
I would have been wrong. He hasn’t had a finish better than RB15 since Week 2, a run that includes four finishes as RB24 or worse. The problem? Volume. Despite an unquestioned lead role, B-Rob has no more than 10 carries in four straight. With Howell playing at the level he is, I’m not sure we see that change any time soon.
Robinson has yet to reach double figures in fantasy points in a week without a score, a reliance on touchdowns that is terrifying. In what could be one of the more boring games of the week, I have Robinson ranked as an average Flex play alongside the Steelers and Rams backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson: I know Halloween was on Tuesday, but if Stevenson dressed up as Robinson – would anyone know the difference? Last four games:
- Stevenson: 37 carries, 13 catches, 4.6 yards per touch
- Robinson: 34 carries, eight catches, 4.8 yards per touch
Both of these offenses rank outside of the top 20 in yards per play and provide their lead back with limited scoring chances. If this was a week with more RB health and/or fewer byes, neither Stevenson nor Robinson would be ranked as a starter for me.
Sadly, that’s not the world we live in. Stevenson owns a little more upside as a pass catcher than Robinson, and that gives him the slight edge, but both are low-end RB2s that inspire very little confidence.
Ezekiel Elliott: With under 40 rushing yards in five straight games and just one catch total over his past three, “Zeke” doesn’t need to be rostered. What’s the point?
There are certain backup RBs that offer role upside by way of a single injury. Zach Charbonnet in Seattle would be an easy RB2 if Kenneth Walker got hurt. You could say the same thing for Tyler Allgeier in Atlanta or even Tyjae Spears in Tennessee.
Elliott is not that. Move on. At this point in the season, there are better ways to use a roster spot.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: Could it be? Could McLaurin be getting the WR1 usage that we spent all of September clamoring for?
- Weeks 1-5: 31 targets
- Weeks 6-8: 32 targets
The catch rate isn’t there at the moment (53.1% during the past three weeks), but I’ll take my chances in that regressing to his career average of 63.1%. His fantasy finish position has improved in each of the past three weeks (45-26-20-15), and that’s about where I expect him to be most weeks: a viable WR2 that you feel good about.
The lack of scoring equity will prevent him from moving too high up in my ranks, but his floor is trending in a strong direction. That should be plenty comforting, given the uneasy start to this season for McLaurin managers.
Jahan Dotson: Was his 108-yard performance last week the start of something or simply a flash in the pan?
Let’s talk this out.
Over the past two weeks, he has seen 18 targets, just one fewer than he saw in total over the previous four weeks. The increase in volume is one thing, but the fact that it has come with a 14.2% spike in aDOT is what has me interested. Dotson was a big-play threat at Penn State and as a rookie last season (14.9 yards per catch), but they seemed to try to change his role this year.
MORE: Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Rankings
If the target and depth of target are both moving in the right direction, we could be looking at a late-season peak that makes a major difference in the fantasy playoffs.
I will say that how Howell plays is worrisome. He’s proven more than willing to spread the ball around, so if we think the recent McLaurin usage spike is here to stay, Dotson’s weekly consistency could be a major issue.
He ran a route on 89.1% of dropbacks last week, per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet, putting him squarely in the 2022 Gabe Davis tier of fantasy options. I was willing to bet on Davis last season, trusting that a talented player with no shortage of paying time would pay off — I’m getting there with Dotson. He’s an average WR3 for me this week, who I’m cautiously starting if I’m in a pinch.
Curtis Samuel: The three-game TD streak in Weeks 4-6 was cute, but that’s in the rearview mirror at this point. I think it’s safe to move on. Outside of that run, Samuel has just one top-50 finish this season and continues to battle a lingering toe/foot injury.
The Commanders have stopped handing him the rock (0 rush yards over the past month), sapping him of the versatility that made him appealing in the first place. I’d rather try to pin the tail on the WR2 in Dallas or take any of the Packer receivers over Samuel, both this week and moving forward.
Kendrick Bourne: Just a reminder that Bourne tore his ACL last week and will miss the remainder of the season. In most situations, when a star receiver goes down, there is an upside add that becomes a priority.
This isn’t most situations. This isn’t Jordan Addison stepping in for Justin Jefferson or Joshua Palmer moving into the Mike Williams role. This is a receiver room that lacks impactful talent, and losing Bourne doesn’t change that.
You don’t need to worry about rostering a Patriots receiver in most formats.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: The primary knock on Thomas over the past few seasons has been his lack of health – that is a very viable concern. But, in this role as a TE streamer, fantasy managers are only concerned about the short-term.
Thomas has a touchdown or 6+ targets in five of seven games this season (he did both in Week 8), and as long as he is getting that usage, he deserves to be thought of as a top-12 tight end. If it dries up or an injury occurs, you’re free to move on. It’s a great risk/reward proposition.
The Patriots allowed breakout TE weeks to Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer over the past three weeks, and I’d expect another steady performance from Thomas in this spot.
Should You Start Alexander Mattison or Rhamondre Stevenson?
I have these two ranked back-to-back this week, both checking in as low-end RBs with significant risk involved. That said, Mattison’s usage last week suggested that he is the clear top back in this offense, and that’s more than we can say for Stevenson, with Ezekiel Elliott continuing to cut into his work.
Both of these offenses offer little stability, and that has me doubting that either one of these two reaches the end zone. In a situation like that, I side with the volume, and Mattison has a leg up in that regard.
Should You Start Darrell Henderson or Brian Robinson?
I think both of these backs have a reasonable role, but one of their teams is interested in running the ball, while the other insists on airing it early and often.
Robinson doesn’t have more than 10 carries in four straight games, making him a touchdown-dependant option on an offense that doesn’t consistently get inside the 10-yard line. Not ideal.
I give Henderson the slight edge in per-touch production and have him projected for more attempts, making him a low-end RB2 for me this week and the answer in this spot.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!