The Washington Commanders’ fantasy outlook centers around Sam Howell’s fantasy football value coming out of the bye, while the Los Angeles Rams‘ fantasy preview takes a look at Matthew Stafford’s three-week run of greatness.
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -7
- Total: 49
- Commanders implied points: 21
- Rams implied points: 28
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: The bye came at a good time for Howell, as he has been held without a TD toss in consecutive games (67 attempts). His ability to produce for his fantasy managers, however, has remained thanks to four rushing scores in his past three games.
One way or another, he seems to produce. It’s rarely pretty, but it’s consistent. The Ravens took to the air last week against these Rams (43 attempts), allowing me to feel comfortable in projecting another 40+ dropbacks for Howell.
The ceiling isn’t that of a top-five signal-caller, but I would be shocked if he fell outside the top 15. That makes him a fine streamer if you’re in such a spot this week. I prefer Howell to Matthew Stafford (who could be on your wire) and to Kyler Murray this week.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford was back to targeting his top two playmakers at a high rate (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua accounted for 56.5% of his completions), and it paid off in spades. That’s now three straight games in which the veteran has thrown at least three TD passes — great form to take into any matchup.
But this isn’t “any matchup.”
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This is a matchup with a gutted Commanders defense that has allowed opponents to complete 69.2% of their passes for 1,229 yards and 11 TDs (zero interceptions) during their four-game losing streak. If fantasy is a game of matchups and trends, Stafford is the clear-cut streamer of the week!
Running Backs
Brian Robinson: We all knew that the bottom could fall out for the Robinson production path, given how reliant he was on scoring, and we saw that in the two games prior to the Week 14 bye (not a top 30 RB in either of those games.)
Robinson’s unquestioned role as the lead back in an offense that should be as fresh as any in the spot puts him on my radar. With him clearly holding the goal-line role against a defense that has missed the fourth-most tackles, Robinson moves up from a Flex play to a low-end RB2 that you can trust.
Antonio Gibson: With at least three catches in five straight games, Gibson is slowly assuming the role that we thought he’d hold from the jump. If you want to roster him in PPR leagues, I’m fine with it, but without much in the way of touch or scoring upside, he’s not a player I’m considering starting this week.
Kyren Williams: This offense has scored 104 points in the three games since Williams returned from injury, and he’s played a big role in that success.
- Week 12 at Cardinals: 22 touches
- Week 13 vs. Browns: 24 touches
- Week 14 at Ravens: 28 touches
Williams’ role is right up there with San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, and the Rams have shown no hesitation in going back to their guy in a major way. I’m betting on Stafford to put this offense in a good spot, and if that comes through, Williams is set to return RB1 value once again.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: The top receiver in an offense that operates like Washington’s should be a top-15 option, but that’s not the case here.
Heading into the bye, McLaurin was shut out by the Miami Dolphins. In fact, per the Week 15 Cheat Sheet, his 29 targets over his past four games have netted just 126 yards. With just two scores on his 2023 resume, we aren’t looking at a must-start option.
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Prior to the dud against the Dolphins, McLaurin’s volume was ticking up, and if that returns, I’ll feel better about flexing him in a neutral matchup. I have him penciled in as a strong Flex play that ranks in the same range as Dallas Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks and Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers.
Jahan Dotson: We know that Dotson has big-play potential – even if we’ve seen very little of it this season. The Rams boasting the third-highest opponent aDOT is the type of stat I look for when considering a player like this in DFS. Dotson doesn’t need to be on your redraft radar, but he’s on my mind as I build my Week 15 DFS lineups.
Curtis Samuel: Heading into the bye, Samuel posted his top two yardage performances of the season, but I’m not buying it.
Samuel is a low aDOT weapon, and that type of player requires volume to be consistent. That’s not part of what he brings to the table – one five-plus catch game since Week 5. A pair of big plays have helped him produce lately, but counting on that from a player like this is beyond dangerous.
Cooper Kupp: Is he back? Kupp has scored in consecutive games and caught eight balls for 115 yards against one of the best defenses in the league last week.
I’m not willing to say the “2021” version is here, but the “WR2 that you can count on” version is here, and that’ll work. With Stafford playing at a high level and a matchup against the worst pass defense on a per-pass basis, benching Kupp is getting too cute.
Puka Nacua: While I’m skeptical about labeling either Rams receiver as a WR1, I have no problem in labeling both as strong starts in all formats.
With Kupp playing well last week, Nacua was still able to carve out eight targets and total 84 yards. His aDOT is 4.5% higher since Kupp’s season debut, and that holds some value in a game that features two of the top three defenses in terms of opponent aDOT.
Is this a sneaky shootout spot? I’m betting the over on the point total and betting by way of my rankings on a good amount of offense in this game.
Other Rams WRs: Demarcus Robinson caught three of 10 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore last week. Robinson, who had 10 targets all season prior to this game, has scored in consecutive games and saw his usage spike as a result of the WR Tutu Atwell injury.
It was a nice game, but I’m not banking on this passing game consistently having a third option — be it Atwell, Robinson, or Tyler Higbee.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: Thomas is now three weeks (two games) removed from a five-game streak of showcasing a nice PPR floor (four or more catches in each of those games). He is not someone you need to count on, but could he return value?
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It’s possible given the pass rate of this offense, but the ceiling is so capped (one game of 60+ yards) that the reward isn’t worth the risk. Thomas ranks outside of my top 20 for the week — there are more than a handful of options sitting on your waiver wire who I’d rather roll the dice on.
Should You Start Brian Robinson or James Conner?
Both of these backs have empty calorie potential when it comes to their significant volume, so I lean toward the more rested back in the better matchup.
Robinson gets a Rams defense that can be vulnerable at times, while Conner has to deal with a mobile quarterback and a matchup against arguably the best defense in the league. Neither of these RBs is “safe,” though I do think Robinson offers the higher ceiling in terms of both quality and quantity in the touch department.
Should You Start Matthew Stafford or Kyler Murray?
Stafford is my favorite stream of the week and I think his recent run of production continues for at least one more week. He hasn’t been shy about featuring his top two weapons of late, and they are both better than anything Murray has to work with in Arizona.
Murray’s mobility creates a ceiling for him that simply isn’t there for Stafford, but I’m comfortable betting against him reaching that potential in this specific matchup.
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