While the Washington Commanders haven’t won a playoff game since 2005, hope springs eternal in the nation’s capital following the departure of Daniel Snyder and the emergence of new owner Josh Harris.
New faces like Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy also add a sense of allure to the Commanders’ upcoming campaign, but will they be enough for head coach Ron Rivera to save his job, especially in one of the NFL’s most challenging divisions?
Can the Commanders improve after finishing with an 8-8-1 record last season? In this betting preview, we break down Washington’s betting lines, give out a best bet, and more.
Take advantage of one of these sportsbook offers below if you’re getting into the market of Commanders futures!
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Washington Commanders Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +6500
Want to make a bet on this year’s Super Bowl winner? Click on the widget below!
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-futures/topic:super-bowl-winner/variant:1/sportsbook:draftkings?id=4606eedb-d2c6-471d-9ebe-73862f65a723″]NFC Odds: +4000
NFC East Odds: +1600
Win Total: 6.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +300/-370
Washington Commanders Offense
Although the Commanders signed veteran Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal in the offseason, the club had labeled Howell as their projected QB1 as soon as the 2022 campaign concluded. Rivera stuck to his word, officially announcing Howell as Washington’s starting quarterback on Aug. 18.
Howell started the Commanders’ regular-season finale, completing 11 of 19 attempts for 169 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while adding 35 yards on the ground in a 26-6 win over the Cowboys. He probably should have been selected earlier than the fifth round in the 2022 NFL Draft, but he’ll have to buck league historical trends to succeed as a Day 3 QB.
Washington’s skill-position group hasn’t changed. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel should dominate targets out of 11 personnel. Running back Brian Robinson Jr., who said he never felt fully healthy last season after recovering from gunshot wounds, could improve on his 797 rushing yards while Antonio Gibson takes on a third-down role.
The Commanders’ offensive line is still concerning, even though the club added multiple new starters over the offseason. Nick Gates will take over at center while Andrew Wylie plays right tackle. Sam Cosmi is moving from tackle to guard, while Saadhiq Charles is something of an unknown at RG.
Washington Commanders Defense
The Commanders’ defense was impressive in 2022 and is probably underrated coming into 2023. Washington finished fifth in defensive EPA, sixth in points allowed per drive, and ninth in defensive DVOA — all while largely playing without former No. 2 overall pick Chase Young, who made just three appearances.
Young is now fully healthy and will rejoin a dominant defensive line that already includes tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne and fellow edge rusher Montez Sweat. The Commanders ranked 10th in pressure rate and 12th in sacks a year ago and could improve on both figures in 2023.
Meanwhile, Washington used its first two picks on defensive backs Emmanuel Forbes and Jartavius Martin, the former of whom figures to start immediately alongside Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste.
One Betting Trend To Know
The Commanders have covered just 35.7% of games when getting more than three points over the past two seasons, the sixth-worst rate in the league, per Inside Edge.
Best Bet for the Commanders in 2023
Robinson: McLaurin hasn’t been very fortunate in terms of who’s been throwing him the ball throughout his four-year NFL career.
Since entering the league in 2019, McLaurin’s quarterbacks have included Case Keenum, the late Dwayne Haskins, a recovering Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, and Carson Wentz. And yet, he’s still managed at least 900 yards in every season of his career and has topped 1,000 yards in each of the last three years.
Sam Howell ➡️ Scary Terry
How good can these two be together in 2023? 👀#Commanders
pic.twitter.com/iNGhCzl3qd— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 18, 2023
This is a bet on McLaurin, but it’s also a bet on Howell, who might offer an improvement on all of McLaurin’s previous signal-callers. That’s why I’m comfortable taking the over on McLaurin’s 900.5-yard receiving total at (-130).
I’m also relying on the Commanders running more plays under Bieniemy than they did under former offensive coordinator Scott Turner. Washington ranked 31st in situation-neutral pace in 2022, while Bieniemy’s Chiefs finished third. A fast pace means more plays, leading to more opportunities for McLaurin.
Like Robinson’s best bet for the Commanders this season? Place your wager on the widget below.
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