As the Philadelphia Eagles gear up to host the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round of the 2024-25 NFL playoffs, which team would benefit more from the snowy conditions? There is a 75% chance of snow, and statistically, outdoor games with poor weather don’t favor quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
Can Matthew Stafford Lift the Rams in the Snow?
Stafford holds a 1-8 record in games where there is rain/snow, recording 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 76.0 passer rating. Throwing conditions might not be ideal for the Rams in this matchup, forcing Los Angeles to lean on the rushing attack.
Both teams may focus on the run, but which team can control the line of scrimmage? The Eagles finished second in the NFL in rushing, with 178.7 rushing yards per game. The Rams finished 24th, with 103.1 rushing yards per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles finished ninth in run defense, allowing 104.3 rushing yards per game. The Rams finished 21st, allowing 128.7 rushing yards per game.
Matthew Stafford outdoors in the rain/snow: 1-8 record, 54.6 completion percentage, 14 TDs, 11 INTs. 76.0 passer rating.
75% chance of snow on Sunday in Philadelphia.
— Tucker Bagley (@TBagleySports) January 16, 2025
During Wild Card Weekend, the best way to describe Stafford’s performance is to call it a veteran outing. Stafford was just solid, avoiding mistakes and making the plays he needed to. He didn’t throw any interceptions but finished with just 0.1 expected points added (EPA) per dropback and a 25% third-down conversion rate. Can he repeat that performance in the Divisional Round?
Stafford’s experience will be key if the Rams are to continue advancing through the playoffs. The Eagles were the second-best defense in the NFL, according to PFN’s Defense+ metric, but he handled everything that the third-best defense had to throw at him with relative comfort in the Wild Card Round.
Stafford won’t be phased going into Lincoln Financial Field and should be able to handle any conditions, having played the early part of his career in the NFC North.
Among the 12 starting quarterbacks, Stafford was sixth in overall EPA/DB, clean pocket performance (0.21 EPA/DB), and when pressured (-0.15). He was then seventh in net yards per pass attempt (7.5) despite only getting 4.8 yards after the catch per completion (10th). The veteran completed 70.4% of his passes and operated Sean McVay’s offense with the right amount of precision required.
According to PFN’s QB+ metric, Stafford finished the regular season with a 71.9 rating (grade: C) and ranked 22nd in the league among starting quarterbacks. Stafford finished the regular season with his second-worst full-season QB+ since at least 2019, as far back as the data dates.
Both of those bottom two have come in the last three years, raising question marks about whether his career is now trailing off to a point where he might be done. However, before that, the Rams have at least one more playoff game.
Stafford’s numbers have been a mix across the board. He finished with a 0.07 EPA/DB but excelled from a clean pocket (0.31 EPA/DB; seventh) and struggled when pressured (-0.46 EPA/DB; 30th). He was also excellent in the fourth quarter when there was just one score separating teams (0.29 EPA/DB; sixth) but struggled on third downs (30.8% conversion rate, 35th).
The Eagles have been practicing and playing games in the cold for two months. The Rams have no real way of preparing for the cold while in L.A. They have only played in one cold-weather game this season, a Week 16 win over the New York Jets. The Rams trailed the Jets in the fourth quarter, and yet they ran it 28 times (not including kneel-downs) versus 19 pass attempts. Stafford was 14-of-19 for 110 yards, one TD, and one INT.
With inconsistent play in poor conditions, the snowy weather seems to give a massive advantage to the Eagles in the Divisional Round.
Rams vs. Eagles Game Preview
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
- Time: 3 PM ET
- Channel – NBC
The winner of this game will play the winner of the other NFC Divisional round game between the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders. Whichever team holds the better regular season record will play host to the Conference Championship.
The Eagles started September off with some hiccups, going into their week 5 bye with a 2-2 record. However, they reeled off a 10-game winning streak on the other end, securing the NFC East division title with weeks to spare.
Since 2000, the average Super Bowl participant allowed a first down on 37.4% of third downs and a touchdown on 52.3% of red-zone trips during the regular season. The Eagles and Lions are the only two remaining NFC teams meeting both these benchmarks.
Philadelphia’s defense has been a consistent strength this season, with an average Defense+ grade of 79.9. The Eagles are an undefeated 14-0 when their Defense+ grade reaches 75 or higher, including an 81.8 mark in last week’s win over the Packers.
The Eagles’ running game has also taken a significant leap forward this year, led by Saquon Barkley. Philadelphia’s running backs are averaging 17.5% more yards per carry after first contact, compared to last season.
The Rams have played four games against playoff teams since their Week 6 bye — they’ve scored an average of 30.3 points in those games.
But on the darker side, the Rams had a -1.12 average point differential during the regular season. In the 21st century, the 2011 Giants are the only team to advance to championship weekend after posting a negative point differential during the regular season.
However, a close game won’t scare the Rams. They had 15 games this season decided by 10 or fewer points, the most in the league. This holds the same for the Eagles, who hold a 7-1 record in clutch games in 2024.
Based on 10,000 simulations run by the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Eagles have a 63.2% win probability heading into the game.
