As the Philadelphia Eagles gear up to host the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round of the 2024-25 NFL playoffs, which team would benefit more from the snowy conditions? There is a 75% chance of snow, and statistically, outdoor games with poor weather don’t favor quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
Can Matthew Stafford Lift the Rams in the Snow?
Stafford holds a 1-8 record in games where there is rain/snow, recording 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 76.0 passer rating. Throwing conditions might not be ideal for the Rams in this matchup, forcing Los Angeles to lean on the rushing attack.
Both teams may focus on the run, but which team can control the line of scrimmage? The Eagles finished second in the NFL in rushing, with 178.7 rushing yards per game. The Rams finished 24th, with 103.1 rushing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles finished ninth in run defense, allowing 104.3 rushing yards per game. The Rams finished 21st, allowing 128.7 rushing yards per game.
Matthew Stafford outdoors in the rain/snow: 1-8 record, 54.6 completion percentage, 14 TDs, 11 INTs. 76.0 passer rating.
75% chance of snow on Sunday in Philadelphia.
— Tucker Bagley (@TBagleySports) January 16, 2025
During Wild Card Weekend, the best way to describe Stafford’s performance is to call it a veteran outing. Stafford was just solid, avoiding mistakes and making the plays he needed to. He didn’t throw any interceptions but finished with just 0.1 expected points added (EPA) per dropback and a 25% third-down conversion rate. Can he repeat that performance in the Divisional Round?
Stafford’s experience will be key if the Rams are to continue advancing through the playoffs. The Eagles were the second-best defense in the NFL, according to PFN’s Defense+ metric, but he handled everything that the third-best defense had to throw at him with relative comfort in the Wild Card Round.
Stafford won’t be phased going into Lincoln Financial Field and should be able to handle any conditions, having played the early part of his career in the NFC North.
Among the 12 starting quarterbacks, Stafford was sixth in overall EPA/DB, clean pocket performance (0.21 EPA/DB), and when pressured (-0.15). He was then seventh in net yards per pass attempt (7.5) despite only getting 4.8 yards after the catch per completion (10th). The veteran completed 70.4% of his passes and operated Sean McVay’s offense with the right amount of precision required.
According to PFN’s QB+ metric, Stafford finished the regular season with a 71.9 rating (grade: C) and ranked 22nd in the league among starting quarterbacks. Stafford finished the regular season with his second-worst full-season QB+ since at least 2019, as far back as the data dates.
Both of those bottom two have come in the last three years, raising question marks about whether his career is now trailing off to a point where he might be done. However, before that, the Rams have at least one more playoff game.
Stafford’s numbers have been a mix across the board. He finished with a 0.07 EPA/DB but excelled from a clean pocket (0.31 EPA/DB; seventh) and struggled when pressured (-0.46 EPA/DB; 30th). He was also excellent in the fourth quarter when there was just one score separating teams (0.29 EPA/DB; sixth) but struggled on third downs (30.8% conversion rate, 35th).
The Eagles have been practicing and playing games in the cold for two months. The Rams have no real way of preparing for the cold while in L.A. They have only played in one cold-weather game this season, a Week 16 win over the New York Jets. The Rams trailed the Jets in the fourth quarter, and yet they ran it 28 times (not including kneel-downs) versus 19 pass attempts. Stafford was 14-of-19 for 110 yards, one TD, and one INT.
With inconsistent play in poor conditions, the snowy weather seems to give a massive advantage to the Eagles in the Divisional Round.
