If you’re making a Vikings vs. Packers DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Vikings vs. Packers DFS lineup
Today we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Vikings DFS considerations
Like several other teams, the Vikings don’t have a plethora of consistent options. But their exceptional focal points are all weekly potential difference-makers. There’s been buzz this preseason that the team will operate more aggressively on offense. After a more run-friendly approach in 2019 and 2020, they were forced to pass more last year while yielding the ninth-most points. That trend shift should continue with or without an improved defense, thanks to a high-ceiling receiving corps.
Yes, high-ceiling. Whether they execute is another question. Justin Jefferson is money in the bank. Does the 32-year-old Adam Thielen still have enough juice to be a strong No. 2 receiver at an age when most wideouts are in the midst of a precipitous decline? Irv Smith is a wild card — perhaps the best TE among those who didn’t play last year. Can he be a markedly better version of Tyler Conklin?
And the backfield remains led firmly by Dalvin Cook, although Alexander Mattison is once again one of the NFL’s top backups. He deserves a starting job and will probably get one in 2023. For now, we can’t trust him to be used as a 1B option, at least not yet. Cook is still one of the best in the game and is nearly game-script-proof.
Packers DFS considerations
Like his friend in Kansas City, Aaron Rodgers will be without a true No. 1 WR for the first time in his career. Green Bay has been top 15 in points scored in 14 of the last 15 seasons. Can Allen Lazard or anyone else set themselves apart?
For now, we might assume this will be a spread-it-around pass-catching corps until/unless Rodgers settles on one or two favorites. If they can continue to run up the score without overly relying on a lead WR, this could be a very tough group to bet on all season.
The safer plays are in the backfield. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are both three-down-caliber RBs in their prime. Only two teams gave up more yards per carry (4.7) than the Vikings last year. We should expect the Packers to run the ball early and often. Jones remains the lead guy until further notice. Dillon earned two more looks than Jones inside the opposing 10-yard line in 2021. Jones has the higher floor and ceiling. But based on pricing, both have comparable value.
Recommended DFS lineup
If you didn’t see Romeo Doubs this preseason, you missed a transformational summer for a rookie who wasn’t initially expected to make much noise until at least 2023. Instead, he could be a meaningful part of the Packers’ game plan as soon as Week 1. Starting him ($4,800 normally, $7,200 as Captain) in the Captain slot is risky, and it’s also necessary in order to maximize upside elsewhere. And if Doubs breaks through, this lineup could dominate.
The other Packers I’d suggest starting are Aaron Jones ($9,200) and AJ Dillon ($6,600). Dillon seems much too affordable, given the possibility of splitting work with the older Jones. Early Last season, I went out on a limb, justifying why Dillon was a good bet to split work with Jones by the end of the year. This season, he won’t surprise anyone.
For the Vikings, we can afford to go big with Justin Jefferson ($11,200) and Dalvin Cook ($10,800) in the belief that Minnesota will focus heavily on its two top playmakers. For the final spot, I’d suggest Irv Smith ($4,600), who reportedly is healthy after missing all last season. Despite a low floor, the price is right for a talented TE on the rise.