The Detroit Lions have been one of the most dominant and balanced teams of the 2024 NFL season. Head coach Dan Campbell is among the league’s best, and both coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn will be well sought-after in the coaching market. It really is a shame that they couldn’t turn the injury sliders off for this season, but alas, there is still hope with their juggernaut offense to deliver them to the promised land.
The Minnesota Vikings were one of the most overlooked teams coming into this season after rookie J.J McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury before the season had even started. Sam Darnold, Kevin O’Connell, and Brian Flores have done a tremendous job to put this team in position for a playoff run.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions (-155); Vikings (+130) - Over/Under
56.5 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m ET - Location
Ford Field, Detroit
Vikings vs. Lions Preview and Prediction
Make no mistake, the Vikings of 2024 are not the Vikings of 2022. According to TruMedia, the 2022 Vikings were 13-0 in one-score games and heavily regressed the next season after not being able to retain such incredible luck. The Vikings this season have a 122-point differential, good for sixth-best in the league despite their 9-1 record in close games.
The Vikings this season rank 13th in offensive EPA (expected points added), 11th in success rate, first in explosive pass rate, and 16th in explosive rush rate. With all his faults, Darnold has played really well in this offense, ranking 12th in PFN’s QB+ metric. Outside of the obvious (the wide receivers), the play calling is what sticks out the most to me.
The Vikings jump up to fifth in EPA when looking at scripted plays, showcasing O’Connell’s ability to scheme up easy looks for Darnold before defenses can adjust. Unfortunately, the offensive line hasn’t been up to par this season, ranking 25th in quick pressure rate allowed, which adjusts for Darnold’s time to throw.
There isn’t a clear weakness in Minnesota’s offense as they rank in the top 10 in both EPA under pressure and when blitzed. A couple of noteworthy observations, however, are that they rank 21st in EPA in the red zone and 20th in likely rush situations. This lends itself to the idea that “bend but don’t break” defenses can best compete against the Vikings’ explosive passing offense.
These are defenses with low success rates but higher rankings in the red zone and in preventing explosives. While Detroit’s defense ranks fifth in EPA in the red zone this season, they dropped to 23rd since Week 11. I use Week 11 as the final nail in the coffin because that’s when Alex Anzalone got injured and their play started to drop as they succumbed to more injuries.
Looking even further, you see that Detroit’s defense hasn’t been good (regardless of injuries) in preventing passing explosives, ranking 30th while giving up an average of 3.7 20+ passing yard plays per game. In the Week 7 matchup between these two teams, the Vikings had five plays over 20 yards and one over 50. Both of these numbers would put them first in the NFL if averaged on the season.
The Lions still won that game 31-29, though. Even the vaunted Minnesota defense is no match for this masterclass of an offense. The Lions rank third in EPA per play and success rate this season. The offensive line is dominant in the run game, ranking 10th in yards per carry before contact. Even without David Montgomery, they still have one-half of the Sonic/Knuckles duo in Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs ranks 12th in yards per rush after contact and fifth in yards per rush overall. They rank sixth in EPA in likely pass situations, first in likely rush situations, third in late-down situations, fourth in the red zone, fourth when leading, and seventh when trailing. It doesn’t matter the split, the Lions offense is very likely to come out in the top 10 or even five.
The Lions do struggle slightly more under pressure, ranking 12th in EPA in such situations. Detroit’s offensive line does about average in preventing pressure, ranking 18th in quick pressure rate allowed. The scheme does an even better job as Detroit’s time to throw is 2.72 seconds, which is good for ninth-fastest in the league. Because of this, Detroit’s overall pressure rate allowed ranks 10th in the NFL.
It’s important to note that the Lions rank sixth in EPA when blitzed, so you are better off getting pressure in your base defense. Minnesota’s defense does a great job of getting pressure, ranking sixth in quick pressure rate and 12th in pressure rate. They also blitz on 38% of dropbacks, which is the most in the NFL.
They rank 14th in pressure rate with three pass rushers, pressuring the quarterback on 28.1% of dropbacks. With four, they jump to third at 36.7%. They are actually much more efficient at getting pressure when they don’t blitz. This is why Flores has toned it down since last year, when he blitzed on an absurd 49.5% of dropbacks.
In the first matchup, Goff went 14-of-15 with 150 yards and a touchdown against the blitz and was only sacked once with zero turnovers. Another thing to note about Flores is his ability to mix up schemes. In my Shannon Entropy unpredictability metric, the Vikings have the second most unpredictable defense. This really shows up when you break down their personnel usage against different teams.
With the transition around the league to primarily nickel defense, the Vikings still run 3% of their plays out of a base 3-4 defense and 9% out of a 4-3. Both of these numbers rank 18th in the league, which is about average. Against Detroit, the Vikings ran zero plays in 3-4, 2 plays in 4-3, and 73.2% of their plays in nickel.
Whatever the reason (likely because Ben Johnson is a wizard), the Lions force the Vikings’ defense into a less aggressive and more predictable defense. This works in their favor. In Flores’ time as a defensive coordinator, Johnson and the Lions rank fourth in EPA against his defenses behind the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs.
Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Justin Herbert. It takes either a legendary play-caller, a legendary quarterback, or some combination of both to top a Flores-led defense. With that being said, I like the Vikings to cover the spread in this game because I fully expect their offense to go shot for shot with Detroit, just like last time.
My pick: Vikings +3 (-112)