If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this fascinating Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts Week 15 Saturday matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Vikings vs. Colts: Top Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume Indy won’t be able to hang with the less mistake-prone Vikings. Surely they’ll try, and there’s always a chance Jonathan Taylor will dominate volume and production while leading the win-desperate Colts to an upset.
But more likely, Minnesota will control the tempo and field position, thanks in part to a run defense yielding only 3.7 yards per carry. To consistently capitalize on the Vikes’ weaker secondary, Matt Ryan would need to play at a higher level than we’ve often seen this year.
I’m eyeing a roughly 26-13 Vikings victory. With that in mind, here are my recommended prop bets for several key players.
Kirk Cousins Prop Bets
Despite their poor record — or maybe because of it — QBs have averaged only 29.7 pass attempts per game against Indy. The Colts’ key to victory rests largely in Taylor’s hands. That should result in a more middling passing effort for Kirk Cousins, who probably won’t need to throw as much as usual.
Of course, there’s always a chance the Colts could jump out to a two-touchdown lead. And frankly, Minnesota’s won too many close games to expect a blowout victory versus an above-average Indy defense.
MORE: NFL Week 15 Best Bets
But the odds are pretty favorable that Cousins will take a backseat for much of the second half, as Dalvin Cook and perhaps Alexander Mattison eat up yards and minutes, while Cousins picks his moments on high-percentage throws to his near-elite receiving corps.
- Passing yards under 268.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns under 1.5
(+110) — BetMGM - Pass attempts under 35.5
(-120) — BetMGM - Pass completions under 23.5
(-105) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(-155) — DraftKings
Dalvin Cook Prop Bets
I’m lukewarm on Cook’s rushing potential on Saturday, but am more interested in the Colts’ vulnerability against RBs through the air. They’re giving up the sixth-most RB receptions and the fourth-most red-zone targets to the position.
Cook hasn’t been the dominant pass catcher we’ve seen in years past, and his career-low 5.9 yards per reception are two yards below his lifetime average.
Still, this seemingly inexplicable downturn seems reversible. When the Patriots and Eagles shut Cook down on the ground, he caught four passes in each game. There’s certainly some pop here, assuming the Vikings adjust to what the Colts’ defense presents to them.
- Receptions over 2.5
(-140) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 14.5
(-114) — FanDuel
T.J. Hockenson Prop Bets
I’ve been pushing T.J. Hockenson every week since the Vikings traded for him. Brilliant acquisition. Elevated this offense on Day 1. And yet, his prop line assumes too much. Cousins will continue to spread the ball around, and his expected muted output should adversely impact Hockenson’s yardage.
- Receiving yards under 50.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Matt Ryan Prop Bets
This could be Ryan’s final NFL start in what arguably should be a Hall of Fame career.
Since the end of the Andrew Luck era, the Colts have been a place where quarterbacks go to retire (Philip Rivers), or else enjoy some starts before reverting to (or back to) a backup QB role the following year.
I don’t think Ryan has more tricks up his sleeve. The 37-year-old leads the league in interceptions, and his 13:13 touchdown-to-interception ratio is the worst of his career. He’s also enduring a career-high sack rate (one sack per 7.6 pass attempts).
All the dump-off passes Ryan can muster probably won’t be enough to win this game. And in fact, a slow start could send him to the showers early.
- Passing yards under 254.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns under 1.5
(-145) — FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor Prop Bets
Taylor has some similarities with Melvin Gordon III, who lost four fumbles as a rookie in 2015. He then lost another the following season in Week 4 . . . and then another in Week 5. His team, the Chargers, lost those games by one and three points, respectively.
What happened in Week 6? He earned 27 carries. Why? Because the 1-4 Chargers didn’t have a choice. They had drafted the now 23-year-old to be their long-term bell cow. His benefits — and the lack of backfield talent around him — kept him front-and-center in his offense.
Not surprisingly, Gordon’s time in Denver ended this year because he still couldn’t hold onto the ball.
MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 15
Meanwhile, Taylor isn’t going anywhere, at least not soon. He’ll be the Colts’ starter next season, until/unless his turnovers (a modest one every seven games for his career) become more habitual.
Here’s what we do know — or rather, might know. Taylor’s three fumbles in a recent five-game span are worrisome, especially with a new head coach at the helm, and with Indy needing to decide whether to extend him before the end of next season.
If the Colts stay competitive in this contest against Minnesota, I can see Taylor rushing 18-20 times. But if he struggles to get going against the Vikings’ vaunted run defense, and/or if the Colts are down big by the third quarter, Taylor could get phased out in a game that could almost officially knock Indy out of postseason contention.
- Rushing attempts under 20.5
(-130) — DraftKings - Rushing yards under 82.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Receptions over 2.5
(-180) — DraftKings