If you’re playing a Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 5, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Vikings vs. Bears DFS Lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”160004″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Vikings DFS Considerations
Last season, among players with at least 150 rush attempts, Dalvin Cook averaged the most yards before contact (2.7). He was elite the season before at 2.6. This year? 3.2. The offensive line isn’t why he’s outside the top 24 in RB fantasy points per game. No, there are three primary reasons, and they set the stage for how we might assemble a Vikings-Bears DFS lineup.
First, Cook’s yards-after-contact average has plummeted to 1.2 (from 1.9 last year and 2.4 in 2020). Second, he’s scored only once. Third, after averaging 4.2 targets in his first 58 NFL games, he’s collected only two looks in his last two games. For context, Week 3 was the first time he was target-less since 2018 — when he played less than 25% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps.
As we consider which Vikings players to include in this lineup, much depends on whether we believe Cook will roast a Chicago defense that’s given up the most rushing yards in the league and spent the third-most minutes on the field. If Cook’s shoulder isn’t a hindrance (and he looked fine playing last Sunday morning), he could be the ultimate boom option on a team loaded with upside, including the inimitable Justin Jefferson.
Bears DFS Considerations
It’s hard to justify starting any Chicago receiver in DFS. Justin Fields is averaging 92.5 passing yards per contest. Last year, three WRs averaged more. Let that sink in. Entering last Sunday, Fields had the fewest passing yards through Week 3 of any QB since 1975. In the DFS era, we’ve never seen anything like this.
MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Week 5
So, we’ll keep this simple. If you believe Chicago’s on the verge of busting out, great. But I don’t see it, and I want as few Bears as possible in this DFS lineup. Maybe Khalil Herbert. Perhaps a cheap Trestan Ebner or Velus Jones Jr. Whatever the approach, betting on Fields to right the ship on the road against the bend-don’t-break Vikings pass defense is beyond risky.
Recommended DFS Lineup
Jefferson ($12,600 normally, $18,900 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. No one in this contest can match his ceiling, period. Let’s also roll with Cook ($11,400), who didn’t appear to have any setbacks with his shoulder in London, and who’s a great bet to rebound statistically. I tried to trade for him this week. So yeah, I’m all in.
Some competitors will jump at the chance to start Herbert ($8,800) if David Montgomery remains out. Here’s the thing: Herbert overwhelmed Houston two weeks ago, because that’s what most RBs do against Houston. But unless he scores 18+ points, is he worth slotting in at this steep price? Chicago’s scored the second-fewest points in the league, and their passing game is a mess. Won’t Minnesota’s solid defense force Fields to beat them?
Assuming a relatively low-scoring game, let’s add Adam Thielen ($8,400), the Vikings D/ST ($5,200), and Greg Joseph ($4,000). With our final $2,100, we can afford Ebner ($1,600), who could see a little more work if Montgomery sits.
If Montgomery plays, then replace Ebner with Cole Kmet ($2,400), which would force us to ditch the Vikings D/ST for Irv Smith Jr. ($4,600).