The Minnesota Vikings will face the Los Angeles Rams on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold has a little wiggle to his game but is largely a pocket passer. However, he’s my top-ranked QB who isn’t a threat to break open the game with his legs.
Soppe’s Wild Card QB rankings:
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Jayden Daniels
- Jalen Hurts
- Sam Darnold
He completed 72% of his passes for 240 yards and a pair of scores in Week 8 against the Rams, a stat line that feels like a floor. He was efficient without the running game demanding much defensive attention (22 carries for 64 yards).
If Minnesota can force Los Angeles to respect the run at any level, Darnold becomes a good bet to hit the 300-yard bonus, which would help him make up for the lack of projectable rushing production. The Rams are the worst playoff team in terms of time of possession, another feather in Darnold’s cap as it paves the way for high-end volume that a player like Jackson might not get.
We get all sorts of readers here at PFN; some are fans of a good narrative. If that’s you:
In Week 7, Sam Darnold had as many touchdowns as interceptions in a loss where his team allowed 31 points to the Lions — he followed it up with his second-best passer rating of the season in Los Angeles against the Rams. He didn’t have any touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday’s 31-9 loss to the Lions, so …
The nice part about taking a passing-oriented quarterback is the stacking ability. Darnold isn’t posting a big week without one, if not two or three, of his pass catchers coming along for the ride. I don’t expect Darnold to be a chalky QB, and if you lock in two of his teammates with him, you instantly have a pretty unique nucleus.
Aaron Jones, RB
Aaron Jones hasn’t had a 15+ yard carry since November and has seen his rushing total decline in three straight games (held out of the end zone in each of those contests). I don’t think Cam Akers is a real threat to really push this to a committee situation, but he does have an explosive rush in consecutive games and found paydirt on a catch against the Packers in Week 17.
Jones didn’t exactly put forward good film in Week 8 against these Rams, picking up just 58 yards on 19 carries, averaging a season-low 1.89 yards per carry after contact in the process. That said, Minnesota was comfortable in acquiring the former Packer in part because of his postseason success.
For his career, Jones has produced 11% over expectations in postseason games, averaging 4.6 red-zone touches per game. There are some signs that the Vikings could use him in a similar way, as he averaged 4.5 targets and 3.3 red-zone touches against teams that qualified for the postseason.
I don’t think there is much hope for high-end efficiency, and that means you’re effectively chasing a touchdown. Generally speaking, I’m out on that sort of profile, but if you’re going to do it this week, Jones is as good a bet as any, playing on a team that is favored and opposing a defense that allows a touchdown on 25% of drives, the second-worst rate among playoff teams.
Minnesota should bounce back from their embarrassing showing on Sunday night, I’m just not sold that their RB1 is the beneficiary.
Jordan Addison, WR
Jordan Addison earned just three targets and put just 22 yards on the board in Week 8 against these Rams (27 routes), but that was before his breakout. Since Week 11, only eight receivers have scored more PPR points than Addison – that comes with Justin Jefferson functioning at full capacity (he’s WR6 over that stretch).
The Rams are the worst playoff team against the pass in terms of yards per attempt, something that could allow Addison to break the slate should he find himself on the end of a long play or two, giving you leverage on all of the Jefferson teams.
While he seems to have established himself as a suitable Robin to Jefferson’s Batman, there is no denying the risk. T.J. Hockenson’s playing time is on the rise, Jalen Nailor is still around, and we did just see him produce a dud in the most important game of the season (one catch on six targets for zero yards in Detroit). He’s far from bust-proof, but he’s priced in the George Pickens/Zay Flowers tier. That’s a fine spot to land if your roster build puts you there.
Full disclosure, I’m paying up a touch for Terry McLaurin or Cooper Kupp before going this direction.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Arguably the best receiver in the sport is going to do best-receiver-in-the-sport-type things more often than not. I could tell you that, in Weeks 1-9, Justin Jefferson scored 33.8% more PPR points than expected based on his target diet and while he’s still on the plus side of things since, his +5.3% is still symbolic of a struggle by his lofty standards. That’s true and maybe that scares you.
For me, that feels like spending too much time in front of a database, something I am 100% guilty of. Jefferson has posted a target rate north of 25% in four straight seasons. When a receiver has seen that sort of involvement against the Rams, he’s had a field day (20.4 PPR PPG).
We got an 8-115-0 stat line from Jefferson in Week 8 against these Rams, a game in which he earned a 39.1% target share. I have no concerns about his ability to get open in any matchup. The fact that we have visual confirmation of his ability to do so in this spot only confirms that.
If you wanted to label Jefferson in a tier unto himself this weekend at the position, I wouldn’t fight you. Rostering him requires some creativity, but there are enough value pieces to make it work.
In playoff-long formats, I lean Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown over Jefferson, as I have both of those teams penciled in for an edge in terms of games played, but it’s awfully tight at the top of the board, especially without the AFC having someone I feel comfortable putting in that conversation.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
With each passing week, my finger gets a little more itchy to take an aggressive approach on positive T.J. Hockenson props. I haven’t yet pulled the trigger in a major way, but the time might be here.
Hockenson’s participation progression, 2024:
- Weeks 1-8: DNP
- Weeks 9-11: 45.5% snap share
- Weeks 12-15: 64.2% snap share
- Weeks 16-18: 71.6% snap share
The Johnny Mundt/Josh Oliver contingent caught three of four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown when these teams first met, a game that took place before Hockenson was cleared to return. It’s very possible he soaks up that usage and then some against a defense that ranked 31st in yards allowed per attempt via the short pass.
Those targets aren’t always exciting, but I expect them to be wide open as the Rams (28th in opponent deep passer rating) allocate resources to slow down the quick strike duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Sam Darnold wasn’t shy about pushing the envelope in that Week 8 meeting (10.4 aDOT, his second-highest of the season), and with Los Angeles able to escape with a victory, I’m willing to wager that they are game-planning to get the ball out of his hands much quicker this time around.
Sportsbooks are under no pressure to post prop lines for the final game of the week with any urgency. Yet, when they do, I’ll be looking at the prices on Hockenson to clear 3.5 and 4.5 catches.