The Minnesota Vikings will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold was great last week in Seattle (246 passing yards with three passing scores), has been great most of the season, and didn’t stumble in Lambeau (275 passing yards with three scores).
He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his past six games, and nothing in his profile suggests that regression is coming. With T.J. Hockenson proving healthy, Jordan Addison emerging, and Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson-ing, this Vikings squad is a dangerous one to bet against at this point.
The Packers rank 27th in blitz rate this season (18%), a strategy that has been picked at by Minnesota lately. Since Week 12, Lamar Jackson is the only QB with a higher passing touchdown rate when not blitzed than Darnold — this could be a highly entertaining game that paves the way for another fun NFC North battle next week with the Lions and Vikings.
Aaron Jones, RB
I think we are pretty comfortable in the labeling and projecting of Aaron Jones after 16 weeks — he’s safe. We are looking at 15-18 carries with 2-4 targets and reasonable scoring potential given the trajectory of this offense (152 points over its past five games).
In his first revenge game against the Packers, Jones gave us ceiling usage with 22 carries and five targets (139 scrimmage yards). If they pound him like that against a Green Bay team that is likely to do the same with Josh Jacobs, this could be a low-possession game that caps the upside of all involved.
Even if that’s the case, you’re getting bell-cow work in an efficient offense – I prefer Jacobs to Jones, but you’re playing both.
Jordan Addison, WR
Over the past two weeks, none of Jordan Addison’s 12 catches have gained 20 yards (previously, in his career, one of every 4.2 receptions picked up 20 yards).
Sheesh, Kyle, talk about nitpicking.
It should be viewed as a badge of honor when I do something like that; it means that a player has produced at such a level that they deserve that sort of attention. Over his past six games, Addison has averaged 2.4 yards per route and produced 33.2% over fantasy expectations. He’s been phenomenal, which means he can be flexed with confidence this week.
In the Week 4 meeting with the Packers, he scored twice: once on a 29-yard pass in the first quarter and the other on a nice second-quarter run design. That was back in September, and the Vikings were scheming ways to get him involved. Given the recent run, they are only more motivated to feature him, and with the Packers traveling on a short week, I think you can feel just fine in riding this heater for another week.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Jefferson is as good as it gets, and taking time out from a busy football weekend to watch this man work is something I’d recommend to any football fan. We saw him put together a 6-85-1 stat line (29.6% target share) in the Week 4 meeting with these Packers when they were at the peak of their powers in terms of opportunistic playmaking.
This unit is still solid, but Jefferson is as matchup-proof as anybody in the business, and I expect to get more evidence of that this weekend.
Jordan Addison is ascending quickly, and guess what? It doesn’t matter. In December, Jefferson produced 45.5% more points than expected on his targets. Is it possible that the small target volume of Addison’s breakout takes off Jefferson’s plate and is more than replaced by increased efficiency?
That’s a scary thought. There’s never a reason to be concerned about Jefferson — watch him play this week and start putting together what you think the first round of 2025 drafts is going to look like. Spoiler alert: There won’t be many names called before JJetta.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
Since his return, T.J. Hockenson hasn’t been all that impactful. That isn’t surprising, but the “how” behind it has been.
It’s Jordan Addison.
After a pair of ramp-up weeks, the Vikings got their tight end up to where they appear to be content with in terms of snap share (mid-60 %). He hasn’t had any setbacks that would lead me to believe that limitations or aggravation are to blame for 7.3 PPR points per game in December.
The emergence of Addison has simply made Hockenson’s role less advantageous. His on-field target share is down three percentage points from a season ago. With an aDOT that is up 15.8%, that brings into the equation two-for-27 stinkers like what we saw over the weekend in Seattle.
I fear that it’s possible we moved, rather quickly, from Tier 1 TJ to The Goedert Zone. In Philadelphia for the past three seasons, they’ve had a pair of strong receivers, and while their tight end served a purpose, he wasn’t the same asset he was before (14.8 yards per catch in 2021 and 11.4 since the acquisition of A.J. Brown).
It’s hard to make three pass catchers viable on a consistent basis, and the Vikings seem to be leaving heavily in favor of a 22-year-old former first-round pick over a tight end in his sixth season after a serious injury.
I can’t say I blame them. I also can’t say that I’d be overly comfortable in starting Hockenson this week. I’ve got him sitting at TE11 right now, just ahead of Brenton Strange but behind Chig Okonkwo and Dalton Schultz.
