We’re going to run through our favorite player props for the Wild Card round matchup between the Rams and the Vikings, which features star players across the board. For some of us, this is the best weekend on the entire sports calendar, and this game is the finale.
There are a lot of interesting topics, storylines, and betting trends out there right now – but we’ve selected our top plays and lays for this Monday Night Football showdown.
Remember – for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Our Favorite Vikings vs. Rams Player Props and Lines
Vikings at Rams, Rams +2.5 (-105)
This is not an overreaction. I repeat. This is not an overreaction. Before anyone else asks, let’s look at some stats.
- Since Christmas Eve, 2023, the Vikings have been 0-5 against teams for which Matthew Stafford has started a game and 14-1 against the other 29 teams in the NFL.
- The Vikings have played six games against playoff teams this season – their four worst points-per-drive defensive performances have come in those contests.
- The Rams have been home underdogs five times this season, compiling a 3-2 record. They secured wins against the Bills, Vikings, and 49ers but fell to the Eagles and Packers. Their three home-underdog victories are tied with the Panthers (3-5) for the most by any team this season.
There it is folks. It’s not sexy by any means – but we’re following the playoff experience of McVay and Stafford over the newcomers in O’Connell and Darnold.
Vikings at Rams, Under 47.5 Total Points (-108)
Under tickets are 6-3 in Los Angeles’ past nine playoff games and have come through in each of the past three such spots. The Vikings failed to cover on Sunday night, a game that went under the total, and that’s a rare occurrence – they were 7-2 ATS in games that saw fewer points than expected.
Among the seven NFC playoff teams, the Vikings and Rams have the two worst red zone offenses. Minnesota ranked 19th in red zone touchdown percentage during the regular season (55.7%), while Los Angeles ranked 25th (52.4%).
Kyren Williams, Anytime TD (-125)
Over the Rams’ current win streak, Williams is producing 11.2% above expectations. He’s a great player, but I’m encouraged because the offensive line is getting stronger at the perfect time (Williams is averaging 18.5% more yards per carry before contact over those games than he did previously).
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
Combine that with a role that ranks favorably for just about anyone (six missed games since last season and he still leads the league with 126 red-zone touches), and you could argue that Williams’ floor is the highest on the slate.
Williams has scored a TD in five of his last six games. When you pair this with the data above, I love Williams to get in the end zone on Monday night.
Justin Jefferson, Anytime TD (-120)
After Darnold stared down his favorite target in the end zone last week, throwing him three straight balls (and missing on all of them) – I love JJ to get back into the endzone this week.
Under the brightest lights, we saw him get nearly shut out of last week’s tilt vs the Lions, and I don’t think there’s any way to keep him down in two straight games. We got an 8-115-0 stat line from Jefferson in Week 8 against these Rams, a game in which he earned a 39.1% target share. I have no concerns about his ability to get open in any matchup.
The fact that we have visual confirmation of his ability to do so in this spot only confirms that, and after getting so heavily targeted in the red zone last week (and failing), we like the Vikings to draw up something specifically for their star WR.
Monday Funday: Favorite Parlay (+485)
- Aaron Jones: O2.5 Receptions (-155)
- Kyren Williams: O1.5 Receptions (-165)
- Jalen Nailor: 25+ Receiving Yards (+135)
I love this little number. Jones has been surprisingly efficient as a receiver this season and has gone over 2.5 catches in his last three games and five of his last seven. The same goes for Williams, who has also shown nice consistency as a pass catcher out of the backfield. He’s had 2+ catches in three of his last four games.
Finally, the dart throw. The spiciest of the spicy. In the last two games, Vikings WR Jalen Nailor has been heavily featured. Jefferson and Addison have been drawing so much attention, it’s left Nailor open. In his last two games, he made five catches for 81 yards, and last week, he had three catches for 53 yards. In both games, he had a catch longer than 25 yards. All it takes is one!
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.