The Minnesota Vikings were the NFC’s last unbeaten team at 5-0 but have been chasing the Detroit Lions ever since a two-game losing streak in October. Where do the Vikings fall in the NFC? Let’s examine all the playoff scenarios remaining for Minnesota after Sunday of Week 17.
What Is the Minnesota Vikings’ Current Playoff Picture?
When the Vikings and Lions meet in Week 18, it will be to decide the No. 1 seed and the NFC North. In Week 17, the Lions visited the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football and easily won the game. The Vikings had also already taken care of business and defeated the Packers at home to go to 14-2.
Since the Lions already defeated the Vikings and have a better division and conference record, there is no sequence of events that can result in the Vikings winning a tiebreaker over the Lions. Minnesota must finish with an outright better record than Detroit. Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot.
VIKINGS VS. LIONS.
WEEK 18.
WINNER GETS THE #1 SEED AND NFC NORTH TITLE. pic.twitter.com/lVRDh40U4M
— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2024
How Can the Vikings Win the NFC North and No. 1 Seed?
Minnesota’s simplest path to the division title and No. 1 seed is a 2-0 finish. That’s because the Vikings can pass the Lions with a Week 18 win in Detroit.
However, the Vikings cannot win any tiebreaker with the Lions. If both finish 1-1 or 1-0-1, the Lions will win the division under the following rationale:
- If the Lions match or pass the Vikings by record with a Week 18 win, they’ll win the head-to-head tiebreaker (beat Minnesota in Week 7 as well).
- If the Lions and Vikings each finish 14-3 with Minnesota winning the Week 18 rematch, the Lions would win on the division-record tiebreaker (5-1 vs. 4-2).
- If the Lions and Vikings each finish 13-3-1 by tying the Week 18 rematch, the Lions would win on the division-record tiebreaker (5-0-1 vs. 3-2-1).
The Vikings could have also earned the No. 1 seed with a loss and a 14-3 record, but that path was much more specific:
- Week 17 loss vs. GB
- DET Week 17 loss at SF
- Week 18 win at DET
- PHI loses at least one of last two games (vs. DAL, vs. NYG)
That would have given Minnesota the outright best NFC record at 14-3, with the Lions and Eagles both finishing 13-4. But after their win against Green Bay, that situation no longer applies.
What Are the Vikings’ Possible Seeds?
The Vikings can finish with the No. 1 or 5 seed. We covered the scenarios for the Vikings to earn the top seed above, but here’s how they can earn the other seed.
- No. 5 seed: MIN fails to finish ahead of DET + MIN does not finish 0-2 + GB does not finish 2-0
Minnesota’s win against the Packers means they will finish no worse than the No. 5 seed.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.