The Minnesota Vikings came extremely close to sitting out Wild Card Weekend with a bye, but unfortunately, the way the NFL playoff seeding works means they are now on the road to start the playoffs as the No. 5 seed in the NFC. Their Week 18 loss to the Detroit Lions changed the entire shape of the Vikings playoff situation and meant they may not play at home again this season.
The Vikings will face the Los Angeles Rams in Glendale, Arizona, to round out Wild Card Weekend, but if they win, there are a few paths their journey could take. With the help of the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the Vikings’ scenarios for the NFC bracket and their potential opponents for the Divisional Round.
What Are the Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Scenarios?
Being the No. 5 seed, there are four potential opponents for the Vikings in the Divisional Round. The only team in the bracket they cannot face in the Divisional Round is the Green Bay Packers (and the Rams).
All scenarios and probabilities from here on in will be calculated using the assumption that the Vikings have beaten the Rams. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, including the Vikings odds of winning on Wild Card Weekend, we have them with a 54.9% chance of winning.
Additionally, for all scenarios outlined in this article, the key thing to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. When each round of games is over, the lowest remaining seed is paired up to face the highest remaining seed, and the higher seed in every matchup hosts the game.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Vikings’ most likely opponent is the Detroit Lions. With both the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles and No. 3 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored to win, the Vikings would be the lowest remaining seed in the AFC and would head to Arrowhead for a second time this season.
There is a 32.3% chance that the Vikings play their Divisional Round game in Detroit, where they finished the regular season in Week 18. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 26.6% chance of playing in Philadelphia, with a game in Tampa Bay at 22.5% and then a game in Minnesota against the Commanders at 18.5%.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff Bracket
The Vikings can head to Philadelphia if the Eagles beat the Packers and the Commanders beat the Buccaneers. That would leave the No. 6 seed Commanders going to the Lions and the No. 5 seed Vikings heading into Philadelphia.
For the Vikings to head to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers would need to beat the Commanders, and the Packers would need to upset the Eagles on the road. As the No. 7 seed, the Packers would then head to Ford Field, with the Vikings going to Raymond James Stadium for a matchup with the Buccaneers.
We could also see the Vikings hosting a playoff game in the Divisional Round, but they would need three upsets in the NFC bracket on Wild Card Weekend. If the Commanders beat the Buccaneers and the Packers beat the Eagles, then the Vikings would be the second-highest remaining seed. The Packers would head to Detroit, and the Vikings would host the Commanders in Minnesota.
Could the Vikings Host the AFC Championship Game?
Despite losing the game in Week 18 and missing out on the No. 1 seed, the Vikings still have a chance of hosting the NFC Championship Game. It is certainly a much smaller chance, but there is still a chance. Three of those four Wild Card Weekend outcomes would give the Vikings a potential opportunity to host the NFC Championship Game.
They would need either the Packers or Commanders to upset the Lions in Detroit in the Divisional Round, but there would be a path to it. Should the Eagles, Buccaneers, and Vikings all win on Wild Card Weekend, then as the lowest-remaining seed, the Vikings would have no path to hosting the NFC Championship Game.