The Minnesota Vikings came extremely close to sitting out Wild Card Weekend with a bye, but unfortunately, the way the NFL playoff seeding works means they are now on the road to start the playoffs as the No. 5 seed in the NFC. Their Week 18 loss to the Detroit Lions changed the entire shape of the Vikings playoff situation and meant they may not play at home again this season.
The Vikings will face the Los Angeles Rams in Glendale, Arizona, to round out Wild Card Weekend, but if they win, who will they face next? Let’s examine the Vikings’ Divisional Round opponent if they can get past the Rams.
Who Will the Minnesota Vikings Play in the Divisional Round?
If the Vikings can take care of business and defeat the Rams, they will go on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round.
NBC announced that the Eagles will play the winner of the Vikings-Rams on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET.
Here is the NFC bracket entering the final game of Wild Card Weekend:
What Were the Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Scenarios?
Being the No. 5 seed, there were two potential opponents for the Vikings in the Divisional Round.
All scenarios and probabilities from here on in will be calculated using the assumption that the Vikings have beaten the Rams. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, including the Vikings odds of winning on Wild Card Weekend, we have them with a 54.9% chance of winning.
Additionally, for all scenarios outlined in this article, the key thing to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. When each round of games is over, the lowest remaining seed is paired up to face the highest remaining seed, and the higher seed in every matchup hosts the game.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Vikings’ most likely opponent was the Detroit Lions. With the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles defeating the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers and the No. 3 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored to win, the Vikings would have been the lowest remaining seed in the AFC and would head to Ford Field for a second time this season. However, the Commanders upsetting the Bucs threw a wrench in that.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff Bracket
The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities was Minnesota playing in Philadelphia. With a Washington win, the Vikings knew that would be heading to Philly.
Could the Vikings Host the AFC Championship Game?
Despite losing the game in Week 18 and missing out on the No. 1 seed, the Vikings still have a chance of hosting the NFC Championship Game.
It is certainly a much smaller chance, but there is still a chance. Three of those four Wild Card Weekend outcomes would give the Vikings a potential opportunity to host the NFC Championship Game.
They would need the Commanders to upset the Lions in Detroit in the Divisional Round, but there would be a path to it.
Had the Buccaneers defeated the Commanders on Sunday night, the Vikings would’ve had no path to hosting the NFC Championship Game. So, Washington’s win over Tampa Bay helped Minnesota in more ways than one.
