The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most consistent contenders of the 2024 season, stringing together a pair of five-game win streaks. That leaves Minnesota on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.
We take a look at those clinching scenarios for the Vikings as well as the overall landscape of the NFC playoff picture.
Vikings Playoff Clinching Scenario Updates | Week 14
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Results
- Minnesota Vikings (11-2) def. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Results
- Los Angeles Rams (7-6) def. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (8-5) def. Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
The Vikings needed the Cardinals and the Rams to lose this week to clinch a playoff spot. Arizona did their job losing to Seattle, but the Rams surprised many by beating the 10-win Bills. Minnesota will need to wait to officially clinch a spot.
Can the Vikings Now Get the No. 1 Seed in the NFC?
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Vikings have a 19.4% chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the third highest of any team. Here are all the teams with greater than a 1% chance to earn the top seed in the NFC:
- Detroit Lions: 55.6%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 22.4%
- Minnesota Vikings: 19.4%
- Green Bay Packers: 2%
What Were the Vikings’ Playoff-Clinching Scenarios This Week?
The likeliest clinching path for the Vikings this week would involve a win, plus losses by the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams. Below is every potential clinching scenario for Minnesota in Week 14.
- MIN win + SEA-ARI tie
- MIN win + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
- MIN tie + TB loss + ARI loss + LAR loss
- MIN tie + TB loss + ARI tie + LAR loss + PHI win or tie
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
Falcons vs. Vikings Insights
Tale of the Tape: Cousins vs. Darnold
It’s homecoming week for Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, who returns to Minnesota for the first time since signing a four-year, $180 million contract with the Falcons in the offseason.
Cousins left the Twin Cities ranked in the top three in franchise history in wins by a quarterback (50), passing yards (23,265), and touchdowns (171).
But the Vikings have to like how their decision to let him walk has aged. Certainly, they didn’t want rookie J.J. McCarthy to suffer a season-ending injury before he took a single NFL snap, but their offense has been more than adequate with backup Sam Darnold, who is on a one-year, $10 million reclamation-project contract.
Despite costing the Vikings a fraction of what Cousins cost the Falcons, Darnold has a superior body of work. He has a better QB+ (77.5 to 73.1) and QBR (56 to 54.6), more offensive touchdowns (24 to 17), and a slightly higher completion percentage (67.6% to 67.4%).
Darnold is not just a better value than Cousins … he might be a better player — period — at this point.
The most telling stat: red-zone efficiency. Darnold has completed 69.4% of his attempts from the 20 and in with 18 passing touchdowns. Cousins’ numbers: 56.1% and 10.
The Island of Fabian Moreau?
The Vikings’ defense has been spectacular under Brian Flores, who has been able to draw up all kinds of exotic fronts because of the confidence he has in his defensive backfield. But will Flores have to dial it back in Week 14 with Stephon Gilmore out due to a hamstring injury?
Gilmore entered Week 14 ranked fifth among all Vikings defenders in snaps (678/800). He and Byron Murphy Jr. barely come off the field — and that’s worked out well for Minnesota.
But if Gilmore can’t go, it means a bigger role for CB3 Shaquill Griffin, and a far bigger role for veteran Fabian Moreau, who has been on the field for just 4% of Minnesota’s defensive plays in 2024. Assuming he’s active on Sunday, it’ll just be Moreau’s sixth appearance of the season.
What can the Vikings expect from a former NFL starter who’s on his fifth team in as many seasons? Hard to say. Moreau has never been a particularly sticky corner. In his career, he’s allowed 63.8% of passes in his coverage area to be completed for 20 touchdowns and an 8.3 yards-per-target average.
So will the Vikings go zone-heavy this week to protect Moreau? We’ll see. But the majority of the pass-coverage snaps in his career have been zone-based.
Justin Jefferson vs. Falcons Defense
The first and only time Justin Jefferson faced the Falcons, it was dicey for Atlanta.
We’re talking way back in 2020, when, as a rookie, Jefferson roasted the Falcons for 166 yards and a touchdown on nine catches. It was his third game of 100+ yards in a span of four weeks and a clear sign to the rest of the league that Jefferson was a big-time problem.
Four years later, he’s an even bigger one. Jefferson through 13 weeks leads the NFC in receiving yards (1,038), and that doesn’t include the 154 additional yards he’s drawn on eight defensive pass-interference penalties.
He’s gone over 1,000 yards in each of his first five seasons with consistent excellence. His yards before catch (10.8) and yards after catch (4.5) this year are right at his career average.
Will Jefferson feast on Dirty Birds this week?
Not if the Falcons can recreate the game plan they used to limit CeeDee Lamb to just 47 yards on 12 targets in Week 9 — the eighth-lowest yards-per-target average of his career (3.92). Atlanta’s DBs successfully kept everything in front of them that day. They limited Lamb to four yards before the catch and didn’t miss a tackle.
PFN Expert Picks
- David Bearman: Vikings
- Adam Beasley: Vikings
- Dakota Randall: Vikings
- Dallas Robinson: Vikings
- Kyle Soppe: Falcons
- Dan Tomaro: Vikings
- Mike Wobschall: Vikings
- Anthony DiBona: Vikings
A complete list of PFN’s experts NFL Week 14 picks is available here.