The Minnesota Vikings (-7, 44) will travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10.
Below are our final picks for the game, which include contributions from Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Analyst Kyle Soppe, and/or Analyst Jason Katz.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Longest Reception Under 27.5 Yards
(Soppe) Get ready to be uncomfortable.
Jefferson is among the best receivers in the game and the Jaguars are a mess that has lost seven of nine games (34-plus points allowed in four of their past five games). Those are facts.
It’s also a fact that the NFL average pass rate is 50.2% this season for teams when leading (Minnesota is -325 on the moneyline) compared to 65.6% when trailing. This is also a fact for Jefferson in this Sam Darnold era:
Percentage of catches gaining 28+ yards
- 2020: 12.5%
- 2021: 11.1%
- 2022: 12.5%
- 2023: 16.2%
- 2024: 8.3%
He has 54 such catches for his career and 50 (92.6%) of them have come courtesy of a pass that traveled 15-plus yards in the air. The Jaguars aren’t often attacked deep down field (ninth lowest opponent aDOT, 6.5% below league average) because there’s no need to absorb that risk. On balls thrown less than 10 yards down field this season, Jacksonville ranks …
- 24th in touchdown rate
- 29th in interception rate
- 29th in completion percentage
- 29th in passer rating
Jefferson has the potential to dominate this game and not cash his over longest reception prop. He also has the potential to not be used at his average rate if this game ends up one-sided (the spread jumped 2.5 points once Trevor Lawrence was ruled out).
Pick: Under 44
(Soppe) It’s no secret what the Vikings want to do the same way that we are all aware that Steph Curry wants to launch a three-pointer – you just have to stop it.
Easier said than done.
The Vikings continue to be as aggressive as anyone in terms of exotic defensive formations and bringing extra bodies, something that should create issues for the Jags in the few possessions they get in this spot (MIN: fourth slowest offense).
Through nine weeks, Lawrence is pacing for a career low in yards per completion when pressured and a career low touchdown rate when blitzed. Not ideal. With Christian Kirk (shoulder) done for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. (chest) operating at less than full capacity, what confidence do we have that Jacksonville is going to be able to sustain drives, let alone finish them off?
Sam Darnold has been great this season, but he does have seven interceptions this season and if we are counting on Minnesota to dictate tempo and control the ball, it may only take one extended drive that ends prematurely due to a bad decision to put us on the right side of this total.
Unders are 12-4 in Lawrence’s career as a home dog and I’m not sure we see the type of splash plays in this game to change that.
Pick: Take Down to 45.5
(Katz) I wanted to go with rush + receiving here, but we don’t have a line, and I am afraid if we wait, this line will drop.
Bigsby remains the clear lead runner for the Jaguars. However, there are so many things working against him, especially this week.
First, Travis Etienne Jr. returned last week. Bigsby went from 26 and 18 carries in the previous two weeks to just eight. It would not surprise me to see Etienne, who carried the ball three times last week, at least see a couple more on the ground, which would come at Bigsby’s expense.
Second, this offense as a whole could struggle to sustain drives. Mac Jones is set to start in place of an injured Lawrence. While Lawrence isn’t anything more than a low-end NFL starter, he’s still a starter. Jones is not. If the game script gets away from the Jaguars, we could see more Etienne and D’Ernest Johnson. And even if Bigsby is out there, the Jaguars may be throwing a lot more than they want to.
Third, the Vikings are stout against the run. They’re allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Their 3.8 yards per carry allowed is the third-lowest in the league.
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Vikings vs. Jaguars Game Stats and Insights
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have been sacked on 10.4% of their dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league (Cleveland Browns: 11.3%).
QB: After returning from an ugly London performance (14-of-31 against the New York Jets), Darnold has completed 68-of-86 passes (79.1%).
Offense: The Vikings have been trailing for a league-low 16% of their offensive snaps (the Los Angeles Chargers are the only other team under 25.8% this season).
Defense: Take your shots deep — no team has seen opponents throw 15+ yards downfield more times per game this season (9.1 per game).
Fantasy: T.J. Hockenson played only 45.1% of the snaps on Sunday, his season debut (2023: 79.6%), but he did post an 11.5-yard aDOT (2023: 7.6).
Betting: The Vikings are 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) in their 11 road games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: Jacksonville is 2-7 with five losses coming by five or fewer points.
QB: Lawrence’s passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown-to-interception ratio when not pressured are all tracking down for a second straight season.
Offense: The Jaguars average 0.67 plays of 50+ yards per game this season, trailing only the Ravens’ 0.78 mark.
Defense: Jacksonville is allowing a first down on 39.1% of passes, the second-highest rate in the league (worse: Carolina Panthers).
Fantasy: Parker Washington earned a 20% target share and racked up 103 air yards. Jacksonville is an underdog or favored by fewer than two points in seven of their final eight games, a game script that makes this waiver wire add an interesting option coming down the stretch.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 in the Jaguars’ last 13 games when being installed as a home underdog.