The Minnesota Vikings will travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10. Here’s our early pick and prediction for this matchup, with insights from our PR+ metric, which has guided us to a 16-9 record on plays over the last three weeks.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Nov. 3, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Minnesota Vikings (-5, 47) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Minnesota Vikings were far from convincing on Sunday Night Football, but they ultimately won despite their offensive missteps. The underlying metrics still tell us that this is a top-five team that is just having a tough few games coming out of the bye.
In contrast, the Jaguars are a team that cannot get out of its own way week in and week out.
The Vikings have the edge offensively and defensively, ranking 12th and third compared to 15th and 31st, respectively. Minnesota has also faced the fifth-hardest schedule to this point, while Jacksonville has had the 15th-toughest.
All the metrics tell us to take the Vikings here, but the eye test in recent weeks will rightly make people nervous with the way the offensive line is playing.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Jaguars 20
Pick: Vikings -5
Vikings at Jaguars Game Stats and Insights
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have been sacked on 10.4% of their dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league (Browns: 11.3%).
QB: After returning from an ugly London performance (14-of-31 against the Jets), Sam Darnold has completed 68-of-86 passes (79.1%).
Offense: The Vikings have been trailing for a league-low 16% of their offensive snaps (the Chargers are the only other team under 25.8% this season).
Defense: Take your shots deep – no team has seen opponents throw 15-plus yards downfield more times per game this season (9.1 per game).
Fantasy: T.J. Hockenson played only 45.1% of the snaps on Sunday, his season debut (2023: 79.6%), but he did post an 11.5-yard aDOT (2023: 7.6).
Betting: The Vikings are 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) in their 11 road games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: Jacksonville is 2-7 with five losses coming by five or fewer points.
QB: Trevor Lawrence’s passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown-to-interception ratio when not pressured are all tracking down for a second straight season.
Offense: The Jaguars average 0.67 plays of 50-plus yards per game this season, trailing only the Ravens’ 0.78 mark.
Defense: Jacksonville is allowing a first down on 39.1% of passes, the second-highest rate in the league (worse: Panthers).
Fantasy: Parker Washington earned a 20% target share and racked up 103 air yards. Jacksonville is an underdog or favored by fewer than two points in seven of their final eight games, a game script that makes this waiver wire add an interesting option coming down the stretch.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 in the Jaguars last 13 games when being installed as a home underdog.