Since arriving in Minnesota, Josh Dobbs has had a lot of success as a runner, with 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two games. But when betting player props for tonight’s game, does that mean you should be taking the over on Dobbs’ rushing yards? Let’s dive into our top Vikings vs. Broncos player prop bets, with picks for Dobbs, K.J. Osborn, Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, and Jerry Jeudy.
Top Vikings vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets To Target
Josh Dobbs Player Props
- Passing Yards: 229.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +135/Under -190)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Rushing Yards: 30.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Soppe: Josh Dobbs has been nothing short of great since joining the Vikings, and fantasy football managers are well aware of his production on the ground as well as through the air. But does it dry up this week?
He has run for 110 yards in his two games in Minnesota, but those two games came against above-average defenses in terms of QB hurry rate. The Broncos, on the other hand, force the QB to move at the second-lowest rate in the entire league.
Denver also operates at the fourth-slowest pace when on offense, making this a potentially low-possession game. Stepping in front of the Dobbs Express these days isn’t the most fun bet, but I like my chances in this matchup.
Pick: Josh Dobbs under 31.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
K.J. Osborn Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 32.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over +122/Under -165)
- Longest Reception: 16.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +375
Soppe: The Broncos ask you to take your medicine through the air for 60 minutes and are essentially betting against you in staying disciplined. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at some of their results…
- Recent wins over Jordan Love and Josh Allen
- Losses against Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Zach Wilson
Their fourth-lowest opponent aDOT suggests that they are taking this strategy to an extreme. The K.J. Osborn splits are pretty interesting when facing defenses that have a top-12 opponent aDOT when compared to all other games:
- Top 12: 10% target share, 0 games with 4+ catches, 0 games with 45+ yards
- Otherwise: 18.7% target share, 80% games with 4+ catches, 80% games with 45+ yards
For the season, Osborn’s aDOT is 25.4% lower than that of Jordan Addison, making his return from the concussion that sidelined him last week a reasonable spot to invest in.
Pick: K.J. Osborn over 30.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel), K.J. Osborn over 3.5 receptions (+124 at DraftKings)
Russell Wilson Player Props
- Passing Yards: 206.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +145/Under -210)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +140/Under -200)
- Rushing Yards: 24.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Blewis: Only two teams average fewer pass attempts per game than the Broncos — the Ravens and the 49ers, two teams with a combined 10 wins by double-digit points. Denver’s 29.1 pass attempts per game are also inflated by their 0-3 start to the season. Since then, Russell Wilson is averaging 21.7 passes per game.
A big reason for the decrease in pass attempts per game is that their defense isn’t causing them to fall behind really early in games anymore, and considering I’m on the game under for this one, Wilson to have under 27.5 pass attempts is a strongly correlated bet.
Pick: Russell Wilson under 27.5 pass attempts (-115 at ESPN BET)
Javonte Williams Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 67.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Receiving Yards: 18.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over +128/Under -175)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +110
Blewis: Javonte Williams has had 48 carries in his last two games but for just 3.4 yards per carry. In those two games, he faced the 27th and 29th-ranked defenses in yards per carry allowed. Tonight, he will be facing a Vikings run defense that is fifth in this category.
Although his usage is a bit scary here, his inefficiency combined with a stout Vikings run defense has me liking the under here.
Pick: Javonte Williams under 67.5 rushing yards (-120 at ESPN BET)
Jerry Jeudy Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 42.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
- Longest Reception: 18.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +230
Blewis: Jerry Jeudy has not been the most trustworthy wide receiver from a betting or fantasy perspective, to say the least, but this receiving yards line feels a bit too low. Last week’s three targets were a season-low and the first time all season he had less than five.
Jeudy has fallen far behind Courtland Sutton in target rate, now trailing him by 10%, but Sutton having almost four times as many targets last week certainly inflates this gap. Given the lack of volume in the passing game from the Broncos, taking Jeudy’s over for yards feels safer than receptions.
Pick: Jerry Jeudy over 42.5 receiving yards (-120 at ESPN BET)
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