A few weeks ago, you would’ve looked at a Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos game on Sunday Night Football as another terrible prime-time matchup. Now, these are two of the hottest teams in football, with the Vikings on a five-game winning streak and the Broncos having won their last three games, most recently against the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
Will the Joshua Dobbs-sanity run continue, or will the Broncos improve to .500 for the first time all season? Let’s dive into the Vikings vs. Broncos predictions and expert picks from the PFN Betting team.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Betting Lines
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Since the Vikings vs. Broncos odds came out last Sunday night, the spread has since moved in Denver’s direction while the total has remained the same. Both teams are coming off impressive Week 10 performances, but the Broncos’ win got more attention as it was on Monday Night Football to close out the week.
- Spread
Broncos -2.5 - Moneyline
Vikings +110, Broncos -130 - Total
42.5
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Predictions
Blewis: While the recent play of both quarterbacks has been getting a lot of attention, it’s the defenses that have caught my eye the most during each of their winning streaks, which is why I’m going with the under.
Let’s start with the Vikings. Despite their 13-4 record last season, they had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 31st in yards allowed per game and 25th in success rate. This season, they’re 13th and 12th in those respective categories.
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Their improvement isn’t attributed much to personnel because, if anything, their talent on defense is worse than last season. It is largely due to the coaching of new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Schematically, the biggest change has been that they’re blitzing on nearly half the snaps defensively, up 30% from last season.
The Broncos, meanwhile, since giving up 70 points to the Dolphins, have maintained a league-average defense. Considering they were on pace to be the worst defense in NFL history, this improvement is pretty significant.
This pick is also a sell-high for both starting quarterbacks. Dobbs followed up his impressive Vikings debut with another strong performance last week, and Russell Wilson has quietly thrown for six touchdowns and zero interceptions during their winning streak.
But I’m still not completely sold on the consistency from either of these guys, and when the hype is this high, it feels like a good time to fade them.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-105 at ESPN BET)
Bearman: A month ago, this game wouldn’t have mattered at all. The Vikings were 1-4, the Broncos were 1-5, and both teams were looking for the escape hatch.
Neither team has lost since, and they’re each on the edge of the playoff race. I believe more in Dobbs’ magic and what the Vikings are doing than the Broncos’ revival, so my pick for this one will be on the road team outright.
Pick: Vikings ML (+120 at ESPN BET)
Soppe: Dobbs has been nothing short of great since joining the Vikings, and fantasy football managers are well aware of his production on the ground as well as through the air. But does it dry up this week?
He has run for 110 yards in his two games in Minnesota, but those two games came against above-average defenses in terms of QB hurry rate. The Broncos, on the other hand, force the QB to move at the second-lowest rate in the entire league.
Denver also operates at the fourth-slowest pace when on offense, making this a potentially low-possession game. Stepping in front of the Dobbs Express these days isn’t the most fun bet, but I like my chances in this matchup.
Pick: Joshua Dobbs under 31.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: The Broncos ask you to take your medicine through the air for 60 minutes and are essentially betting against you in staying disciplined. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at some of their results…
- Recent wins over Jordan Love and Josh Allen
- Losses against Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Zach Wilson
Their fourth-lowest opponent aDOT suggests that they are taking this strategy to an extreme. The K.J. Osborn splits are pretty interesting when facing defenses that have a top-12 opponent aDOT when compared to all other games:
- Top 12: 10% target share, 0 games with 4+ catches, 0 games with 45+ yards
- Otherwise: 18.7% target share, 80% games with 4+ catches, 80% games with 45+ yards
For the season, Osborn’s aDOT is 25.4% lower than that of Jordan Addison, making his return from the concussion that sidelined him last week a reasonable spot to invest in.
Pick: K.J. Osborn over 31.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings), K.J. Osborn over 3.5 receptions (+124 at DraftKings)
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