The Minnesota Vikings will face the Chicago Bears in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings and Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Minnesota Vikings Start-Sit Advice
Sam Darnold, QB
Are we nearing pumpkin time for Sam Darnold? He’s earned a below-average grade over the past two weeks per our QB+ grading metric, and while the fantasy box line looked fine last week (QB9, thanks in part to a sneak touchdown), the advanced numbers suggest that some regression is already taking place.
The Bears rank second in pressure rate since Week 5 (41.7% of dropbacks; league average: 34%), a strength that has given Darnold issues at times. A QB reached 14.5 fantasy points against the Bears just three times this season, and that trio of signal callers averaged 4.9 fantasy points with their legs.
Maybe Darnold can rediscover his form when December starts (Cardinals and Falcons in Weeks 13-14), but I’m not at all comfortable slotting him into one-QB lineups right now.
Aaron Jones, RB
It took some time, but the preseason fades of Aaron Jones seem to be coming to fruition. The veteran back has now gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush or a score on the ground (72 attempts), fueling production that sits 32.2% below expectation over that stretch.
Jones had a chance to score last week but couldn’t cash in from the 1-yard line, a drive Sam Darnold ultimately finished with a sneak.
This could be viewed as a get-right spot, as the Bears allow the fifth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs this season (4.9). Plus, the Vikings figure to be playing with a lead, which I don’t disagree with.
Minnesota does, however, continue to flirt with Cam Akers (he handled an entire first-half drive last week and scored in the third quarter). And with this offense more grounded of late (19 points per game over their past four), any semblance of a committee situation could render all involved useless.
With six teams on a bye this week, Jones grades as an RB2 for me this week and is a viable starter. However, I’d be nervous for the stretch run if I’m counting on him consistently (not a top-25 RB in three of his past four games), even with a reasonably light schedule ahead.
Cam Akers, RB
Cam Akers hasn’t been efficient of late (23 carries for 63 yards over the past two weeks), but he does have a 10+ yard run in three straight and added a three-yard touchdown catch last week against the Titans — his first trip to the end zone since being traded.
I’m not here to tell you that Akers holds standalone value (I’m not positive that the starter in Minnesota holds significant value right now), but if you want to bet against Aaron Jones coming down the stretch of the season — a stance I took on draft day and remain committed to — Akers is the path to do so.
- Week 13 vs. Cardinals
- Week 14 vs. Falcons
- Week 15 vs. Bears
- Week 16 at Seahawks
- Week 17 vs. Packers
Nothing in that closing schedule scares me. I’d have Akers ranked as a top-20 running back if something were to happen to Jones, which is why he deserves to be rostered, even if there is no immediate utility.
Jordan Addison, WR
Cramps resulted in Jordan Addison departing Minnesota’s Week 11 win early, though the hope is that the second-year receiver will be fine entering this weekend. He was able to get you paid last week courtesy of a 47-yard score in the first quarter — stop me if you’ve heard that before.
For his career, over 44% of Addison’s PPR fantasy points have come on touchdowns. That’s not the most stable of profiles, but in this spot, assuming health, I have no issue if you want to go back to him as a Flex option.
This season, the Bears own the fourth-highest opponent average depth of receiver target this season; defenses are looking to challenge them vertically, and we know Addison is more than capable of doing just that. As long as you acknowledge the risk involved, this is a spot you can justify rolling the dice, be it in DFS or season-long.
Justin Jefferson, WR
The downward pointing arrow on Sam Darnold is less than ideal, and if you want to drop Justin Jefferson from WR2 to WR8, be my guest — it doesn’t really matter. He hasn’t scored in four straight games (and in five of six after scoring in all four September games), but with full health and eight straight games with at least eight targets, there’s no action that needs to be taken.
Jefferson has a reception of 25+ yards in nine of 10 games and is as good a bet as there is in the NFL to take your breath away with a single play. I’m electing to pay up for star running backs in DFS this week, so that’s how I’m fading Minnesota’s star this weekend.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
That’s now two dud performances in three weeks back from injury for T.J. Hockenson. And while I still think there’s a role to be had here, I can’t help but be nervous that he’s not being extended.
- Week 9 vs. Colts: 45.1% snap share
- Week 10 at Jaguars: 46.3% snap share
- Week 11 at Titans: 44.8% snap share
Is it possible that Hockenson missed the peaks of the Sam Darnold roller coaster and is joining the ride at the worst possible time? It’s possible, though I don’t think what we saw over the weekend is sustainable.
In the win over the Titans, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison saw the majority of targets with the remaining 46.7% being spread pretty evenly among eight Vikings players. That’s how you get to a 10% target share for one of the better players at his position in the league.
I don’t think Addison earns looks at the rate we saw on Sunday, and I find it unlikely that we get that little target clarity again.
In leagues with a deadline coming up and a team in good shape, I’d be circling a desperate Hockenson manager and trying to poach him (the bye week is in the rearview and the remaining schedule can be navigated).
Chicago Bears Start-Sit Advice
Caleb Williams, QB
We are getting breadcrumbs when it comes to the pedigree of Caleb Williams.
OK, more like a singular crumb. The man hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the USA since Week 5, so let’s not get carried away; but with over 45 rushing yards in three of his past five, there are signs of a plan when it comes to his path to fantasy stardom.
Williams shouldn’t be near redraft rosters right now, and I don’t expect that to change, but you can mark this down. I’ll be in on him next season after having a full season to adjust to the speed of the pro game and work with his talented nucleus.
D’Andre Swift, RB
The Bears are struggling, and Roschon Johnson is getting the goal-line work, yet nothing can slow the production machine that is D’Andre Swift.
He cashed in a carry from 39 yards out last weekend, the type of splash play that has become commonplace for a running back who has produced 7.4% over expectation over his past five games despite the shortcomings of everyone around him. As productive as Swift has been (three top-20 finishes over his past four games), I can’t shake this feeling of uncertainty this week.
Remove that long touchdown last week and we are looking at a player with 45 carries for 142 yards in November (3.16 yards per carry). After the first two weeks this season where opposing defenses were trying to gauge what to think of Caleb Williams, Swift has run into a loaded box on 32.8% of his carries, a trend that the aggressive Vikings figure to extend.
Speaking of Minnesota, its crowding of the line of scrimmage has helped fuel the top-rated run defense by success rate. They’ve allowed just 1.4 RB runs of 10+ yards per game this season (tied for the third-fewest), and if the splash play is less likely to be landed by Swift, we are looking at an uphill battle with Chicago as a home underdog.
Swift’s touch floor makes him a starter in just about every season-long format, but I have no interest in plugging him into DFS lineups and wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to start two backs ahead of him (Brian Robinson Jr. and Rico Dowdle are the two I have ranked just ahead of him for Week 12).
Roschon Johnson, RB
For whatever reason, touchdown vultures aren’t as prevalent as they have been in years past.
I take that back. Vulture running backs aren’t as prevalent. Vulture quarterbacks are now all the rage, but the Bears seem hesitant to put Caleb Williams in harm’s way like that, and that has opened the door for Roschon Johnson to carve out a role that has the eye of fantasy managers.
Three players have at least five rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line this season: Jalen Hurts (eight), David Montgomery (five), and Johnson (five).
I’m never going to rank Johnson as a top-30 player; the touch count just doesn’t grade well and banking on an offense stalling inside the five-yard line is a dangerous game to play, but this is a player I want on my roster.
If you’ve played fantasy football for any length of time, you know that there will be a week where you are grasping for straws. You’ll be searching the wire for a six-touch running back or a speedy receiver who, at best, is looking at three targets.
In spots like that, Johnson is perfect, as a six-point carry stands to rank him over those other options. We are looking at a roster-construction play rather than one for whom you look at Week 12’s fantasy rankings for encouragement.
DJ Moore, WR
Week 11 was DJ Moore’s fourth top-30 finish of the season, but it required perfection from an imperfect quarterback. Against the Packers, Caleb Williams was 7-of-7 when throwing to Moore and 66.7% to everyone else.
I want to be encouraged by what we saw last week, but I’m more concerned about the larger profile and its trajectory:
- Weeks 1-5: 21.9% on-field target share, 9.4 aDOT
- Weeks 6-11: 16% on-field target share, 7.5 aDOT
When looking at a set of data like that, you expect target share and aDOT to be inversely correlated. That, however, isn’t the case here, as Moore’s target upside is trending down, and his ability to earn those looks is moving in the wrong direction.
Case in point? Moore had a 100% catch rate and led the team in receptions last week. Yet, he was outscored by Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the week — who ranked fifth for the Saints last week in receptions.
That’s an extreme example, but the point remains. Moore had a total of six air yards last week, and that’s a tough way to make a living.
In Chicago, I prefer Rome Odunze to Moore, and for this week, I like the specific matchups of Quentin Johnston and Jalen Coker over him as well.
Keenan Allen, WR
You’re being silly if you are holding out hope on Keenan Allen at this point.
Anything could happen, but we are in the business of using stats and trends to predict the future. In that vein, there’s nothing suggesting that Allen is anything more than a name you know from past production than a legitimate asset.
The veteran receiver hasn’t posted a 23% on-field target share since the season opener, has scored in one game this season, and has yet to hit 50 yards in a game. You’re overthinking it if you still have Allen rostered. What would he have to do to work his way into your starting lineup the rest of the way?
For me, we’ve crossed the threshold — there’s nothing I could see that would make me feel good about him, and that means I’m burning a roster spot by keeping him.
Rome Odunze, WR
Rome Odunze is coming off his second double-digit target day of his young career, and it helped him clear 100 air yards for the third time in four weeks. There is a foundation being laid in Chicago, and I like the prospects of their rookie receiver being a big part of things, it’s just a matter of whether it comes in 2024 or 2025.
With just one top-30 finish since September, outwardly trusting Odunze is a tough sell. With that understanding, I don’t think you’re crazy in considering him as a high-upside Flex or a DFS building block this weekend given his price point. The Vikings allow a league-high 5.2 receiver receptions of 15+ yards per game, and with an end-zone target in seven of his past nine games, one chunk play might be all it takes.
There’s certainly the risk of a floor week if Caleb Williams struggles against Minnesota’s exotic blitz packages — that needs to be considered. I’ve got Odunze ranked in the mid-30s at the position, with other boom/bust candidates like Christian Watson and Quentin Johnston.
Cole Kmet, TE
If we can’t count on any of the receivers in Chicago under Caleb Williams, how are we supposed to commit to its tight end? During the current four-game losing streak, Cole Kmet has turned 126 routes into just eight low-upside targets, making him an afterthought in all formats.
The Bears tanked Kmet’s slot usage in the loss to the Packers last week, taking away the efficient targets from a profile that already carries very little scoring equity. Kmet is my lowest-ranked TE who is consistently on the field. I’d rather stream Chig Okonkwo or Ja’Tavion Sanders this week (and moving forward) if pushed.